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BleedTheClock's Top 50 List: 2018


BleedTheClock

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23 minutes ago, VanS said:

He was out of shape most of the year.  It would only cloud your judgment as to what type of player he will be.  As long as he's in shape for the combine and looks like his 2016 self, then that's the only tape I need to watch.

And given the fact you stopped reading there, I'm sure you read the part about how Mingo and Key aren't even remotely similar physically.  Arden Key is likely 2 inches taller and 25 lbs heavier.  That comp just doesn't fit other than them being from the same school.

But players are people, not just raw stat machines. Key may never regain his 2016 form. It's important to review both good and bad tape. If he has commitment or health issues, there's a chance that 2017 Key may be the same version you get in the pros. And, really, if every player lived up to their peak, then scouting would be easy: just pull up a highlight reel and take the guy who is most impressive. But that's obviously not the case (unless they're Kamara; I'll give you that one). The full picture here shows that Key lacks any sophistication or variation in his rush. He appears disinterested against the run, and he doesn't show any development of technique. Essentially, if he's not the fastest linemen on the field, then he's nearly useless. I highly doubt that he is such a transcendent athlete that the NFL tackles will consistently struggle to keep up with his outside speed.

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On 2/14/2018 at 1:09 PM, BleedTheClock said:

3.       Denzel Ward/CB/Ohio State (89 Overall)---Another effortless mover. Speed to run with any NFL player. Agility to cover snappy route runners. Good tackler. Excellent ball skills. Scheme versatile. Has a lot of experience in press man. Not many flaws outside of his size.

NFL Comparison: Jason Verrett

I see Denzel Ward closer to Dunta Robinson in comparison.

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On 2/16/2018 at 12:01 PM, VanS said:

He was out of shape most of the year.  It would only cloud your judgment as to what type of player he will be.  As long as he's in shape for the combine and looks like his 2016 self, then that's the only tape I need to watch.

And given the fact you stopped reading there, I'm sure you read the part about how Mingo and Key aren't even remotely similar physically.  Arden Key is likely 2 inches taller and 25 lbs heavier.  That comp just doesn't fit other than them being from the same school.

It seems weird to be leaning on that 25lbs difference in size, while simultaneously claiming Key was out of shape playing that way, so that tape doesn't matter.  How much of that 25lbs difference was actually good weight?

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On 2/14/2018 at 11:09 AM, BleedTheClock said:

BleedTheClock’s Early Top 50 Player List:

14.   Bradley Chubb/DE/NC State (84 Overall)---Good overall talent. Not the greatest athlete, but he has great technique and gives constant effort. Finds lanes to the QB in multiple ways. Plays the run well and bats down passes. Solid but unspectacular pass rusher with a very low floor.

NFL Comparison: William Hayes

 

It's an interesting list.  I don't necessarily agree with a lot of it, but it was a good read and some different takes on a few guys that made me think a bit.

This one though, i'm guessing you meant "with a very high floor"?  Or am i misreading the rest of that?  I don't mind sliding Chubb a bit, and for similar reasons to what you've outlined there.  I share some of those reservations.  But i'd typically view that as a "high floor", but "low ceiling" player.  Chubb's "floor" seems really safe to me.

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6 hours ago, Tugboat said:

It seems weird to be leaning on that 25lbs difference in size, while simultaneously claiming Key was out of shape playing that way, so that tape doesn't matter.  How much of that 25lbs difference was actually good weight?

Arden Key looked bigger than Mingo in 2016 when he was a beast.  Last year he lost good weight and gained bad weight which is why I said he was out of shape.  I don't think the 25 lbs difference was all bad weight he gained from 2016 to 2017. 

 

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12 hours ago, VanS said:

Arden Key looked bigger than Mingo in 2016 when he was a beast.  Last year he lost good weight and gained bad weight which is why I said he was out of shape.  I don't think the 25 lbs difference was all bad weight he gained from 2016 to 2017. 

 

That's probably true.  Doubt it's all bad weight.  But some of it seems bound to be.  Just a weird double standard argument to suggest his heavier weight is a big +, while using fitness problems to disregard his draft year tape. 

He also has better game on tape than Mingo ever did, but you can't just completely brush off a guy going into his draft year and laying an egg due to fitness problems.  Talent and physical gifts are great, but work ethic and drive to be the best they can be are the difference between plenty of All Pros and Busts.

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8 hours ago, ninjapirate said:

You think someone is a better brian dawkins but he isn't your highest rated prospect? How does that make any sense.

He's not quite as good as Brian Dawkins as a run defender. He misses a few tackles where I don't ever remember Dawkins whiffing in his prime. He's more athletic and seems more capable of playing FS and covering deep than Dawkins. Saquon Barkley and Quinton Nelson have astronomical grades. Denzel Ward has flawless marks for his coverage, speed, and overall football instincts.

 

Besides, Brian Dawkins and the Eagles franchise in general is overrated. Come talk to me once you guys have actually won something.

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7 hours ago, Tugboat said:

That's probably true.  Doubt it's all bad weight.  But some of it seems bound to be.  Just a weird double standard argument to suggest his heavier weight is a big +, while using fitness problems to disregard his draft year tape

He also has better game on tape than Mingo ever did, but you can't just completely brush off a guy going into his draft year and laying an egg due to fitness problems.  Talent and physical gifts are great, but work ethic and drive to be the best they can be are the difference between plenty of All Pros and Busts.

I'm of the mindset that Arden Key was roughly 6'6" 250+ lbs in 2016 when he was a beast on tape.  He always looked bigger than Mingo to me which is why I'm not buying that comparison.

I'm brushing off the 2017 season because he was coming back from injury which resulted in getting out of shape.

 

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On 2/16/2018 at 2:30 PM, reamer said:

But players are people, not just raw stat machines. Key may never regain his 2016 form. It's important to review both good and bad tape. If he has commitment or health issues, there's a chance that 2017 Key may be the same version you get in the pros. And, really, if every player lived up to their peak, then scouting would be easy: just pull up a highlight reel and take the guy who is most impressive. But that's obviously not the case (unless they're Kamara; I'll give you that one). The full picture here shows that Key lacks any sophistication or variation in his rush. He appears disinterested against the run, and he doesn't show any development of technique. Essentially, if he's not the fastest linemen on the field, then he's nearly useless. I highly doubt that he is such a transcendent athlete that the NFL tackles will consistently struggle to keep up with his outside speed.

Disagree with all three points unfortunately:

- Lacks any sophistication or variation of rush: Disagree, extensive film shows otherwise 

- Appears disinterested against the run: Disagree, the one thing he improved on the most this year, go watch Alabama game, did a great job setting the edge, the one run they broke came inside of him which is LB's responsibility

- He's not the fastest lineman on the field: Disagree, not going to go too much into this. Ill just say that there has been times where he got off the ball so fast that there have been linemen that didn't lay a single finger nail on him because of fast he exploded out of his stance.

 

There are plenty areas to critique Key but I doubt these are areas you start with 

 

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50 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

- Appears disinterested against the run: Disagree, the one thing he improved on the most this year, go watch Alabama game, did a great job setting the edge, the one run they broke came inside of him which is LB's responsibility

 

I was going to specifically bring up the Alabama game also. Key played really well in that game, specifically against the run versus a physical offense that likes to pound the ball. Bama's 3.22 YPC was their worst of the season.

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On 2/14/2018 at 1:09 PM, BleedTheClock said:

9.       Calvin Ridley/WR/Alabama (86 Overall)---Underrated due to terrible QB play. Runs great routes. Has vertical speed. Has lateral speed and RAC ability. Catches the ball at a high rate. Lacks bulk and great collegiate production. Makes contested catches. Clutch.

NFL Comparison: Stefon Diggs

Calvin Ridley - Nelson Agholor 

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50 minutes ago, Shylo3716 said:

Calvin Ridley - Nelson Agholor 

This is actually spot on, which is why I think Ridley belongs as more of a 2nd rounder than 1st. Agholor struggled at first coming in as the 20th overall pick but did well this year being allowed to work as a slot guy with Jeffrey as the #1 and Torrey Smith is a field stretcher. Ridley struggles in contested situations downfield which makes me very apprehensive of using a 1st on him.

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