RandyMossIsBoss Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 So I was re-watching the NFCC and a few times they mentioned that dome teams are 0-12 in conference championship games when playing on the road. It's a bit of a trivial observation with a small sample size, and also heavily biased (by virtue of being on the road, these dome teams are the lower seed, and thus probably the inferior team to begin with). The theory for it being a real phenomenon and not a coincidence, at least I would guess, is that in the playoffs, especially by the time the CC roles around, it is going to be colder outside and dome teams are simply not accustomed to the effects of less than ideal weather the same way these outdoor teams are. Now what makes this extra interesting is that dome teams haven't just lost in these games, they've been utterly dominated more often than not. With the Eagles win, dome teams are now 0-13 on the road in CCGs, and here are the results. 38-7, Vikings at Eagles (+3) 2017, 47° 49-15, Cardinals at Panthers (-3) 2015, 39° 45-7, Colts at Patriots (-7) 2014, 51° 39-14, Saints at Bears (-3) 2006, 28° 27-10, Falcons at Eagles (-6) 2004, 17° 24-14, Colts at Patriots (-3.5) 2003, 32° 41-0, Vikings at Giants (+1) 2000, 35° 20-16, Colts at Steelers (-11) 1995, 36° 41-10, Lions at Redskins 1991 (-14), 40° 17-10, Vikings at Redskins (-3) 1987, 35° 30-14, Seahawks at Raiders (-7) 1983, 56° 27-13, Oilers at Steelers (-9.5) 1979, 18° 34-5, Oilers at Steelers (-7) 1978, 25° On average, dome teams have been beaten by a score of 33 to 11, in 35° weather, being 5 point underdogs. What do you think; coincidence or a real thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLF54927 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 The 91 Redskins would have shredded the Lions at the Silverdome as well. Probably the most complete team I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TecmoSuperJoe Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I never thought much about dome teams in the playoffs and weather. You have guys drafted from all over the country that played in various conditions. Or players from other teams. Even at 0-12 in championship games I wouldn't make much of it. Winning on the road is hard enough as it is. A lot of those teams that won were just simply better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apparition Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Real thing. Dome teams just don't have the necessary conditioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Seems to me that just looking at CCGs is unnecessarily limiting the sample size. It's true that on average CCGs will be against harder competition, but I don't think it's significant enough to have to limit the sample size that much. I'd look at all playoff games where a dome team is on the road vs. an outdoor team and compare that to 1) playoff games where a dome team is on the road vs. another dome team; 2) playoff games where a warm-weather outdoor team is on the road vs. a cold-weather outdoor team; and 3) all other playoff games. Might give you a better idea of exactly how much effect the weather has. That's quite a bit of work, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Another thing to keep in mind: Wind speed might be as big, if not bigger, a factor as weather in dome teams playing outside. IDK if you can find that data for each game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Of course it's a real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 11:09 AM, childofpudding said: Seems to me that just looking at CCGs is unnecessarily limiting the sample size. It's true that on average CCGs will be against harder competition, but I don't think it's significant enough to have to limit the sample size that much. I'd look at all playoff games where a dome team is on the road vs. an outdoor team and compare that to 1) playoff games where a dome team is on the road vs. another dome team; 2) playoff games where a warm-weather outdoor team is on the road vs. a cold-weather outdoor team; and 3) all other playoff games. Might give you a better idea of exactly how much effect the weather has. That's quite a bit of work, though. So I looked at all playoff games where a dome team traveled outdoors, and while they do perform worse than expected, there appears to be no correlation between temperature or wind and winning. Season Dome Team Opponent Away Score Home Score Dif Line Temp Wind W L W-L% 2015 Cardinals Panthers 15 49 -34 3 39 4 0 1 2014 Cardinals Panthers 23 27 -4 6.5 51 6 0 1 2008 Cardinals Panthers 33 13 20 10 45 10 1 0 2014 Colts Broncos 24 13 11 7 40 7 1 0 2014 Colts Patriots 7 45 -38 7 51 15 0 1 2013 Colts Patriots 22 43 -21 7 57 18 0 1 2012 Colts Ravens 9 24 -15 7 49 8 0 1 2008 Colts Chargers 17 23 -6 -2.5 53 8 0 1 2006 Colts Ravens 15 6 9 4 63 4 1 0 2004 Colts Patriots 3 20 -17 1 25 7 0 1 2003 Colts Chiefs 38 31 7 3 51 13 1 0 2003 Colts Patriots 14 24 -10 3.5 32 2 0 1 2002 Colts Jets 0 41 -41 6 35 10 0 1 2000 Colts Dolphins 17 23 -6 -1.5 59 12 0 1 1996 Colts Steelers 14 42 -28 8 56 12 0 1 1995 Colts Chiefs 10 7 3 8 11 8 1 0 1995 Colts Chargers 35 20 15 5.5 57 5 1 0 1995 Colts Steelers 16 20 -4 11 36 13 0 1 1987 Colts Browns 21 38 -17 8 16 8 0 1 2014 Cowboys Packers 21 26 -5 6 24 0 0 1 2017 Falcons Rams 26 13 13 6.5 62 3 1 0 2017 Falcons Eagles 10 15 -5 -2.5 32 16 0 1 2011 Falcons Giants 2 24 -22 3 44 12 0 1 2004 Falcons Eagles 10 27 -17 6 17 26 0 1 2002 Falcons Packers 27 7 20 6.5 31 5 1 0 2002 Falcons Eagles 6 20 -14 7.5 29 10 0 1 1995 Falcons Packers 20 37 -17 9.5 30 4 0 1 2016 Lions Seahawks 6 26 -20 8 38 7 0 1 1999 Lions Redskins 13 27 -14 6 45 10 0 1 1997 Lions Bucs 10 20 -10 3 49 11 0 1 1995 Lions Eagles 37 58 -21 -3 30 7 0 1 1994 Lions Packers 12 16 -4 4.5 32 7 0 1 1991 Lions Redskins 10 41 -31 14 40 8 0 1 1983 Lions 49ers 23 24 -1 7.5 56 10 0 1 1982 Lions Redskins 7 31 -24 6 44 11 0 1 1992 Oilers Bills 38 41 -3 2 34 14 0 1 1991 Oilers Broncos 24 26 -2 3.5 30 7 0 1 1990 Oilers Bengals 14 41 -27 3.5 38 8 0 1 1988 Oilers Browns 24 23 1 3 38 11 1 0 1988 Oilers Bills 10 17 -7 3.5 28 8 0 1 1987 Oilers Broncos 10 34 -24 10 28 9 0 1 1980 Oilers Raiders 7 27 -20 -1 51 5 0 1 1979 Oilers Steelers 13 27 -14 9.5 18 18 0 1 1979 Oilers Chargers 17 14 3 8 60 8 1 0 1978 Oilers Dolphins 17 9 8 6.5 77 12 1 0 1978 Oilers Patriots 31 14 17 6 36 8 1 0 1978 Oilers Steelers 5 34 -29 7 25 8 0 1 1969 Oilers Raiders 7 56 -49 0 61 17 0 1 2004 Rams Seahawks 27 20 7 4 45 9 1 0 2013 Saints Eagles 26 24 2 3 25 5 1 0 2013 Saints Seahawks 15 23 -8 9 48 20 0 1 2011 Saints 49ers 32 36 -4 -3.5 62 2 0 1 2010 Saints Seahawks 36 41 -5 -10 40 8 0 1 2006 Saints Bears 14 39 -25 3 28 10 0 1 1990 Saints Bears 6 16 -10 6.5 21 13 0 1 1988 Seahawks Bengals 13 21 -8 6.5 32 7 0 1 1984 Seahawks Dolphins 10 31 -21 5.5 75 17 0 1 1983 Seahawks Dolphins 27 20 7 8 51 18 1 0 1983 Seahawks Raiders 14 30 -16 7 56 6 0 1 2016 Texans Patriots 16 34 -18 16 28 6 0 1 2012 Texans Patriots 28 41 -13 9.5 51 10 0 1 2011 Texans Ravens 13 20 -7 8 31 7 0 1 2017 Vikings Eagles 7 38 -31 -3 47 5 0 1 2012 Vikings Packers 10 24 -14 11 29 9 0 1 2004 Vikings Packers 31 17 14 6 26 4 1 0 2004 Vikings Eagles 14 27 -13 8 31 16 0 1 2000 Vikings Giants 0 41 -41 -1 35 5 0 1 1997 Vikings Giants 23 22 1 4.5 39 10 1 0 1997 Vikings 49ers 22 38 -16 11.5 54 13 0 1 1996 Vikings Cowboys 15 40 -25 10 54 13 0 1 1993 Vikings Giants 10 17 -7 6.5 20 21 0 1 1989 Vikings 49ers 13 41 -28 7.5 49 9 0 1 1988 Vikings 49ers 9 34 -25 3.5 43 9 0 1 1987 Vikings 49ers 36 24 12 11 52 8 1 0 1987 Vikings Redskins 10 17 -7 3 35 10 0 1 1982 Vikings Redskins 7 21 -14 6 40 12 0 1 Total 16.8 27.4 -10.6 5.4 41 10 18 58 23.7% 18-58 record, so 23.7% win rate. Away teams in the playoffs since 1969, not including this sample, have a 124-237 record, giving them a 34.3% win rate. That means dome teams on the road outdoors have lost ~45% more of the time than outdoor teams on the road. It does seem too much to be coincidental, but again, the factors one would suspect, temperature and wind, don't seem to hold much weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDez Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I don't remember much about that 2000 Vikings/Giants game. Wth happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UtahUtesFan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I think it's a real thing, especially in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ninjapirate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 What is the winning percentage of away teams going into domes I wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddyboy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Domes generally have turf instead of grass, or a hybrid. Makes for a faster game, better footing. Outdoors on grass with wind gusting, icy conditions, different game. Dome teams select different skill players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLambert58 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 21 hours ago, DirtyDez said: I don't remember much about that 2000 Vikings/Giants game. Wth happened? The original gate ldo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 What is the record of warm weather teams in the cold? The Vikings can at least practice outside in the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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