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FM30's Draft Thread


flyingmonkey30

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1 minute ago, WizardHawk said:

Game is changing so maybe there is some hope. But, there has to be difference. Brees, Russell, Taylor....that's 3 in the 6' neighborhood. When was the last one before those guys with any success? Flutie?  

Don't get me wrong. Mayfield's confidence and some of that "it" factor is off the charts. I'm just not one to bet on such long odds. If I were a GM, I'd be hard pressed to bet my high pick on him. For whatever reasons, NFL simply isn't geared towards short QBs and there is decades worth of proof. 

See, you have a point that older style passers were all taller. But back then, the immobile statue passer from the pocket was the only athlete people ever viewed as draftable. Not many were drafted unless they fit a very specific mold.

And back then, standing in place and making a progression of reads was all a QB really did. Now, we have real athletes at QB, of all varying heights and shapes - because systems have changed so much. You also cant abuse a QB like you could back then, so the less physical, shorter guys are more free to set up and throw without getting beaten up.

You are right, times have changed. But there is also a changing concept of what is the mold to fit at QB. Most no longer seek that tall statue, but want that more athletic guy who can manipulate a pocket, escape a pocket, or move the chains with their legs. 

And the system changes show this too. Screens of all kinds are far more prominent. There are fewer 30 yard routes being run and far more short YAC minded routes. There are also many more plays called that put the pocket on the perimeter instead of in the tackle box.

Even when Mayfield drops straight back, he is fast to set up the proper lane and keeps his eyes down field. It is quite similar to Brees at Purdue, where his height was not a problem because he adapted his game to allow for the proper angle and set up to see the field and throw through the passing lane. 

Im with FM30, obvioisly - Mayfield is my #1 passer.

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49 minutes ago, WizardHawk said:

Think most expected or know Orlando Brown wasn't going to put up great athletic numbers or get by on athletic ability....but he put up some really bad numbers. Like lowest in Combine history low. How far you see him falling? I don't think a huge free fall is out of the question

I think he could fall similar to when TJ Clemmings dropped a couple years back. Personally, I'd move him down my rankings a little, but nothing significant. He wins with his length, and that's not changing. But like you said, I knew he wasn't going to test well, I just didn't anticipate him being literally historically bad

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36 minutes ago, Dallas94Ware said:

What do you see in Rosen that makes him your #2, ahead of Darnold? Darnold is far more complete and  a safer option, albeit doesnt show much for stardom. But there is something to be said for the less exciting, more complete player.

Rosen has the makings of a high effeciency passer and continually finds a way to pull things out of nowhere. Its exciting and he has good star potential...but he is also the less "safer" pick of the two Id think.

I kind of view it as something similar to Peyton vs Ryan in the late 90s. NOT THAT either willbe a Leaf or a Manning, haha. But that a lot of people favored the exciting prospects of a higher ceiling guy of Leaf over the safer Peyton selection, to the point Indy was chastized for picking Peyton. Obviously it worked out great for them, and again who knows hkw these two will end up 5 years from now...but the situation is similar.

I definitely see that. Darnold's ball security is a huge concern for me, number one. I also like Rosen more mechanically. I think Rosen's biggest weakness is his over-confidence in his arm sometimes. But he's super smart, super talented, and has some Matt Ryan to his game. It's not really a knock on Darnold all that much, I just really like Rosen.

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9 minutes ago, flyingmonkey30 said:

I definitely see that. Darnold's ball security is a huge concern for me, number one. I also like Rosen more mechanically. I think Rosen's biggest weakness is his over-confidence in his arm sometimes. But he's super smart, super talented, and has some Matt Ryan to his game. It's not really a knock on Darnold all that much, I just really like Rosen.

Yeah Id say that is pretty fair. I just like the safer bet. To me, Darnold is a lot like a Stafford or Eli, the all around has all the tools pro ready guy who can lead a team day 1 but may never be the team carrying star. Its safe and you can win rings with him leading the right team. Whereas Rosen has far more star potential but also is not a safe bet to reach that potential. I think if he goes to a bad team, his bust potential is through the roof - if he goes #1 to Cleveland, Id feel really bad for him.

Rosen to me is similar to Chad Pennington. That accurate, quality mechanics, high efficiency guy. If he is given a chance to develop and doesnt have to play for bad team right away, I think he will be, like Pennington, one of the best in all time history with red zone TD-INT ratios and red zone td efficiency. His short area tight window accuracy is really good. Its why K see star potential in him. 

And yes, while saying Pennington may conjure up some bad memories of laughable throwing and failures, lets not forget how accurate and efficient he was before multiple shoulder surgeries derailed his career. Also, he got stuck playing for the Jets and the Dolphins...not exactly teams capable of helping him play well ;)

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6 minutes ago, plan9misfit said:

Rosen’s arm is much better than Pennington’s ever was, but their mental games are very similar.

Their short area effeciency/accuracy and tight window anticipation are almost identical as well. 

That ability to throw a ball in such a small opening without relying on ripping it Favre style, and instead timing it well and placing it with perfect anticipation is far harder to defend against than the "just throwing a laser" way of getting it done...and is quite a special trait.

Mariota had this trait as well, but didnt display it nearly as consistently as Rosen (Or Chad P.)

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4 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Why are you so hung up on the safer QB prospect, D94W? You liked Lynch over Goff and Wentz.

Not hung up on Darnold,but you make a poor comparison because neither Goff nor Wentz were a safe, polished option like Darnold. 

Darnold can (should, anyway) start day one and help a team compete for win. He comes in and is already a good player, with a need for experience, but comes in right away and is already capable and possibly pretty good. 

Rosen could do the sane, maybe, but I dont see it. I see a huge amount of risk in him. Even at his best so far, I dont see him in the same tier as Darnold for at least a while.

I like Darnold and what he brings. He may not be something special, but that safe bet of a guy who can just play football, at his position, is a really nice thing in todays age.

As for Lynch - I liked the traits. All three had big bust potential, and while I still say watch the longevity of both Carson and Jared before crowning them as something special, Lynch's traits, had he been given the time to learn and develop, would have been something very special i think. But, as typical with guys like this (and as will be the case with Allen, and possibly Rosen) he was thrust into battle far too soon, had far too much expected of him, and was never given the chance he deserved. As much as I like J. Allen, his career is probably going to the same direction.

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  • 3 weeks later...
8 minutes ago, flyingmonkey30 said:

Alright, took longer than I wanted, but I have a solid base of rankings here. Feel free to ask questions or request reports. I'll keep working on this up through the draft, and spend extra time on whoever we end up taking.

Could you also post your big-board? How many 1st round grades do you have?

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11 hours ago, Texas_OutLaw7 said:

Could you also post your big-board? How many 1st round grades do you have?

Sure, I think about 15 solid first round grades and then a few 1-2 as well.

9 minutes ago, WizardHawk said:

No changes in your offensive rankings over last 5 weeks? 

There are, I’ll update that as well. I’ve been tinkering with the receiver rankings the most, already having gone back and watched those guys again.

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