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Players who might regress on your team this season


ET80

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Hope springs eternal right about now - everyone is undefeated, everyone has a better command of the playbook, everyone really hit the weights and came in looking better than ever. We've heard the tropes, yearly. However, the reality is, there are a few guys who simply won't show up this upcoming season. Who is it on your team?

For the Texans, I got the following:

RB Lamar Miller: I think everyone looks at the numbers and assumes Miller had a good season. Reality is, he was wildly inconsistent through the year (a lot of that had to do with injuries, and a lot of that can be chalked up to miscasting him as a between the T runner). Not sure the injury bug won't be a factor this year, but I'm in belief Miller won't be slammed into the line 20+ times a game. Bold prediction says he won't break 1,000 yards this season.

OLB Whitney Mercilius: This one seems like a shocker, but given what the Texans will be deploying on a pass rush with Jadevion Clowney and JJ Watt, it might be a case of not enough sacks to go around. He'll still be an impactful player who demands attention when he's primed to get the QB, but his numbers might drop pretty low for a player of his calibur.

What say you?

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Jeremy Hill's touchdown numbers are going to go way down.  He's sucked for two years now, but covers some of that up with ~10 TDs/year.  Not this year.  If he gets 4, i'll be amazed.

We've also seen Geno Atkins start to slow down in recent years.  I think we'll see a little more decline.  Not a ton, but just a little.  He'll remain quite serviceable and a key piece on the line for another few years.

I also think we're going to see a little bigger cliff for Adam Jones this year.  He's been one of the better corners in the NFL the last few years.  But he's getting up there in age.  I still think he'll be ok, but no where near the top player he's been.

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For the Saints...

Vonn Bell.  I'm a Buckeye fan and a Saints fan, and I was really torn by Bell because I wasn't sure if he was the playmaker he was when he first started playing, or the cautious player he was his final year.  I could see him taking a step back in his 2nd year, especially with the drafting of Marcus Williams likely getting the FS/deep safety position and Vaccarro being the SS/mid range player.

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Two players for the Vikings jump out:

Sam Bradford - He might have figured it out, but we'll have to see, mainly if he gets injured again it's a regression and would make it much harder to want him back. He'll likely regress a little bit just because that high a completion percentage isn't that likely.

Adam Thielen - His last season was amazing, almost 1,000 yards. If Treadwell steps up though and teams start to move more coverage to him versus Diggs, I could see Thielen regressing from his state line last year.

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Hogan probably takes a hit simply because of Cooks

Our line was unexpectedly good last year, particularly Thuney and Cannon. Both could regress

Trey Flowers has high expectations placed on him, I have a feeling he wont hit that mark

Dion Lewis is likely less productive due to less opportunities 

Malcolm Mitchell could easily hit a sophomore slump, especially with Cooks in the mix

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Kirk Cousins has a chance to regress due to all the changes at WR and the pressure of playing under the tag a 2nd year.  I don't think he will though. 

Rob Kelley ended up our starter mid year last year at RB but he could be replaced in that role.  

Zach Brown had a break out year at MLB last year for the Bills, its possible that was a fluke and he regresses.

Trent Murphy had a break out season last year but then was busted for a banned substance.  Maybe his boost last year was artificial?  Remains to be seen. 

Bashaud Breeland declined slightly last year after a pretty good 2015 season.  He could continue to regress.  

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The biggest non-age one that I can think of would be Stephon Tuitt for the Steelers. He really stepped up last year when Cam Heyward was injured, but I fear that he will suffer from what I refer to as Geno syndrome. Any time Crosby has been out for any length of time for the Penguins, Geno steps up to another level from his normal play. When Crosby finally comes back, Geno seems to settle back in to the backseat role to Crosby. It seems inexplicable that the level of play/production is higher with more focus on him, but it happens regularly. I could see this happening with Tuitt this year with Heyward back. By any logic, Heyward being back would take some focus off of Tuitt, freeing him up to play better, but I fear he will regress.

I think this may be the year that William Gay really drops off. He showed some regression last year and is only getting older. This may also be the year that James Harrison shows that he is human.

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T.J. Ward and Aqib Talib are 30 and 31, other than Domata Peko they're the elder statesmen on the team. Would be pretty realistic to expect at least one of the two to regress. Ward is probably already declining, Talib peaked last year. 

I could see injury rust affecting Matt Paradis especially in the first half of the season. Would have been tough to repeat his breakout performance last year anyway. 

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The 49ers don't have a whole lot of people that could regress. The stongest candidate would probably be Hoyer, who has actually played very well in his last 2 seasons (only 14 starts, and doesn't include the atrocity of a play off game) statistically. 

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10 hours ago, EliteTexan80 said:

Hope springs eternal right about now - everyone is undefeated, everyone has a better command of the playbook, everyone really hit the weights and came in looking better than ever. We've heard the tropes, yearly. However, the reality is, there are a few guys who simply won't show up this upcoming season. Who is it on your team?

For the Texans, I got the following:

RB Lamar Miller: I think everyone looks at the numbers and assumes Miller had a good season. Reality is, he was wildly inconsistent through the year (a lot of that had to do with injuries, and a lot of that can be chalked up to miscasting him as a between the T runner). Not sure the injury bug won't be a factor this year, but I'm in belief Miller won't be slammed into the line 20+ times a game. Bold prediction says he won't break 1,000 yards this season.

OLB Whitney Mercilius: This one seems like a shocker, but given what the Texans will be deploying on a pass rush with Jadevion Clowney and JJ Watt, it might be a case of not enough sacks to go around. He'll still be an impactful player who demands attention when he's primed to get the QB, but his numbers might drop pretty low for a player of his calibur.

What say you?

 

I can see Miller slowing down for the simple fact he gets less carries. I disagree with Whitney, I think if anything, Watt will slow down in the sense he won't play at his previous level prior to injury. I hope I am wrong, but I have a feeling his days of bending the edge could be in jeopardy. He is already missing team activities in camp.

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6 hours ago, amazingandre said:

 

I can see Miller slowing down for the simple fact he gets less carries. I disagree with Whitney, I think if anything, Watt will slow down in the sense he won't play at his previous level prior to injury. I hope I am wrong, but I have a feeling his days of bending the edge could be in jeopardy. He is already missing team activities in camp.

I think that's precautionary more than anything. Given last years' rush to get Watt back on the field (and subsequent reinjury) the team is taking it very easy with Watt. Wouldn't shock me to see him on a snap count early on in the season, slowly brought back to full time.

What that ultimately looks like is beyond me, but I think Watt not doing much right now is by design.

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On 7/31/2017 at 7:04 AM, theJ said:

Jeremy Hill's touchdown numbers are going to go way down.  He's sucked for two years now, but covers some of that up with ~10 TDs/year.  Not this year.  If he gets 4, i'll be amazed.

We've also seen Geno Atkins start to slow down in recent years.  I think we'll see a little more decline.  Not a ton, but just a little.  He'll remain quite serviceable and a key piece on the line for another few years.

I also think we're going to see a little bigger cliff for Adam Jones this year.  He's been one of the better corners in the NFL the last few years.  But he's getting up there in age.  I still think he'll be ok, but no where near the top player he's been.

#FakeNews, there was no slowdown in Geno.  Adam Jones is a good selection though...

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