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A Dream Free Agency from Across the Pond


Brit Pack

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Important Cuts
Randall Cobb - I loved the pick when it happened and if it wasn't for his contract size would love to keep him around

Restructure
Jordy - For the chemistry alone with ARod you have to keep him around maybe add two or three years
ARod - add three years to his current deal pay him 30m a year, the longer you hang around doing this deal the more expensive it gets

The Big Splash
Lamarcus Joyner - Burnett is going to cost around 6m a season pay this man 10m a season, third best rated safety on PFF. LA Rams got too many signing to make, he is gettable and changes the back end of the D with some speed

One of these cheapish CB 
Aaron Colvin 
Ross Cockrell
Breshaud Breelin

And a cheapish WR
Cody Latimer - excellent size and speed, started to put together towards the end of last season, never really had great QB play, special teams demon, pay him what you might have paid Janis
Taylor Gabriel - if you want speed this guy got it, small but quick receiver, would love to see what ARod does with him


 

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Joyner was the epitome of average until he played for Wade Phillips.  He's going to return to the epitome of average unless he continues playing for Phillips.  Add the fact that he's 27, 5-8 and 190 pounds and had 0 interceptions in his first three years, I'll take Burnett, who is 3 inches taller, 19 pounds heavier, and less than two years older who will also be cheaper. 

 

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Burnett don’t do it for me anymore. He never really has,, a bit like the AJ Hawk of safties.  He has had like 3ints in the past 5 seasons. I want someone to make a play on the ball and for whats available and out there in free agency Joyner works best for me. If I’m looking to make a splash on defence there is no edge guys or corners to go crazy for, with Joyner i am tempted. I’d personally like to see HaHa play more of a Burnett role and closer to the LOS.

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Just now, Brit Pack said:

Burnett don’t do it for me anymore. He never really has,, a bit like the AJ Hawk of safties.  He has had like 3ints in the past 5 seasons.\

You mean the exact number of interceptions Joyner has in his four year career? 

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Yup, the difference was those three came in the last season when he switched to playing safety from slot corner. Safety being the position he played most of his college career.

This is an extract from an article: 

Joyner has been targeted 25 times and has allowed only 11 receptions, allowing a 32.5 passer rating that ranks fourth among safeties who have played at least 460 snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. His coverage grade, 92.7, ranks first among the 88 players who qualify.

"He doesn't have great size," Phillips said, "but he makes plays all over the field."

You might not rate Joyner as I do but please don’t make out that Burnett is the answer either, if we pay to keep him as a safety we stay pretty average at the back end.

i prefer to spend in free agency for a sefety rather than draft one and wait for them to develop. The only other safety that i could potentially see as an upgrade is Eric Reid but he has missed 9 games over the last two seasons.

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3 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

Yup, the difference was those three came in the last season when he switched to playing safety from slot corner. Safety being the position he played most of his college career.

*Primarily slot corner.  Not exclusively.  Slot corner is pretty similar to free safety.  One of his interceptions came against Scott Tolzien.  Another one came against Carson Palmer in the middle of a 33-0 win for the Rams.  His third came against Gabbert.  Not world beaters. 

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You might not rate Joyner as I do but please don’t make out that Burnett is the answer either, if we pay to keep him as a safety we stay pretty average at the back end.

I never said Burnett was the answer.  I said he was as good an answer as Joyner.  Burnett has never been the reason we've sucked on defense.  He's never been the reason we've been average on defense.  Burnett would cost a maximum of 10 million next year, and that's if we put a franchise tag on him.  You sign Joyner and that's it for your free agent additions.  I don't care how well Joyner played for the Rams last year.  He's undersized and he has had one good year.  Burnett is not undersized, he knows the team, and he has had nearly twice as much NFL experience while playing at an average or above average level his entire career.

The only reason you want Joyner is because he's different. 

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Nope. It is because I don't want to give a 29 year old who has averaged one interception a season over the course of his career a new contract. I could hardly imagine what the *** end of his career would look like...

I know it is not the be all and end all but he had a very average grade of 77.3 on PFF and whenever I watch him he is average. Nice to have around but now is a good time to break ties as his contract is up. For the sake of familiarity and average play, you want to commit money to a safety that had no interceptions and no sacks in 2017??? Joyner I feel is an ascending player, and aside from interceptions he has done exceptionally well in coverage and that is what I think this defence needs a centre fielder and hence you can get away with a less than ideal sized player. 

Furthermore, if you get rid of Cobb you ain't going blow everything on Joyner, top safeties earn 10m a season, if Morgan wants 6 - 7m a season there is not much difference in it really.

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Just now, Brit Pack said:

Nope. It is because I don't want to give a 29 year old who has averaged one interception a season over the course of his career a new contract.

But you want to give a 27 year old who has averaged less than one interception over the course of his career that's a full 3 inches shorter twice as much money?  Seems odd.

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I know it is not the be all and end all but he had a very average grade of 77.3 on PFF and whenever I watch him he is average.

I agree.  PFF is a nice way to judge players, or at least get an idea.  However, in Burnett's case, he played everywhere last year.  PFF doesn't account for that.  In addition, check out our receiver's grades.  Cobb with a 73.  Nelson with a 74.  Adams with an 84.  You sign Joyner, you're not signing a receiver.  Check out our tight end grades.  49 for Rodgers.  42 for Kendricks.  You sign Joyner, you're not signing a tight end.  Check our pass rusher grades.  Perry with an 81.  Matthews with an 83 (people around here seem to think he deserved a 50, but I digress).  Brooks with a 72.  Fackrell with a 59.  Biegel with a 71.  You sign Joyner, and you're now unable to sign help at those positions, which, by definition, ARE NOT average. 

So if you have a problem with average, you need to have a bigger problem with below average.  You can't fix the below average if you fix the average, so any way you logic this, you come away with no Joyner. 

This is the problem with most "dream free agency scenarios."  They're perfect world scenarios.  It's not a perfect world.  Joyner is the top option at his position.  Find a year where the top player at their position to hit free agency wasn't overpaid.  You won't find it.

No, I want to commit LESS money to maintain average instead of taking a chance on a player who has had one good year and may revert back to his average level of play in a different scheme with different teammates.  It's considerably easier to play safety in this league when you have the league's defensive player of the year rushing the passer.

Trumaine Johnson, Peterson, Robey-Coleman also make it easier on a safety than Randall and whoever the eff we had at the end of the year.  House.  Hawkins.  Frickin Pipkins? 

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Furthermore, if you get rid of Cobb you ain't going blow everything on Joyner, top safeties earn 10m a season, if Morgan wants 6 - 7m a season there is not much difference in it really.

If a frog had wings it wouldn't bump its butt on the ground.  Joyner is getting more than 10 million a year on his contract.  10 million is the average of all safeties.  10 million is what he would get if he was franchise tagged. 

Signing Joyner is the equivalent of putting another bandaid on top of a bandaid when you've got cuts all along your arm that don't have bandaids on them. 

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The only point you made there that I agree with is that Joyner had a better supporting cast and hence why that influenced his play.

The points I disagree with is that why are you quoting me PFF grades for offensive players or in fact any defensive players? That simply confuses the argument. Offensive play suffered without Rodgers, so hence it was below average grades. Anyway to improve the offence infuse the roster with talent through the draft so they grow with the team, that was Ron Wolf's mantra and acquire defensive players through free agency.

So we are looking at having a hole in our safety position that needs filling.  Free agents picking are slim to improve pass rush (and the low PFF grades are for backups that you are quoting) and there are some options for cornerbacks which I have already addressed in my original post. I find it rare that you have the ability to address in free agency a position of need and top quality talent, all be it for one season, available.

Finally, 10m is not the average for safeties. 26 safeties make 5m a season, 12 make 7m a season, 7 make 9m a season, with Eric Berry make 13m at the top end. As you have rightly mentioned Joyner only has one years worth of production, so I don't see, even in an inflated free agent market that he makes more than 10m. All the top 10 safeties have had a few years worth of production and a few pro bowls under their belt. I think he is very gettable.

Agreed it is a risk, as is any free agent signing but I think there is an opportunity to upgrade one of the few positions on defence through what is available in free agency rather than sticking with the status quo. I don't see that for any other position of need with the defence. We agree to disagree on whether Joyner is that replacement, or sticking with Burnett is sufficient. 

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Just now, Brit Pack said:

Finally, 10m is not the average for safeties. 26 safeties make 5m a season, 12 make 7m a season, 7 make 9m a season, with Eric Berry make 13m at the top end.

That's 45.  There are 32 teams.  There are two starting safeties per team.  That doesn't count backups. 

Literally any way you look at it, literally any argument you make, it doesn't change the fact that the franchise tag for a safety costs 10 million dollars.  Period.  There is literally no arguing that.

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/2/28/11129824/nfl-franchise-tag-and-transition-tag-numbers-how-much-will-it-cost

http://www.pennlive.com/steelers/index.ssf/2017/02/nfl_franchise_tag_2017_position.html

Doesn't matter because the Packers aren't signing Joyner.  Joyner certainly isn't signing with the Packers for less than 10 million per.  If you think otherwise, you're wrong, and it all boils down to this:

Would you, as an NFL player, sign a deal with a new team, new teammates and a new scheme a year after your last coordinator helped you to your best year as a pro for the same amount of money you could get if your current team put the tag on you?  Keep in mind this is a move from LOS ANGELES to GREEN BAY WISCONSIN.

It ain't happening, bro. 

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13 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

That's 45.  There are 32 teams.  There are two starting safeties per team.  That doesn't count backups. 

Literally any way you look at it, literally any argument you make, it doesn't change the fact that the franchise tag for a safety costs 10 million dollars.  Period.  There is literally no arguing that.

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/2/28/11129824/nfl-franchise-tag-and-transition-tag-numbers-how-much-will-it-cost

http://www.pennlive.com/steelers/index.ssf/2017/02/nfl_franchise_tag_2017_position.html

Doesn't matter because the Packers aren't signing Joyner.  Joyner certainly isn't signing with the Packers for less than 10 million per.  If you think otherwise, you're wrong, and it all boils down to this:

Would you, as an NFL player, sign a deal with a new team, new teammates and a new scheme a year after your last coordinator helped you to your best year as a pro for the same amount of money you could get if your current team put the tag on you?  Keep in mind this is a move from LOS ANGELES to GREEN BAY WISCONSIN.

It ain't happening, bro. 

What's your proof that the Rams are offering 10m per for Joyner?

Maybe they decide to cap him at 8 per because they want to keep Quinn, have to resign Donald and Gurley and Goff isn't too far down the road either. So you're left with Watkins or Joyner. What if they choose Watkins to help their young QB?

I don't want to touch Joyner with a 10 foot pole because #1, I don't want a short safety, #2 I like Josh Jones and #3 I think the possibility that Burnett takes a discount or Derwin James is BPA at 14 are very high. All things leading me to not want anything to do with blowing cash on a safety. However, I'm not going to speak in certainties about anything because #1, I'm not a Rams fan and have no idea what they'll do, #2 I have absolutely 0 history with a Pettine/Gute combo picking defensive players. If Pettine thinks Joyner is the #1 FA in the class for his defense, go spend 10m on him.

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I agree it might not happen but I don't see that the franchise tag price becomes the base starting point for salary negotiations. That only comes into play if they are really thinking of tagging him, which I haven't heard of. What you are saying works if you are talking about Trumaine Johnson as he has been tagged previously.  Otherwise every free agent negotiation would start with franchise tag price, which is simply not the case.  The Rams got to deal with a Donald extension, Johnson, Sammy Watkins as well as Joyner . I do think he'll get 10m. Any way I'm just dreaming...:)

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