Draft Discussion 3.0

[TheeRealDeal]

4 hours ago, freakygeniuskid said:

I think the reason we're so far apart is that you're looking career stats and I'm just talking about this year. 

Talking this year. You mean the same year that Josh Rosen still threw more picks in the redzone(4) than 8 of the other Top 9 QBs in this draft with only Lamar Jackson having more(5)
in his entire career than Rosen in a single season? That "just this year"?

Josh Rosen
Red Zone        32/67    15-4 on 67 22.38%    .059%    22.32 dif
Losing by 1-7        81/134    60.44%    6-4
Winning by 1-7        52/79    65.82%    4-1
3rd & Manageble     17/37    3-0 14 1st Downs 37.83% 1st Down Rate
4th and OT        77/119    64.70%    10-3

Sam Darnold
Red Zone        27/49    15-1 on 49 30.61% .020%    30.59 dif
Losing by 1-7        52/81    64.19%    3-2 
Winning by 1-7        56/93    60.21%    5-5
3rd and Manageble     32/49    3-0 25 1st Downs 51.02% 1ST Down Rate
4th and OT          63/106  59.43% 4-1

Sam still outperformed Josh by a wide margin in the Redzone, 3rd Down if you are talking about only this year. The 5 picks while leading to just 1 for Rosen is the only area where Rosen would have an edge and judging by the piles of stats I have seen and studied out myself I would easily call that an aberration. 

And lets not act like USC's schedule wasn't superior or anything because it was infact that much harder. They played in the PAC title game. Ohio State in the bowl game as apposed to Kansas State. Western Michigan was a tougher game than Hawaii. Notre Dame is far superior to Memphis. Texas was better defensively than Texas A&M. USC also drew Washington State's underrated defense and #1 in the PAC to #8 Washing for Rosen. Even in the one game they had a common decent opponent Sam Darnold completely out played Josh Rosen going with 4TDs and 2 Pick to Rosen's 1-1. As mentioned early he had to do it again against Stanford and went 2TD to 0 Picks.

I am not about to risk my franchise on a QB with the amount of damning evidence as I have seen from Josh Rosen. I am not just talking about the statistical studies. His bad attitude and lack of coachability are hard to miss when watching the elite 11. He has character concerns. He has injury concerns even beyond concussions. There is simply too much against him for the risk at #1.

 

1. Baker Mayfield Top 6

2. Sam Darnold Top 6

3. Lamar Jackson Top 20

4. Josh Allen Mid 2nd-3rd round

5. Josh Rosen Mind 2nd-3rd round

6. Mike White 3rd round

7. Kyle Laueletta 3rd round

8. Mason Rudolph 4th round

9. Luke Falk 4th round

I will gladly debate any of that information above because I could very easily be wrong about my rankings but I will not debate Josh Rosen being worthy of #1 overall. He is not even remotely worth the thought IMO. He is the poster boy for throwing mechanics and that is about it.

[big poppa pump]

Yes it's so obvious that guys taken high at RB over the last several years have 0 impact on the game.  Who wants Zeke, Fournette, or Gurley???   Bunch of garbage....that's  what they are....errrr ummmm super bowls.......errrr ummm shelf life. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

2 hours ago, big poppa pump said:

Yes it's so obvious that guys taken high at RB over the last several years have 0 impact on the game.  Who wants Zeke, Fournette, or Gurley???   Bunch of garbage....that's  what they are....errrr ummmm super bowls.......errrr ummm shelf life. 

No one said RB have errr ummmm no impact, simply you can get that impact later in the draft. Like our current GM did last season when he drafted the league’s leading rusher in round 3.

And is shelf life a question?   Do you have a counterpoint there? I thought that was pretty well established at this point.

And is a top tier RB needed for a Super Bowl? Again, is there an argument or counterpoint? LeGarrette Blount was good enough to win the last couple, how good is he? CJ Anderson before that?  Maybe we trade a couple day 3 picks for a RB like Seattle did for Beastmode?

You’re going full retard and arguing facts with opinions and it’s adorable.

[pnies20]

2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

No one said RB have errr ummmm no impact, simply you can get that impact later in the draft. Like our current GM did last season when he drafted the league’s leading rusher in round 3.

And is shelf life a question?   Do you have a counterpoint there? I thought that was pretty well established at this point.

And is a top tier RB needed for a Super Bowl? Again, is there an argument or counterpoint? LeGarrette Blount was good enough to win the last couple, how good is he? CJ Anderson before that?  Maybe we trade a couple day 3 picks for a RB like Seattle did for Beastmode?

You’re going full retard and arguing facts with opinions and it’s adorable.

You can say that for a lot of positions. Rosters are filled with solid players from the 2-6 rounds of the draft.

 

and just like any other position... guard, safety, etc. if you have a generational talent you take it.

 

barkley is the best RB prospect since Peterson.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

4 hours ago, pnies20 said:

You can say that for a lot of positions. Rosters are filled with solid players from the 2-6 rounds of the draft.

 

and just like any other position... guard, safety, etc. if you have a generational talent you take it.

 

barkley is the best RB prospect since Peterson.

And having the best running back in the league doesn’t mean a whole lot.

Best QB? You are a title contender.

Best defense? Title contender.

Best running back? Nothing. You have a good running back, that’s it.

If we had those other pieces in place, running back makes more sense, but we don’t.

 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

And the whole “best since Peterson” line means nothing.  Every year someone new is “the best since Peterson”. And then when that’s noted the obvious follow up is “but this guy really is the best”, which, again, is said every year.

Yall need new material.

[big poppa pump]

46 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

And having the best running back in the league doesn’t mean a whole lot.

Best QB? You are a title contender.

Best defense? Title contender.

Best running back? Nothing. You have a good running back, that’s it.

If we had those other pieces in place, running back makes more sense, but we don’t.

 

And another fun fact.  How many SB winning QB over the last 10 years were drafted in the top 10??? I believe that is 1...Eli Manning.  You don't see anyone arguing that we should just wait to grab our QB later.   #stupidargument

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

4 minutes ago, big poppa pump said:

And another fun fact.  How many SB winning QB over the last 10 years were drafted in the top 10??? I believe that is 1...Eli Manning.  You don't see anyone arguing that we should just wait to grab our QB later.   #stupidargument

Fair enough.  Wentz techinically if im being petty makes 3 rings.... Ben makes it 5 since 2000 (went about the same spot Gurley did). And Cam, Ryan, McNabb and Roethlisberger all ran into the buzz saw that is the Pats in the Super Bowl in that time period.

How many of those Super Bowl winning teams identity were based around great QB’s and/or great defenses? Most, of not all.

How many rode their running game to a title?

We can dance around the point all you like, having a “bell cow” running back or an elite run game is absolutely not necessary and teams who’ve tried to build their identity around such a player have not won in a LONG time. 

[big poppa pump]

8 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Fair enough.  Wentz techinically if im being petty makes 3 rings.... Ben makes it 5 since 2000 (went about the same spot Gurley did). And Cam, Ryan, McNabb and Roethlisberger all ran into the buzz saw that is the Pats in the Super Bowl in that time period.

How many of those Super Bowl winning teams identity were based around great QB’s and/or great defenses? Most, of not all.

How many rode their running game to a title?

We can dance around the point all you like, having a “bell cow” running back or an elite run game is absolutely not necessary and teams who’ve tried to build their identity around such a player have not won in a LONG time. 

I believe we are trying to add BOTH...at least that's what I am saying...if we get a stud qb at 1...and we have the opportunity to add possibly the best offensive weapon at 4???   I think that is the route to go.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, big poppa pump said:

I believe we are trying to add BOTH...at least that's what I am saying...if we get a stud qb at 1...and we have the opportunity to add possibly the best offensive weapon at 4???   I think that is the route to go.

I want to add both as well, I just think that there is better value at that position round 2.  Picks 33, 35 specifically. Guys like Jones, Michel, Penny, Guice, etc.

If defense and QB’s are what win Super Bowls, that’s what I want to use my premium picks on.

If we can’t move back a few spots and pick up 2019 picks, I’d prefer they take Minkah (if they like him at CB), Nelson (if they believe he can be an elite LT) or even Chubb if they view him as a 10+ sack guy.

An ideal situation is moving back to 6 with the Jets, picking up a 2 and 3 next year and still being able to nab one of these top guys. Hell Barkley may still be there for all we know. Depending on how QB hungry teams get, some very good talent could get pushed down the board a bit.

[lancerman]

8 hours ago, pnies20 said:

You can say that for a lot of positions. Rosters are filled with solid players from the 2-6 rounds of the draft.

 

and just like any other position... guard, safety, etc. if you have a generational talent you take it.

 

barkley is the best RB prospect since Peterson.

And how many Super Bowls did Peterson get too? How far did Peterson's Vikings make it in the playoffs? The NFCCG once, when they had some guy named Brett Favre, the same game that they just got to their first year without him?

Peterson's great, Barkley would be very fortunate if he ever reached his level, in this league the QB position is infinitely more important. 

[lancerman]

3 hours ago, big poppa pump said:

And another fun fact.  How many SB winning QB over the last 10 years were drafted in the top 10??? I believe that is 1...Eli Manning.  You don't see anyone arguing that we should just wait to grab our QB later.   #stupidargument

Better fact, how many years has a top 5 QB made the Super Bowl vs a top 5 RB in the last 10 years?

[MWil23]

Who let patriots fans in here? 

[pnies20]

5 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

And having the best running back in the league doesn’t mean a whole lot.

Best QB? You are a title contender.

Best defense? Title contender.

Best running back? Nothing. You have a good running back, that’s it.

If we had those other pieces in place, running back makes more sense, but we don’t.

 

We're going to get our QBs is year. 

We're going to get a few defensive pieces.

Makes no sense to pass on a generational talent at any skill position. Top 10 RBs taken since 2007:

2017:

4. Fournette

8. McCafferey

2016:

4. Ezekiel Elliott

2015: 

10. Todd Gurley +

2012:

3. Trent Richardson GOAT

2010: 

9. C.J. Spiller

2008:

4. Darren McFadden

2007:

7. Adrian Peterson +

 

Went back to 2007 to show that when there was a blue chip RB prospect, teams were never afraid to take him in the top 10. + sign indicates a player taken despite injury concerns. The years where there was no RB in the top 10, the top RB prospects were:

2009:

knowshon moreno

2011:

Mark Ingram

2013:

Giovanni Bernard

2014: 

Bishop Sankey

Recently (since 2015), the relevance of the RB in their respective offense has increased and has had a positive correlation with the talent level of the player. This is creating a lower bust rate. RBs are trending up. I went all the way back to the late 90s and it was true then as well. 

[big poppa pump]

45 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Better fact, how many years has a top 5 QB made the Super Bowl vs a top 5 RB in the last 10 years?

The argument isn't Top 5 QB vs Top 5 RB Einstein

Besides...as previously discussed...top 5 guys at their position are drafted all over the place.  You can get great qb's past the first round, as well as great rb's.

I say take the QB all day every day at 1.  I would not advocate taking Barkley at 1.  If he is there at 4, I believe he is the best offensive talent in this draft, and that we should take him.

Others don't value the position