The Josh Rosen Hype / Rumor Train to Buffalo

[FEARtheELF]

1 hour ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

Just got wind that the Bills are trading up today.

Stay tuned.

1, 2, or 4??

[Iamcanadian]

2 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

Beane spoke to Peter King this morning and said the following information when asked if you will trade up again with all the ammo you have?:

"The truth? Most of these quarterbacks I've only spent 15 minutes with. [At the combine, each team can meet with prospects for a maximum of 15 minutes per player.] I haven't spent enough time to have an opinion about any of them yet, honestly. I actually sent a little note to our [scouts] yesterday. We got six weeks to get our board together. I am not there yet, knowing if we can or will move up again. I want [head coach] Sean [McDermott] to get to know all of them. We're just keeping an open mind. Where we're at, we've got the picks, we've got the draft capital. I'm not ready to pull the trigger."

So I am not sure if the story about Browns is true. Keep in mind its all about rumors and leverage. Bills have been tight lipped about everything when it comes to players and I expect it to be the same. This could be a ploy on browns part to drum up interest for other teams to bid more picks. They can essentially continue to add more picks and build a brand new roster by trading the #1 overall pick if they are comfortable of getting their qb at 4.

Translation: The Giants/Browns are asking a fortune for their #2 and #4 pick and I am faking disinterest in hopes of driving the price down at least a bit? I am going to have to trade with one of them, hopefully the Giants, but I am trying to hang on to my 2019 1st rounder and I clearly remember that Washington paid 3 1st rounders plus more picks for RG3 for the #2 pick and I do not want to pay that price, although in the end, I might have too!!!

[Trentwannabe]

One thing Mayock and Daniel Jeremiah mentioned several times during Josh Allens pro day was his accuracy issues are more about placement and not wild and off throws.

IMO he showed his touch today which was one of the knocks about him.

[BillsGuy82]

Josh Allen had himself a very good pro day. Consistently nailing 60+ yard bombs, 

Cleveland had the largest contingent there with 8 reps. Not sure how Buffalo was represented.

[CWood21]

On 3/14/2018 at 7:24 PM, BillsGuy82 said:

I don't see why we'll have to deal our 2019 (1) to move up. We'll be able to move up with picks this year 

Let's look at this from a pure numbers' standpoint.  The Jets traded two 2nds this year and a future 2nd.  Ignoring the future 2nd for a second, let's look at their two seconds they traded this year.  The Jets traded 37th (530 points) and 49th (410 points) to move up in the draft, those two picks combined are worth roughly the 17th overall pick.  The Bills' 2 second round picks are 53rd (370 points) and 56th (340 points) or worth roughly the 25th overall pick.  So now the Bills have to make up the difference between the 6th and 12th pick and 17th and 25th picks.  The difference between that combination of picks is roughly the 29th pick, so the Bills now have to include their other 1st round pick in order to swallow the gap.

So the Bills have traded 12th, 22nd, 53rd, and 56th pick and that's not taking into account the value of the Jets' future 2nd.  So they'd at the very least have to throw in a future 2nd round pick in order to "match" values.  Are you willing to do that deal?

[Yibbyl]

20 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Let's look at this from a pure numbers' standpoint.  The Jets traded two 2nds this year and a future 2nd.  Ignoring the future 2nd for a second, let's look at their two seconds they traded this year.  The Jets traded 37th (530 points) and 49th (410 points) to move up in the draft, those two picks combined are worth roughly the 17th overall pick.  The Bills' 2 second round picks are 53rd (370 points) and 56th (340 points) or worth roughly the 25th overall pick.  So now the Bills have to make up the difference between the 6th and 12th pick and 17th and 25th picks.  The difference between that combination of picks is roughly the 29th pick, so the Bills now have to include their other 1st round pick in order to swallow the gap.

So the Bills have traded 12th, 22nd, 53rd, and 56th pick and that's not taking into account the value of the Jets' future 2nd.  So they'd at the very least have to throw in a future 2nd round pick in order to "match" values.  Are you willing to do that deal?

This year, without hesitation. In the past when we haven't had this amount of draft ammo, I've complained about losing draft picks to move up. The only time I've been able to simulate us landing a quality QB was in hindsight. Time for a different strategy.

[BillsGuy82]

16 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Let's look at this from a pure numbers' standpoint.  The Jets traded two 2nds this year and a future 2nd.  Ignoring the future 2nd for a second, let's look at their two seconds they traded this year.  The Jets traded 37th (530 points) and 49th (410 points) to move up in the draft, those two picks combined are worth roughly the 17th overall pick.  The Bills' 2 second round picks are 53rd (370 points) and 56th (340 points) or worth roughly the 25th overall pick.  So now the Bills have to make up the difference between the 6th and 12th pick and 17th and 25th picks.  The difference between that combination of picks is roughly the 29th pick, so the Bills now have to include their other 1st round pick in order to swallow the gap.

So the Bills have traded 12th, 22nd, 53rd, and 56th pick and that's not taking into account the value of the Jets' future 2nd.  So they'd at the very least have to throw in a future 2nd round pick in order to "match" values.  Are you willing to do that deal?

First, the Jets threw the trade value chart out the window so basing any other deal off of a ridiculous over payment is moot at this point imo. Second, we're gonna have to deal our 2019 (1) to move to 2, it's inevitable now.

[Trentwannabe]

If the Giants really want Chubb then Buffalo is going to have to get up to 5 or 6 before the Giants would agree to a trade down. 

This of course is assuming Beane really wants Allen or Rosen. 

[Iamcanadian]

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Let's look at this from a pure numbers' standpoint.  The Jets traded two 2nds this year and a future 2nd.  Ignoring the future 2nd for a second, let's look at their two seconds they traded this year.  The Jets traded 37th (530 points) and 49th (410 points) to move up in the draft, those two picks combined are worth roughly the 17th overall pick.  The Bills' 2 second round picks are 53rd (370 points) and 56th (340 points) or worth roughly the 25th overall pick.  So now the Bills have to make up the difference between the 6th and 12th pick and 17th and 25th picks.  The difference between that combination of picks is roughly the 29th pick, so the Bills now have to include their other 1st round pick in order to swallow the gap.

So the Bills have traded 12th, 22nd, 53rd, and 56th pick and that's not taking into account the value of the Jets' future 2nd.  So they'd at the very least have to throw in a future 2nd round pick in order to "match" values.  Are you willing to do that deal?

You left out 1 other factor, a 2019 first only carries the weight of a second round value, that is how it is counted re: the trade chart. It is the price discount for having to wait a year to get an actual body who can play!, so a 2019 second rounder is only worth third round value Etc. Etc.

As for the deal itself, if they think they are actually getting a solid franchise QB who can play for the next 15  or more years, then yes, it is definitely worth it!!! It is a cheap price for a solid franchise QB

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, Iamcanadian said:

You left out 1 other factor, a 2019 first only carries the weight of a second round value, that is how it is counted re: the trade chart. It is the price discount for having to wait a year to get an actual body who can play!, so a 2019 second rounder is only worth third round value Etc. Etc.

As for the deal itself, if they think they are actually getting a solid franchise QB who can play for the next 15  or more years, then yes, it is definitely worth it!!! It is a cheap price for a solid franchise QB

I didn't leave that out.  I mentioned at the beginning I was "excluding" the future 2nd round pick that the Jets sent to the Colts as part of the deal, but I mentioned it at the end.  If the Bills have to "match" the Jets package, it's going to be 12, 22, 53, 56, and a 2019 2nd round pick.

[soflbillsfan]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I didn't leave that out.  I mentioned at the beginning I was "excluding" the future 2nd round pick that the Jets sent to the Colts as part of the deal, but I mentioned it at the end.  If the Bills have to "match" the Jets package, it's going to be 12, 22, 53, 56, and a 2019 2nd round pick.

Im not sure what the point is as the draft chart is useless. This draft chart came out in the 1990s when Jimmy Johnson was coach of the Cowboys. Since then the NFL has had a new CBA which places a rookie contract scale in place to prevent random contract numbers. Since this change has been made the value of draft picks have been more sketchy as it has been devised on a supply and demand chart for said players. One year it could be as easy as moving up 10-15 spots by just simply giving up a 2nd round pick ie Miami Dolphins pick 12 to pick 2 and gave up a 2nd rd pick to get the Oregon pass rusher, because there was no major QBs in the draft the need was scarce. When there were multiple top qbs in the draft the demand was high which left teams like Redskins paying 3 first rd picks to jump from 6 to 2 as multiple teams were interested in RG3 services. These are simply 2 examples but are proof that the draft chart is simply outdated with Media and Fans trying to rate picks on what is acceptable and what is over/under pricing a valued pick. That being said jets did move up to 3 by giving up 3 2nd round picks however it doesnt necessarily mean the bills have to give up a farm load of picks to get to 2 as that means one less team is in demand of pick 2 unless the jets are pushing still to get there. If no other team is pushing to get to 2 it comes down to what the bills are willing to move and what the giants are willing to accept to make the agreed trade. It could be 3 first rd picks or it could be 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and a 3rd or it could be a bag of chips for all we know. No one really knows except the Bills Gm and Giants GM. Heck Giants maybe infatuated with a player and will stay at 2 which would suck for us but nothing beane can do as he has been trying to make the moves that are acceptable to move up. I do think that beane has an idea of where he needs to be to make the giants interested as he wouldnt have traded glenn for 9 spots in a draft if a mid round pick was more appealing to the Giants.

[Iamcanadian]

7 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

Im not sure what the point is as the draft chart is useless. This draft chart came out in the 1990s when Jimmy Johnson was coach of the Cowboys. Since then the NFL has had a new CBA which places a rookie contract scale in place to prevent random contract numbers. Since this change has been made the value of draft picks have been more sketchy as it has been devised on a supply and demand chart for said players. One year it could be as easy as moving up 10-15 spots by just simply giving up a 2nd round pick ie Miami Dolphins pick 12 to pick 2 and gave up a 2nd rd pick to get the Oregon pass rusher, because there was no major QBs in the draft the need was scarce. When there were multiple top qbs in the draft the demand was high which left teams like Redskins paying 3 first rd picks to jump from 6 to 2 as multiple teams were interested in RG3 services. These are simply 2 examples but are proof that the draft chart is simply outdated with Media and Fans trying to rate picks on what is acceptable and what is over/under pricing a valued pick. That being said jets did move up to 3 by giving up 3 2nd round picks however it doesnt necessarily mean the bills have to give up a farm load of picks to get to 2 as that means one less team is in demand of pick 2 unless the jets are pushing still to get there. If no other team is pushing to get to 2 it comes down to what the bills are willing to move and what the giants are willing to accept to make the agreed trade. It could be 3 first rd picks or it could be 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and a 3rd or it could be a bag of chips for all we know. No one really knows except the Bills Gm and Giants GM. Heck Giants maybe infatuated with a player and will stay at 2 which would suck for us but nothing beane can do as he has been trying to make the moves that are acceptable to move up. I do think that beane has an idea of where he needs to be to make the giants interested as he wouldnt have traded glenn for 9 spots in a draft if a mid round pick was more appealing to the Giants.

I agree to a certain extent to the quality of the draft year influencing the trade value and also the value of a QB certainly can impact the trade value, but overall, a lot of GM's are still from the old school and recognize the value of the trade chart as having some real worth. GM's know they will have to explain to the owner and to their fan base, when a trade deviates way too much from the value chart. The GM had better be right or he could soon be looking for another job if he variates way too much, with a flop as the result!!!

IMO, for what it is worth, the Giants like either both of Darnold or Allen and are waiting to see what Cleveland does with their #1 pick, if the Browns choose Allen, then the Giants will likely take Darnold, if Cleveland takes Darnold, the Giants may either love Allen and draft him or simply trade out.

However, I believe you are wrong about trading partners, in the RG3 trade, Cleveland had far more assets than Washington did, but tried to lowball their offer, thinking nobody else had as much to offer and the Rams found a trading partner in Washington willing to pay a high price and Cleveland lost out!!! So do not count your chickens before they hatch!!!

Arizona and Denver are still in the hunt for a QB and we will have to be careful not to blow this opportunity and a trade up with Cleveland also could be in the works?? You just never know, but if you want #2 and a QB is involved in the trade, you can be sure the asking price is the mint!!!

There is a third option to this scenario, Arizona is drafting 15th and just maybe we traded up past them to draft Jackson or Rudolph after the top 4 QB's are gone or maybe it is just a fall back position if they cannot make a trade up??? We are simply not going to know till draft day, with so many question marks still remaining.

We may all feel taking a Jackson or a Rudolph is a stupid idea, but who are we really, certainly not pro scouts nor are we the team's GM, whose job could be on the line. I fully at this point, trust in Beane and will accept whatever happens, at least until it proves to be a  disaster and I pray it never comes to that!

[BillsGuy82]

8 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

I agree to a certain extent to the quality of the draft year influencing the trade value and also the value of a QB certainly can impact the trade value, but overall, a lot of GM's are still from the old school and recognize the value of the trade chart as having some real worth. GM's know they will have to explain to the owner and to their fan base, when a trade deviates way too much from the value chart. The GM had better be right or he could soon be looking for another job if he variates way too much, with a flop as the result!!!

IMO, for what it is worth, the Giants like either both of Darnold or Allen and are waiting to see what Cleveland does with their #1 pick, if the Browns choose Allen, then the Giants will likely take Darnold, if Cleveland takes Darnold, the Giants may either love Allen and draft him or simply trade out.

However, I believe you are wrong about trading partners, in the RG3 trade, Cleveland had far more assets than Washington did, but tried to lowball their offer, thinking nobody else had as much to offer and the Rams found a trading partner in Washington willing to pay a high price and Cleveland lost out!!! So do not count your chickens before they hatch!!!

Arizona and Denver are still in the hunt for a QB and we will have to be careful not to blow this opportunity and a trade up with Cleveland also could be in the works?? You just never know, but if you want #2 and a QB is involved in the trade, you can be sure the asking price is the mint!!!

There is a third option to this scenario, Arizona is drafting 15th and just maybe we traded up past them to draft Jackson or Rudolph after the top 4 QB's are gone or maybe it is just a fall back position if they cannot make a trade up??? We are simply not going to know till draft day, with so many question marks still remaining.

We may all feel taking a Jackson or a Rudolph is a stupid idea, but who are we really, certainly not pro scouts nor are we the team's GM, whose job could be on the line. I fully at this point, trust in Beane and will accept whatever happens, at least until it proves to be a  disaster and I pray it never comes to that!

Exactly, I'm noticing some people are not accepting the reality of us POSSIBLY not getting Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield. 

Some people don't like us drafting Josh Allen so they compare him to a god awful bust based on arm strength and size while the reality is he's pretty much the consensus #2 guy available and like you said, we don't know what our brain trust is thinking. 

[soflbillsfan]

9 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

I agree to a certain extent to the quality of the draft year influencing the trade value and also the value of a QB certainly can impact the trade value, but overall, a lot of GM's are still from the old school and recognize the value of the trade chart as having some real worth. GM's know they will have to explain to the owner and to their fan base, when a trade deviates way too much from the value chart. The GM had better be right or he could soon be looking for another job if he variates way too much, with a flop as the result!!!

IMO, for what it is worth, the Giants like either both of Darnold or Allen and are waiting to see what Cleveland does with their #1 pick, if the Browns choose Allen, then the Giants will likely take Darnold, if Cleveland takes Darnold, the Giants may either love Allen and draft him or simply trade out.

However, I believe you are wrong about trading partners, in the RG3 trade, Cleveland had far more assets than Washington did, but tried to lowball their offer, thinking nobody else had as much to offer and the Rams found a trading partner in Washington willing to pay a high price and Cleveland lost out!!! So do not count your chickens before they hatch!!!

Arizona and Denver are still in the hunt for a QB and we will have to be careful not to blow this opportunity and a trade up with Cleveland also could be in the works?? You just never know, but if you want #2 and a QB is involved in the trade, you can be sure the asking price is the mint!!!

There is a third option to this scenario, Arizona is drafting 15th and just maybe we traded up past them to draft Jackson or Rudolph after the top 4 QB's are gone or maybe it is just a fall back position if they cannot make a trade up??? We are simply not going to know till draft day, with so many question marks still remaining.

We may all feel taking a Jackson or a Rudolph is a stupid idea, but who are we really, certainly not pro scouts nor are we the team's GM, whose job could be on the line. I fully at this point, trust in Beane and will accept whatever happens, at least until it proves to be a  disaster and I pray it never comes to that!

I agree on the fact they  cant sit back and allow other teams to out bid them. If the bills truly believe in one of those guys and they have the chance to  move up your going to overspend that was what I was trying to say. You cant let a team come in and knock your chances out cause your not willing to throw that extra player/pick in. What some people need to understand is that yes the asking price maybe a lot but if this is the guy for the next 10-15 years who cares what it takes that is a position that they wont have to worry about for that long of time and it is also the most important position in the game. 

If Lamar or Rudolph are their guys great get them, not a fan of them but if its your guy who you believe is there for the long term then it is what it is. However if Rosen/allen/mayfield/darnold is your top choice and you have the option of getting him then start throwing everything you have at the giants to get him. You cant settle for back up options thats what the bills have done for over 2 decades now. Bills settled for JP losman and that turned out awful compared to what they could have got in Big Ben. 

Lamar is going to run a lot and I have yet to see a run first qb make it long term in the league that is why I do not want him along with his accuracy issues reminds me to much of tyrod. 

[Trentwannabe]

4 hours ago, BillsGuy82 said:

Some people don't like us drafting Josh Allen so they compare him to a god awful bust based on arm strength and size while the reality is he's pretty much the consensus #2 guy available and like you said, we don't know what our brain trust is thinking. 

I think Jeremiah said it best, Allen has all the tools and ability and most importantly the desire to be great. He has already improved by working with Jordan Palmer and at the Senior Bowl from what he was doing at Wyoming where he wasn't receiving the best coaching. DJ said, if he gets the time and can actually refine his craft, he will play in this league at a high level for a long time. 

Our staff clearly prefers pocket passers by drafting Peterman and then signing McCarron after supposedly being interested in Bradford. Either Josh in this draft makes sense, and I think Allen is who they covet based on the Newton comparison, Beanes remarks about getting a player between 12 and 15 and finally, Allens demeanor and upbringing appeal to McDermott.