The Josh Rosen Hype / Rumor Train to Buffalo

[soflbillsfan]

42 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

To me Allen will be a poor mans Stafford. He really isn't as bad as the box score researches will push. 

Cam Newton, Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco have been to Super Bowls, Conference Championship games and been a Super Bowl winner with less then 60% on that season or career average. 

Off the top of my head Jake Locker and Stafford the only 1st round QBs to be taken with less then 60% college career completion percentage. I am sure there is more, but this is far from the be all end all for a QB's success.

Proof?

1	Colt Brennan*	70.39	2005	2007	Hawaii
2	Colt McCoy*	70.33	2006	2009	Texas
3	Kellen Moore*	69.78	2008	2011	Boise State
4	Graham Harrell*	69.77	2005	2008	Texas Tech
5	Brandon Weeden*	69.54	2008	2011	Oklahoma State
6	Case Keenum*	69.36	2007	2011	Houston
7	Chase Holbrook	69.35	2006	2008	New Mexico State
8	Seth Doege*	69.00	2009	2012	Texas Tech
9	Johnny Manziel*	68.95	2012	2013	Texas A&M
10	Brandon Doughty*	68.61	2011	2015	Western Kentucky
11	Baker Mayfield*	68.54	2013	2017	Oklahoma
12	Teddy Bridgewater*	68.39	2011	2013	Louisville
13	Luke Falk*	68.31	2014	2017	Washington State
14	Bruce Gradkowski*	68.21	2002	2005	Toledo
15	David Fales*	68.12	2012	2013	San Jose State
16	Doug Gaynor	68.06	1984	1985	Long Beach State
17	Chase Daniel*	67.99	2005	2008	Missouri
18	Sam Bradford*	67.64	2007	2009	Oklahoma
19	Cody Kessler*	67.49	2012	2015	USC
20	Greg Ward Jr.*	67.45	2013	2016	Houston
21	Brett Hundley*	67.45	2012	2014	UCLA
22	Geno Smith*	67.44	2009	2012	West Virginia
23	Deshaun Watson*	67.44	2014	2016	Clemson
24	Tim Couch	67.15	1996	1998	Kentucky
25	Robert Griffin III*	67.11	2008	2011

 

EJ Manuel is 30th all time 

The issue I have with Allen is he didnt show improvement he had 56% in 2016 and 56.3% in 2017...With Stafford his 3 years improved in college going from 52.4 all the way up to 61%. Im not comfortable with going up and trading for a guy who didnt show much improvement in college very questionable accuracy only to have a big arm. He is boom or bust on potential I am more comfortable of them giving up picks to get a guy who has shown more consistency and improved over their college time. People have critiqued Allen saying his accuracy is bad, he cant read defenses and he holds on to the ball to long. Moving up to 2 or 4 to get that guy is untrust worthy to me. If the bills were pick 2 and had all their other picks then fine go for it but trading multiple picks for that would suck.

[Trentwannabe]

1 hour ago, soflbillsfan said:

The issue I have with Allen is he didnt show improvement he had 56% in 2016 and 56.3% in 2017...With Stafford his 3 years improved in college going from 52.4 all the way up to 61%. Im not comfortable with going up and trading for a guy who didnt show much improvement in college very questionable accuracy only to have a big arm. He is boom or bust on potential I am more comfortable of them giving up picks to get a guy who has shown more consistency and improved over their college time. People have critiqued Allen saying his accuracy is bad, he cant read defenses and he holds on to the ball to long. Moving up to 2 or 4 to get that guy is untrust worthy to me. If the bills were pick 2 and had all their other picks then fine go for it but trading multiple picks for that would suck.

Stafford also had the luxury of AJ Green in his final season. 

I have heard some national media and draft pundits say these negatives about Allen but most of it from what I have seen is the fans and amateur box score scouts. Guys like McShay, DJ, Brooks and Mayock have no reason to build up Allen in an already strong QB class yet they all agree based on potential, Allen is worthy of a high selection. Is Allen going to need a strong D and running game to succeed early? Absolutely. But there is zero questions about character and head injuries which he has among physical traits over the other guys outside of Darnold IMO.

I can completely understand why fans are uncomfortable or would prefer someone else, but some of the hot takes on social media and this website on the draft forum are so funny to me. I think Allen is Cam Newton at worst with about a third of the rushing success and has the potential to be a Steve McNair/McNabb in their prime with 3 to 4 years of dominant QB play and a steady franchise guy the rest of the way.

[soflbillsfan]

2 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

The issue I have with Allen is he didnt show improvement he had 56% in 2016 and 56.3% in 2017...With Stafford his 3 years improved in college going from 52.4 all the way up to 61%. Im not comfortable with going up and trading for a guy who didnt show much improvement in college very questionable accuracy only to have a big arm. He is boom or bust on potential I am more comfortable of them giving up picks to get a guy who has shown more consistency and improved over their college time. People have critiqued Allen saying his accuracy is bad, he cant read defenses and he holds on to the ball to long. Moving up to 2 or 4 to get that guy is untrust worthy to me. If the bills were pick 2 and had all their other picks then fine go for it but trading multiple picks for that would suck.

To me he reminds me of a brock osweiler at best a Ryan Tannehill. I was all for him last offseason had he come out and then watching and hearing his breakdown this year I lost that hope for him. I want a qb and hope they get the right one but to me this guy screams bust. Everyone is talking about how he has improved with a qb coach but good qbs like Manning and Marino have said when you practice mechanics and tweak stuff you can repeat it over and over but when a pass rusher is coming at you ready to mess you up in a live game your memory muscle kicks in and goes back to the old ways. Which his feet work are sloppy which throws off the accuracy, with or without talent around them he should be throwing balls.  What really catches my eye is that people love his big arm but out of the 4 qbs in the draft he has had one of the worst uncatchable ratings of passes 15 yards or more at 26.1%. So what is a big arm good for if your not accurate. Tyrod was 53% this year of uncatchable balls i dont know if i want to see that type of throwing for more years.

I rather take the guy who has a chip on his shoulder which people consider a "character issue" for him but tom brady doing the same thing on the sidelines by yelling at McDaniels or talking **** people say its okay for him to do. Mayfield is the grinder who has had to work for everything first one in last one out in film room, in practice etc. He also has the attitude bills need to lead the squad. Again Tyrod great human being but if you look at any of the videos in the locker room or any team members talking about getting guys pumped up it wasnt Tyrod doing it he was a follower and not a leader. Can this kid from Wyoming be a leader or is he a choir boy and just saying what media wants him to say like Brock did when he had to come in to take over for Peyton the year they went to the superbowl and then during when a team paid him that contract? 

[Billsfaninptown]

17 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

Stafford also had the luxury of AJ Green in his final season. 

I have heard some national media and draft pundits say these negatives about Allen but most of it from what I have seen is the fans and amateur box score scouts. Guys like McShay, DJ, Brooks and Mayock have no reason to build up Allen in an already strong QB class yet they all agree based on potential, Allen is worthy of a high selection. Is Allen going to need a strong D and running game to succeed early? Absolutely. But there is zero questions about character and head injuries which he has among physical traits over the other guys outside of Darnold IMO.

I can completely understand why fans are uncomfortable or would prefer someone else, but some of the hot takes on social media and this website on the draft forum are so funny to me. I think Allen is Cam Newton at worst with about a third of the rushing success and has the potential to be a Steve McNair/McNabb in their prime with 3 to 4 years of dominant QB play and a steady franchise guy the rest of the way.

A lot of the people that are Allen apologists are making a lot of assumptions and excuses. I hear a lot of if's and a lot of people that are against Allen bring up numbers and data. The fact is the tape and the data both agree that Allen is the least pro ready of any of the projected top 4 QB's. You can say IF he has a strong run game, and IF he improves, but right now he is a very risky pick and I don't want to give up a ton of picks to move up and get him. If he falls to us or if we move up just a couple of spots and give up minimal draft capital then I would be okay with that. You say Allen is Cam Newton at the worst? I think that's a stretch. Newton performed better in college against SEC defenses. Allen was in the Mountain West. Allen did very little to show that he can uplift the talent around him like Cam did. I feel like you're trying to justify Allen just in case we draft him, but I hear very little factual points to support your argument, You could very well be right and Allen turns out to be a franchise QB. I am still in doubt after watching a ton of Mountain West and Pac 12 football.

[Trentwannabe]

1 hour ago, Billsfaninptown said:

bring up numbers and data

There is always more to it then that though. If there wasn't then Falk and Rudolph would be the first two picks in the draft.

1 hour ago, Billsfaninptown said:

Newton performed better in college against SEC defenses. Allen was in the Mountain West. Allen did very little to show that he can uplift the talent around him like Cam did. I feel like you're trying to justify Allen just in case we draft him, but I hear very little factual points to support your argument, You could very well be right and Allen turns out to be a franchise QB. I am still in doubt after watching a ton of Mountain West and Pac 12 football.

I am talking NFL Newton who doesn't complete 60% of his passes and needed a great defense and incredibly good run game with three big targets to get to a SB. And if we want to play that game, Newton played in a spread offense with NFL weapons while at Auburn. Allen best weapons were in 2016 and the best NFL prospect was a 5th round RB who got cut midway through the season and is on his 2nd team. There is only so much a QB can lift his players up if the physical gifts are not there. How can Allen throw a guy open if he can't get separation or adjust to a ball. Allen played against bad competition but he also had bad players. 

 

1 hour ago, Billsfaninptown said:

I feel like you're trying to justify Allen just in case we draft him, but I hear very little factual points to support your argument

I trust the front office. I don't care enough about these prospects to talk myself into liking one. As for facts, that is all relative anyway. There is no one single fact that proves Allen being a HOF or a bust. Just educated guesses and opinions. 

[LeeEvans]

36 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

There is always more to it then that though. If there wasn't then Falk and Rudolph would be the first two picks in the draft.

I am talking NFL Newton who doesn't complete 60% of his passes and needed a great defense and incredibly good run game with three big targets to get to a SB. And if we want to play that game, Newton played in a spread offense with NFL weapons while at Auburn. Allen best weapons were in 2016 and the best NFL prospect was a 5th round RB who got cut midway through the season and is on his 2nd team. There is only so much a QB can lift his players up if the physical gifts are not there. How can Allen throw a guy open if he can't get separation or adjust to a ball. Allen played against bad competition but he also had bad players. 

 

I trust the front office. I don't care enough about these prospects to talk myself into liking one. As for facts, that is all relative anyway. There is no one single fact that proves Allen being a HOF or a bust. Just educated guesses and opinions. 

This is my only gripe with the pro-Allen debate. Allen also gets to play against the same level as talent. It's not like he's playing SEC talent with a bunch of walk ons. This is definitely not an attack on your post just a general draft talk point. 

I personally don't want Allen, I just think he has far and away the most bust potential out of all of the QBs, Jackson and Randolph included. Scouts seem to just rave over him because of his arm but the entirety of his remaining body of work just doesn't back up where a lot of the analyst rate him. I don't think he is a guaranteed failure but if we trade three first round picks and select him over someone like Rosen I just can't pretend to be comfortable with the selection. I think Mahomes is a more polished passer than Allen is in all honesty and that terrifies me. 

[Trentwannabe]

1 minute ago, LeeEvans said:

This is my only gripe with the pro-Allen debate. Allen also gets to play against the same level as talent. It's not like he's playing SEC talent with a bunch of walk ons. This is definitely not an attack on your post just a general draft talk point. 

I personally don't want Allen, I just think he has far and away the most bust potential out of all of the QBs, Jackson and Randolph included. Scouts seem to just rave over him because of his arm but the entirety of his remaining body of work just doesn't back up where a lot of the analyst rate him. I don't think he is a guaranteed failure but if we trade three first round picks and select him over someone like Rosen I just can't pretend to be comfortable with the selection. I think Mahomes is a more polished passer than Allen is in all honesty and that terrifies me. 

I get what you're saying, but like I had mentioned after that point, there is only so much he can do. I think he did uplift his team which was evident with them losing to San Jose St with Allen out of the line up.

I definitely like Allen more then most, but I too would be so mad and upset if we traded up to 2 to select him. I honestly think we could go to 5 or 6 (if Chubb is gone) to get him. In my mock draft dropping tomorrow (shameless hint  ) I have us going to 5 to get Allen giving up picks 12, and 22 but also picking up Denver's compensatory 3rd (99th overall). 

[Yibbyl]

I hate the idea of drafting for potential in the 1st round and that's how I view Allen...unpolished potential. To trade up in order to draft for potential makes me really cringe. I want proven performance from our 1st round capital. Period. Really nothing else for me to add at this point. The fact that our FO has checked Allen out doesn't freak me out. They are just doing their due diligence...as they should.

[Trentwannabe]

6 hours ago, Yibbyl said:

I hate the idea of drafting for potential in the 1st round and that's how I view Allen...unpolished potential. To trade up in order to draft for potential makes me really cringe. I want proven performance from our 1st round capital. Period. Really nothing else for me to add at this point. The fact that our FO has checked Allen out doesn't freak me out. They are just doing their due diligence...as they should.

I mean isn't everyone being drafted on their potential? I know what you're saying but the reality is there is really no correlation between college stats, starts etc and success in the NFL. There are countless guys who started very little or did nothing at the college level but exploded in the NFL and vice versa. 

I can understand the thought process of Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen being safer picks but IMO they have just as much of a chance to bust as Allen for their own various reasons. 

[soflbillsfan]

52 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

I mean isn't everyone being drafted on their potential? I know what you're saying but the reality is there is really no correlation between college stats, starts etc and success in the NFL. There are countless guys who started very little or did nothing at the college level but exploded in the NFL and vice versa. 

I can understand the thought process of Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen being safer picks but IMO they have just as much of a chance to bust as Allen for their own various reasons. 

Allen is being based solely on potential where as darnold, rosen, and mayfield have all proved something in college. They have shown improvements in every category on the field. What has allen done that shows he is capable of getting better? Combine pro day where he is in shorts and a t shirt with out any distractions coming at him like in real time. Watch his tape yea the arm is nice but he is incapable of reading defenses and it has shown time and time again. His accuracy is the worst out of the top 4 and could be argued as the worst out of the top 6 qbs. He holds on to the ball way to long and causes sacks. Brock Osweiler and Mike Glennon were told similar things coming out of college. You can only do so much with making adjustments to your mechanics. You either have it or you dont and I think most of us see him not having it. If bills stay at 12 and miss out on the other 3 guys then so be it and land him at 12 but in no way should they move ahead of the jets or broncos to land him over mayfield and/or rosen those guys have more potential to be ready to go week 1 if need be where allen may need 2-3 years to learn before going. 

[Trentwannabe]

2 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

Allen is being based solely on potential where as darnold, rosen, and mayfield have all proved something in college

My point is (and this really is just playing devils advocate) is that what they did in college doesn't mean squat for being successful in the NFL. Its all projections. And IF they were to all reach their full potential (I'd argue Mayfield and Rosen already have) Allen would be the best QB from the draft.

2 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

He holds on to the ball way to long and causes sacks

This honestly just seems made up. He was sacked less then Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold AND  Jackson. 

I have Allen 4th on my board and I don't necessarily consider myself an Allen fan, but the hate this kid is getting and the outlandish hot takes about him are hilarious. 

[soflbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Trentwannabe said:

My point is (and this really is just playing devils advocate) is that what they did in college doesn't mean squat for being successful in the NFL. Its all projections. And IF they were to all reach their full potential (I'd argue Mayfield and Rosen already have) Allen would be the best QB from the draft.

This honestly just seems made up. He was sacked less then Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold AND  Jackson. 

I have Allen 4th on my board and I don't necessarily consider myself an Allen fan, but the hate this kid is getting and the outlandish hot takes about him are hilarious. 

Josh Allen played 27 games total and the last 2 years it was 25 games and he was sacked 49 times. Baker Mayfield played 27 games the last 2 years and he was sacked 43 times. Josh Rosen only played 17 games and was injured and was well known for having an atrocious oline was sacked 45 times in the 30 total games he played. Sam Darnold played 27 games in the 2 years of college and was sacked 35 times. Not only was Allen sacked the most you he played the least amount of games...Stats can be looked up online if you need a link.

No one is hating on him or atleast I am not hating on him. I just dont want to see the bills move up on the draft for a guy who isnt ready for the NFL. If he was drafted late 1st or even 2nd round where he should go he wont catch much flack if he busts just ask Paxton Lynch. The fact hes being discussed at top 5 is worrisome for his career especially if he goes ahead of the other 3 qbs that are ready for the nfl more so then him. 

[Billsfaninptown]

24 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Josh Allen played 27 games total and the last 2 years it was 25 games and he was sacked 49 times. Baker Mayfield played 27 games the last 2 years and he was sacked 43 times. Josh Rosen only played 17 games and was injured and was well known for having an atrocious oline was sacked 45 times in the 30 total games he played. Sam Darnold played 27 games in the 2 years of college and was sacked 35 times. Not only was Allen sacked the most you he played the least amount of games...Stats can be looked up online if you need a link.

No one is hating on him or atleast I am not hating on him. I just dont want to see the bills move up on the draft for a guy who isnt ready for the NFL. If he was drafted late 1st or even 2nd round where he should go he wont catch much flack if he busts just ask Paxton Lynch. The fact hes being discussed at top 5 is worrisome for his career especially if he goes ahead of the other 3 qbs that are ready for the nfl more so then him. 

To piggy back off of this, here's the total passing attempts and sacks for the top 4 QB's the past two seasons.

Josh Rosen- 683 attempts, 39 sacks, 5.7% sack rate

Baker Mayfield- 762 attempts, 44 sacks, 5.8% sack rate

Sam Darnold- 846 attempts, 35 sacks, 4.1% sack rate

Josh Allen- 643 attempts, 48 sacks, 7.5% sack rate

[LeeEvans]

Gotta say. I'm seeing a lot more teams starting to be open to trading down and I think we wait until 5 or 6 to trade up. I'm not sure who will be available then but the trade will be less costly and I think that is when we make our move. 

[soflbillsfan]

13 hours ago, LeeEvans said:

Gotta say. I'm seeing a lot more teams starting to be open to trading down and I think we wait until 5 or 6 to trade up. I'm not sure who will be available then but the trade will be less costly and I think that is when we make our move. 

it all comes down to what player is taken at 1 and what players beane want...If Bills dont want allen and browns take him at 1, then it can all fall by giants taking Barkley, leaving the 3 qbs still available to jets which allows the bills to work with browns at 4 denver at 5 and colts at 6