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The BILLievers

The Josh Rosen Hype / Rumor Train to Buffalo

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I'll never understand the argument of not going hard after a franchise QB because of other holes. What the hell is the point of filling those holes if you don't have a QB who can win you a championship?

I get you don't want a David Carr situation but the cupboard is not bare in Buffalo. The front 7 of the D needs an overhaul but that isn't a one year fix anyway. The Bills have two legit targets for a young QB (Benjamin, Clay) with the potential of another in Zay Jones. 

McCoy is playing at a high level and this is a deep RB class where a future starter could be had in round 5. 

I for one would be thrilled if we got a franchise QB by trading two first, a second our 4th and something next year. Then get a C/G(Round 2), a RB(Round 5), DL(Round 3) and a CB(Round 5) in the draft. And in free agency we grabbed a DL and a LB to start. 

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39 minutes ago, Trentwannabe said:

I'll never understand the argument of not going hard after a franchise QB because of other holes. What the hell is the point of filling those holes if you don't have a QB who can win you a championship?

I get you don't want a David Carr situation but the cupboard is not bare in Buffalo. The front 7 of the D needs an overhaul but that isn't a one year fix anyway. The Bills have two legit targets for a young QB (Benjamin, Clay) with the potential of another in Zay Jones. 

McCoy is playing at a high level and this is a deep RB class where a future starter could be had in round 5. 

I for one would be thrilled if we got a franchise QB by trading two first, a second our 4th and something next year. Then get a C/G(Round 2), a RB(Round 5), DL(Round 3) and a CB(Round 5) in the draft. And in free agency we grabbed a DL and a LB to start. 

I can try to explain it. Im all for going hard for a franchise qb but by drafting a qb in the 1st rd doesnt necessarily mean he is franchise material. The success rate on getting one is essentially 1 in 10 qbs or 2 in 10 if you want to be generous about it. So giving up 4-5 picks on a qb who is likely to be a franchise guys is 10-20% where you have a better chance of them being a bust. Also this defines the organization on a move like this. If it hits then they are the next Mike Tomlin, Bill Belichec or heck even Marvin Lewis where they stay 10-15 years as HC and then beane at GM. Statistically it going that way are low where there is a greater chance of them becoming a bust which leads the HC and GM out the door with in 2-3 years. Spending money on a top FA that has produced at the prolevel is less riskier and can easily get out of where giving up those draft picks can set a franchise back several years. This is why people argue the risk on putting all your draft picks essentially in one basket and it can fail miserably. Sticking with Tyrod and drafting those other positions like you mentioned I get isnt the right move. I as sure as heck do not want tyrod starting next year but I also dont want the bills to pull a washington and draft the next RG3 where they gave up 3 first round picks for 1 decent season of production. They havent had a chance to build up their team because of that draft, they tried making up for it by paying players to plug holes instead of building through the draft

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So @soflbillsfan whats the alternative? Because the risk will always be there when selecting a QB. They are going to have to do it eventually. At least this year there is perceived two franchise guys maybe a 3rd. AND the Bills have the draft capital to not mortgage the future in doing so. 

The last two times they took a QB in round 1 they waited and took a WR first (Lee Evans) instead of pulling the trigger to get Big Ben and then settled for Lossman. Then in 2013 they built up the team the way Gailey and Nix wanted it but Gailey got canned anyway and Buddy Nix was so desperate for a QB and the whole world knew it we had no choice but to pull the trigger despite a well known weak draft class. 

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2 hours ago, soflbillsfan said:

I can try to explain it. Im all for going hard for a franchise qb but by drafting a qb in the 1st rd doesnt necessarily mean he is franchise material. The success rate on getting one is essentially 1 in 10 qbs or 2 in 10 if you want to be generous about it. So giving up 4-5 picks on a qb who is likely to be a franchise guys is 10-20% where you have a better chance of them being a bust. Also this defines the organization on a move like this. If it hits then they are the next Mike Tomlin, Bill Belichec or heck even Marvin Lewis where they stay 10-15 years as HC and then beane at GM. Statistically it going that way are low where there is a greater chance of them becoming a bust which leads the HC and GM out the door with in 2-3 years. Spending money on a top FA that has produced at the prolevel is less riskier and can easily get out of where giving up those draft picks can set a franchise back several years. This is why people argue the risk on putting all your draft picks essentially in one basket and it can fail miserably. Sticking with Tyrod and drafting those other positions like you mentioned I get isnt the right move. I as sure as heck do not want tyrod starting next year but I also dont want the bills to pull a washington and draft the next RG3 where they gave up 3 first round picks for 1 decent season of production. They havent had a chance to build up their team because of that draft, they tried making up for it by paying players to plug holes instead of building through the draft

I know there's no changing your mind. But–for every draft failure story there are plenty of successes too. We're at where we're at because we've been on the less-risky side, signing mediocre stop gaps every time we miss on a low-end QB in the draft (Losman, Manuel, Trent Edwards). Stuck in mediocrity sucks, we've been in it my entire lifetime.

I know you're all for getting Cousins, but at the price he is at, does the production truly match? I don't think so at all. Will he get us to the playoffs? Possibly. Super Bowl? I doubt it. He didn't do that in Washington.

A lot of us want to swing for the fences on a top tier draft prospect like Rosen because he gives us the best chance to be in a position like the Patriots, Packers or Steelers. You hit with that pick, you're set for at least a decade. Don't forget, there's no other position in the NFL that has the longevity of a QB. If we swing for the fences and miss, we're in a position to draft a top tier QB the following year. By continuing our trend, we'll keep picking in a spot where we need to trade up, or take the 3rd/4th/5th best QB available and we'll have less draft picks/ammo to move up with if we need to. This year we have the ammo, and there are very good prospects available. 

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47 minutes ago, NickChowaniec said:

I know there's no changing your mind. But–for every draft failure story there are plenty of successes too. We're at where we're at because we've been on the less-risky side, signing mediocre stop gaps every time we miss on a low-end QB in the draft (Losman, Manuel, Trent Edwards). Stuck in mediocrity sucks, we've been in it my entire lifetime.

I know you're all for getting Cousins, but at the price he is at, does the production truly match? I don't think so at all. Will he get us to the playoffs? Possibly. Super Bowl? I doubt it. He didn't do that in Washington.

A lot of us want to swing for the fences on a top tier draft prospect like Rosen because he gives us the best chance to be in a position like the Patriots, Packers or Steelers. You hit with that pick, you're set for at least a decade. Don't forget, there's no other position in the NFL that has the longevity of a QB. If we swing for the fences and miss, we're in a position to draft a top tier QB the following year. By continuing our trend, we'll keep picking in a spot where we need to trade up, or take the 3rd/4th/5th best QB available and we'll have less draft picks/ammo to move up with if we need to. This year we have the ammo, and there are very good prospects available. 

Yea cousins is my top choice and production is what a franchise qb we want if any qb we draft what are your expectations 4K+ yards 65-69% completion 25+ td. It is all relative no matter what a franchise qb you go to pay what the going rate is for this year as next year can be over 200 million. As the salary cap goes up the bigger the contracts will get. I get it the bills will likely not land him but I also dont want to see the bills giving up so much to move up. They could have landed someone like Watson this past year and not given up anything. I dont necessarily care about which player they get I just dont want to give up a ton of picks. They can go in to free agency and try someone different that may work out. We all know Case Keenum had a great season and no one expected that. Bills can find someone like that for now and build up the team as they are molding a team for the future by going younger. I just hate to see them go full rebuild by going all in on a rookie who may or may not be on the team 2-3 years from now. We will see in a few weeks when free agency comes and Ill be good with what beane and mcdermott does im not going to be pissed as they proved themselves this year

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2 minutes ago, soflbillsfan said:

Yea cousins is my top choice and production is what a franchise qb we want if any qb we draft what are your expectations 4K+ yards 65-69% completion 25+ td. It is all relative no matter what a franchise qb you go to pay what the going rate is for this year as next year can be over 200 million. As the salary cap goes up the bigger the contracts will get. I get it the bills will likely not land him but I also dont want to see the bills giving up so much to move up. They could have landed someone like Watson this past year and not given up anything. I dont necessarily care about which player they get I just dont want to give up a ton of picks. They can go in to free agency and try someone different that may work out. We all know Case Keenum had a great season and no one expected that. Bills can find someone like that for now and build up the team as they are molding a team for the future by going younger. I just hate to see them go full rebuild by going all in on a rookie who may or may not be on the team 2-3 years from now. We will see in a few weeks when free agency comes and Ill be good with what beane and mcdermott does im not going to be pissed as they proved themselves this year

We've been trying that route forever man, that's what we're saying. It's not working time and time again, enough is enough. Trying to build around a mediocre QB is going to get us to the same spot over and over. 

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Gotta say, IF we could get Rosen, I'd like that as we'd have a shot of having him for as much as a decade and I believe he's hands down the best QB in this draft. But if trading up high enough to realistically land him isn't an option, I agree with soflbillsfan and think we should go hard after Cousins. Yeah, Cousins gives us less of a chance to have him around for 10+ years, but I think it is fair to call him a sure thing at this point. Given that both the Redskins' D has been even worse than ours and their strength of schedule was tougher in Cousins time there, I would hardly put the lack of Washington's playoff success on him.

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We have to be realistic, Cousins will not sign with Buffalo or Minny although Minny's domed stadium would interest him, our weather will not and we would have to pay him around 35 to 40 million a year to have a shot and I seriously doubt our owner will fork out that type of money in a small market city like Buffalo. Cousins will probably sign with the Jets or Denver, the Jets because they can afford him and can offer him outside income from advertizing agencies or Denver which has solid management and can offer him a possible quick ride to the SB.

Teddy Bridgewater, who in all likelihood, will be a FA after Minny cuts him, but whose arm strength is very questionable for our weather, is another option, or there is either Allen or Jackson, both of whom have very strong arms??? Physically, Allen is a carbon copy of Jim Kelly, if he develops, but Jackson would be something quite different. We would have to trade up to around 15th pick to get Allen or possibly, we can wait and get Jackson around 18-21.

I think we have to get either Allen or Jackson, I believe it will be our only option and just pray that whoever we get, develops into a solid Franchise QB. Waiting and selecting someone in round 2, carries less than a 6% chance for success. 

QB's do not just come around because you want one, you have to take serious risks to get a solid franchise QB and teams that do not go after one, no matter how many failures, can wait 50 years to get lucky, that is how long it took Detroit to replace their last franchise QB before finally getting Stafford, so I do not see that as an option if we want to be a contender over the next decade!!!

I think we will be trading up, but you can forget about Darnold or Rosen, those teams with high picks will only trade with a team holding a top 10 pick in return. For us to get a shot at either would cost us 3 firsts, 2 seconds and a 3rd and a 5th and I cannot see us paying that price, so get ready to welcome Allen or Jackson, with Rudolph as a possible option!!!

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On 20/02/2018 at 6:49 PM, soflbillsfan said:

All in all I would much rather pay Kirk Cousins. 5 years 125 million (85 mil guaranteed 75 in the first 3 years) is where I think he would be happy with if he truly believes that being a contender is more important of getting paid. 

If he wants that he'll go to Minnesota.

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22 hours ago, BigMountainGoat said:

If he wants that he'll go to Minnesota.

My guess he will ask for 175 million guaranteed over 5 seasons and settle for 150 million. Worse yet, he will likely get it, as potential franchise QB's do not come on the market practically ever and it will be a very hot bidding war. What that will do to a team is anybody's guess???

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1 hour ago, Iamcanadian said:

My guess he will ask for 175 million guaranteed over 5 seasons and settle for 150 million. Worse yet, he will likely get it, as potential franchise QB's do not come on the market practically ever and it will be a very hot bidding war. What that will do to a team is anybody's guess???

If he prioritises money he'll go the Jets, if he prioritises success he'll go to the Vikings. Either way he won't go to the Bills

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6 hours ago, BigMountainGoat said:

If he prioritises money he'll go the Jets, if he prioritises success he'll go to the Vikings. Either way he won't go to the Bills

Mainly because they likely won't even offer a contract. 

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I think it's pretty close to 0% chance the bills offer Cousins to be one of the highest paid QBs in the NFL.

Sean McDermott had a quote this morning at the combine that was essentially : "People can't jump the gun because of last year, this team is reset and we have a long ways to go". That doesn't sound like a team that's about to break the bank for a win now QB.

Top 5 Rookie QBs I want:

1. Josh Rosen

2. Baker Mayfield

3. Sam Darnold

4. Lamar Jackson

5. Josh Allen

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I just love how everyone keeps upping his contract it went from 125 mil before Alex Smith was traded less than a month ago and now that 125 is less than the guarantees people are throwing out and will make 200 mil on a new contract. I am not sure why everyone assumes he will be getting this as teams will have a set cap and even though he may have leverage as the best qb in free agency since Drew Brees they will not be giving out absurd contracts as they know this will set the market for other QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, etc on future contracts. Owners arent going to be that stupid to quickly jump the set contract. We will see in 2 weeks but I do not see him making over 150 mil in overall contract and the guarantees wont hit 100 mil. 

Also people keep saying its a small market, im sorry but financially the owner is top 5 in the NFL stadium sells out and the fans have proven to show up at other markets. Its not a popular market like NYC, Dallas, LA, or Boston but thats 25 other markets that arent in there either so are they all small too? His new contract isn't going to change much other then the advertising market will shift to the team he is at from the washington market but hes not going to make a crap ton more money by going to an NYC market based on advertisements. Everyone keeps saying he wont come to Buffalo but we honestly do not know. Every move the bills have made since McDermott has stepped in the building no one was ever notified of the change until it was done so anything is possible. Sources have yet to be correct on the bills until the moves were done so Im not buying if they are or arent interested in Kirk based on a source cause they are full of garbage.

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2 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

I think it's pretty close to 0% chance the bills offer Cousins to be one of the highest paid QBs in the NFL.

Sean McDermott had a quote this morning at the combine that was essentially : "People can't jump the gun because of last year, this team is reset and we have a long ways to go". That doesn't sound like a team that's about to break the bank for a win now QB.

Top 5 Rookie QBs I want:

1. Josh Rosen

2. Baker Mayfield

3. Sam Darnold

4. Lamar Jackson

5. Josh Allen

we will see in two weeks what route the bills go in free agency but to pick one sentence out of a 45 min conversation to decipher what he is thinking is silly. Mcdermott and Beane want to win plain and simple if they feel that Cousins being the highest paid qb in the league gets them to win they will do it. Keep in mind coaches last an average of 2-3 years in the league unless they continue to show their presence in the Playoffs or they are the coach of the Bengals. So I expect whatever moves the bills organization does is the way they feel is the best chance for them to win in 2018 and on. If moving up and giving up 4-5 draft picks to land their qb they better hope that every position is answered on the defense and this qb better be able to start week 1. Giving up that much draft picks they dont have the luxury of letting him sit the first year as they have far to many needs overall.

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