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2017 Adusted Pythagorean Wins


skibrett15

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2 minutes ago, GongKong said:

I meant browns suck and are free wins that skew stats for teams that get to play them positively. Not that Browns are tough themselves.

I know what you meant, I was joking that we aren’t bad, but that everyone else must be incredible.  “How else do you go 4-44”...

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Damn, I just figured this all up. Even as bad as the Browns were this year, there were still 11 other teams with a lower variance of point differentials between division and non-division games. I didn't expect that.

Tm Variance Division PD Inter PD
DAL -82 52 -30
CIN -67 4 -63
DET -66 50 -16
NYJ -60 -12 -72
NYG -50 -46 -96
TEN -46 12 -34
IND -41 -50 -91
MIA -40 -36 -76
SFO -36 -8 -44
KAN -32 54 22
DEN -29 -32 -61
CLE -24 -76 -100
JAX -13 81 68
HOU -12 -43 -55
OAK -12 -30 -42
ATL 0 19 19
NWE 4 79 83
BUF 5 -31 -26
GNB 12 -38 -26
PIT 12 43 55
ARI 14 -40 -26
NOR 20 51 71
LAR 31 59 90
BAL 34 29 63
MIN 40 45 85
TAM 47 -47 0
SEA 56 -11 45
PHI 56 53 109
CHI 58 -57 1
LAC 67 8 75
WAS 72 -59 13
CAR 82 -23 59
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2 hours ago, theJ said:

Patriots win an unusual number of close games too.

Not really.

In 2017 they went 6-3 in 1-score games (including playoffs.)

That's obviously a good record, but nothing like the 9-2 the Raiders and Giants went.

Most of the games the Patriots win are by multiple scores, the Raiders and Giants won 3 and 2 games respectively by more than a score in 2016.

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10 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

Not really.

In 2017 they went 6-3 in 1-score games (including playoffs.)

That's obviously a good record, but nothing like the 9-2 the Raiders and Giants went.

Most of the games the Patriots win are by multiple scores, the Raiders and Giants won 3 and 2 games respectively by more than a score in 2016.

Maybe not a huge amount in any given season, but since Brady has been a starter, they've been north of their Pythagorean expectation for 14 out of 17 seasons.  2 seasons slightly under with only 1 season below by 1.5 wins.  You don't get there without winning a lot of close ones.

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1 hour ago, areksoo said:
11 hours ago, Bolts223 said:

Not really.

In 2017 they went 6-3 in 1-score games (including playoffs.)

That's obviously a good record, but nothing like the 9-2 the Raiders and Giants went.

Most of the games the Patriots win are by multiple scores, the Raiders and Giants won 3 and 2 games respectively by more than a score in 2016.

Maybe not a huge amount in any given season, but since Brady has been a starter, they've been north of their Pythagorean expectation for 14 out of 17 seasons.  2 seasons slightly under with only 1 season below by 1.5 wins.  You don't get there without winning a lot of close ones.

Yep.  I compiled this a while ago, but here it is again.  Since 2001, the Patriots are 73-34 in 7 point games (34-15 in 3 point games).  My assertion in the other thread i posted this in is that one score games are not necessarily coin flips like people like to claim.  There exist good teams that know how to win close games, and teams that don't know how to win close games.  And that occasionally those teams will kill the Pythagorean formula.

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5 hours ago, theJ said:

Yep.  I compiled this a while ago, but here it is again.  Since 2001, the Patriots are 73-34 in 7 point games (34-15 in 3 point games).  My assertion in the other thread i posted this in is that one score games are not necessarily coin flips like people like to claim.  There exist good teams that know how to win close games, and teams that don't know how to win close games.  And that occasionally those teams will kill the Pythagorean formula.

I agree with you that winning close games isn't random.

I'm saying that no team can realistically expect to go 9-2 in one-score games like the Raiders and Giants did in 2016 on any consistent basis. When a team ONLY wins close games, that usually means that they were a fluke.

The Patriots blow plenty of teams out, and they are always among the highest point differentials in the league.

 

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