Beck Bristow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 The Roark trade is low key, but I think a really good move. One guy that can give a full season of competent pitching and lots of innings. If we can pull off Bailey trade to the Dodgers for Kemp and Wood, that would be good too. Things are happening! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted December 14, 2018 Author Share Posted December 14, 2018 I like the Roark trade quite a bit. Sure Tanner Rainey can throw 100, but it's as straight as an arrow and he has not control over his slider whatsoever. AAA hitters chase his slider out of the zone. Big league hitters don't and then crush his fast straight fastball. As it stands now, Roark is our #2 starter behind only Castillo. So hopefully we sign Keuchel, or make another trade. Keuchel may not be a true ace, but he'd be the #1 on this staff, at least to start out. Castillo could still overtake him if he gets anywhere near his ceiling. He was very good July-Sept last year after a brutal start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Reds are being interesting. Depending on if they can add another dependable starting pitcher and what it takes to do it, this team can do some damage. I feel like Schebler may be tradable now. Still don't know about cf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 At this moment either Puig or Schebler has to man CF. Given that we threw Choo out there, I think it could be doable. With the uncertainty of the reliability of defensive metrics, it'd be interesting to see what the real world result would be of that bad of a defensive OF. As of now, here's a random guess of the Reds opening day 25 man roster: 1. Jesse Winker, LF 2. Joey Votto, 1B 3. Eugenio Suarez, 3B 4. Yasiel Puig, RF 5. Scooter Gennett, 2B 6. Scott Schebler, CF 7. Jose Peraza, SS 8. Tucker Barnhart, C BN: Matt Kemp, LF BN: Connor Joe, Util BN: Phil Ervin, OF BN: Alex Blandino, MiF BN: Kurt Casali or Kyle Farmer, C 1. Luis Castillo 2. Alex Wood 3. Tanner Roark 4. Anthony Desclafani 5. Tyler Mahle LR: Sal Romano MR: Brandon Finnegan MR: Amir Garrett MR: David Hernandez MR: Jared Hughes SU: Michael Lorenzen CL: Raisel Iglesias If the roster remains the same, I think the 4 OF (Puig, Winker, Schebler, Kemp) split time pretty evenly with Kemp and Schebler getting a little more rest, with Winker moving to RF when Kemp plays and Puig going to CF when Schebler sits. Maybe Kemp and Schebler hold up better starting 100-110 games and being first pinch hitters. Puig and Winker start 130-140 games assuming they stay healthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 I'd hate to give up on Stephenson, but that seems a legitimate prediction. Hopefully we add another starter so Mahle can start the season in AAA and be available in case of injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/5/2019 at 3:00 PM, Beck Bristow said: I'd hate to give up on Stephenson, but that seems a legitimate prediction. Hopefully we add another starter so Mahle can start the season in AAA and be available in case of injury. I defended Bob Steve for years, but if he doesn't earn his way onto the roster in spring training, I don't know how they hang on can anymore with him out of options. He turns 26 next month, and has a career -1.3 WAR over 133 IP. The pure stuff has never been the problem, but the control has just never come. He hasn't really had it since he was in Low A either. If he ends up DFA'd, I wonder if he clears waivers and could be sent back to Louisville? Ideally, he figures it out and earns the 5th spot, but I am far from hopeful at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Don't mind trading Long, but the competitive balance pick seems to be too much for a guy we hope is a good pitcher and are probably wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 14 hours ago, Beck Bristow said: Don't mind trading Long, but the competitive balance pick seems to be too much for a guy we hope is a good pitcher and are probably wrong. For context the CBA pick will be somewhere around 36-38. In 2017 we drafted Stuart Fairchild at 38. Think of it as Shed Long and Stuart Fairchild for Gray, the reliever, and the window to negotiate the extension with Gray. I don't like the opportunity cost of that pick, but odds are far greater some scrub who washes out in AA is picked there than a future all star is picked there. As for Gray, he was a good pitcher away from Yankee stadium last year, including in other hitters parks. He misses bats, and has a good ground ball rate. The Reds new pitching coach was also Gray's college coach at Vandy who helped make him a 1st rd pick. If Gray becomes even a stable mid rotation starter, then 4 years/$38 million (or 5 years/$50 million) is an incredible steal, and Gray still has the measurable to be a front line guy (velo, spin rates, etc...). Is it a risk? Absolutely, but one well worth taking for a pick and our 3rd or 4th option as a future 2nd baseman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted January 22, 2019 Author Share Posted January 22, 2019 Projected opening day roster as of right now: 1. Jesse Winker, LF 2. Joey Votto, 1B 3. Eugenio Suarez, 3B 4. Scooter Gennett, 2B 5. Yasiel Puig, RF 6. Scott Schebler, CF 7. Jose Peraza, SS 8. Tucker Barnhart, C 9. Pitcher BN: Matt Kemp, LF BN: Curt Casali, C BN: Alex Blandino, INF BN: Phillip Ervin, OF BN: Connor Joe, Util 1. Sonny Gray 2. Alex Wood 3. Luis Castillo 4. Tanner Roark 5. Anthony Desclafani LR: Sal Romano MR: Brandon Finnegan MR: Amir Garrett MR: David Hernandez MR: Jared Hughes SU: Michael Lorenzen CL: Raisel Iglesias Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 (edited) That looks pretty locked in to me other than Romano who I think still has an option and Finnegan. Interesting to see the work on the field. Edited January 24, 2019 by Beck Bristow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 While the rumors are dying down, the supposed package that was being offered for JT Realmuto was centered around Jonathan India, Vlad Gutierrez, and a third lower ranked prospect. Have to say that lineup could have been pretty fierce. 1. Winker, LF 2. Votto, 1B 3. Suarez, 3B 4. Gennett, 2B 5. Puig, RF 6. Schebler, CF 7. Realmuto, C 8. Peraza, SS or possibly with Senzel in CF 1. Senzel, CF 2. Votto, 1B 3. Suarez, 3B 4. Gennett, 2B 5. Puig, RF 6. Winker, LF 7. Realmuto, C 8. Peraza, SS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 I thought Barnhart was part of that deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 13 hours ago, Beck Bristow said: I thought Barnhart was part of that deal. That's the latest rumor I heard as well, which I heard after last Wednesday. Latest I've heard is that the Reds offer is India, Barnhart, and a third player, a lower ranked prospect along the lines of Jose Garcia, Stuart Fairchild, or Keury Mella. Supposedly the Reds offer is the best that's on the table with the Marlins hoping someone else ups the ante. With pitchers and catchers reporting next week, I think by the end of this weekend either they accept the Reds offer or someone else outbids them. I don't think they will want JTR in spring training. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Bristow Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 27 minutes ago, THE DUKE said: That's the latest rumor I heard as well, which I heard after last Wednesday. Latest I've heard is that the Reds offer is India, Barnhart, and a third player, a lower ranked prospect along the lines of Jose Garcia, Stuart Fairchild, or Keury Mella. Supposedly the Reds offer is the best that's on the table with the Marlins hoping someone else ups the ante. With pitchers and catchers reporting next week, I think by the end of this weekend either they accept the Reds offer or someone else outbids them. I don't think they will want JTR in spring training. Oops, I missed the date. That's not a bad offer. I like both those guys, but one is long term blocked at his two best spots, and the other isn't as good as the guy we get back. As long as they don't get too high for the third prospect, I'm happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE DUKE Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 Reds sign Zach Duke to a 1 year $2 mil deal. He'll likely be the left handed specialist in the bullpen with Amir Garrett being the more high leverage bullpen lefty. This tells me that Cody Reed either wins a rotation spot or is starting in AAA. 6 bullpen spots pretty much locked up: CL: Raisel Iglesias SU: Michael Lorenzen MR: Jared Hughes MR: Amir Garrett MR: David Hernandez| MR: Zach Duke So the question now is do the Reds go with a 7 man bullpen or 8 man bullpen. If they go with the 8 man pen that assures rule 5 pick Conner Joe gets returned and hinges on Blandino being healthy as he can back up all 4 IF spots. Kemp and a CF (Ervin) as bench OF's and Casali as the backup catcher. That leaves the following guys battling for 2 spots: Robert Stephenson Sal Romano Cody Reed Matt Bowman Brandon Finnegan Jimmy Herget Keury Mella Wandy Peralta Jesus Reyes Lucas Sims Jackson Stephens Matt Wisler Stephenson, Sims, and Wisler are all out of options, so that gives them a leg up on making the roster if all things else are equal or close enough. Herget, Reed, Finnegan, Mella, Peralta, and Reyes all have options so they would have to be dominant in spring training to force their way on the roster. Romano seems like a guy a lot of the pundits see starting the year in the bullpen, and I think that's where he ends up long term because of the lack of third pitch, which stinks because he's built like a workhorse, but it is what it is. He should be able to air out his FB and sit 96-99 in a short relief role though. If I had to say who ends up in the last two spots, i'd probably say Bob Steve and Sims. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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