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Cincinnati Reds Thread - Opening Day, where everyone is tied for 1st


THE DUKE

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With Schebler back and picking up where he left off, and Votto and Gennett starting to heat up a bit, the Reds have something that is starting to resemble an offense.  Suarez went 1-2 with a 2B and 2 BB in his first rehab start last night in AAA so he's likely back in a week or so.  Senzel will be up in a little over a month once we get past that super 2 date, and we really might be onto something.

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Taylor Trammell is only hitting .275 in High A so far, but he's lowered his K rate to 18.2%, raised his walk rate to 15.3%, has a .390 OBP, and a .522 SLG % in the most pitcher friendly league in baseball.  A .247 iso-P in that league is bringing the lumber.  For comparison, Nick Senzel's iso-P last year there was .171 as a 21, almost 22 year old.  Trammell is still 20 and doesn't turn 21 until after the season.  He may end up a middle of the order hitter moreso than a table setter, although i'll take an excellent walk rate anywhere in the lineup.  Between Trammell, Senzel, T Stephenson, Winker, Suarez, and Votto, the potential future Reds lineup looks designed to see a ton of pitches and wear pitchers out.

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New mock draft out at MLB Pipeline by Jim Callis.  His comments sound like he is starting to hear some rumblings, and he is as plugged into the draft as anybody.

https://www.mlb.com/news/college-players-lead-in-mlb-mock-draft/c-276190214?tid=151437456

From what he's saying, we're looking at college guys mostly.  He has us taking Singer (which I don't think I would, seems more like a back end starter to me, and not a huge fan of his delivery), with back up plans of Joey Bart if he makes it there or maybe Jonathan India (whom I'm higher on than most).  India doesn't have the wood bat track record that the Reds seem to like, but his tools are real and he's been an absolute monster this year in the SEC .392/.531/.791, 15 HR, more walks than K's, and 11 for 11 stealing bases (was timed at 3.84 to first earlier this season).  I'd try him at SS personally.

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Anthony Desclafani made a rehab start in AA earlier this week.  Threw 3 scoreless innings.  Michael Lorenzen is also rehabbing there and has made two appearances while only allowing a walk so far.  The Reds pitching staff might actually be competent in the near future.

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On ‎5‎/‎18‎/‎2018 at 9:40 PM, Beck Bristow said:

Curious who goes down when he comes  up. Mahle and Romano don't necessarily  deserve it, but it will certainly be one of them. Assuming no injury.

It should be Bailey, but will probably be Romano, who hasn't done himself any favors over his last 2-3 starts.  Homer can't be sent down, but he could be relegated to a long relief role, but they won't do that.

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Jim Callis with a new mock out:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-college-players-get-picked-early/c-278228058

Reds seem to be centering on one of Brady Singer, Nick Madrigal, or Jonathan India.  I'd be fine with any of the three.  Ceiling might not be the highest, but all three are college performers with at least one plus tool.  India might only have "above average" tools moreso than plus tools, but he's average to above average at all 5 tools.  I think he's got a plus hit tool though, Madrigal a double plus hit tool.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎6‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 2:46 PM, THE DUKE said:

I just can't shake the feeling that I'm about to be very underwhelmed by the Reds draft, and I drink the Kook Aid with the best of them.  I hope I'm wrong.

I wanted Carter Stewart, but not too upset with Jonathan India at 5.  Lyon Richardson seems like a good high upside flier to take in round 2, and Josiah Gray was the top D2 prospect in the draft and sounds like a strike thrower.  Loved the Siani pick in round 4 as he will get money well over slot value (most places had him in the top 40-50 prospects in the draft) and is a sure fire CF with a chance to hit for some power.

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As expected Siani gets well over slot as he signs for $2 million.  The Reds will need to save a little over $1 million from all their other picks to avoid being 5% over.  Siani has star potential.  Some think he might be the best defensive CF in the prep class.  Was a possible top 15 pick heading into the year but he didn't hit as well as he did his junior year this year.  Supposedly made some swing changes that didn't work out, but has flashed hitting ability and solid pop in the past.  I expect we'll get India a few hundred K below slot (and I think they had the number worked out before they took him) and that combined with the senior signs will make up the difference.

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All of the Reds top 10 round picks outside of Jonathan India (who is still playing in the CWS) are signed.  As long as India signs for $5.535 million or less, they will be under the 5% over their draft pool where the serious penalties occur.  So it's almost a certainty they had agreement on a number before they picked him.  My best guess is he signs for $5.5 million, but it'd be great if they could get him for $5 mil and try to sign a couple more HS picks from the later rounds.  With the extra stateside affiliate in Greeneville for rookie ball, they may try to sign more from the draft than they normally have the past few years.  They have 22 total players signed as of now.

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  • THE DUKE changed the title to Cincinnati Reds Thread - Opening Day, where everyone is tied for 1st

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