Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
VanS

Lamar Jackson should get 1st overall pick consideration...

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Danger said:

He reeks of RG3

The league struggled with RG3 year one. I think that VanS is spot on. I think that Jackson has a very good chance of being the best rookie QB. But I also know that the league eventually catches up with running QBs  or they get hurt. 

Edited by sammymvpknight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His floor is Atlanta Vick? That’s generous. 

His floor is probably Oakland Pryor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, VanS said:

I'm not sure people have the horses in the NFL to keep up with Lamar Jackson either.  As I said in my OP, people are seriously underrating this guys athleticism

Nobody's arguing that Lamar Jackson is a freak. I expect him to run a 4.3. But I also expect teams to muddle their rush to keep him in the pocket and attack from one side. It's going to push him to his left where there will be a defender sitting. Will he be faster than that defender? Absolutely. Will that defender be able to make the play with good pursuit angles if he's disengaged from a blocker? More times than not.

Lamar Jackson running will be difficult to stop, but I think his limitations as a passer are going to end up making him 1-dimensional and easy to defend. I want him to succeed for the pure freak factor that I'd be able to watch, but I have a feeling he's going to end up playing a different position than QB. Hell, I'd draft him in the 2nd-3rd round if he wasn't ever allowed to throw a football again. But the #1 pick? Absolutely not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, VanS said:

Just go and look back at previous drafts.  Going with the consensus regarding who should be the top prospects isn't exactly the path to take if you wanna be right.  The consensus is typically wrong. Going against the consensus is actually the smart move if you wanna be right.

giphy.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lamar needs to land in a situation with a creative offensive mind. If that happens, he can be a weapon. If it doesn't, he'll likely have his career stolen from him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, VanS said:

Just go and look back at previous drafts.  Going with the consensus regarding who should be the top prospects isn't exactly the path to take if you wanna be right.  The consensus is typically wrong.  Which is why the 1st round of most drafts is filled with busts 50% of the time.  Going against the consensus is actually the smart move if you wanna be right.  And I want to be right in my evaluations, so I'm just gonna go with what I believe not with what everyone else is saying is true regarding a player.  If I'm wrong, then so be it.  I'd rather be wrong for my own opinions rather than being wrong because I agreed with everyone else.

The "consensus" is routinely more right than otherwise. You're misattributing the idea that the vast majority of draft players will bust with the idea the first round is filled with busts. The first round is were you'll find more All-Pros and Pro Bowlers than any other round and teams are only getting better at drafting. 

Also, there's a reason there is a consensus. Good players will be liked by many people. Thus, consensus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

The league struggled with RG3 year one. I think that VanS is spot on. I think that Jackson has a very good chance of being the best rookie QB. But I also know that the league eventually catches up with running QBs  or they get hurt. 

You see that is the big drawback in taking a guy like Lamar 1st overall.  Even if he's shown good durability up to this point in his career, its not a guarantee to continue.  And when you run as much as he does, you're bound to put yourself in harms way.  Which is why the pocket passer is still in vogue.  You can't really invest $20 million in a QB that gets hit like a RB every game and expect him to play every snap of every game (as is required for franchise QBs).

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

The "consensus" is routinely more right than otherwise. You're misattributing the idea that the vast majority of draft players will bust with the idea the first round is filled with busts. The first round is were you'll find more All-Pros and Pro Bowlers than any other round and teams are only getting better at drafting. 

Also, there's a reason there is a consensus. Good players will be liked by many people. Thus, consensus.

I think you misunderstood my post.  I didn't say go against everything in the consensus.  For example, my top prospect in this year's draft is Saquon Barkley (like almost everyone else).   If my thinking was to simply go against what everyone else says then I wouldn't have Saquon Barkley and Sam Darnold rated so highly.

What I meant in that post is that I won't conform my views on a prospect simply because everyone else thinks the guy is all-world or garbage.  And if you go back and look at history you'll see that just because everyone agrees on something doesn't make it always right.  That was all.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, VanS said:

Completely disagree.  He's the QB in this class who should see the field first and is most likely to succeed early.  His strength is his athleticism.  That isn't gonna get better sitting on the bench.  He'll never be a pocket passer.  I wish people would stop trying to make him something he's not.  He's a generational athlete at the QB position.  Put him in an offense that plays to his strengths like Philly did this year with Nick Foles.

There is no doubt in my mind that Lamar Jackson can do what RG3 and Colin Kaepernick did in 2012 as a rookie. 

As he gets older and more experience, then you can work to develop him more as a passer.  But right now while he's young and a phenomenal athlete I say use him the way he was used in Louisville.  Make him a weapon in the run and pass game.

I have to agree, whoever drafts Jackson will have to fully commit to starting him right away and design an offense completely around his skills.

I think his potential is higher than RG3 and Kapernick because of his escapability. He reminds me of Vick, only a far more accurate passer, but I will have to see if he has Vick's ability to avoid a pass rush. If he has that in the minds of GM's, then he will go pretty high in the draft, if he doesn't, then he could fall to round 2.

Vick rarely got hurt, because he was impossible to tackle by a pass rusher and that is what you hope Jackson will be.

Edited by Iamcanadian

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His accuracy is just not good enough. If things break right, it can go well but more often than not, its going to be a bumpy ride (Cam Newton is my comp for what his playing style will mostly likely translate into). Others have more faith that it can improve but I'm too skeptical to spend a high pick betting on something that is pretty rare (that a QB actually becomes more accurate over time,  it is usually just better decisions and comp % but not accuracy).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

I have to agree, whoever drafts Jackson will have to fully commit to starting him right away and design an offense completely around his skills.

I think his potential is higher than RG3 and Kapernick because of his escapability. He reminds me of Vick, only a far more accurate passer, but I will have to see if he has Vick's ability to avoid a pass rush. If he has that in the minds of GM's, then he will go pretty high in the draft, if he doesn't, then he could fall to round 2.

Vick rarely got hurt, because he was impossible to tackle by a pass rusher and that is what you hope Jackson will be.

Exactly.  And from what I've seen thus far, I believe Lamar has the same ability.  The key will be can a GM build a team around a QB where his legs OR the threat of his legs will be a bigger factor in wins and losses than his arm.  I'm not sure NFL teams are creative enough to do this yet.  They're so used to the way they've always done things, they might never figure out how to totally take advantage of Lamar Jackson's abilities.  And then he might end up just like Mike Vick.  Very effective starting QB but not a generational league changing type of player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, VanS said:

Now before everyone jumps down my throat, I currently don't have Lamar Jackson as my #1 rated QB.  Nor do I have him among my top 10 overall prospects (regardless of position).  I do, however, have him in the 11-20 range of my prospect rankings.  My argument for him getting 1st overall pick consideration has to do with SHORT-TERM IMPACT.  No other QB in this draft class has the potential to rip apart the league in the short-term like Lamar Jackson.  He can do what Deshaun Watson did last year and then some in terms of early impact. 

My biggest problem with the analysis of Lamar Jackson thus far is that I don't think people are giving his other-worldly athleticism the respect it warrants.  This is a guy who will cause mayhem for NFL defenses the second he steps on the field.  He will be the most dynamic athlete we have seen at the QB position since Michael Vick.  And he'll be playing in an era more suited for running QBs than the era Michael Vick came in.  Teams are playing out of the shotgun more now.  And with the prevalence run/pass option and read option plays, the NFL is starting to look more and more like college.  When Michael Vick was in the league, this was not the case.  And Vick still ended up leading the Falcons to an NFC Championship Game berth.

In addition, I watched Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, and Russell Wilson rip apart the league in 2012 with their dynamic dual-threat abilities.  Lamar Jackson is significantly better than all 3 when it comes to running the ball.   Put him with the right coaching staff that can take advantage of his legs and I think there is a good chance Lamar Jackson has a 2012 RG3/Colin Kaepernick type season. People are underselling Lamar Jackson's potential as a NFL QB big time.  He'll never be an accurate pocket passer that beats teams from the pocket.  But he will be an athletic phenom that teams will struggle to keep in the pocket.  The floor for Lamar Jackson is Michael Vick in Atlanta.  Which isn't a bad floor at all. 

Agreed, Jackson does have the potential to have a major impact short term, and it remains to be seen if Watson will be the same player after his second major knee injury. What we don't now about Jackson, is how he will handle being a professional. Michael Vick's downfall wasn't only the dog fighting ring, it was immaturity, and players like Jackson are experiencing more attention and celebrity than pro athletes in the early 2000s. Vick had bad judgment off the field, with both his finances, and influences from his friends. His preparation and passion for the sport tailed off as well, and it wasn't until prison when Vick finally woke up. Of the three QBs you mentioned in your last paragraph, I always felt Wilson was the most likely for long term success because of his approach to the game. We just don't know how Jackson will handle this transition, it may be better for him in the long run, not to have immediate success.

 

   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, VanS said:

That's not a bad thing.  Everyone and their mama loved rookie season RG3 when he was healthy.  The problems started for RG3 after he got hurt.  And kept getting hurt. 

The biggest difference between RG3 and Lamar Jackson IMO is Lamar is more agile.  He's not only a dynamic straight line speed athlete but he also has make u miss ability.  RG3 never had that.  RG3 was a very stiff straight line speed kind of guy.  He was also injury prone in college (tore his ACL) so the injury issues in the NFL shouldn't have surprised anyone.  Lamar Jackson is the complete opposite.  Even with all that production he had on the ground in college he's been remarkably durable. 

And unlike RG3 who seemed to lack awareness of incoming tacklers and who did not know how to get on the ground and avoid contact, Lamar has an amazing ability to feel contact coming and either cause the guy to completely whiff or to fall in a way to avoid a big hit and possible injury.  I trust Lamar Jackson to stay healthy in the NFL while being a dynamic athlete way more than RG3.

Just a few small nitpicky things:

1. I didn't. I thought he was overhyped at Baylor (I typically feel the same about most Big12 Qb's though). He just didn't do it for me, and I think he was bound to fail out. Flavor of the week type that had a solid rookie season, but once figured out, was objectively kind of bad at most things. Doesn't detract from your analysis though.

2. I'd say the biggest difference between RG3 and Jackson isn't even anything physical. RG3 was a me-first, coddled, ego driven narcissist. Harsh, but he really rubbed me the wrong way every time I heard (or hear) him speak. He threw teammates under the bus for not masking his limitations and poor decision making. He threw his coach under the bus, because Robert knows better. There was nothing humble about him at all. He wasn't a rock star, he was a diva. Jackson strikes me as the opposite, and has done so for quite some time. And I really feel like at the pro level, that kind of thing matters more than anything physical (at least the physical differences are generally fairly slim). RG3 could get away with it in college where most of the guys he played against weren't starting NFL caliber players. It gave him an inflated sense of self-worth. Jackson is far more team oriented. 

3. I'll have to disagree on how some people label injury "prone". A torn ACL can be a freak thing, like with Teddy Bridgewater. Injury "prone" to me is someone like Sam Bradford. I'll admit to not being able to remember if Griffin had any other injuries though. I do concede I labeled him as an injury waiting to happen for several other reasons though (so your main premise is correct). Regardless, Jackson has shown a great deal of durability. As much as I disliked Griffin though, I can't really justify a comparison on durability coming out of college. Griffin did get injured a ton in the NFL though, so you do have a solid point, I'm just not sure that it relates back to college. 

4. This is so overlooked when it comes to scouting the athletic mobile type QBs. Everyone gets enamored with the flashy plays and forgets to appreciate the smart, non highlight reel plays. Kudos to pointing it out.

 

That being said, I personally think Jackson should switch positions. Not really based on any opinion of him as a QB. I just think he is THAT dynamic. I feel like he is a guy that could be a true #1 receiver with some seasoning. I feel like he can also be at least serviceable at QB (emphasis on "at least"). He gives an offense an ability to get their best players on the field without hamstringing them by having just the 1 QB out there. It adds a wrinkle, for sure. I feel like guys like Brad Smith were just in the right place at the wrong time. With the way offenses are evolving, I feel like Jackson could be the type of player that Smith could have been, just more effective and more of an every down player that can be moved around without things becoming too obvious. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, VanS said:

Exactly.  And from what I've seen thus far, I believe Lamar has the same ability.  The key will be can a GM build a team around a QB where his legs OR the threat of his legs will be a bigger factor in wins and losses than his arm.  I'm not sure NFL teams are creative enough to do this yet.  They're so used to the way they've always done things, they might never figure out how to totally take advantage of Lamar Jackson's abilities.  And then he might end up just like Mike Vick.  Very effective starting QB but not a generational league changing type of player.

I think people forget how good an arm Jackson has, he is just behind Allen in arm strength and he is far more accurate than Vick was. If he has the same escapability as Vick, he does not have to run the ball to succeed at the next level. Vick gave his receivers endless time to get open, but unfortunately, could not hit an open receiver if his life depended on it, while Jackson may not be the most accurate QB to come along, but if he can give his receivers that kind of time to get open, he will always be a serious deep threat in the NFL

The other thing Vick gave his teams, was the ability to pass on star OLmen in the draft. He did not need a solid LT just a very average OL, because he could destroy a pass rush through his escapability and again, if Jackson can copy Vick, he will be even a better winner than Vick was.

Don't get me wrong, I am in no position to know if Jackson has Vick like escapability, but if he does, look out, he will be special. Remember, Vick went #1 in the draft, so GM's do appreciate what a Vick copycat can bring to the table, but that's the question??? How much escapability does Jackson have??? We will know more after the Combine and his pro Day!!!

Edited by Iamcanadian

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  



×