Mike Mayock's first positional rankings

[Iamcanadian]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000916367/article/mike-mayocks-2018-nfl-draft-position-rankings

By his own admission, he still feels he has a long way to go before finalizing his rankings, as he feels he doesn't know the players all that well, as of yet!!!

[goldfishwars]

Man, Mayock’s QB rankings are always so depressingly predictable. The guy’s fetish for big, rocket armed white guys knows no bounds.

 

[Forge]

These rankings almost feel like he googled "top *enter position here* prospects 2018 nfl draft" and then copy / pasted, with the exception of maybe Nick Chubb. 

[Danger]

1 hour ago, goldfishwars said:

Man, Mayock’s QB rankings are always so depressingly predictable. The guy’s fetish for big, rocket armed white guys knows no bounds.

 

I'd take Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen.

Josh Allen is a 3rd-4th rounder to me. Somewhere between Brock Osweiler and Christian Hackenberg.

[mitch_connor]

37 minutes ago, Danger said:

I'd take Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen.

Josh Allen is a 3rd-4th rounder to me. Somewhere between Brock Osweiler and Christian Hackenberg.

I rate him quite a bit more highly than I rated Osweiler or Hack. I thought they were awful picks in the mid-2nd, whereas I think Allen could be worth a shot in that range(in reality, he'll almost certainly be overdrafted like they were, and go in the first). But I agree, I would take Mayfield over him all day, every day. 

[Forge]

43 minutes ago, Danger said:

I'd take Baker Mayfield over Josh Allen.

Josh Allen is a 3rd-4th rounder to me. Somewhere between Brock Osweiler and Christian Hackenberg.

I feel like I'm the last man standing on Josh Allen at this point. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's not a top 6 prospect for me in this draft, so I do feel that he's going to be overdrafted, but man, I feel like the hate for him has gone too far the other direction. 

 

[Danger]

Just now, mitch_connor said:

I rate him quite a bit more highly than I rated Osweiler or Hack. I thought they were awful picks in the mid-2nd, whereas I think Allen could be worth a shot in that range(in reality, he'll almost certainly be overdrafted like they were, and go in the first). But I agree, I would take Mayfield over him all day, every day. 

As someone who went to Penn State while Hackenberg was there, watching him in person many times, it's absolute JOKE that he went in the 2nd round. Osweiler was overdrafted just because of his size and arm, much like I think Allen will be.

[gopherwrestler]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

I feel like I'm the last man standing on Josh Allen at this point. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's not a top 6 prospect for me in this draft, so I do feel that he's going to be overdrafted, but man, I feel like the hate for him has gone too far the other direction. 

 

He’s caught way to much flack, but part of that is there has been so much of him as the #1 in the media. Think that plays huge into the hate.

[Iamcanadian]

11 hours ago, Forge said:

I feel like I'm the last man standing on Josh Allen at this point. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's not a top 6 prospect for me in this draft, so I do feel that he's going to be overdrafted, but man, I feel like the hate for him has gone too far the other direction. 

 

I agree, people can pour hate when a prospect shows any signs of weakness, it makes them feel like they are actually right some of the time! However, they, like us, have zero penalty for being wrong or right, for that matter, nobody can fire them and they have nothing riding on their decisions.

Allen will go round 1, because of his upside. Nobody knows what he can do on a team with far better talent than Wyoming had and after a ton of pro coaching. He is athletic and has as good a arm as there has ever been in a prospect, those attributes give a pro QB coach an awful lot to work with and if he passes the brain test in his interview and has shown a solid work ethic, who really knows what he can become??? 

[BleedTheClock]

Nobody's drafting Josh Allen because they think he's accurate. They're drafting him because they think they can work with the immense talent that he has. He's humongous, has an insane arm, has great athleticism, comes from a pro style scheme, and makes full field reads. He knows how to manipulate safeties with his eyes and does a great job of scrambling while keeping his eyes down the field. He's elite from a tools perspective. He's just really inaccurate.

People saying Josh Allen is a 3rd rounder in the mold of a Christian Hackenberg are horribly misinformed. He's a top 10 pick based on pure talent. He's also closer than people think to being an elite QB. The only thing that bothers me is his accuracy. He's a great leader, has every tool, and seems like an intelligent guy. Accuracy is obviously a big problem, but I have seen improvements in this area. Do I want him going to the Browns at #1? No, I'd be salty. But I have no problem with him going in the top 5. Less talented QB's have gone a lot higher than Allen will.

This is again, another classic FF overcorrection of draft stock. Player gets overrated. FF smashes the dislike button until the player is then severely underrated.

[goldfishwars]

FWIW - I'd absolutely take Allen in the 2nd round if my team needed a developmental QB to sit behind a veteran because the upside is juicy. Top 10 talk, which is what he's been getting is baffling and 1st overall talk is madness.

Mayock having him over Rosen, Mayfield and, for me at least, Jackson is symptomatic of the weird 'physical tools trumping everything else' mindset he seems to have when it comes to evaluating QB's.  

[Iamcanadian]

13 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

FWIW - I'd absolutely take Allen in the 2nd round if my team needed a developmental QB to sit behind a veteran because the upside is juicy. Top 10 talk, which is what he's been getting is baffling and 1st overall talk is madness.

Mayock having him over Rosen, Mayfield and, for me at least, Jackson is symptomatic of the weird 'physical tools trumping everything else' mindset he seems to have when it comes to evaluating QB's.  

First, Mayock made it clear, he has not put in much study time as yet on the current crop of prospects and is likely just going by what he has heard among the scouting community. Second, I agree that Mayock, like a lot of scouts, has his preferences at certain positions which do not always correspond to what another scout or GM may prefer. TE for instance. Mayock loves TE's who can both block and catch the ball and seems to give preference to those types when he ranks prospects. You can bet that GM's and scouts all have their own bias's when it comes to certain positions. 

Anybody ho thinks there is always consensus among GM's and scouts on every prospect, are well off the mark.

People say they would do this or that, but we have zero pressure on us to be correct. a GM whose job is on the line and absolutely must find a QB to keep his job, is far more likely to take a risk based on overall talent and pray, the rest can be developed. Hence, Allen will never get out of round 1.

I do agree all talk of him going #1 overall or possibly even top 10 seems unlikely to me, but I am not a QB coach and therefore cannot judge the odds of Allen developing.

Teams that play in the north, need QB's who have the arm strength to handle the weather conditions late in their seasons. I do not think it is a stretch to believe that Allen will be drafted somewhere in the 15 to 25 range, by a team that needs that type of QB.

Of course, the Combine and his pro day will be crucial for him, but he seems to be on solid ground with his physical ability and intangibles, to go that high.

[thebestever6]

To me Allen is a Great version  of Ryan Mallet. I gamble all day in the top half of the first round for him. Honestly, Mallets biggest flaws were accuracy, mobility, character concerns. Allen has 1 of those 3.

Three upper tier organiztions gambled on Mallet in the Ravens, Patriots, and Texans.  That's not a coincidence.  That's why I think Allen goes to a great organization.  He's a better version and for better or worse will be treated that way. 

He's not my first choice for Denver but I understand it and would probably be wrong him not being first choice. 

[goldfishwars]

2 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

First, Mayock made it clear, he has not put in much study time as yet on the current crop of prospects and is likely just going by what he has heard among the scouting community. Second, I agree that Mayock, like a lot of scouts, has his preferences at certain positions which do not always correspond to what another scout or GM may prefer. TE for instance. Mayock loves TE's who can both block and catch the ball and seems to give preference to those types when he ranks prospects. You can bet that GM's and scouts all have their own bias's when it comes to certain positions. 

Anybody ho thinks there is always consensus among GM's and scouts on every prospect, are well off the mark.

People say they would do this or that, but we have zero pressure on us to be correct. a GM whose job is on the line and absolutely must find a QB to keep his job, is far more likely to take a risk based on overall talent and pray, the rest can be developed. Hence, Allen will never get out of round 1.

I do agree all talk of him going #1 overall or possibly even top 10 seems unlikely to me, but I am not a QB coach and therefore cannot judge the odds of Allen developing.

Teams that play in the north, need QB's who have the arm strength to handle the weather conditions late in their seasons. I do not think it is a stretch to believe that Allen will be drafted somewhere in the 15 to 25 range, by a team that needs that type of QB.

Of course, the Combine and his pro day will be crucial for him, but he seems to be on solid ground with his physical ability and intangibles, to go that high.

This is fundamentally the issue with Mayock's process, he doesn't watch college football, strolls into the process late and then ends up overrating the importance of combine and pro day performances. 

I have absolute faith Allen will be a top 10 pick in this draft and a bad organization will be the one to do it. The draft process is set-up for him to shine. 

 

 

 

[Iamcanadian]

17 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

This is fundamentally the issue with Mayock's process, he doesn't watch college football, strolls into the process late and then ends up overrating the importance of combine and pro day performances. 

I have absolute faith Allen will be a top 10 pick in this draft and a bad organization will be the one to do it. The draft process is set-up for him to shine. 

 

 

 

I have to disagree, every draftnik who is worth following including Kiper, The Great Blue North, and many others take their cues from Mayock, that is how highly his appraisals are. From Kiper and even some pro draft boards, make a dramatic change once they see his rankings, as all the mist covering the top prospects begins to evaporate. and we get a real feel for how pro teams view prospects not just hacks on forums!!!

Yes, he has a process which changed dramaticly once he was hired to actually announce on TV games as an analyst, as it limited his study time during the season to nil as his job would not permit it. That's why he is no longer the lead scout on NFL's Path to the Draft.

However, his love of scouting has not left him and once the regular and playoff season stops, he forcesses 100% on the draft and spends endless time in the film room reviewing say, the top 200 prospects in a pro style film room where he can break down every play a prospect has done over the last 2 years. Something, none of us has any access to other than a few highlight reals.

He can for instance watch only the footwork of any OL or DL prospect, he can study the hand placement and how often he stays low or comes up too high, etc. etc, etc. etc.

Sure, his early February positional rankings are raw by his own admission, but as the process goes on, it gets better and better, till it is one of the best draft boards in the business and only a fool would ignore him!!!

Add in the fact that he has close contacts to NFL GM's and the scouting community to assist his analysis, and we should all have such access. He likely also has access to the interview results for a lot of teams as well as a prospects medical report.

In conclusion, He does not just drift in and rely on the Combine and Pro Day, he puts in the effort to make himself an authority on the draft and if his final rankings do not match up with his, you need to reexamine your rankings to see if you have missed something.

Having said that, Mayock has preferences which do not always match a majority of GM's on certain positions. He favours certain types of athletes at certain positions over others and in these casess you need to watch his predictions with a grain of salt.

These are 2 of his bias's:

Big strong armed QB's

He prefers TE's who are solid blockers

However he is rarely wrong about CB's and particularly Safeties, his position when her played in the NFL.

The only NFL.com scout who comes close to him is Gil Brandt, the ex Director of scouting of the Cowboys during their dynasty era and I suspect, he get a sneak preview of the Cowboys actual board, through his contacts in their organization.

Last but not least, Charley Casserly, the ex GM of the Redskins, seems to know his stuff as well, but he hates doing mocks and cannot always be trusted to tell the truth.