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Mike Mayock's first positional rankings


Iamcanadian

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1 hour ago, Tugboat said:

I think the bolded is an underrated and oft-overlooked point when it comes to comparing rankings.  You can have two different lists that rank different prospects as "better" for their particular needs/fits/preferences...and both be entirely right.  ex//You could have a guy like Gesicki who...if you're looking for a pure move TE like Jimmy Graham, may be the best guy in the draft.  On the other hand, if you're evaluating and putting together a list for an organization where you simply doesn't use that niche role much, and really value versatility and inline ability in a TE because that's what you're going to put on the field every Sunday...you could end up with the same player ranked significantly lower/others ranked a lot higher because it's not a fit.

That's where the idea of these "universal", unaffiliated, blanket prospect ranking lists is just that much trickier to balance.  You have to look at things through a much broader scope across a much wider range of situations.  Which is where you're always inevitably going to end up with some degree of "bias" or preferences and tendencies that run through a particular scouts lists like this.  It's just unavoidable that at some point, you're going to weight certain traits over others.  It's too hard to completely detach for some sort of "totally unbiased dispassionate and curious detached master list of prospects" because situation and fit are so often inherently tied to success and value.

 

Yeah.  This ties right in with the above too, with regard to systems and fit and all that jazz.  You  have to look at what a guy is actually doing, rather than looking at a raw comp% number without context.  Do we really not believe that Josh Allen playing for say...Mike Leach or Lincoln Riley (like some other QBs in this draft) wouldn't have eeked out a few more percent throwing a handful of extra gimme completion swings to the flats, mesh routes, verticals designed to isolate an athletic mismatch downfield  in whatever air raid/spread system?  Would that really mean suddenly Allen isn't catastrophically inaccurate?  Would we still be pulling out that arbitrary 59% threshold to suggest Allen's accuracy is suddenly not statistically fatal?

 

The thing is...both of these QBs have accuracy problems, a ton of inconsistency, and low completion percentages.

The difference is, when you watch these two offensive systems in action...those "special gifts" in Jackson's athletic skillset, mean that he's consistently throwing against stacked boxes with extra people pulled out of coverage.  That's fine.  That's how running QBs in a system built around designed QB runs like that works.  But, it introduces two new questionmarks compared to similarly low completion percentage Allen and his respective system.  With Jackson's system...it introduces first and foremost, the question of why the number is still low even throwing against "easier" matchups in the secondary full of single coverage and all that comes along with dragging defenders down into the box.  Secondly, and probably more importantly..we can watch and see that in that system, Jackson can absolutely use his legs effectively to simplify the game downfield for himself as a passer, which we've seen is translatable...but you have to ask the question of whether his frame is going to be able to sustain that style of play longer-term at the NFL level. 

And if your answer is that Jackson's frame isn't going to be able to sustain that sort of thousand yard rusher beating at the next level, you have to start speculating as to how someone like Jackson might fare accuracy-wise (or comp% wise as a proxy for that) in a system that dials that element back.  To something more like the system Josh Allen ran (where he didn't run...nearly as much).

 

A lot of people seem to want to get all up in arms about this "big mobile rocket armed pocket passer" prototype, as though it's there for no reason.  As though the running/dual-threat QB somehow doesn't invite a great deal of additional risk for your signal caller at the NFL level...and with that, potential instability and inconsistency for an organization trying to build around that.

 

Basically in short...the reason Allen's similarly low comp% is looked at differently from Jackson's, is because Allen's statistical inaccuracy is at least coming from within the sort of system that isn't as significantly skewed by the QB run threat.

No different than the way Luke Falk's "big tall white guy" completion percentage is all but tossed out the window because of his specific system concerns.

Appreciate the really thoughtful post here Tugboat. Just to come back why is Jackson’s completion not higher, there’s a few things to consider. Firstly, drops – Jackson was most adversely impacted by a high drop percentage on catchable passes. Also, in Petrino’s system, there were no layup passes, no bubble screens or the kind of thing that would normally pad a college QB stats. Jackson’s feet were the check down and he was expected to hit deep passes when the boxes were stacked. He was successful at that and threw 10 of his TD’s deep, the concern is the passes that sail – which some have attributed to playing from a narrow base. We’ll see if that improves.

I think the ‘small frame’ ting could be a bit of a red herring and probably marred by RGIII’s career trajectory. Jackson actually took a beating in some games because Petrino never increased protection when his line was over matched, which happened a lot. Watch the NC State game, Jackson gets hit over and over – but his ‘small’ frame showed itself to be tough and durable. It’s funny, nobody talks about Russell Wilson’s small stature and he’s been an incredibly effective runner in the NFL. The difference is Jackson, like Wilson, is adept at avoiding hits. They’re both elusive runners, RGII was fast – but not particularly nimble and was a bad faller after contact. Michael Vick was a reckless runner. You can be a runner in the NFL and be smart about it, which is what Jackson would need to be.

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15 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Except Leonard Fournette. He sucks.

Funny, I can probably count on one hand the number of people who predicted Jacksonville would make the playoffs, especially since Bortles had a rather mediocre season, allowing teams to basically set up in a run defense and dare Bortles to beat them.

I think Fournette had a wonderful rookie year and if Bortles can ever force defenses to respect him, Fournette just might rip them apart!!!

Hunt and Kamara played on teams solid at QB, which forced teams to set up defending the pass first, opening up running lanes for both of them and they both had excellent rookie seasons, but Fournette found himself in a much more difficult system and still played a huge role in getting Jacksonville to the playoffs, so I would not sell him short!!!

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7 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Funny, I can probably count on one hand the number of people who predicted Jacksonville would make the playoffs, especially since Bortles had a rather mediocre season, allowing teams to basically set up in a run defense and dare Bortles to beat them.

I think Fournette had a wonderful rookie year and if Bortles can ever force defenses to respect him, Fournette just might rip them apart!!!

Hunt and Kamara played on teams solid at QB, which forced teams to set up defending the pass first, opening up running lanes for both of them and they both had excellent rookie seasons, but Fournette found himself in a much more difficult system and still played a huge role in getting Jacksonville to the playoffs, so I would not sell him short!!!

No. He's trash. We all know Alvin Kamara is going to win the next 13 MVP awards while Fournette will be lucky to be in the league at the start of the 2019 NFL season.

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On 2/28/2018 at 10:04 PM, VanS said:

You really want me to post the other Jaguar RBs YPC on the season last year?

There isn't a statistical measure that makes Leonard Fournette's 3.9 YPC last season look any better. 

how about one of the best rbs of all time having a 3.9 ypc or worse 5 times in his 11 year career?

and i iamgine youre familiar with sample size, so were you talking about ivory's 3.4 ypc or yeldons 5.2 on a whooping 49 carries. did you ever bother looking up context like broken tackles and stacked boxes faced or did you want to keep falling back on the same old silly 3.9 ypc argument?

 

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1 hour ago, GSUeagles14 said:

how about one of the best rbs of all time having a 3.9 ypc or worse 5 times in his 11 year career?

and i iamgine youre familiar with sample size, so were you talking about ivory's 3.4 ypc or yeldons 5.2 on a whooping 49 carries. did you ever bother looking up context like broken tackles and stacked boxes faced or did you want to keep falling back on the same old silly 3.9 ypc argument?

 

If this is about Ladanian Tomlinson, I'm pretty sure I already responded to it.  LT averaged 1,500 rushing yards on 4.5 YPC from age 23-29.  If Fournette can come anywhere close to that, then my criticism of his pathetic rookie season is rendered mute.

You really think Fournette is gonna get anywhere close to a Hall of Fame career like LT?

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7 hours ago, VanS said:

If this is about Ladanian Tomlinson, I'm pretty sure I already responded to it.  LT averaged 1,500 rushing yards on 4.5 YPC from age 23-29.  If Fournette can come anywhere close to that, then my criticism of his pathetic rookie season is rendered mute.

You really think Fournette is gonna get anywhere close to a Hall of Fame career like LT?

no clue, but if someone was to point out lts ypc as a reason he wasnt good, itd be pretty idiotic. so youre saying ypc doesnt matter for lt but does for fournette, got it. care to answer that other part about coming up with an intelligent argument and using actual context or nah?

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14 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

No. He's trash. We all know Alvin Kamara is going to win the next 13 MVP awards while Fournette will be lucky to be in the league at the start of the 2019 NFL season.

All three are really good. It wouldn’t surprise me if all three at top 5 RBs in 5 years. My only concerns for Fournette are the lower limb injuries. He’s also behind Hunt and Kamara as a receiver, but he has some potential there as well. 

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On 3/1/2018 at 3:17 AM, goldfishwars said:

Appreciate the really thoughtful post here Tugboat. Just to come back why is Jackson’s completion not higher, there’s a few things to consider. Firstly, drops – Jackson was most adversely impacted by a high drop percentage on catchable passes. Also, in Petrino’s system, there were no layup passes, no bubble screens or the kind of thing that would normally pad a college QB stats. Jackson’s feet were the check down and he was expected to hit deep passes when the boxes were stacked. He was successful at that and threw 10 of his TD’s deep, the concern is the passes that sail – which some have attributed to playing from a narrow base. We’ll see if that improves.

I think the ‘small frame’ ting could be a bit of a red herring and probably marred by RGIII’s career trajectory. Jackson actually took a beating in some games because Petrino never increased protection when his line was over matched, which happened a lot. Watch the NC State game, Jackson gets hit over and over – but his ‘small’ frame showed itself to be tough and durable. It’s funny, nobody talks about Russell Wilson’s small stature and he’s been an incredibly effective runner in the NFL. The difference is Jackson, like Wilson, is adept at avoiding hits. They’re both elusive runners, RGII was fast – but not particularly nimble and was a bad faller after contact. Michael Vick was a reckless runner. You can be a runner in the NFL and be smart about it, which is what Jackson would need to be.

Yeah.  There's certainly that element to it with Jacksons' game/stats.  Josh Allen also played in an offense without an abundance of "layups" as well though.  They're both pretty frustrating systems.  Lamar's in that it's a real big play or run sort of thing, which doesn't do a good job of showing us what he can really do as a true rhythm passer from the pocket.  Or in going through deep progressions.  Which does really tend to flatter his explosive play ability.  Allen's in that it feels very much like a coach trying to run a system more sophisticated than the supporting talent could successfully execute at that level.

I'd have loved to see Allen in a system where he's asked to make a lot more "layup" throws, just to see if he can do it.  It would clear up a lot with him, just to see him execute an "easy" system with accuracy for a day.  And i'd have loved to see Jackson in a system that asked him to make a lot of rhythm throws and "layups" before taking off as well.  The two things seem to be driving from the opposite end of motivation to end up at the same annoying place.  With Jackson, it's obviously driven by the fact that when you have a Heisman calibre dual-threat in college...you ride that pony for all it's worth.  With Allen...it's like stubbornly trying to run this "Pro Style" thing to a fault, because you have this prototypical rocket arm guy...even if the OLine and Receiving talent simply aren't good enough to execute around him.

Obviously the stubborn poorly-executed Pro Style system appears to have borne out better results as far as the guys draft stock though, over the well executed college system.

 

As to the whole size thing with Jackson...i'm not convinced it's a red herring.  Russell Wilson is a guy who does rush quite a bit in the NFL...but he's also built like a tank.  He has more or less the same amount of mass draped over a frame that's a good solid 3-4 inches shorter and substantially more compact.  It's like...MJD and Reggie Bush hit the combine at more or less the same weight...but i think clearly different builds.  But more importantly, Wilson is a guy who is extremely talented at the ol' baseball slide and has a serious knack for avoiding contact altogether as a runner.  He's by far the best in the league at managing his exposure to contact on the run.  That matters a lot, and isn't something i've really seen from Jackson.  Even as a guy coming out in the draft...Wilson was what, a 300-400 yards on the ground guy?  He's always been more of a "scrambler" than a "runner".  He takes yards when there, more than just running and grinding them out, and doesn't typically fight for that extra yard or two unless it's absolutely desperate.

 

As a whole though, i'm definitely biased away from the true dual-threat "running QB" sort of model.  It can absolutely work in today's NFL, but it just invites too much more risk for me to be thrilled with the idea.  It raises all manner of longevity and durability questions, running an offense like that.  Multiplied exponentially the more slight a QBs build is, and the more running is involved.  I like the potential to have an explosive, early impact though.  Which...given the insanity of recent fresh off rookie contract deals for QBs...makes me start to second guess.  If you can keep a guy healthy enough to win in those years, that might your best shot...and it's going to open your window earlier as well.  It's just not my preference.

 

On the other hand...There are still the persistent rumours that there are some NFL teams that would like Jackson to work out at WR, which i think are utterly ridiculous, and probably based in something else entirely.  There's zero chance this guy is falling far enough that you'd be drafting him at that position as a guy who hasn't played that spot.  This isn't Denard Robinson.  It's stupid.  But i don't think that complete nonsense should be allowed to even influence the actual discussion about Lamar Jackson as a QB prospect.

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On 2/22/2018 at 1:27 PM, Forge said:

I feel like I'm the last man standing on Josh Allen at this point. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's not a top 6 prospect for me in this draft, so I do feel that he's going to be overdrafted, but man, I feel like the hate for him has gone too far the other direction. 

 

There probably has been an overcorrection some but even the 1st seems like a stretch

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13 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

There probably has been an overcorrection some but even the 1st seems like a stretch

Well, he will be a 1st rounder, likely top 15 to top 20. He was 6'1", 187 lbs. when he graduated high school and grew into the man he is today and may need time to catch up to this body growth??

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On 2/22/2018 at 12:27 PM, Forge said:

I feel like I'm the last man standing on Josh Allen at this point. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's not a top 6 prospect for me in this draft, so I do feel that he's going to be overdrafted, but man, I feel like the hate for him has gone too far the other direction. 

 

I am an Allen fan but I also got Rudolph over Mayfield so what do I know.

 

 

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