ChaRisMa Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 37 minutes ago, Burnett42 said: 134 4th, 172 5th, 174 5th, 207 6th Bad news for those expecting a 3rd and 3 5ths Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltarich87 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 ouch no 3rd is disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Certainly is disappointing, but ultimately in looking at the FA lost and contracts, is not surprising. Big tier drop after the first 4 players. Have not looked closely at the cancelation piece in a while. Here is what over the cap had projected. 2018 Compensatory Picks Explanation | Basics & Methodology |Cancellation Chart Team Round Compensated Free Agent APY ARI 3 Calais Campbell $15,000,000 HOU 3 A.J. Bouye $13,500,000 CIN 3 Kevin Zeitler $12,000,000 DEN 3 Russell Okung $13,250,000 GB 3 T.J. Lang $9,500,000 BAL 3 Ricky Wagner $9,500,000 ARI 4 Tony Jefferson $8,500,000 NE 4 Jabaal Sheard $8,500,000 NYG 4 Johnathan Hankins $9,000,000 DAL 4 Ronald Leary $8,925,000 DAL 4 Barry Church $6,500,000 CIN 5 Andrew Whitworth $11,250,000 GB 5 Micah Hyde $6,000,000 DAL 5 Brandon Carr $6,000,000 GB 5 J.C. Tretter $5,583,333 DAL 5 Morris Claiborne $5,000,000 GB 5 Jared Cook $5,000,000 OAK 6 Latavius Murray $4,900,000 KC 6 Nick Foles $5,500,000 HOU 6 John Simon $4,666,667 OAK 6 Malcolm Smith $5,250,000 MIN 6 Cordarrelle Patterson $4,000,000 HOU 6 Quintin Demps $4,406,250 OAK 6 D.J. Hayden $3,500,000 MIN 6 Adrian Peterson $3,500,000 OAK 6 Nate Allen $3,400,000 LAC 7 Manti Te’o $2,450,000 CIN 7 Margus Hunt $2,050,000 CIN 7 Karlos Dansby $1,900,000 ARI 7 Alex Okafor $1,935,000 TB 7 Bradley McDougald $1,800,000 ATL 7 Tom Compton $1,850,000 Actual picks 3-97 Cardinals 3-98 Texans 3-99 Broncos 3-100 Bengals 4-133 Packers 4-134 Cardinals 4-135 Giants 4-136 Patriots 4-137 Cowboys 5-170 Bengals 5-171 Cowboys 5-172 Packers 5-173 Cowboys 5-174 Packers 6-207 Packers 6-208 Cowboys 6-209 Chiefs 6-210 Raiders 6-211 Texans 6-212 Raiders 6-213 Vikings 6-214 Texans 6-215 Ravens 6-216 Raiders 6-217 Raiders 6-218 Vikings 7-251 Chargers 7-252 Bengals 7-253 Bengals 7-254 Cardinals 7-255 Buccaneers 7-256 Falcons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 14 hours ago, Burnett42 said: 134 4th, 172 5th, 174 5th, 207 6th Bad news for those expecting a 3rd and 3 5ths That's too bad. At least this year we are drafting higher in those rounds than we have in a several years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davekenya Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 If Gute keeps all 12 picks (because all won't make the team anyway), I'd advocate taking more 'risks' with later round picks like Wolf did with Driver -- on players with higher grade talent but for some reason they might not work for the NFL (i.e. injured college players like Terrell Davis was; maybe even a guy labelled a character risk, etc.) Al Davis did okay taking a 7th round flyer on some guy, like Driver, who might not take up football. I think the guy was Bo something or other. That seemed to work out okay. On Driver...getting picked in the 7th round when he was graded with 4th round talent...I recall post draft and prior to his first season Driver mentioning wrestling with whether he should try pro football as a 7th rounder or compete to get into the Olympics as a high jumper. Not knowing which way he was leaning may have led to him sliding to later rounds. Good flyer by Wolf to bet he'd go NFL. I think late picks should be used more this way - esp when you have so many picks. Okay to do with late picks; I'm not advocating a Lawrence Phillips type flyer in round 1! Not sure which college players might fit 'high reward; lower probably of succeeding' categories for the 2018 draft....thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Take the various comp picks and add them to an existing pick to move up in 2nd, 3rd, 4th. (If you can find a willing partner) Comp picks are handed out because you lost a good player, so using them to move up in the draft makes sense. If you trust your scouts and your board - then there will be opportunities to go up and get a higher rated player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 20 hours ago, Packerraymond said: Everyone projected us at a 3rd and 3 5ths so there's nothing nice about what we got. They're "free" picks, I'm not going to complain. It's obviously disappointing given the expectations we had, but they're extra ammunition for us to use in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 20 hours ago, Packerraymond said: I've never seen the guy who does the comp projections get one wrong,so there was no reason not to expect one. NFL must've changed their "formula" It's possible. They handed out a record number of 3rds last year, so they might have tweaked the formula. It's also possible that Lang fell right on that line (or pretty darn close) and they tend to go with the lower round in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 19 hours ago, Packerraymond said: Wouldn't have anything to do with Lacy, that's Lang. Also Hyde was almost an All Pro and it did nothing to rate him up. Don't think that's a big factor. I've said that accolades like "All Pro" don't really alter the formula that much. Think of it as more of a tiebreaker between similar contracts. It's based almost exclusively on AAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 32 minutes ago, davekenya said: If Gute keeps all 12 picks (because all won't make the team anyway), I'd advocate taking more 'risks' with later round picks like Wolf did with Driver -- on players with higher grade talent but for some reason they might not work for the NFL (i.e. injured college players like Terrell Davis was; maybe even a guy labelled a character risk, etc.) Al Davis did okay taking a 7th round flyer on some guy, like Driver, who might not take up football. I think the guy was Bo something or other. That seemed to work out okay. On Driver...getting picked in the 7th round when he was graded with 4th round talent...I recall post draft and prior to his first season Driver mentioning wrestling with whether he should try pro football as a 7th rounder or compete to get into the Olympics as a high jumper. Not knowing which way he was leaning may have led to him sliding to later rounds. Good flyer by Wolf to bet he'd go NFL. I think late picks should be used more this way - esp when you have so many picks. Okay to do with late picks; I'm not advocating a Lawrence Phillips type flyer in round 1! Not sure which college players might fit 'high reward; lower probably of succeeding' categories for the 2018 draft....thoughts? In theory, that sounds swell. But the reality is the other 31 teams are all starting to take those gambles as well. The 4th round compensatory picks generally tend to be when teams start willing to risk those picks on injured players and those with character risks. How much earlier are you if you're Gute do you make those same risks? They may not be there in the 5th round when you're making that pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davekenya Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Because GB has 4 comp picks, we can take more flyers than others do while still using our earlier picks to fill out the roster and needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Here is OVerTheCap's Comp Pick report card - what they predicted vs what really happened https://overthecap.com/evaluation-2018-compensatory-picks-projection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
{Family Ghost} Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 I thought this was kind of interesting. Teams are well aware of how this formula works .. or at least Lombardi says that's the case. Michael Lombardi ✔@mlombardiNFL All teams have the formula that the league office uses to determine the comp picks. No team is surprised with these results, and each time you sign a free agent player, you understand how it will affect the comp picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Vince Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 that sux, hope they trade all 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arthur Penske Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 I never made a thread on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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