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Look for Clinton Dix extension soon!


Deekster37

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18 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I think you're overvaluing it IMO.  Elite safety money is $10M+, that's the top 6 safeties in terms of AAV.  The next tier is that $6.5M to $10M range, which is the 7-15th highest paid S.  Tony Jefferson just signed a 4 year, $34M deal last year with the Ravens.  Barry Church just signed a 4 year, $26M with the Jaguars last offseason.  Those are two veteran safeties.  HHCD isn't signing a 4 year, $24M deal right now, because it's not in his best interest.  He can wait a year from now and he's probably getting closer to that $8M/year that the market value set him at.  Neither HHCD or Morgan Burnett are getting elite S money, you can bank on that.

Barry Church is a box safety and he almost got 7 on the open market. If bank on Morgan getting 8-9. HHCD from 2016 was a top 8 NFL safety. He'd get 10 on the market. If he returns to that under Pettine that's what you're going to sign him for. You can offer him 4 at somewhere between 28-32 now and hope he turns it around, therefore locking up a top S for under market value. It's a risk for GB and for HHCD but each has their own payoff. This type of deal happens all the time though. Some players would rather have the sure thing than bet on themselves and potentially lose it all.

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Elite money is a moving target...and as soon as the next guy signs, the target moves up. And then so does the average money

Unfortantely, value is only playing a small part here - there is simply too much money chasing not enough talent. So then the contract isn't based on what they are worth from a strictly football point of view - its based on what they can get from some free-spending team. It will be more than the player is worth from a football POV and soon enough, that player will be cut for not living up to the non-value based contract

Lather Rinse Repeat

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1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

 It's a risk for GB and for HHCD but each has their own payoff. This type of deal happens all the time though. Some players would rather have the sure thing than bet on themselves and potentially lose it all.

This type of deal does happen all the time and it might even increase. Given all the CTE/ Brain injury stuff, players may be more inclined to take a deal sooner

IF Davante doesn't come back from his headbangers last year, he'd only have gotten his rookie deal. The reality of being one hit away from retirement has to weigh on these contract negotiations

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1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

Barry Church is a box safety and he almost got 7 on the open market. If bank on Morgan getting 8-9. HHCD from 2016 was a top 8 NFL safety. He'd get 10 on the market. If he returns to that under Pettine that's what you're going to sign him for. You can offer him 4 at somewhere between 28-32 now and hope he turns it around, therefore locking up a top S for under market value. It's a risk for GB and for HHCD but each has their own payoff. This type of deal happens all the time though. Some players would rather have the sure thing than bet on themselves and potentially lose it all.

I think 4 years, $32M is a reasonable target for Morgan Burnett, but him getting to that 4 year, $40M range seems unrealistic given his age and the play and injury concerns.  He hasn't played in 16 games since 2012.  He's going to miss a game or two a year minimum.  You don't pay aging safeties $10M+ year, especially when they're not elite safeties.  He's not getting $10M+/year.

As for HHCD, the fact that he had a miserable 2017 campaign is going to weigh against him.  Sure, he was a top 8 safety in the NFL in 2016 but he wasn't even close to that in 2017.  If he was coming off another strong season, there's no doubt he'd be looking at elite S money.  But he didn't, which means teams are going to be reluctant to shell out big money for him.  So that knocks him down a tier ($7M-$9M) on the open market.  And if you're wanting a team-friendly deal out of him, you're probably shaving another million or two off the AAV.  That's a FAR cry from the 4 year, $40M deal you think he'd command.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I think 4 years, $32M is a reasonable target for Morgan Burnett, but him getting to that 4 year, $40M range seems unrealistic given his age and the play and injury concerns.  He hasn't played in 16 games since 2012.  He's going to miss a game or two a year minimum.  You don't pay aging safeties $10M+ year, especially when they're not elite safeties.  He's not getting $10M+/year.

As for HHCD, the fact that he had a miserable 2017 campaign is going to weigh against him.  Sure, he was a top 8 safety in the NFL in 2016 but he wasn't even close to that in 2017.  If he was coming off another strong season, there's no doubt he'd be looking at elite S money.  But he didn't, which means teams are going to be reluctant to shell out big money for him.  So that knocks him down a tier ($7M-$9M) on the open market.  And if you're wanting a team-friendly deal out of him, you're probably shaving another million or two off the AAV.  That's a FAR cry from the 4 year, $40M deal you think he'd command.

We're talking about signing him right now to avoid what he'd cost in 2019 if he has an elite season. His value now is totally irrelevant so I don't know why you're bringing it up. He obviously has lower value right now, that's why we're having this conversation.

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On 3/3/2018 at 1:03 PM, Packerraymond said:

We're talking about signing him right now to avoid what he'd cost in 2019 if he has an elite season. His value now is totally irrelevant so I don't know why you're bringing it up. He obviously has lower value right now, that's why we're having this conversation.

That's my point.  What would HHCD get on the open market right now if he were a FA?  He'd probably get something in the neighborhood of ~$8M.  He has another elite season, he's probably pushing $10M.

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42 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's my point.  What would HHCD get on the open market right now if he were a FA?  He'd probably get something in the neighborhood of ~$8M.  He has another elite season, he's probably pushing $10M.

Correct, but if he tears his ACL or Achilles he won't get close. 

That's why they call it "betting" on yourself, it's a gamble. Sometimes you can hit jackpot, but let's say that 2nd concussion for Adams was more like Shields last one, look at all the money he would've lost.

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1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

Correct, but if he tears his ACL or Achilles he won't get close. 

That's why they call it "betting" on yourself, it's a gamble. Sometimes you can hit jackpot, but let's say that 2nd concussion for Adams was more like Shields last one, look at all the money he would've lost.

That's kinda my point.  Right now, his fair market value is ~$8M so him signing a deal at an AAV of $8M really isn't team-friendly unless it's structured in a way that has little in the way of dead money.  That or below-market value are how I define team-friendly deals.

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5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

That's kinda my point.  Right now, his fair market value is ~$8M so him signing a deal at an AAV of $8M really isn't team-friendly unless it's structured in a way that has little in the way of dead money.  That or below-market value are how I define team-friendly deals.

He's shown you the value of a guy worth more though. You're paying a guy what he was worth in a down year knowing if he goes back to being his old self you're getting a bargain.

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1 minute ago, Packerraymond said:

He's shown you the value of a guy worth more though. You're paying a guy what he was worth in a down year knowing if he goes back to being his old self you're getting a bargain.

What do you think he'd get on the open market if he were a FA this offseason?

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Just now, Packerraymond said:

Not sure, probably 8-9, if he hit after 2016 probably 10-11. Have a chance to save a bit if you think Pettine and Whitt are going to turn him around.

We're talking about an extension, so we're talking about right now.  What happens if he has another 2016 season next year?  He's definitely not hitting that $10M+ range.  And he's probably more in that $6M-$8M range.  Either way, when signing at $8M/year isn't what I'd call team-friendly.  That's fair market value.

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11 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

We're talking about an extension, so we're talking about right now.  What happens if he has another 2016 season next year?  He's definitely not hitting that $10M+ range.  And he's probably more in that $6M-$8M range.  Either way, when signing at $8M/year isn't what I'd call team-friendly.  That's fair market value.

Yes, you're signing him for his 2018 market value, to save on what his 2019 value could be.

Same reason San Fran signed Jimmy G long term now rather than franchise him and wait a year, same reason we did the same thing to Aaron on his first contract too.

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I'm not touching him at $8 million per right now after the season he had last year. 4/32 now vs. say 4/40 if he plays well next year. I'd be much happier having pay him $10 per if he plays well next year than having already paid him $8 per if he doesn't. I've never been a huge fan of his admittedly but I'd much rather pay a bit extra if we are getting 2016 HHCD than paying anything for 2017 HHCD. 

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HHCD hate is a little out of control from some members.

He was forced to play in a way that is not his strength based on horrible corner play late in the year. He was obviously frustrated by this. We get healthy at CB (and hopefully stay that way) we are gonna see the single-high read and react HaHa we got in 2016. He is just not as effective in the deep half with one eye on Josh Hawkins hoping he doesn't blow it. Let him be in the middle of the field and react to the QBs eyes and he will be fine. 

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