LuckyIrish Quick Mock

[MacReady]

Just now, OneTwoSixFive said:

Not great players, but not chopped liver, either. I'm ok with a trade up if there is a player the Packers particularly want, but as Ted said, more picks equals more chances at getting a solid guy - and all teams need solid guys.

Ted Thompson is a guy who essentially just got fired (forced to step down).  Fifth round picks are fine if you have one of them, they're good if you're rebuilding, but they rarely help a team like the Packers (elite QB play, lack of real talent on team). 

Think of all the players Thompson has relied on to be not depth, but starters.  Walden.  Coston.  Whitticker.  Newhouse.  Brad Jones. 

Regardless of what others have suggested, I never said you can't find good players in the fifth round.  Finding good players in the fifth round is few and far between.  Some people are quick to bring up players that were drafted well before Thompson's time and going back years and years into Packer history.  You yourself brought up 4 alright fifth round picks.  Both of you neglected Coston, Hawkins, Moll, Martin, Clowney, Meredith, Quinn Johnson, Newhouse, Quarless, DJ Williams, Terrell Manning and Yancey. 

More often than not, fifth round picks aren't even providing solid depth. 

You can't have it two ways as a fan. 

Calculate how many of our own free agents you want to bring back.
Calculate how many free agents you want brought in.
Calculate 5 rookies from the 1st to 4th round.
Calculate any players currently on our roster. 

Does that number come to less than 53?  If not, what's the point of having 3 5th round draft picks? 

Do you see my point? 

I was referring mostly to this mock draft for the sake of entertainment.  See what we could get in a trade up.  The reality is that this team does not need 12 draft picks.  12 draft picks will not make this team next year. 

If we're going to continue being an almost exclusively draft and develop team, sure, keep all three of those fifth round picks.  Otherwise...

Thomson averaged 9.3 draft picks a season.  Do you really want this team to average 9.3 draft picks a season in the back half of Aaron's career?  The more draft picks we make, the less space we have for free agents, trades, etc. 

[LuckyIrish23]

2 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Ted Thompson is a guy who essentially just got fired (forced to step down).  Fifth round picks are fine if you have one of them, they're good if you're rebuilding, but they rarely help a team like the Packers (elite QB play, lack of real talent on team). 

Think of all the players Thompson has relied on to be not depth, but starters.  Walden.  Coston.  Whitticker.  Newhouse.  Brad Jones. 

Regardless of what others have suggested, I never said you can't find good players in the fifth round.  Finding good players in the fifth round is few and far between.  Some people are quick to bring up players that were drafted well before Thompson's time and going back years and years into Packer history.  You yourself brought up 4 alright fifth round picks.  Both of you neglected Coston, Hawkins, Moll, Martin, Clowney, Meredith, Quinn Johnson, Newhouse, Quarless, DJ Williams, Terrell Manning and Yancey. 

More often than not, fifth round picks aren't even providing solid depth. 

You can't have it two ways as a fan. 

Calculate how many of our own free agents you want to bring back.
Calculate how many free agents you want brought in.
Calculate 5 rookies from the 1st to 4th round.
Calculate any players currently on our roster. 

Does that number come to less than 53?  If not, what's the point of having 3 5th round draft picks? 

Do you see my point? 

I was referring mostly to this mock draft for the sake of entertainment.  See what we could get in a trade up.  The reality is that this team does not need 12 draft picks.  12 draft picks will not make this team next year. 

If we're going to continue being an almost exclusively draft and develop team, sure, keep all three of those fifth round picks.  Otherwise...

Thomson averaged 9.3 draft picks a season.  Do you really want this team to average 9.3 draft picks a season in the back half of Aaron's career?  The more draft picks we make, the less space we have for free agents, trades, etc. 

Valid point. I would be interested in seeing how many spots we could move up in the 2nd/3rd/4th with our 5th rounders. 

[MacReady]

Also, picking at the end of the 2nd round gives you a 50% chance at finding a starter.  End of round three gives you a 30% chance at finding a starter.  So @Golfman, when you say that having three fifth round picks gives us a good chance at finding a starter, that's actually not true.

https://datascopeanalytics.com/blog/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft/

So even if I said what you suggested I said, you'd still be wrong. 

[CWood21]

11 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Ted Thompson is a guy who essentially just got fired (forced to step down).  Fifth round picks are fine if you have one of them, they're good if you're rebuilding, but they rarely help a team like the Packers (elite QB play, lack of real talent on team). 

They're just more lottery tickets.  I hate the concept that you shouldn't have those mid-to-late picks.  You don't rely on them, but you enjoy having more chances to get hits.

[MacReady]

Just now, CWood21 said:

They're just more lottery tickets.  I hate the concept that you shouldn't have those mid-to-late picks.  You don't rely on them, but you enjoy having more chances to get hits.

I'm not saying we need to trade every fifth round pick and 6th and 7th round pick. 

[CWood21]

10 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I'm not saying we need to trade every fifth round pick and 6th and 7th round pick. 

I'm just saying in general.  It seems like there's a large contingent who wouldn't be happy if the Packers moved all their Day 3 picks, even if it only meant moving up a few spots in the 2nd and 3rd round.  They're not picks you rely on, but instead picks you take chances on.

[Golfman]

58 minutes ago, LuckyIrish23 said:

Love the comments on the mock. Any thoughts on the players or about signing Colvin? 

I'd be more than happy with the draft and the players you offered as free agents. If you get Eifert for 3-million I'd guess it's a one year prove it deal. Curious, since you restructureed Jordy, does that mean Cobb and Matthews play on existing contract? 

I'm not a fan of Jahri Evans, at least not the player in his mid-thirties we got last year. I think it's time to move on from him. Love Colvin sigininig. 

[OneTwoSixFive]

My take on acquiring picks (well this year anyway) is that unless there is a player the Packers really like at #14, that is the pick where you move down. It gives you back the most value for the smallest move, and allows a move up in round 2 or 3 (assuming you can make the trades, which you cannot always do). A move down of just 4 spots in round one equals the ninth pick in round three, extra (JJ. chart). The  4th plus 5th non-comp picks bundled together  (maybe throw in a comp 6th) might just get you another pick at the tail end of round 3.

If both those deals were made, the Pack would get round 1, pick #18, round 2 pick 45, and three 3rd rounders (approx the 9th, 12th and a tail end pick). They would still have picks left ine every round, so they could chase any later bargains they see there. I think you could then address three of WR/CB/TE/OT with three 3rds.

[Golfman]

4 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

My take on acquiring picks (well this year anyway) is that unless there is a player the Packers really like at #14, that is the pick where you move down. It gives you back the most value for the smallest move, and allows a move up in round 2 or 3 (assuming you can make the trades, which you cannot always do). A move down of just 4 spots in round one equals the ninth pick in round three, extra (JJ. chart). The  4th plus 5th non-comp picks bundled together  (maybe throw in a comp 6th) might just get you another pick at the tail end of round 3.

If both those deals were made, the Pack would get round 1, pick #18, round 2 pick 45, and three 3rd rounders (approx the 9th, 12th and a tail end pick). They would still have picks left ine every round, so they could chase any later bargains they see there. I think you could then address three of WR/CB/TE/OT with three 3rds.

I'm hopeful that one QB is sitting there at 14 the Bills have to have. You could possibly get both 21, and 22 from them. Now, I understand that is overpaying according to the Jimmy Johnson point chart, but teams overpay for QB's. Having said that, if your guy is sitting there at 14 I would pull the trigger. We need a difference maker and there could be one there. Davenport, Edmunds, Smith or James. I'd be tempted to go QB if Josh Allen were sitting there at 14 as well, MAYBE. 

[LuckyIrish23]

13 minutes ago, Golfman said:

I'd be more than happy with the draft and the players you offered as free agents. If you get Eifert for 3-million I'd guess it's a one year prove it deal. Curious, since you restructureed Jordy, does that mean Cobb and Matthews play on existing contract? 

I'm not a fan of Jahri Evans, at least not the player in his mid-thirties we got last year. I think it's time to move on from him. Love Colvin sigininig. 

Yeah in this mock I have Cobb and Matthews staying on their contracts. I feel that Cobb would not take less and the Packers would not want to cut him loose. With Matthews they might think he has some left in the tank and again they won’t want to just cut him. Evans at that price is a stop-gap just in case. 

[jleisher]

I hope you all are correct about Landry, I could live with this.  As for the 5th rd picks, guys you can hit gold on any pick at any round, the odds are slim, but it can happen.  This is just my thoughts, but my #1 pick would have to be someone that can start this year, BPA, regardless of team needs.  Rounds 2-4, then you go for team needs, Round 5, depth/ST and rounds 6-7 development.  Thanks for your mock!  Want to see the other rounds.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

My take on acquiring picks (well this year anyway) is that unless there is a player the Packers really like at #14, that is the pick where you move down. It gives you back the most value for the smallest move, and allows a move up in round 2 or 3 (assuming you can make the trades, which you cannot always do). A move down of just 4 spots in round one equals the ninth pick in round three, extra (JJ. chart). The  4th plus 5th non-comp picks bundled together  (maybe throw in a comp 6th) might just get you another pick at the tail end of round 3.

If both those deals were made, the Pack would get round 1, pick #18, round 2 pick 45, and three 3rd rounders (approx the 9th, 12th and a tail end pick). They would still have picks left ine every round, so they could chase any later bargains they see there. I think you could then address three of WR/CB/TE/OT with three 3rds.

The problem is that making any notable move up requires the Packers to cough up our 2nd round pick, which further hampers our ability to maneuver around in the draft.  Without that 2nd round pick, you're next earliest pick will be the early 3rd round pick if you made a second move up.  That's two picks in the first 76 picks, so that player you moved up in the 1st round better be a sure-fire stud if you're making a move up the board.  More often than not, that's not going to be the case.  And if you're talking about a "minor" move up, you're giving up your 3rd round pick to move up a few spots.  Is the player you're picking at say 10 really that much better than what you're getting at 14?  Probably not.  So that's probably a rather pointless move-up.

And the moving backward is going to piss of a TON of fans, although it gives the Packers added flexibility to move around.  Let's say that Lamar Jackson is the last notable QB prospect is available, Buffalo could be intrigued enough to make a move up.  Obviously, the Bills aren't going to give up both 1st round picks but them coughing up their first 1st round pick and their 2nd round pick could make it worth the Packers.  And then the Packers then use the Bills 2nd round pick along with their natural 3rd round pick, and move back into the early 2nd round pick.  That's potentially 3 picks in the top 45 picks.  That's enough to make a dent on the Packers' issues.  You could grab Harold Landry at 21, Isaiah  Oliver with the 2nd round trade-up, and then Mark Andrews with their natural 2nd.