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goldfishwars

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On 3/5/2018 at 6:01 PM, CWood21 said:

I think the bigger question is who are they trying to dangle as their pick?  Is it Barkley, one of the QBs, or someone else?  Assuming Cleveland takes one of the QBs, you'll have the choice of any of the other players.  Would New York be interested in jumping Denver if they have a preference at QB?  Probably.  But it's a HELL of a lot cheaper to negotiate with Cleveland at 4 than New York at 2.  Obviously, you run the risk that your guy gets snatched up before then.

No, history clearly shows hat when top 5 picks are concerned, you need a QB to get a team to pay that kind of price to move up. Nobody will pay that price for Barkley, knowing Hunt and Kamara were gotten in round 3. All the trades into the top 5 especially for pick #2,3 and 4 would all involve QB's, if they all happen. To even open up the trade market, the Giants will have to decide on Eli and the Colts will have to decide on Luck, if neither team has an interest in a QB, then the trading market will be open for business and we will not likely know the outcome till draft day.

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31 minutes ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

A.) Best case scenario is one of the top 4 fall out of the top ten and we can make a trade to that spot.

B.) We found our guy, go get him in the top 5. How else could we possibly get out of QB purgatory? This is our chance. This is why we built up the draft capital. I’d easily take a franchise QB over 4 really good players.

The Bills are caught between a rock and a hard place. I cannot see any scenario unless one of the top 4 QB's slides in the draft and I see no indication of it, where Buffalo can secure one. Jackson seems their likely option or possibly Rudolph. Arizona, the Jets and Denver all have higher 1st rounders to offer plus next year's first rounder if necessary, so I would put Buffalo ability to move up from #21 and 22 at around 10%. 

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59 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Who's going to throw passes for Buffalo? Besides, they have a pretty good roster overall. They just need the QB.

It will in all likelihood, be Jackson or Rudolph. I do not believe they have the ammunition to move up too far and teams drafting in the top 5 currently, will be extremely reluctant to move out of the top 10 in return for their pick. 

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54 minutes ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

A.) Best case scenario is one of the top 4 fall out of the top ten and we can make a trade to that spot.

B.) We found our guy, go get him in the top 5. How else could we possibly get out of QB purgatory? This is our chance. This is why we built up the draft capital. I’d easily take a franchise QB over 4 really good players.

I guess I just don’t understand how that’s the take away after a season where Nick Foles won the SB and Case Keenum and Blake Bortles were in the Championship game. It’s a rare deep class with little to separate the top five (in my opinion), one will drift closer your way. No need to sell the house to move to 2. Draft capital should get you more shots in the draft crapshoot, not less.

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1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

Who's going to throw passes for Buffalo? Besides, they have a pretty good roster overall. They just need the QB.

I don’t know about that. It’s a very thin roster which overachieved last year and has holes at several spots. It’ll be interesting to see what they do in FA.

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6 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

I guess I just don’t understand how that’s the take away after a season where Nick Foles won the SB and Case Keenum and Blake Bortles were in the Championship game. It’s a rare deep class with little to separate the top five (in my opinion), one will drift closer your way. No need to sell the house to move to 2. Draft capital should get you more shots in the draft crapshoot, not less.

Definitely fair points.

That said, look at the Rams trading up to get Goff AND the Eagles trading up for Wentz, who would probably have been the MVP if not for the injury in December. Foles was definitely a playoff monster, but the system in place compounded with an MVP caliber QB who got them a homefield advantage situation was one of the reasons that they were able to get to the Super Bowl.

Throw in people WAY overpaying for QBs in terms of draft capital and draft position, and you'll be the odd man out where Buffalo is sitting in the early 20s. That's probably Mason Rudolph territory these days.

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8 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

I guess I just don’t understand how that’s the take away after a season where Nick Foles won the SB and Case Keenum and Blake Bortles were in the Championship game. It’s a rare deep class with little to separate the top five (in my opinion), one will drift closer your way. No need to sell the house to move to 2. Draft capital should get you more shots in the draft crapshoot, not less.

I understand, but I’m still of the belief that a franchise QB that’s on a rookie contract is the best way to build. It gives you that window of not investing heavily into the position where you can spend elsewhere. This is of course if you are 100% sold on a player, don’t do it just to do it. If it comes out that they have the same belief as you do that there’s not much of a gap between say Darnold and Jackson, then yeah sit back, but I’d be pissed if they were over the moon for someone and were gun shy to make the move to get him.

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8 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

I don’t know about that. It’s a very thin roster which overachieved last year and has holes at several spots. It’ll be interesting to see what they do in FA.

Agreed with this. Our recieving core and front 7 primarily. Our entire front 7 is replaceable, it’s atually pretty bad. Makes me love our secondary even more when you think about the fact that they had zero pass rush in front of them. McDermott works magic in the secondary.

Benjamin is a good weapon to have for a potential rookie QB, but i’d really love to kick the tires on Allen Robinson, and dare i say it Sammy Watkins (given the price). I was the first one loving the Sammy trade last year because i didn’t want to pay him big bucks but if we can snag him at under 10 mil per year (big if) I’d do it on a 3 year deal.

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13 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

I guess I just don’t understand how that’s the take away after a season where Nick Foles won the SB and Case Keenum and Blake Bortles were in the Championship game. It’s a rare deep class with little to separate the top five (in my opinion), one will drift closer your way. No need to sell the house to move to 2. Draft capital should get you more shots in the draft crapshoot, not less.

See, it is the statement "with little to separate the top 5" that is simply not true. By now, the scouts, HC's ad GM's have separated the QB's significantly into 2 or possibly 3 to 5 groups and the top 2 are now well established. Even the #1 is known by every team, no matter all the rumours. The only QB whose position might still be flexible is Allen's, depending on how much improvement he has made in the off season.

I can see clearly, a scenario where the top 4 QB's are all gone by the 6th pick, maybe even the 5th and to trade up from #21/22 to a pick that high, over teams which can offer a significantly higher pick, is a tough road and not very successful too often. While Buffalo may have 2 first rounders, other teams can offer their 2019 first rounder as well, shrinking Buffalo's advantage by quite a lot.

Buffalo will probably have to settle for Jackson or Rudolph with a very slight chance at Allen. Of course, if Foles and Keenum come on the open market, they may well choose to go in one of those directions.

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14 minutes ago, bigbadbuff23835 said:

Agreed with this. Our recieving core and front 7 primarily. Our entire front 7 is replaceable, it’s atually pretty bad. Makes me love our secondary even more when you think about the fact that they had zero pass rush in front of them. McDermott works magic in the secondary.

Benjamin is a good weapon to have for a potential rookie QB, but i’d really love to kick the tires on Allen Robinson, and dare i say it Sammy Watkins (given the price). I was the first one loving the Sammy trade last year because i didn’t want to pay him big bucks but if we can snag him at under 10 mil per year (big if) I’d do it on a 3 year deal.

Keep in mind, the NFL is a schedule/QB league and the chances for a wildcard to repeat is practically nil. The NFL schedules are set up each year so that certain division draw the tougher opposing divisions and certain divisions draw the weakest opponent divisions. If your division draws a stronger division, it is rare for them to get a wildcard team, if they draw a weak division, there chances of producing a wildcard team increases significantly. This is how the NFL guarantees many new teams into the playoffs each year and only a franchise QB is capable of upsetting these odds.

Buffalo was one of those wildcard teams that benefited from weak divisional opponents and without a franchise QB, their chances of repeating, are almost zero.

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2 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Definitely fair points.

That said, look at the Rams trading up to get Goff AND the Eagles trading up for Wentz, who would probably have been the MVP if not for the injury in December. Foles was definitely a playoff monster, but the system in place compounded with an MVP caliber QB who got them a homefield advantage situation was one of the reasons that they were able to get to the Super Bowl.

Throw in people WAY overpaying for QBs in terms of draft capital and draft position, and you'll be the odd man out where Buffalo is sitting in the early 20s. That's probably Mason Rudolph territory these days.

I’m not sure those are good arguments for selling four top 2 round picks for a shot to draft one of this year’s QB’s.

If we believe everything about Lamar Jackson’s stock, he should be there for 22 and if the option is drafting him plus keeping the other three picks where I can plug gaps in my front seven, receiver and interior line versus one of Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold/Allen then I’m taking that all day long.

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7 minutes ago, goldfishwars said:

I’m not sure those are good arguments for selling four top 2 round picks for a shot to draft one of this year’s QB’s.

If we believe everything about Lamar Jackson’s stock, he should be there for 22 and if the option is drafting him plus keeping the other three picks where I can plug gaps in my front seven, receiver and interior line versus one of Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold/Allen then I’m taking that all day long.

Not a bad plan IMO, but because of the position, it still might require a small trade up to ensure getting him.

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