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2018 Vikings Draft Prospects - Secondary


swede700

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I went and watched a few of his games. I like how often he lines up over the slot receiver and sticks them man to man.

Add him to this team, run some big nickel looks this year where he comes in over the slot instead of Mack Alexander, and then next year he replaces Andrew Sendejo if we need the $5.5M in cap space to re-sign someone else.

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On 3/19/2018 at 2:14 PM, Krauser said:

How many teams have 3 starting caliber corners? How many teams have a 3rd best corner who's clearly better than Alexander? 

Alexander wasn't bad last year, the first year where he actually got to play. 3rd best passer rating allowed in the NFL on coverage snaps from the slot, and middle of the pack on most other stats (yards per cover snap etc). It's fair to expect him to have a bigger role in 2018, and to play better. 

overall though PFF rated alexander as the 105th best corner last season, not exactly "starting calibre". newman and waynes were ranked 66th and 69th, respectively, and i doubt there is another team with three corners rated in the top 70 but newman is very likely to slow down (is it just me or was he slowing down towards the end of last season?). playing alexander ~90% of snaps going forward is less than ideal, never mind if one of rhodes/waynes/alexander gets injured. 

obviously he could improve but that's not necessarily a given. PFF put out an article recently about the trend of slot receivers/nickel corners: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-examining-the-value-of-slot-defensive-backs

i don't have PFF premium but it seems that the article is leading to the conclusion that it is more efficient for offenses to throw in the slot either to the slot receiver or tight end. that just means that having a quality nickel corner is going to be more important in the near future. 

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Alexander should improve this year. Waynes got a lot better in year 3, which is what Alexander is heading into right now.

Even if he doesn't get much better, they're only asking him to be a CB3, and play in the slot. Alexander was half decent in the slot last year based on PFF charting numbers -- 30th/55 ( with >25% cover snaps) in yards per cover snap, just behind Tyrann Mathieu and ahead of Captain Munnerlyn, for instance. 

Still, I'm not saying Alexander is a starting calibre CB. I'm saying most teams don't have 3 starting calibre CBs. You actually agree with me: 

Quote

i doubt there is another team with three corners rated in the top 70

If it's not a problem for most teams not to have 3 starting calibre corners, why is it such a problem for the Vikings that their 3rd best corner (4th best last year) isn't starting calibre?

Why is it does CB to be addressed with the biggest draft investment this year, when they already have 2 legitimate starting CBs in their prime, under contract until 2020 or later, and there are much bigger holes on the team?

...

I don't know where you got your PFF ranks, but if you use the total grade for CBs playing greater than 25% of snaps (have to go lower than the default 50% because otherwise Alexander doesn't count), the 2017 Vikings ranked: 

  • 25th (Rhodes)
  • 25th (Newman)
  • 32nd (Waynes)
  • 102nd (Alexander)

That's out of 120 CBs, so roughly 4 per team. Vikings had 3 guys in the top 32, where the average team could expect to have 1, and one in the bottom quarter, where the average team could expect to have 1.

Compare that to the OL. For players with >25% of snaps: 

  • Elflein 36th of 38 C
  • Berger 18th and Easton 65th of 80 G
  • Remmers 29th, Hill 53rd, and Reiff 71st of 83 T

Assuming Berger is gone, that leaves Remmers as the only guy who made the top 32 at his position last year, and 2 starters didn't even make the top 64. 

Which position is the bigger weakness, and the more pressing need? 

 

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I don't think Secondary is a 1st round need...  I think it is OL ... but DB could be a a 2nd/3rd round need.

Newman may or may not be gone ... could be expected to regress if he stays on the roster.

Waynes as of right now, is a free agent at the end of the year (current salary $3.2M), and its unknown if Vikings will spend the ~$10.6M to retain him. They will likely need to decide on that figure, before they can likely come to any potential agreements with Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. I wouldn't lock in the worse player at a hugely inflated salary, and then want to start negotiations with better players afterwards.

Alexander was #102, sure he could improve, but what does he become.

 

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1 hour ago, CriminalMind said:

Waynes as of right now, is a free agent at the end of the year (current salary $3.2M), and its unknown if Vikings will spend the ~$10.6M to retain him. They will likely need to decide on that figure, before they can likely come to any potential agreements with Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. I wouldn't lock in the worse player at a hugely inflated salary, and then want to start negotiations with better players afterwards.

https://overthecap.com/player/trae-waynes/3859/

Waynes cap hit is $4.1M this year, it was $3.5M last year.

The 5th year option will be roughly $9M not $10.6M. It’s based on other top CB salaries, not cap hits (which include prorated signing bonuses etc).

The deadline for picking up Waynes option is coming up soon, in May IIRC. The Vikings usually negotiate long term extensions with players going into their final years (2015 draft class plus Barr) around training camp. Unlikely they’re going to have multiple extensions done by the time the decision has to be made on Waynes option. 

Picking up his option doesn’t “lock in” Waynes in 2019. He can be cut or traded. It’s only guaranteed in case of injury. 

$13M for 2 more years of Waynes as CB2 is completely reasonable. He was pretty good last year, and he’s been getting better. 

I’m on board with the idea that he will likely need to be replaced in 2020, but that’s not even close to the biggest concern facing this roster right now — they need to significantly improve the OL, this year.

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8 hours ago, Krauser said:

I don't know where you got your PFF ranks

...

Which position is the bigger weakness, and the more pressing need? 

 

i don't have PFF premium so i just go to their profile pages where it has their grade and rank relative to position.

i'm not disputing that the offensive line is weaker than our cornerback group and i would love if someone like isaiah wynn fell to us at 30, i just don't think it's likely. given the depth of the iOL class we could reasonably draft two starters in rounds 2 and 3 and use our first rounder at a position where it's tougher to find premium talent. 

 

my draft hope is that we trade back out of the first round (unless one of the top offensive lineman fall) and then take an offensive lineman with our first or second 2nd round pick. i just wouldn't be upset if they stayed at 30 and took the best CB, DT, WR, etc. available.

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I am fully on board with the notion that offensive line is an immediate need (holes the team projects need to be filled this year) on the Vikings. However, I do not like using the draft to address immediate needs; free agency is for immediate needs. The draft is best for addressing impending needs (holes the team projects need to be filled next year or for lower round picks within two years). Given that the team controls Waynes for two more years I do not see CB as a position of focus for the draft. If the team wants to replace Sendejo next year they may see safety as an impending need and be looking at safeties in the draft.

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1 hour ago, Krauser said:

 

https://overthecap.com/player/trae-waynes/3859/

Waynes cap hit is $4.1M this year, it was $3.5M last year.

The 5th year option will be roughly $9M not $10.6M. It’s based on other top CB salaries, not cap hits (which include prorated signing bonuses etc).

The deadline for picking up Waynes option is coming up soon, in May IIRC. The Vikings usually negotiate long term extensions with players going into their final years (2015 draft class plus Barr) around training camp. Unlikely they’re going to have multiple extensions done by the time the decision has to be made on Waynes option. 

Picking up his option doesn’t “lock in” Waynes in 2019. He can be cut or traded. It’s only guaranteed in case of injury. 

$13M for 2 more years of Waynes as CB2 is completely reasonable. He was pretty good last year, and he’s been getting better. 

I’m on board with the idea that he will likely need to be replaced in 2020, but that’s not even close to the biggest concern facing this roster right now — they need to significantly improve the OL, this year.

The deadline for picking up options is very close after the draft in early May.

Yes, there not going to have multiple extensions done by the time the decision needs to be made on Waynes, as I stated.

Picking up the option "locks" the funds during that crucial negotiating period (around training camp), where another players/agents will see that we're intent on giving Waynes ~$9M for that one year. It could lead to more complicated negotiations, and an agent will question why should his client (Barr\Hunter\Diggs) take any value-team friendly deal, when we're prepared to overpay an average player in Waynes for $+9M, and likely the weakest part of the defense.

What matters is Vikings have the choice if to give Waynes $+9M, which could potentially lead to other better players not being able to be signed or other players not willing to take team friendly deals. That's not worth it as Waynes is basically just an average player anyway. You got to be careful what money does to who, cause everyone is watching now.

I'm on board with having a plan to replace him (move on or trade) after the end of the coming season & not paying him $+9M for a 1 year contract ... and letting another team overpay for his average services (since CB market is crazily inflated) and taking the 3rd/4th comp pick (which we would not get if he was cut). I still like OL in the 1st round, but CB shouldn't be ignored in the 2nd or 3rd round. This would be prudent based on the play he has shown thus far.

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Passer rating allowed is a stat that has almost as much to do with defensive line as it does the CBs. Since our CBs all have the same line it might be possible to draw some information out about rankings of the CBs on the team. But I am pretty sure that Alexander is not better than Rhodes so those numbers are meaningless to me.

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