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AnAngryAmerican

Broncos QB Discussion Thread

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Despite my fear of turning this into the message board version of The Fan, there is a lot of QB talk going on in multiple threads so I figured I would just put it all in one place. 

I'm going to share some of my (rather lengthy) thoughts on the whole situation and then let you guys have at it. I'll start this thread with two posts, the first on what I think we should do and will do and the second on my thoughts on each of the top four QB prospects in the draft, which I have a spent a fair amount of time scouting and evaluating in the last week.  

Part One:

Firstly, and on this I do not think there is any debate, signing Kirk Cousins in free agency is Plan A. Some of you might not like that but I think it's just about carved in stone that Elway is going to go all-in on landing Cousins and will put on the proverbial full-court press just as he did with Peyton Manning. Cousins is a sure-thing, a franchise QB who instantly vaults us back into the playoffs, the AFCW championship conversation and, hopefully with a couple good drafts and the development of some younger players, back into the Super Bowl conversation if not in 2018 than by 2019.

I think there are two legitimate contenders for Cousins' services, us and the Minnesota Vikings. I don't think Cleveland, the Jets or Arizona are truly viable options for him. If Cousins wants to go to the team with the best roster and the best coaching staff, he will go to Minnesota. Zimmer is 10x the coach Vance is and has very solid job security (which Vance doesn't), the Vikings roster is loaded with young talent and they have top-notch facilities (like we do).

What works against Minnesota is that they play in the NFC, which is absolutely stacked. Philly, who just won the Super Bowl with their backup QB, isn't going anywhere for a while. The LA Rams, Dallas, Carolina and Atlanta are all deeply talented teams with legit QBs in or entering their prime. Aaron Rodgers has at least three elite years left, maybe as many as five, and Green Bay is a Tiffany franchise. Seattle still has a relatively young, elite QB and while Drew Brees is on the 17th green of his career, Sean Payton is an outstanding head coach and if he can find Brees' successor there is no reason not to think the Saints' extremely young and extremely talented roster won't keep that team in the hunt for the next several years. Then there's the 49ers who have a) someone who appears to be a franchise QB b) a highly-regarded young HC and c) a GM who continues to impress league observers on a daily basis. And, oh yeah, they have 10 draft picks and $71m in cap space.

The AFC, on the other hand, is far more wide-open. The only ascendant franchise is Jacksonville and they just married themselves to the inconsistent Blake Bortles for the next three years. The Patriots' and Steelers', the two of the four AFC stalwarts (along with us and Indy) of the last 15 years, windows are very close to closing. The Chiefs have some potential with Patrick Maholmes, who looks like the real deal, and could be around for a while and maybe Jon Gruden proves not to be the most overrated coach NFL history and gets the Raiders back into contention. But Phillip Rivers in San Diego, just like Brady and Ben, isn't going to be around much longer and that franchise is a train wreck after their move to LA. Maybe the Patriot Way will work out with the talented rosters and young QBs in Houston and Tennessee, but I'm not holding my breath. If Andrew Luck can be Andrew Luck Indy will be a factor but not until that team can put some real talent around him. This is a selling point for Elway that I expect him to use in his pitch to Cousins. 

If Plan A doesn't work out, Plan B has to be to draft a QB at the top of this year's draft. That QB has to be announced in his introductory press conference as the day one starter who is entrenched at the top of the depth chart and will be thrown to the wolves from day one, no matter how he looks in camp, the preseason or the regular season; his job security as the No. 1 QB for the 2018 season is as secure as Tom Brady's. 

Does anyone think it would make any sense to sign someone like Case Keenum for $15m/year and draft a QB with our first pick? That would literally be the worst decision we could make. Lets redshirt the rookie while we start a middling QB and try to get an 8-8 season that both misses the playoffs and keeps us out of the top half of the draft. Then the calls for Vance's head get too loud for even Joe Ellis to ignore and, come 2019, we've lost another year of our defense, don't know what we have with our highly-drafted QB and get to go through the process of a new coaching staff with new schemes, new approaches and have to sell that coaching staff on being married to the QB we know nothing about.   

Without Cousins, the plan has to be to keep the players we have (including Talib and maybe even C.J.), spend our money on free agents who help now and draft the best players we can with each of our remaining picks. The rookie QB is the starter from day one no matter what while Paxton Lynch and Machine Gun Kelly are his backups. Hopefully, in this scenario, by 2019 we know we drafted the right QB who learned from his rookie year, has a talented roster around him and is ready to go in season two, i.e. the Jared Goff model.  

Edited by AnAngryAmerican

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Part Two

Here are my thoughts on the top four QBs. I've spent a fair amount of time the last week or so studying and evaluating these guys and have come to following conclusions. 

Ranked:

1. Josh Rosen - He is hands down the best QB prospect in this draft. There is really nothing to not like about his game; he looks the part of a NFL franchise QB, he can make any throw needed, he has ideal mechanics and footwork, he can read defenses and go through progressions, he has good timing and anticipation, he throws receivers open, he can operate under center, he sells play-action and RPO well and he can make plays with his legs when he needs to and he has experience as a starter. From everything I have read and heard, he is a hard-worker who is willing and eager to put in the time and effort needed to succeed, he has plenty of confidence. I have ZERO concerns about his on-field ability. He is also very smart (morons don't get accepted to Stanford and UCLA if they're QBs) so there's no concern that he couldn't quickly digest a NFL playbook.  

The negatives, or concerns, about Rosen are well-known, the two I's - injuries and intangibles. As far as the intangibles, this is something where he has reportedly been putting in work and has made strides in the last 12-18 months. Elway has a good feel for people and I think he will be able to, after spending some time with Rosen (as he said he would both this week and in the private invite to Dove Valley that he said yesterday Rosen will be invited to) I think Elway can make a yea or nay decision. The other concern is Rosen's willingness to speak out on hot-button social/political issues, he's a not a shut-up and dribble pass guy. This could concern Ellis more than Elway as he's not going to want the franchise QB creating PR headaches and pissingoff half the fan base. Regarding injuries, they are a concern as they would be with any prospect. He has a lean frame but I'm not worried that a NFL strength and conditioning program can see him easily add 10-15lbs of muscle mass, he certainly has the frame to hold it. Ceiling: Hall of Famer / Floor: Middle-tier, long-term starter (e.g. Drew Bledsoe) 

2. Sam Darnold - The more I watch of Darnold the more I like. I was initially concerned about the turnovers and his throwing motion but after watching a lot of tape on him I think those are both somewhat overblown, though not unfounded. I think early this year Darnold put too much on his shoulders, bought into the suck-for-Sam narrative and felt he had to do it all. He tried to do too much. The concern with this is when he's taken early in the draft, and he certainly will be, is he going to put too much pressure on himself again? There reports he had confidence issues early in the year and that could have been a byproduct of trying too hard and it not working out. Last year (2016) he played like he was playing with house money and just went out played, and played phenomenally. His throwing motion is unorthodox but it doesn't cause him any problems, i.e. he doesn't get passes batted down at the line, his accuracy doesn't noticeably change, he's not inconsistent, and he get the ball out quickly.  

I think he would be a perfect fit in a West Coast offense, and I believe that is the offense that Musgrave (not to mention Elway) would prefer for us to run. He moves around well in the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield and is willing to run if he needs to, but he's a pass-first QB. He also is reported to have elite intangibles like leadership and football IQ when I watch him play I see just much moxie and competitiveness as I see in Mayfield but channeled in a more sportsman-like manner. He needs to learn to hold onto the ball when he gets hit and make better decisions on some throws, something that NFL coaching will provide him. It sounds silly I know but a USC QB who checks all the boxes scares me. Like many before him, Darnold is a winner, a leader, a smart guy, a competitor, a good guy in the locker room and the community, he is the product of a NFL-style offense and has more than adequate physical tools to succeed at the pro level. In other words, he's the same guy as Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez, among others. Ceiling: Franchise QB, multiple Pro Bowls / Floor: Long-term career backup

3. Josh Allen - He has jaw-dropping physical skills and I mean he is a Cam Newton- / Andrew Luck- like physical freak, but with a stronger arm. I would wager I am the only person on this forum to see him play in person, and I've seen him twice as my girl and I are both CSU alums with season tickets and go to some of the close away games like Wyoming. Allen was the closest things to a one-man show I've seen, especially this year. He throws great on the run, can extend plays and has the size and strength to fight off defenders in the pocket. Wyoming also incorporates quite a bit of NFL concepts in their offense, albeit relatively elementary ones, and he has experience from under center. I know because he's tall, has a big arm and makes plays with his legs it's natural for Broncos fans to compare him to Paxton, but he doesn't have Paxton's aloofness and is a big-time gamer, a student of the game and he gets high marks for his intelligence, both football and otherwise. 

All that said, there are real concerns regarding his accuracy and his below-expected play this year. Considering that he didn't exactly play against the best competition the college game has to offer and there are valid concerns. That being said, in contrast to the always 80 and sunny SoCal that Rosen and Darnold played in, Wyoming's weather sucks, cold, windy, snowy, etc. While did not face elite competition, by any stretch, he wasn't surrounded by much in the way talent. Unlike the other three on this list, all of whom have multiple teammates who will play on Sundays, Allen was playing with a bunch of guys who went to college to get a degree and football was a sidebar. In that respect, he's a lot like both Joe Flacco and Carson Wentz, physically-talented prospects from schools not exactly known for their football programs. He is a risky pick, a pretty risky one, but I'd wager that with the right coaching and a good supporting cast he has the potential to maximize his physical tools and become an elite NFL QB. The reason I have Allen ranked lower than Darnold is that while Allen has the higher ceiling, he also has a lower floor, i.e. Darnold is a safer pick. Ceiling: Hall of Famer / Floor: Bust

4. Baker Mayfield - Mayfield is kind of the opposite of Darnold for me, the more I see, the less I like. Already were the concerns about playing in a gimmick offense in a conference that doesn't play defense, but his accuracy and athleticism are over-hyped. I love his intensity, his competitive spirit, the way he gets his teammates fired up and he throws well on the run. But it really ends there. A 71 percent completion percentage looks nice on paper until you watch the tape and see that on most of his throws the receivers were open if not wide-open. I only saw a handful of times where he squeezed the ball into a tight window, unlike the many, many times I saw Darnold and Rosen do that. His mechanics and footwork need a lot of work, he gets happy-feet far too often. His ability to ad-lib is great for the college game but no way it will work in the NFL. His constant dancing around in the pocket before scrambling outside will get him killed in the NFL, throw in his slight stature and durability is going to be a major concern. So many of his chuck-and-pray passes will be intercepted in the NFL. 

He's exciting to watch to play and that's what gets people hyped up about him but I have a hard time seeing him transition to be a legitimate starting QB in the NFL. The only way I see him panning out is if a team can be awfully patient and basically invent an offense that masks his deficiencies and takes advantage of the few things he does well. I do not see a Russell Wilson clone as Wilson was a better athlete with a better arm and had experience in a pro-style offense at Wisconsin and played against NFL-like defenses in the BIG TEN. I don't think his upside, even with the right offense and some luck is as high as any of the other three and he has just as high of a bust potential as anyone. Ceiling: Inconsistent, middle-tier starter / Floor: Bust

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1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Despite my fear of turning this into the message board version of The Fan, there is a lot of QB talk going on in multiple threads so I figured I would just put it all in one place. 

I'm going to share some of my (rather lengthy) thoughts on the whole situation and then let you guys have at it. I'll start this thread with two posts, the first on what I think we should do and will do and the second on my thoughts on each of the top four QB prospects in the draft, which I have a spent a fair amount of time scouting and evaluating in the last week.  

Part One:

Firstly, and on this I do not think there is any debate, signing Kirk Cousins in free agency is Plan A. Some of you might not like that but I think it's just about carved in stone that Elway is going to go all-in on landing Cousins and will put on the proverbial full-court press just as he did with Peyton Manning. Cousins is a sure-thing, a franchise QB who instantly vaults us back into the playoffs, the AFCW championship conversation and, hopefully with a couple good drafts and the development of some younger players, back into the Super Bowl conversation if not in 2018 than by 2019.

I think there are two legitimate contenders for Cousins' services, us and the Minnesota Vikings. I don't think Cleveland, the Jets or Arizona are truly viable options for him. If Cousins wants to go to the team with the best roster and the best coaching staff, he will go to Minnesota. Zimmer is 10x the coach Vance is and has very solid job security (which Vance doesn't), the Vikings roster is loaded with young talent and they have top-notch facilities (like we do).

What works against Minnesota is that they play in the NFC, which is absolutely stacked. Philly, who just won the Super Bowl with their backup QB, isn't going anywhere for a while. The LA Rams, Dallas, Carolina and Atlanta are all deeply talented teams with legit QBs in or entering their prime. Aaron Rodgers has at least three elite years left, maybe as many as five, and Green Bay is a Tiffany franchise. Seattle still has a relatively young, elite QB and while Drew Brees is on the 17th green of his career, Sean Payton is an outstanding head coach and if he can find Brees' successor there is no reason not to think the Saints' extremely young and extremely talented roster won't keep that team in the hunt for the next several years. Then there's the 49ers who have a) someone who appears to be a franchise QB b) a highly-regarded young HC and c) a GM who continues to impress league observers on a daily basis. And, oh yeah, they have 10 draft picks and $71m in cap space.

The AFC, on the other hand, is far more wide-open. The only ascendant franchise is Jacksonville and they just married themselves to the inconsistent Blake Bortles for the next three years. The Patriots' and Steelers', the two of the four AFC stalwarts (along with us and Indy) of the last 15 years, windows are very close to closing. The Chiefs have some potential with Patrick Maholmes, who looks like the real deal, and could be around for a while and maybe Jon Gruden proves not to be the most overrated coach NFL history and gets the Raiders back into contention. But Phillip Rivers in San Diego, just like Brady and Ben, isn't going to be around much longer and that franchise is a train wreck after their move to LA. Maybe the Patriot Way will work out with the talented rosters and young QBs in Houston and Tennessee, but I'm not holding my breath. If Andrew Luck can be Andrew Luck Indy will be a factor but not until that team can put some real talent around him. This is a selling point for Elway that I expect him to use in his pitch to Cousins. 

If Plan A doesn't work out, Plan B has to be to draft a QB at the top of this year's draft. That QB has to be announced in his introductory press conference as the day one starter who is entrenched at the top of the depth chart and will be thrown to the wolves from day one, no matter how he looks in camp, the preseason or the regular season; his job security as the No. 1 QB for the 2018 season is as secure as Tom Brady's. 

Does anyone think it would make any sense to sign someone like Case Keenum for $15m/year and draft a QB with our first pick? That would literally be the worst decision we could make. Lets redshirt the rookie while we start a middling QB and try to get an 8-8 season that both misses the playoffs and keeps us out of the top half of the draft. Then the calls for Vance's head get too loud for even Joe Ellis to ignore and, come 2019, we've lost another year of our defense, don't know what we have with our highly-drafted QB and get to go through the process of a new coaching staff with new schemes, new approaches and have to sell that coaching staff on being married to the QB we know nothing about.   

Without Cousins, the plan has to be to keep the players we have (including Talib and maybe even C.J.), spend our money on free agents who help now and draft the best players we can with each of our remaining picks.The rookie QB is the starter from day one no matter what while Paxton Lynch and Machine Gun Kelly are his backups. Hopefully, in this scenario, by 2019 we know we drafted the right QB who learned from his rookie year, has a talented roster around him and is ready to go in season two, i.e. the Jared Goff model.  

Given what Elway's said today, though, it's really hard to walk back from the lack of commitment he showed to Talib and CJ.  I mean, he committed to Sanders, DT and Wolfe - but said "we have to make tough business decisions sometimes" when it came to Talib and CJ.

Talib's already recognized that DEN is looking to move on - 

In response to NFL's article...

As much as I think highly of Booker's 3rd down / pass catching skills, I think CJ's departure is more an indication of Elway's plan to draft another RB.   Basically, with JC in the fold, it was a waste to have 4 RB's on the 53 man roster.   Obviously, we can't feel comfortable about having only Booker and D-Henderson as our RB's, but this screams that we are going to go after a RB (whether we're lucky enough to get Sony Michel at 2.7, or we get a Rashaad Penny Rd 3, etc.) - but invest a serious pick into RB.   That's all it reflects.   And I loved what CJ gave us last year - but RB is literally the most disposable position around of all the skill positions.

Elway's committed himself down this path, and I don't think it's a coincidence this is taking place even with MIN looking like a far more likely destination than us.   And, as much as I've really disliked many of the recent offseason decisions, parting with vets a year too soon is always preferable than a year too late.   Ideally, we get something for Talib, but the reality is his cap # makes anything but a small return more likely.

If we draft a rookie with 1.5, Elway's not going to quit on 2018, but he's going to hedge his bets, and not go all-in for this year, and still have cap trouble for 2019.   If we don't get Cousins, and go rookie 1.5, I could even see us get rollover for 2019, like he did last year when his options didn't show difference-makers at our need positions (although he should have still explored bargain bin FA, and missed free shots, but that's another thread lol).   This is also his MO of the past - not sacrificing the future health of the franchise (by creating cap hell with backloaded deals, or restructures of salary to bonus to push cap issues down the line).   I think we're seeing the 2019+ hedge as the plan B thinking behind Talib/CJ departure even if Cousins isn't signed.  

 

P.S.  Back to the QB main point - my only disagreement is that I see Darnold's floor as a league-average QB.   Which isn't worth a top 3 pick.  But the ceiling is franchise-level for sure...and I'm a believer.  Same with Rosen. 

P.S.S.  Also don't think we can go Keenum / QB 1.5 either.   Either get a mega-cheap, guy-who-is-left-standing-when-the-other-vets-sign to a sub-10M deal, 1 year deal, and get rookie QB 1.5, if Cousins goes to MIN/elsewhere 's - and that's only if we don't get Rosen/Darnold - we get either of those 2, then get a vet backup only.   But can't go in-between and still pay big $ to someone else and get a rookie 1.5 given where our cap is at and the holes on our roster, either.

Edited by Broncofan

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In case you missed it, the QBs were measured and weighed today. 

A few take-aways. 

-Allen (6'5", 237lbs, 10 1/8" hands) measured in as expected. Nothing to worry about there. 

-Rosen (226lbs) was bigger than I expected. He's not as slight as he looks on TV. 

-Darnold (9 3/8" hands) seems to be okay, most teams prefer 9.5"+ but I doubt most are going to worry about 1/8."

-Mayfield (6"1') was taller than expected, I read some saying he's not even 6' and more likely 5'11." So sorta good news here for him. 

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If we are starting a rookie qb why does it matter who we keep on the defensive side of the ball? And Cj anderson who cares rb is a dime a dozen.

As for as your qb rankings no gripes from me I mean Darnold does have intangibles but the confidence thing is a huge red flag. Also I'm  shocked Lamar Jackson isn't  on your list. He's got the second best  arm in the draft and is extremely athletic.  He like Allen needs to work on his footwork . 

There's a my gut list for me and my heart  list.

My gut qb list 

Rosen 

Darnold 

Allen

Jackson 

Mayfield

My heart 

Rosen

Mayfield

Allen 

Jackson 

Darnold.

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1 minute ago, thebestever6 said:

I'm  shocked Lamar Jackson isn't  on your list. He's got the second best  arm in the draft and is extremely athletic.  He like Allen needs to work on his footwork . 

I just didn't get around to evaluating him. It wouldn't be fair for me to put him in my rankings having not devoted the same time to him as the other four. 

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5 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I just didn't get around to evaluating him. It wouldn't be fair for me to put him in my rankings having not devoted the same time to him as the other four. 

Thats fair I mean for you to come around on a USC guy is alarming. I've also heard great things about Mike White who was a 4 year guy. 

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17 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

I just didn't get around to evaluating him. It wouldn't be fair for me to put him in my rankings having not devoted the same time to him as the other four. 

And where do you evaluate them is there a free site?

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1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Part Two

Here are my thoughts on the top four QBs. I've spent a fair amount of time the last week or so studying and evaluating these guys and have come to following conclusions. 

Ranked:

1. Josh Rosen - He is hands down the best QB prospect in this draft. There is really nothing to not like about his game; he looks the part of a NFL franchise QB, he can make any throw needed, he has ideal mechanics and footwork, he can read defenses and go through progressions, he has good timing and anticipation, he throws receivers open, he can operate under center, he sells play-action and RPO well and he can make plays with his legs when he needs to and he has experience as a starter. From everything I have read and heard, he is a hard-worker who is willing and eager to put in the time and effort needed to succeed, he has plenty of confidence. I have ZERO concerns about his on-field ability. He is also very smart (morons don't get accepted to Stanford and UCLA if they're QBs) so there's no concern that he couldn't quickly digest a NFL playbook.  

The negatives, or concerns, about Rosen are well-known, the two I's - injuries and intangibles. As far as the intangibles, this is something where he has reportedly been putting in work and has made strides in the last 12-18 months. Elway has a good feel for people and I think he will be able to, after spending some time with Rosen (as he said he would both this week and in the private invite to Dove Valley that he said yesterday Rosen will be invited to) I think Elway can make a yea or nay decision. The other concern is Rosen's willingness to speak out on hot-button social/political issues, he's a not a shut-up and dribble pass guy. This could concern Ellis more than Elway as he's not going to want the franchise QB creating PR headaches and pissingoff half the fan base. Regarding injuries, they are a concern as they would be with any prospect. He has a lean frame but I'm not worried that a NFL strength and conditioning program can see him easily add 10-15lbs of muscle mass, he certainly has the frame to hold it. Ceiling: Hall of Famer / Floor: Middle-tier, long-term starter (e.g. Drew Bledsoe) 

2. Sam Darnold - The more I watch of Darnold the more I like. I was initially concerned about the turnovers and his throwing motion but after watching a lot of tape on him I think those are both somewhat overblown, though not unfounded. I think early this year Darnold put too much on his shoulders, bought into the suck-for-Sam narrative and felt he had to do it all. He tried to do too much. The concern with this is when he's taken early in the draft, and he certainly will be, is he going to put too much pressure on himself again? There reports he had confidence issues early in the year and that could have been a byproduct of trying too hard and it not working out. Last year (2016) he played like he was playing with house money and just went out played, and played phenomenally. His throwing motion is unorthodox but it doesn't cause him any problems, i.e. he doesn't get passes batted down at the line, his accuracy doesn't noticeably change, he's not inconsistent, and he get the ball out quickly.  

I think he would be a perfect fit in a West Coast offense, and I believe that is the offense that Musgrave (not to mention Elway) would prefer for us to run. He moves around well in the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield and is willing to run if he needs to, but he's a pass-first QB. He also is reported to have elite intangibles like leadership and football IQ when I watch him play I see just much moxie and competitiveness as I see in Mayfield but channeled in a more sportsman-like manner. He needs to learn to hold onto the ball when he gets hit and make better decisions on some throws, something that NFL coaching will provide him. It sounds silly I know but a USC QB who checks all the boxes scares me. Like many before him, Darnold is a winner, a leader, a smart guy, a competitor, a good guy in the locker room and the community, he is the product of a NFL-style offense and has more than adequate physical tools to succeed at the pro level. In other words, he's the same guy as Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez, among others. Ceiling: Franchise QB, multiple Pro Bowls / Floor: Long-term career backup

 

Just one comment - I didn't see confidence issues with Darnold - the exact opposite, as you mentioned - tried to do too much when there wasn't a play to be had.    Losing p***ed him off, that's what I saw the most.   

The things that he and Rosen can do are just so hard to learn - anticipation, ball placement, fitting into tight windows.   The OSU bowl game, he had literally no help from the OL, and had to throw guys open at least 6-7x - and did so (he also had that bruuuuutal pick 6, completely on him).   What's different from last year - 3 starters from the OL left, the OL was brutal, and JuJu Smith-Schuster and Adoree Jackson (remember, he played both O and D in college) left.    With the drop in talent, he was put in no-win situations more often - and as is the case with uber-talented guys, he tried to do it all, and on many occasions, succeeded - but when he failed, it was in the form of TO's because he couldn't bring himself to just throw a ball away.   The same mentality also is what creates highlight reel plays...but also leads to the "why didn't you cut bait" TO's, too.  Now, that's a skill you do need to learn to know when to call it a day - but it's far easier than learning the others that most QB's lack.   Darnold's TO's should raise flags - but much like Jameis Winston in his senior year at FSU, the reasons aren't related to deficiencies in talent, or key QB skills - and that's more important in projecting future NFL success.

 Now that we know his fumbles aren't due to small hands, I'm totally fine with labelling Darnold as a franchise-ceiling QB.  I hope the Browns have serious concerns - if we get either Rosen or Darnold in this draft, and it doesn't cost us our 2019 1st to move up to get either, I'd be doing cartwheels.

Edited by Broncofan

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This is an extremely hot take thats why I have been afraid to say it but here it goes.  If Rosen doesn't fall or its too rich to trade up. I'd be all for trading down to miami or arizona or a team that falls in love with Mayfield. If the Saints love him there's got to be others. I wouldn't mind getting 2 firsts and a second. Than I'd draft Allen or Jackson. 

We'd essentially get a high upside qb plus 2 picks along with it.

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Cleveland will take a QB with one of the first rounders.  I've read they're high on Allen, maybe pair him with McCarron, then that means IMO one of Darnold or Rosen will be available at #5 which is best case scenario.  This is assuming we don't break the bank on getting Cousins

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2 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Cleveland will take a QB with one of the first rounders.  I've read they're high on Allen, maybe pair him with McCarron, then that means IMO one of Darnold or Rosen will be available at #5 which is best case scenario.  This is assuming we don't break the bank on getting Cousins

If CLE lets either Darnold/Rosen fall, though, I expect someone will call IND for 1.3 (assuming NYG takes 1 of 2 at 1.2, leaving the other at 1.3+).   At 1.3, the price becomes much more palatable (i.e. no need to trade a 2019 1st).  I truly believe if CLE lets Rosen/Darnold fall, we'll see them go 1.2 & 1.3 (trade with IND).

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

If CLE lets either Darnold/Rosen fall, though, I expect someone will call IND for 1.3 (assuming NYG takes 1 of 2 at 1.2, leaving the other at 1.3+).   At 1.3, the price becomes much more palatable (i.e. no need to trade a 2019 1st).  I truly believe if CLE lets Rosen/Darnold fall, we'll see them go 1.2 & 1.3 (trade with IND).

 

 

If, and I realize its an if, Allen goes top 4, then I expect one of them to fall to us.  Barkley is gonna go top 4, all it takes at that point is one of Fitzpatrick, Chubb or Nelson to go to the Browns at the other pick above Denver and it happens.  I really don't see 3 QBs going top 5.  People just saw Nick Foles win a championship and are going to try and stack the rest of the roster with talent instead of taking a chance on a QB.  Who even has the ammo to trade up into the top 5?  Everyone here thinks its super expensive for Denver to try and move up 1 or 2 spots, I can't imagine many teams wanting to trade up with what it will cost.

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5 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

If, and I realize its an if, Allen goes top 4, then I expect one of them to fall to us.  Barkley is gonna go top 4, all it takes at that point is one of Fitzpatrick, Chubb or Nelson to go to the Browns at the other pick above Denver and it happens.  I really don't see 3 QBs going top 5.  People just saw Nick Foles win a championship and are going to try and stack the rest of the roster with talent instead of taking a chance on a QB.  Who even has the ammo to trade up into the top 5?  Everyone here thinks its super expensive for Denver to try and move up 1 or 2 spots, I can't imagine many teams wanting to trade up with what it will cost.

NYJ at 1.6, BUF with 2 2018 1sts, and ARI at 1.12 (and would have to trade 2019 1st), would be the competition. 

NYJ standing pat at 1.6 means they are ok with Mayfield.   They may be fine with that - but remember that at 1.6, they don't need to deal a 2019 1st to move to 1.3 either.   Not having to deal a 2019 1st and moving up to get Darnold/Rosen might appeal to them for the same reasons it appeals to us to have either over Mayfield.

Obviously it's just IMO, but I'd be shocked if Darnold/Rosen don't go 1.2 - 1.3 in a scenario where CLE passes on both at 1.1.  Frankly, we could still see CLE go either at 1.1, too, it could be all smokescreen.   But if CLE passes on both QB's at 1.1, it's pretty clear IND would love to trade down and get better overall in team talent, and at 1.5-1.6 they can also still get an elite talent they'd be just as happy with at 1.3 (Minkah/Chubb/Nelson, 1 of those 3 would be available, if not 2 of them), but even better, get early picks and get 1 of those 3 at 1.5-1.6.

Edited by Broncofan

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Some interesting nuggets in this Yahoo! piece today. One, and again this should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following this franchise or this story with any measure of depth, but two sources confirmed we are going "all-in" on Cousins. 

Quote

Kirk Cousins has become an “all-in” target for the franchise when free agency kicks off March 14, two sources familiar with the Broncos’ free agency plans told Yahoo Sports.

Interesting wording there. "two sources familiar with the Broncos free agency plans," that sounds like it's coming from an agent and not from a source inside Dove Valley. 

More intrestingly, however, is what Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said:  

Quote

"I want to be really careful about taking away from our strength and saying, ‘OK, we’re not going to be able to do this and we’re not going to be able to do that anymore because of financial reasons or something else.”

That sounds to me like ZImmer doesn't want to break the bank on Cousins. We all know Cousins has said that money is only one factor he will consider, and as I said in the OP, Minnesota looks like a better situation on paper and thus Cousins might be willing to take less than market value (at least this market value) to go there. Also, Zimmer isn't the GM and the decision of what size contract to offer will be more up to the Wilfs and Rick Spielman. 

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