Broncos QB Discussion Thread

[brncos4life]

i would be good with keenum for that price and go bpa at 5. Chubb. Minkah nelson. 

[jolly red giant]

42 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

 If Keenum can be had for 16 to 18 mill a year for 3 years. 20 million guaranteed like is being reported that changes everything.  

the guy is most definitely not worth that kind of money - but options can dry up very quickly

[PFM18]

See Von has been banging the drum one more time to try and get Kirk to come here, as have players from other teams who want him.

While FA is exciting, I will be glad once Cousins has decided where to go and makes the move, just so the draft will become that much clearer. 

[Broncofan]

I'm still a firm no to Keenum, as I'm not at all convinced he can be a top 10 QB.   Why would I say that?   Well, some points about Keenum in MIN:

1.  Talent made him better, not the other way around - Diggs & Thielen & Rudolph, plus the running game (with McKinnon as the pass catching threat), gave the MIN QB's great weapons - a top 10 TE, and two top 20 WR's, and a top 10 receiving Rb.  And that's before you get to..

2.   Their much improved OL - while Remmers wasn't a huge upgrade, getting healthy and adding Pat Eflein inside transformed their OL...especially in pass protection.  They graded out as the 6th best OL in pass pro.   They were only 15th in run blocking (and the eye test bore that out), but pass-pro wise, they were a really good unit.   I will point out that Keenum's own play helped reduce sacks - but the OL is literally miles ahead of where we are pass-pro wise.   Better pass protection always makes QB's look their best.   DAL 2016 & 2017 showed this in spades - they made Dak Prescott look like a future star in 2016 - but then with more pressure on him, well, his star talk disappeared in a hurry (still a way better pick than we did with Lynch, though, no doubt).  

3.  Level of Competition - MIN's schedule was literally one of the easiest for QB/WR's - the NFCN and teams MIN faced provided one of the softest secondaries faced.   In fact, for WR's, it was literally the easiest in recent history.  

4.   Game flow - MIN played with an elite D, and with a lead for almost all the games.    As we saw in the first few games, being with that kind of game script is the optimal environment for a QB to succeed.

5.  Elite OC adjustment - much like Foles benefitted from having genius-level game planning with Doug Pederson, OC Fritz Shurmur was recognized for being a top innovator and gamecaller/planner for MIN.   I suspect with a lesser talent, Keenum's flaws would be exposed more regularly. 

Add it all up, while I think Keenum would be clearly better than our 2017 QB's - he was a guy the team's talent, OL, weaker competition faced and the great OC helped play up all of his strengths - but masked weaknesses that have always been there before - and likely are still there now.     If we had no other choices, sure, we could do worse - but we have other choices, and I do want someone with top-10 QB ceiling if you are going to pay that kind of money, for those kind of years.

So no thanks on Keenum.   1-year vet deal and 1.5 QB is still my preferred option, with Cousins out the way (and I was still conflicted even then, given the $ issues it created).   I just have to pray Elway doesn't fall for Allen as the guy - any of the other 3, I'd still prefer (Darnold/Rosen the 2 I am the most confident in), especially given the positional savings can then be used elsewhere.  

[Broncofan]

Multiple sources are reporting that Cousins and MIN have come to an understanding - they can't finalize it until FA opens, but at least this should help Elway and co. crystallize their plan B thinking, as their original plan A is clearly looking less and less likely.

 

 

[PFM18]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Multiple sources are reporting that Cousins and MIN have come to an understanding - they can't finalize it until FA opens, but at least this should help Elway and co. crystallize their plan B thinking, as their original plan A is clearly looking less and less likely.

 

 

Said from the start that I thought Kirk would go to Minnesota. It's clearly the best opportunity for him to win and win now.

Of course, it hasn't happened yet but I'd be surprised if it didn't.

We shouldn't be looking at Keenum. Think the draft is a better option.

[Wolzen]

Just now, PFM18 said:

Said from the start that I thought Kirk would go to Minnesota. It's clearly the best opportunity for him to win and win now.

Of course, it hasn't happened yet but I'd be surprised if it didn't.

We shouldn't be looking at Keenum. Think the draft is a better option.

Agreed draft is the way to go. Rosen is the guy I  believe. We may have to trade up a few spots but I think this is the guy Elway wants. 

[AKRNA]

21 hours ago, germ-x said:

You may have posted this, but what would your offseason look like then?  

I also get what your saying.  I guess my biggest point is at #5 or I guess anywhere in the 1st/2nd round if Denver has a QB targeted as a potential franchise QB for the next 15 years it needs to be the selection because that player isn’t on the roster.  QB is probably the most difficult position in all of sports to fill.  If the opportunity is there it needs to be taken advantage of.

Denver can also fix the OL spending reasonable money this offseason to protect a young QB.  Josh Sitton was rated the best pass blocking OG by PFF and can probably be had on a reasonable 3 year deal (also plays LG and would be a tremendous addition next to Bolles) An interior of Sitton, Paradis, Leary over the next 3 seasons would probably be  a top 8 unit.  RT in FA will be more difficult, but Denver has the ammo to move into the late first or sit at their 2nd in the draft to address that, if they wanted.

@germ-x you win the prize! You just took the QB discussion out of a vacuum. Good solution on the interior. If we draft a rookie QB high we've got to make some serious commitments on the OL.

So, other issues that bother me. Our FO hasn't shown much ability to analyze QB's. Hard to trust their judgment. Maybe adding Kubiak to the mix changes that. I hope so. The  coaching staff hasn't shown any ability to develop QB's either. Hell, Siemian was worse this year than last.

The last issue is the QB's available. No analysts agree on anything. The only one I've seen consistently listed in the top 10 college players is Darnold. So, given our FO deficiencies regarding the QB position, it just seems to be a risky proposition. Maybe we trade down and grab one around 15-20. That'd be fine. I just really hate the idea of using #5 on a QB when not one of them rates that high.

 

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

@germ-x you win the prize! You just took the QB discussion out of a vacuum. Good solution on the interior. If we draft a rookie QB high we've got to make some serious commitments on the OL.

So, other issues that bother me. Our FO hasn't shown much ability to analyze QB's. Hard to trust their judgment. Maybe adding Kubiak to the mix changes that. I hope so. The  coaching staff hasn't shown any ability to develop QB's either. Hell, Siemian was worse this year than last.

The last issue is the QB's available. No analysts agree on anything. The only one I've seen consistently listed in the top 10 college players is Darnold. So, given our FO deficiencies regarding the QB position, it just seems to be a risky proposition. Maybe we trade down and grab one around 15-20. That'd be fine. I just really hate the idea of using #5 on a QB when not one of them rates that high.

 

I was right there with you on Lynch in 2016.   A key difference I have this year is that Darnold and Rosen imo deserve the top 5 spot.  Success at an early age, the ability to throw guys open and the accuracy / reading / anticipation are all there.  

I fear we will instead go for Allen and that’s terrifying.  If we land the other 2 I have no problems whatsoever.  

I respect your view on devaluing QB at the top of the draft - and I agree when it’s a reach it’s not worth it.   Too many times teams squint hard enough and then convince themselves to reach early.   We did that with Lynch.  It rarely ends well.  

But to me Rosen and Darnold have never been reaches.   They have seen as franchise ceiling QB since 2016’s college season.  And unlike Lynch they have safe floors barring injury.  They’ve always been seen as top of the draft guys.  The difference is no one agrees which one belongs where.  And of late ppl have fallen in love with Allen’s tools and ceiling.   Those 2 guys (Darnold and Rosen) I have no problem going and getting.   

[champ11]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

I was right there with you on Lynch in 2016.   A key difference I have this year is that Darnold and Rosen imo deserve the top 5 spot.  Success at an early age, the ability to throw guys open and the accuracy / reading / anticipation are all there.  

I fear we will instead go for Allen and that’s terrifying.  If we land the other 2 I have no problems whatsoever.  

I respect your view on devaluing QB at the top of the draft - and I agree when it’s a reach it’s not worth it.   Too many times teams squint hard enough and then convince themselves to reach early.   We did that with Lynch.  It rarely ends well.  

But to me Rosen and Darnold have never been reaches.   They have seen as franchise ceiling QB since 2016’s college season.  And unlike Lynch they have safe floors barring injury.  They’ve always been seen as top of the draft guys.  The difference is no one agrees which one belongs where.  And of late ppl have fallen in love with Allen’s tools and ceiling.   Those 2 guys (Darnold and Rosen) I have no problem going and getting.   

It gives me hope in regards to passing on Allen that Elway needs to get a guy that can start and play well from day 1. Allen definitely is more of a project than the other guys.

[germ-x]

Honestly, I really don’t care about the FA QBs, outside of Cousins I don’t think any are a long term answer.

My top choice is Sam Darnold.  Uncanny touch and ability the throw receivers open, highly advanced in this area for a 20 year old.  I’ve read him compared to a more athletic Rivers, I definitely see that comparison.

I’ll get heat for this, but my second choice is Josh Allen.  I know he needs some work, but the pure physical talent I’d take the chance all day every day.  He’s also a high character guy/leader who will put in the work to clean up his mechanics (already he’s made great progress not over stepping his throws which is what caused him to sail the football at times).

3rd give me Rosen.  He’s the cleanest prospect, physically almost identical to Eli Manning and Matt Ryan.  Don’t know that he has the head on his shoulders that the other 2 possess.

[Broncofan]

38 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Honestly, I really don’t care about the FA QBs, outside of Cousins I don’t think any are a long term answer.

My top choice is Sam Darnold.  Uncanny touch and ability the throw receivers open, highly advanced in this area for a 20 year old.  I’ve read him compared to a more athletic Rivers, I definitely see that comparison.

I’ll get heat for this, but my second choice is Josh Allen.  I know he needs some work, but the pure physical talent I’d take the chance all day every day.  He’s also a high character guy/leader who will put in the work to clean up his mechanics (already he’s made great progress not over stepping his throws which is what caused him to sail the football at times).

3rd give me Rosen.  He’s the cleanest prospect, physically almost identical to Eli Manning and Matt Ryan.  Don’t know that he has the head on his shoulders that the other 2 possess.

You won't be alone in your increasing love for Allen.   My concerns are 3-fold - first, his improvements are in controlled events, and the fact he didn't do it before, raises the real Q of it's sustainable at the NFL, or he will revert to his habits which he's had years to ingrain, when he's put in the crucible of NFL speed and complexity.   Second, his late rise puts him in more questionable company - sustained success and being seen as top-of-the-draft talent for a longer period of time produces much better results as a group.  The late rise always brings the risk that teams are squinting hard out of need, than evaluation of football skills and their translation to the NFL (and while I love the Combine, it certainly adds to this trap).   Finally, Allen is a guy that would require the most coaching-dependent change in their growth curve - and while I am glad Kubiak is back, let's face it, we've failed miserably in this regard.    I can't deny his ceiling is the highest - but man, that floor is awful low.   Still, you are not alone in your thinking...in a lot of ways, I hope CLE takes the decision with us and falls in that same trap.  

Just so it's clear, though - by your listing 3 guys, with the assumption that Barkley and Chubb will go in the top 5, you are saying you are fine with any of the 3, right?   If Darnold & Rosen are gone, that's where I start to waver on 1.5's choice.   Hopefully, this is the last time we pick this high in a while...but who we pick there probably has a big influence on if that's the case.   I know if it's Darnold/Rosen, I'll sleep easy.   I assume you are saying you'd be fine with any of the 3 at 1.5, right?

 

[germ-x]

12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

You won't be alone in your increasing love for Allen.   My concerns are 3-fold - first, his improvements are in controlled events, and the fact he didn't do it before, raises the real Q of it's sustainable at the NFL, or he will revert to his habits which he's had years to ingrain, when he's put in the crucible of NFL speed and complexity.   Second, his late rise puts him in more questionable company - sustained success and being seen as top-of-the-draft talent for a longer period of time produces much better results as a group.  The late rise always brings the risk that teams are squinting hard out of need, than evaluation of football skills and their translation to the NFL (and while I love the Combine, it certainly adds to this trap).   Finally, Allen is a guy that would require the most coaching-dependent change in their growth curve - and while I am glad Kubiak is back, let's face it, we've failed miserably in this regard.    I can't deny his ceiling is the highest - but man, that floor is awful low.   Still, you are not alone in your thinking...in a lot of ways, I hope CLE takes the decision with us and falls in that same trap.  

Just so it's clear, though - by your listing 3 guys, with the assumption that Barkley and Chubb will go in the top 5, you are saying you are fine with any of the 3, right?   If Darnold & Rosen are gone, that's where I start to waver on 1.5's choice.   Hopefully, this is the last time we pick this high in a while...but who we pick there probably has a big influence on if that's the case.   I know if it's Darnold/Rosen, I'll sleep easy.   I assume you are saying you'd be fine with any of the 3 at 1.5, right?

 

Yes, I’d be fine with any of the 3 at 1.5.

As far as Allen getting hyped late, he wasn’t hyped as late as Wentz.  At the end of last years draft he was thought of as a potential 1st overall pick.

I get that he didn’t have the hype out of HS and he took a different path to division 1 football, but after 1 season playing for Wyoming he was being touted as arguably the best QB heading into the 2018 draft and even with a less than stellar year has continued to keep his name in that discussion.

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Yes, I’d be fine with any of the 3 at 1.5.

As far as Allen getting hyped late, he wasn’t hyped as late as Wentz.  At the end of last years draft he was thought of as a potential 1st overall pick.

I get that he didn’t have the hype out of HS and he took a different path to division 1 football, but after 1 season playing for Wyoming he was being touted as arguably the best QB heading into the 2018 draft and even with a less than stellar year has continued to keep his name in that discussion.

I saw first round pick discussion with, not 1st overall, as the end-of-season inclusion, and whether the QB class would end up as legendary.   Didn't see much 1st-overall because of the recognized weaknesses.   

Either way, though, the huge difference between Wentz and Allen - Wentz's flaws were his lack of big-league competition, deep ball accuracy, and footwork - his short-intermediate accuracy, anticipation and placement, and his ability to throw guys open were cited as his strengths.  The biggest issue was people not knowing if Wentz could catch up with NFL game speed...and how long would it take.   Other than the deep ball issue (which actually was very legit, it's been the last skill to develop, he needs a little more air sometimes, sails the throws on guys who have a 1-2 steps), Wentz's strengths cited pre-draft are the key, hardest-to-learn skills.   No one doubts Allen has the tools, but anticipation/placement and accuracy are Allen's biggest weaknesses - and those are the hardest to learn at the NFL level if you don't have it already, many QB's never fix this.   There's just such a higher risk of going to the graveyard of failed huge-arm prospects.   

Regardless, it's going to make the next 5 weeks pretty crazy.  I can't wait for Draft night.  

[germ-x]

Just now, Broncofan said:

I saw first round pick, not 1st overall.  Either way, though, a huge difference between Wentz and Allen - Wentz's flaws were his lack of big-league competition, deep ball accuracy, and footwork - his short-intermediate accuracy, anticipation and placement, and his ability to throw guys open were cited as his strengths.  Other than the deep ball issue (which actually was very legit, it's been the last skill to develop, he needs a little more air sometimes, sails the throws on guys who have a 1-2 steps), those are the key, hardest-to-learn skills.   No one doubts Allen, but anticipation/placement and accuracy are Allen's biggest weaknesses.   There's just such a higher risk of going to the graveyard of failed huge-arm prospects.   

Regardless, it's going to make the next 5 weeks pretty crazy.  I can't wait for Draft night.  

I can’t either.  The wife is due with our 1st child that weekend, so I may be watching it in the hospital haha.