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Aaron Rodgers and new contract

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Just now, Packerraymond said:

Yeah there's no point arguing it with you, there's one instance in the current era of a team not winning with elite QB play and that's Manning with Denver in a super down year for the NFL in general. 

What do Brady, Rodgers, Manning, and every other great QB have in common?  None of them have ever won a Super Bowl without a defense averaging 20 points or less throughout the playoffs.  It takes a QB to have a good postseason, not a great one. 

Russell Wilson had to throw one touchdown to get to the Super Bowl.  Just one.
Peyton Manning's 2007 Super Bowl win, he threw 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in the postseason.
The "GOAT" Tom Brady threw an entire 0 touchdowns and 1 interception in the two games leading up to the Super Bowl.
Aaron Rodgers threw 2 interceptions in the Championship game.
Foles had 3 touchdowns in 2 games to get to the Super Bowl. 
Peyton Manning sucked heading to and IN the Super Bowl.

Maybe in 3595 the rules will change, but right now, you have to GET to the Super Bowl before you can WIN the Super Bowl, and the only way any team has ever in the history of the event made it to the Super Bowl has been through defense averaging 20 points or less in the postseason.  I can name a whole lot of teams that made it to the Super Bowl with good, bad, awful QB play in the games leading up to it.  Can you name any that had bad defenses in the games leading up to it? 
 

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Just now, Cakeshoppe said:

I don't see anything before 2011 as relevant here. 2011 was the new CBA and marked the beginning of the current passing era. $8M in dead cap in 2018 is 4.5% of the cap.

You do realize that that's still 7 years of no QB getting paid above 12 percent of the cap winning the Super Bowl, right?

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1 minute ago, HorizontoZenith said:

You do realize that that's still 7 years of no QB getting paid above 12 percent of the cap winning the Super Bowl, right?

and how often during that span has a true elite QB actually been payed more than that?

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Posted (edited)
Just now, Cakeshoppe said:

and how often during that span has a true elite QB actually been payed more than that?

That's kinda my point.  Everybody's acting like eventually quarterbacks will be paid 15%, 16%, 17% and up... No.  That's not how it works. 

Teams aren't stupid.  They know this as well as I know it.  Maybe one or two teams in the next 10 years will pay their QB 15%, but once those teams crash and burn, teams will be reminded that you can't devote 15% to 2% of your roster. 

Why do you think the best of the best have always hovered around that 12% mark?  Matt Ryan just signed the biggest one ever, and he's still under 15% of the salary cap.  If I'm reading it right, his cap hit of 17.7 million is damn near 10% of the cap, and his was the monsterest deal ever to this point.  The salary cap rises about 10 million a year.  Next year, Ryan will account for about 12%.  The year after that it will be 15%.  The year after that it will be back under 15% again.  Then well under 15% the final two years.

So 10%, 12%, 15%, then down each remaining year. 

So with Ryan doing that, we're supposed to believe that somehow it's fair for Rodgers to get 15% every single year when we've got him for 4 more years? 

Why am I the only person on here arguing that that's a bad idea? 

Edited by HorizontoZenith

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2 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

That's kinda my point.  Everybody's acting like eventually quarterbacks will be paid 15%, 16%, 17% and up... No.  That's not how it works. 

Teams aren't stupid.  They know this as well as I know it.  Maybe one or two teams in the next 10 years will pay their QB 15%, but once those teams crash and burn, teams will be reminded that you can't devote 15% to 2% of your roster. 

Why do you think the best of the best have always hovered around that 12% mark?  Matt Ryan just signed the biggest one ever, and he's still under 15% of the salary cap.  If I'm reading it right, his cap hit of 17.7 million is damn near 10% of the cap, and his was the monsterest deal ever to this point.  It rises about 10 million a year.  Next year, Ryan will account for about 12%.  The year after that it will be 15%.  The year after that it will be back under 15% again.  Then well under 15% the final two years.

So 10%, 12%, 15%, then down each remaining year. 

So with Ryan doing that, we're supposed to believe that somehow it's fair for Rodgers to get 15% every single year when we've got him for 4 more years? 

Why am I the only person on here arguing that that's a bad idea? 

So you're telling me Cousins got 16, Ryan got 17, Rodgers will probably be 17.5 but when Wentz and Goff come up their teams are going to say "look we're not stupid, no teams win SBs over 15% so we're offering you 14.5" and they'll just agree and take it?

Edit: Also of course the deals fluctuate, are we talking strict AAV or actually yearly breakdown? Are we still stuck of the fake news thing where Rodgers is going to opt out every year? Cause then I'm sorry I even wasted my time arguing a fake hypothetical.

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Just now, Packerraymond said:

So you're telling me Cousins got 16, Ryan got 17, Rodgers will probably be 17.5 but when Wentz and Goff come up their teams are going to say "look we're not stupid, no teams win SBs over 15% so we're offering you 14.5" and they'll just agree and take it?

We're arguing Aaron's contract being tied to a cap percentage.  I've already said that teams can survive one or two years being at 15% cap commitment to their QB (unlikely to win a Super Bowl, but it can happen if a team happens to hit on their rookie, sophomore and junior classes). 

Not arguing opt out clause whatsoever, arguing the (yet to be) debunked suggestion that Rodgers wants his contract tied to a cap percentage.  Cousins counts for over 15% this year, but next year his cap hit goes to about 15%, and the year after that it's below 15%.  If we are stuck paying Rodgers 15% of the cap every single year for the rest of his career, we will not win a Super Bowl during that time. 

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Posted (edited)

I'm not so sure we should just assume the cap is going to grow at its current rate. It could easily plateau a bit as tv viewership in general is starting to plateau. There are probably really smart people drawing up these contracts that can equate a % based deal to a flat deal and make them similar if Rodgers wanted to go that route. 15% is probably just some number thrown out on a whim.

Edited by Jaegybomb

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Just now, Jaegybomb said:

I'm not so sure we should just assume the cap is going to grow at its current rate. It could easily plateau a bit as tv viewership in general is starting to plateau.

And this is another reason we can't go guaranteeing 15% of our cap without even knowing how much that's going to be.  Could you imagine the kind of mess that would be if Aaron's contract guaranteed we paid him 15% of the salary cap, we anticipated it would rise 10 million a year and didn't have enough money to pay everybody? 

I really just hope people don't realize what I'm arguing because if people here are actually okay with guaranteeing Rodgers 15% of the cap for the next six years...

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17 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

And this is another reason we can't go guaranteeing 15% of our cap without even knowing how much that's going to be.  Could you imagine the kind of mess that would be if Aaron's contract guaranteed we paid him 15% of the salary cap, we anticipated it would rise 10 million a year and didn't have enough money to pay everybody? 

I really just hope people don't realize what I'm arguing because if people here are actually okay with guaranteeing Rodgers 15% of the cap for the next six years...

A conventional contract built with the expectation of a rising cap would be a bigger issue than a percentage contract if the cap didn't grow as expected. Also I'm sure team execs have a better idea of the revenue projections than we do.

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5 minutes ago, Cakeshoppe said:

A conventional contract built with the expectation of a rising cap would be a bigger issue than a percentage contract if the cap didn't grow as expected. Also I'm sure team execs have a better idea of the revenue projections than we do.

So a player gets an opt out ability and a set % of the cap.  Are you thinking a player would not opt out if the $$ amount associated with a % of the cap was lower in a subsequent season?

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48 minutes ago, squire12 said:

So a player gets an opt out ability and a set % of the cap.  Are you thinking a player would not opt out if the $$ amount associated with a % of the cap was lower in a subsequent season?

why do we keep adding more and more stipulations to this already bad contract?

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Opt out is crazy talk. Might as well just let him test free agency now.

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On 6/3/2018 at 10:25 PM, Cakeshoppe said:

why do we keep adding more and more stipulations to this already bad contract?

I think it's more likely "or" scenarios. Rodgers wants a contract that pays him like a top level QB beginning to end. Tying the contract to a % of cap, or an opt out/escalator clauses are ways to accomplish this. I don't think they are going to use all of them, but we are hearing whispers of different compromises.

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Posted (edited)

Refreshing,,,,

 

I have two years on my contract. I'm not going to be one to sit here and worry about my contract," Roethlisberger said. "It's important, too, to understand as quarterback of this team, sometimes you almost have to leave a little bit of money behind for other guy"

Edited by fattlipp

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19 minutes ago, fattlipp said:

Refreshing,,,,

 

I have two years on my contract. I'm not going to be one to sit here and worry about my contract," Roethlisberger said. "It's important, too, to understand as quarterback of this team, sometimes you almost have to leave a little bit of money behind for other guy"

Perhaps but is his Favre-esque retirement drama refreshing? 

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