Golfman Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 A few points: 1. I don't think anyone on either side of this subject is arguing he's not the best player at the most important position. 2. Given his wanting to wait until Cousins and Brees get done means he's going to want to be paid top of the class, again, no one can blame him. 3. No one can predict his trade value in two years. 4. In two years his value will go down given his age, that is an almost certainty. 5. In two years are we going to be a a positon to fleece a team that is as well set up as Cleveland to do so with? 6. If you give me Myles Garrett and Bradley Chubb on defense, I'll take my chances our defense is going to be top notch when we only remove Matthews from the equasion. 7. I don't see this happening. If I were Gute I don't know if I'd have the guts to do it either. Either way, I've enjoyed the discussion but see nobody who is in the camp of keep Rodgers at all costs, guaranteeing a Super Bowl with Pettine improving the defense. We are not winning one with the way our defense has played since the END of the Super Bowl season. We all watched the wasting of the last decade of Favre's career. I'm sort of over seeing history repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Golfman said: 7. I don't see this happening. If I were Gute I don't know if I'd have the guts to do it either. *gutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 35 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Is 37 the new 60? Guy isn't out running anyone there, he's literally hopping around. The vision and feel for the OL is leagues more important than athletic ability there. Even that soon to be 41 year old Methuselah in NE can move about in the pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Pugger said: Even that soon to be 41 year old Methuselah in NE can move about in the pocket. Not like Aaron did in that gif he sure can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The fact that he has 2 years at 20/year won't be lost on the organization. Any new deal will factor that into the negotiations. Assume we are going to "rip up his current deal" and pay him 6 years 32/year for a total of 192 Mil, instead we would pay him 6 years 178 mil because he has 2 years at 20 Mil on his current deal. The money will get averaged out into the deal, and we can assign the cap $ how we like. I'm much more worried that Cousins will reset the QB market at about $36 mil/year (20% of the cap) and Aaron will want about 25% of the cap (42 mil). The best QBs are empirically worth 25% of the cap, potentially even more. Cousins is going to change the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Leaving this here... These are the top QB contracts for the previous 5 biggest deals (Only Dalton signed, and at below a top guy rate in 2014). Typically the top QBs are getting around 15% of the current total cap as their AAV. Rodgers pushed that envelope a bit, and I'd expect he'll do the same again this time around ( for reference, the same cap % in 2018 would be 30.6 Mil aav) I'll say this. There's no fundamental reason that teams only want to spend 15% of the cap on QB. They've been getting away with it, but it's hardly equitable from a pure economics standpoint as a player's agent. Name Year Pos Team Age Length Total Avg Practical Gtd %Gtd Total cap year of signing AAV % of total cap Jimmy Garoppolo (2018-2022) 2018 QB SF 26 5 $137,500,000 $27,500,000 $74,100,000 53.89% $183,934,518 14.95% Matthew Stafford (2017-2022) 2017 QB DET 30 5 $135,000,000 $27,000,000 $92,000,000 68.15% $175,074,000 15.42% Andrew Luck (2016-2021) 2016 QB IND 28 5 $122,970,000 $24,594,000 $87,000,000 70.75% $163,439,000 15.05% Russell Wilson (2015-2019) 2015 QB SEA 29 4 $87,600,000 $21,900,000 $61,542,000 70.25% $151,471,000 14.46% Aaron Rodgers (2013-2019) 2013 QB GB 34 5 $110,000,000 $22,000,000 $54,000,000 49.09% $131,925,000 16.68% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kepler Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 hours ago, HorizontoZenith said: *gutes *glutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Kepler said: *glutes From now on, there are no more busts in Green Bay. We will just call them Gute's Toots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 hours ago, skibrett15 said: The fact that he has 2 years at 20/year won't be lost on the organization. Any new deal will factor that into the negotiations. Assume we are going to "rip up his current deal" and pay him 6 years 32/year for a total of 192 Mil, instead we would pay him 6 years 178 mil because he has 2 years at 20 Mil on his current deal. The money will get averaged out into the deal, and we can assign the cap $ how we like. I'm much more worried that Cousins will reset the QB market at about $36 mil/year (20% of the cap) and Aaron will want about 25% of the cap (42 mil). The best QBs are empirically worth 25% of the cap, potentially even more. Cousins is going to change the NFL. And it will be the biggest waste of money, maybe all-time in the NFL. Cousins is a mediocre QB and always will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spilltray Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 It just doesn't work that way. Rodgers isn't going to get a drastically higher contract. That 15-16% is a good ballpark. Just because Cousins gets 15 doesn't mean Rodgers gets 20%. He got money in line with other top qb contracts regardless of performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, spilltray said: It just doesn't work that way. Rodgers isn't going to get a drastically higher contract. That 15-16% is a good ballpark. Just because Cousins gets 15 doesn't mean Rodgers gets 20%. He got money in line with other top qb contracts regardless of performance. why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spilltray Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: why? Because those contracts are assuming Cousins or Cutler or Flacco are going to be elite top flight QB. The fact that they were wrong doesn't mean Rodgers is going to get significantly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, spilltray said: Because those contracts are assuming Cousins or Cutler or Flacco are going to be elite top flight QB. The fact that they were wrong doesn't mean Rodgers is going to get significantly more. Those contracts don't assume (maybe outside of Flacco) that the QB is going to be elite top flight. They simply assign a value the player they are signing. Rodgers got 16.7% of the cap, whereas other "top flight QBs" got 15%. Wilson got <14.5% and his raw total didn't eclipse rodgers even though he signed 2 years later! Rodgers has gotten a premium over the other market setting QBs in terms of % of the cap devoted to him. So let's say Cousins gets 15% (he might get more), why wouldn't rodgers get 16.7% again. Or hell, Cousins is more of an Andy Dalton level QB, a guy who only got 11% of the cap. So if Cousins resets that good not great QB market to 15%... then the Andrew luck/Ben Roethlisberger types would ask for 18-19%, and Rodgers would ask for 20%. Cousins is the first QB since Manning to be a bona-fide Free Agent, not a guy with 1 or 2 years left on his deal. If Rodgers signs for just above Cousins, you can take that as a sign that he "took less" than his market value for the team, or his market value was lower due to his injuries over the past years. It might not get said, it might not be reported on, but it will be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, skibrett15 said: If Rodgers signs for just above Cousins, you can take that as a sign that he "took less" than his market value for the team, or his market value was lower due to his injuries over the past years. It might not get said, it might not be reported on, but it will be true. The biggest impact on his 'market value' is that one team can keep him under contract for significantly less (over that span) that what he'd fetch on a true open market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skibrett15 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, incognito_man said: The biggest impact on his 'market value' is that one team can keep him under contract for significantly less (over that span) that what he'd fetch on a true open market. Sort of. He's sacrificing year to year market value for the security of the gtd money and the time value of the cash in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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