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Aaron Rodgers and new contract


Golfman

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2 hours ago, minnypackerfan said:

Considerations toward trading him:

1.  What is his value and can we get FULL value.  I've stated previously that Cleveland with their 2 first rounders (both very high picks in that round), plus their 2 second rounders (both high second rounders), plus two players (Garrett and their WR) would in my opinion be FULL value.  If we achieved this value, we could go a long way to drafting players that COULD potentially restock the talent on this team.  With this haul we would have 3 first rounders and 3 second rounders...all in the top 45 picks.

2.  We would gain a ton of cap space.  Trading Rodgers costs us absolutely nothing in terms of dead money or cap hit.  So this is your window to trade him.  The cap savings alone would go a ways toward getting other players next year in free agency and continuing to rebuild the team.

IF, you have confidence in your front office to pull this off, you may be in a position to content for the Super Bowl again in 3 years.  Only this time with a much younger, much more talented overall team.  If Rodgers is going to want FULL VALUE, which I totally support him wanting, we should really consider this option.  Rodgers needs to take care of himself from a business point of view, the front office should be mindful of whats best for the team.  Yes, the average fan would vilify Gute, the same they did Thompson when he traded Brett, but you got to do tough things sometimes that get you where you want to be which is WINNING the Super Bowl.

This is what a front office gets paid the big bucks for.

 

 

When was the last time a franchise traded an elite, franchise QB with absolutely no plan behind him?  

We'd be betting the next 5  years that this front office can correctly evaluate a coin flip player.  The hope that this coin flip player is the elite franchise caliber QB that this team requires to be competitive.  I'm not willing to make that bet with this current coaching staff or front office.  We've seen the dumpster first this team is without Aaron Rodgers, I've got no interest in watching a decade of that caliber of football.  

We would be risking the foreseeable future of the franchise with this trade.  The entire front office and coaching staff would be risking their job on the trade.  Not a bet I'd make.  

If there was an Andrew Luck caliber prospect at the top of this draft, maybe its an easier choice but I'm not as enamored with this draft as others. Also, I don't think Cleveland's current braintrust makes that trade.  

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I don't have faith in the front office and especially the coaching setup to trade Rodgers away and actually after a few years improve and be a contender again. I have more faith in Aaron who has been dragging this team along for a long time.

Rodgers isn't the one ****ting the bed when this team gives up an average of 36 points in those playoff exits. And it's not about talent acquisition either and money because we have been drafting heavily on defense for a number of years now (teams around us in terms of draft position for years have been getting more out of their picks).

I extend him, and ask my front office to do a better job picking players and my coaches getting better at developing them. Whether that will happen under McCarthy, well I have my doubts I have never been as down on him as I am right now.

 

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6 hours ago, MantyWrestler said:

How are you so sure he’s the best player in the leaguin 3 years if his game falls off?

these guys sign contracts. If the team doesn’t want to renegotiate to bad. If we redo Rogers contract and next year Wentz gets extended for more money, should we redo Rogers contract? Should the Patriots redo Brady’s contract if Rogers gets more? 

At some point in most every contract, players will be over or underpaid. Teams can cut players who no longer live up and players get big money up front. That’s the trade off. 

Obviously, I'm not sure.  But I'm reasonably sure.  It's a logical guess, isn't it?  The odds are good.  Like I said, there is always a chance that his current injury will have caused a drop off, or a future injury will impair his abilities in one way or another, and injuries are a simple fact in the NFL. Right now the odds are he's the best.  If he's healthy but three years older, then who could be better?  Wentz?  Luck?  Please, no!  For the sake of the NFL, please no.  If those are the two best QBs in a pass-happy league, then the league is going to have some problems.  The new guy over in SF now?  No, it's going to be Rodgers for a while.

There will be a flurry of new QB contracts in the next few years.  People suggesting the use of franchise tags (maybe two years of tags?) two and three years down the road aren't considering how much those tags cost.  Making Rodgers a new contract right now is a financially solid decision.  What other QB in the league could you get two or three years down the road for a better deal than Rodgers?  Seriously, you're staring down the barrel of Cousins situation, but instead of being priced out of an above average QB, you're going to priced out of the running for the best QB to ever play the game when you should have had him locked up until his wheel chair freezes up one too many times.  Cousins?  That's the guy you're looking at, or Alex Smith.  That would be funny, if it wasn't a plausible situation.  But it is.  

Finally, if you keep Rodgers on the team for three more years with or without a contract, there's no way we are going to be drafting this close to the top of the order again . . . unless Kizer takes over for eight games.  Do you think we're going to get a new Rodgers again at 24?   Make the most of what we have.  You're watching something special right now.

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6 minutes ago, StinkySauce said:

Obviously, I'm not sure.  But I'm reasonably sure.  It's a logical guess, isn't it?  The odds are good.  Like I said, there is always a chance that his current injury will have caused a drop off, or a future injury will impair his abilities in one way or another, and injuries are a simple fact in the NFL. Right now the odds are he's the best.  If he's healthy but three years older, then who could be better?  Wentz?  Luck?  Please, no!  For the sake of the NFL, please no.  If those are the two best QBs in a pass-happy league, then the league is going to have some problems.  The new guy over in SF now?  No, it's going to be Rodgers for a while.

There will be a flurry of new QB contracts in the next few years.  People suggesting the use of franchise tags (maybe two years of tags?) two and three years down the road aren't considering how much those tags cost.  Making Rodgers a new contract right now is a financially solid decision.  What other QB in the league could you get two or three years down the road for a better deal than Rodgers?  Seriously, you're staring down the barrel of Cousins situation, but instead of being priced out of an above average QB, you're going to priced out of the running for the best QB to ever play the game when you should have had him locked up until his wheel chair freezes up one too many times.  Cousins?  That's the guy you're looking at, or Alex Smith.  That would be funny, if it wasn't a plausible situation.  But it is.  

Finally, if you keep Rodgers on the team for three more years with or without a contract, there's no way we are going to be drafting this close to the top of the order again . . . unless Kizer takes over for eight games.  Do you think we're going to get a new Rodgers again at 24?   Make the most of what we have.  You're watching something special tight now.

I feel like we have watched something special. I disagtthat he’s a lock to be the best in the NFL in 3-4 years without an injury. Wentz and Goeff both have looked good this year and will continue to improve. My point is you just don’t know. 

Any additional money you give Aaron is pushing more and more money down the road. I’d let him play it out and see where we are at in year 4. No need to give him huge money right now. 

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5 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

I feel like we have watched something special. I disagtthat he’s a lock to be the best in the NFL in 3-4 years without an injury. Wentz and Goeff both have looked good this year and will continue to improve. My point is you just don’t know. 

Any additional money you give Aaron is pushing more and more money down the road. I’d let him play it out and see where we are at in year 4. No need to give him huge money right now. 

I still think you guys are missing the point.  Who's the highest paid QB in the league right now?  It's the guy who just signed a contract.  The next guy to get the most lucrative contract in history won't necessarily be Rodgers.  It will simply be the next QB to sign a contract.  Any decent QB who gets a real contract next year will be the highest paid guy in history.  If you decide to wait on Rodgers and then franchise him, then that tag will be more expensive than whatever you pay him now for a contract extension.  A lot more.  Two years of tags?  That's a lot of money.  

You say your point is that you don't know Rodgers will be the best, and I'm saying that shouldn't be the point.  Here's the point: if you make Rodgers an extension now, will you be overpaying him in two or three years?  The answer is no, regardless of whether he's still the best.  Because, if you release him in three years and pay a new QB, that new QB will be making more than Rodgers would have been making if you had that contract signed now.

And who is that QB who you'll be paying more?  It won't be anyone you like right now.  Because those guys will all have contracts already.

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1 hour ago, StinkySauce said:

I still think you guys are missing the point.  Who's the highest paid QB in the league right now?  It's the guy who just signed a contract.  The next guy to get the most lucrative contract in history won't necessarily be Rodgers.  It will simply be the next QB to sign a contract.  Any decent QB who gets a real contract next year will be the highest paid guy in history.  If you decide to wait on Rodgers and then franchise him, then that tag will be more expensive than whatever you pay him now for a contract extension.  A lot more.  Two years of tags?  That's a lot of money.  

You say your point is that you don't know Rodgers will be the best, and I'm saying that shouldn't be the point.  Here's the point: if you make Rodgers an extension now, will you be overpaying him in two or three years?  The answer is no, regardless of whether he's still the best.  Because, if you release him in three years and pay a new QB, that new QB will be making more than Rodgers would have been making if you had that contract signed now.

And who is that QB who you'll be paying more?  It won't be anyone you like right now.  Because those guys will all have contracts already.

That depends on the structure of the contract and for however many years. There’s talk he wants north of 30 mil per. Question is for how many years, 2 year extension or more?

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7 hours ago, Leader said:

A general concept toward getting it done sooner rather than later is its probably going to go up over time - although - as I pointed out to much in a different thread, I think next years CAP is projected to go down - so perhaps the up arrow is starting to flatten out a bit.

 

I get what you’re saying, but and agree that we could save money over the long term. However with him being 36 at the end of this deal, 37 when the cba hits, giving him  big money is pretty risky, especially with there also being a trend towards guaranteed money. What if his body is more Romo than Brady?  If he was too expensive at 37 and wanted to play elsewhere, I’d be okay going a different direction 

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2 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

I get what you’re saying, but and agree that we could save money over the long term. However with him being 36 at the end of this deal, 37 when the cba hits, giving him  big money is pretty risky, especially with there also being a trend towards guaranteed money. What if his body is more Romo than Brady?  If he was too expensive at 37 and wanted to play elsewhere, I’d be okay going a different direction 

How about "Guaranteed except for _________________"  :)

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16 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

I get what you’re saying, but and agree that we could save money over the long term. However with him being 36 at the end of this deal, 37 when the cba hits, giving him  big money is pretty risky, especially with there also being a trend towards guaranteed money. What if his body is more Romo than Brady?  If he was too expensive at 37 and wanted to play elsewhere, I’d be okay going a different direction 

There are always risks. The risk of letting AR12 play out this contract is just as big as extending him now for a bunch of money. 

Do we want to get stuck in Washington's shoes (letting a contract run out and using a couple franchise tags) where their future is buried in a QB who hasn't been much more than average over his NFL career (a QB they had to trade a high pick for).  They are now paying a mediocre QB like he's elite.  The difference between Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers isn't worth the caliber of player they could sign for savings between the 2 contracts.   They've got mediocrity at the position now and no future to speak of. 

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21 minutes ago, SSG said:

There are always risks. The risk of letting AR12 play out this contract is just as big as extending him now for a bunch of money. 

Do we want to get stuck in Washington's shoes (letting a contract run out and using a couple franchise tags) where their future is buried in a QB who hasn't been much more than average over his NFL career (a QB they had to trade a high pick for).  They are now paying a mediocre QB like he's elite.  The difference between Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers isn't worth the caliber of player they could sign for savings between the 2 contracts.   They've got mediocrity at the position now and no future to speak of. 

I think the big difference is, AR will be 36 in 2 years when his contract is up (37 if we franchised him once). Kirk Cousins has has been 28/29 when Washington refused to give him an extension. That isn't really an apples to apples comparison. Father time always wins. Outside of Brady, pretty much every QB has fallen off a cliff at 40. Father time always wins. 

Would you rather give AR up a year early, or make him happy and potentially have 3 years of a bad guaranteed contract? I'd lean moving off him (I wouldn't be pissed if we did resign him, but it is more of a grey area dammed if you do/don't).

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I can’t believe we have fans who are even thinking about moving on from Rodgers.

No matter WHO you bring in, we will never replace what Rodgers gives us. He’s the most talented quarterback to EVER PLAY.

My word, sign the guy the whatever he wants and worry about the rest later. He’s guarantees us a playoff birth. He’s only been hurt 2x as a start and one of those years we still made the playoffs. 

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32 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

I think the big difference is, AR will be 36 in 2 years when his contract is up (37 if we franchised him once). Kirk Cousins has has been 28/29 when Washington refused to give him an extension. That isn't really an apples to apples comparison. Father time always wins. Outside of Brady, pretty much every QB has fallen off a cliff at 40. Father time always wins. 

Would you rather give AR up a year early, or make him happy and potentially have 3 years of a bad guaranteed contract? I'd lean moving off him (I wouldn't be pissed if we did resign him, but it is more of a grey area dammed if you do/don't).

I think its unrealistic to believe that AR12 is going to go from elite to bad overnight.  I'd much rather have an AR12 with slightly diminished skills for a couple years than give up an elite QB too early with no back up plan.  Elite QBs don't fall off trees and the chances of adequately replacing him quickly is substantially smaller than taking some time and having to rebuild the team.  Front offices don't' generally get over striking out at QB so you could be talking about having to replace the whole coaching staff and front office if they don't get it right.  I'd much prefer to put my money on the more sure thing and I'd rather bet on Aaron Rodgers than against.  JMO

I personally can't think of a QB who's went from Elite too terrible overnight.  Nor can I think of a team who was hamstrung with said player with a bad contrct for an extended period of time.  I don't see the Tony Romo comparison as the comparison blatantly ignores the fact that Romo played just 3 full seasons in his entire NFL career.  While AR12 has had 2 broken collar bones, he's missed only one game (concussion) in his career outside those two freak breaks.  Since he's been in the league, he's missed one more game to injury than Tom Brady and he's not getting the injury prone label some are trying to stick on AR12.

People are talking about treating AR12 like Washington treated Kirk Cousins.  I do think its an apples to apples comparison as that is the realistic caliber of replacement we could expect.  Whether the QB is elite or mediocre, its still a massive contract with major negative implications if it doesn't work out.

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14 minutes ago, Siman08/OH said:

I can’t believe we have fans who are even thinking about moving on from Rodgers.

No matter WHO you bring in, we will never replace what Rodgers gives us. He’s the most talented quarterback to EVER PLAY.

My word, sign the guy the whatever he wants and worry about the rest later. He’s guarantees us a playoff birth. He’s only been hurt 2x as a start and one of those years we still made the playoffs. 

I don't understand this thinking either.  Sure, if we decide to trade him for a boat load of picks what guarantee do we have that we'll be able to find another QB of his caliber?  He is a once in a generational talent.  Only one other team has had back to back HOF QBs in the history of this league so the chances we'll get lucky again aren't great.  We had 25 years watching mostly crappy QB play (other than probably Dickey) before Wolf got Favre.  I'm in no hurry to suffer thru that again.  Gutey would be a damn fool to even entertain this nonsensical idea.

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17 minutes ago, Siman08/OH said:

I can’t believe we have fans who are even thinking about moving on from Rodgers.

No matter WHO you bring in, we will never replace what Rodgers gives us. He’s the most talented quarterback to EVER PLAY.

My word, sign the guy the whatever he wants and worry about the rest later. He’s guarantees us a playoff birth. He’s only been hurt 2x as a start and one of those years we still made the playoffs. 

I agree.  Shows just how spoiled Packer fans have been.  Some realistically believe that elite QBs the caliber of AR12 and Brett Favre will just fall off a tree once we move on and the chances are extraordinary that that will not happen.  You are very likely talking about a complete rebuild when AR12's tenure is up.   Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers or Payton Manning to Andre Luck or Joe Montana to Steve Young transitions aren't all that common. 

Is there a team that has had 3 HOF or Great QBs back, to back to back?  I can't name one.....

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4 minutes ago, SSG said:

I agree.  Shows just how spoiled Packer fans have been.  Some realistically believe that elite QBs the caliber of AR12 and Brett Favre will just fall off a tree once we move on and the chances are extraordinary that that will not happen.  You are very likely talking about a complete rebuild when AR12's tenure is up.   Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers or Payton Manning to Andre Luck or Joe Montana to Steve Young transitions aren't all that common. 

Is there a team that has had 3 HOF or Great QBs back, to back to back?  I can't name one.....

It definitely makes me worry about what comes after AR. I plan on enjoying the next few years. Might not see another great QB in GB for a long while afterwards. 

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