LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 This has been touched on a bunch in other threads but I figured I’d make a thread and dedicate to the position. First off, and I want to get this out of the way early, I really like Saquon Barkley as a prospect. He’s as good as you hope to find at the position in any given year, a 10/10 running back prospect. Now that I have that out of the way, I hope like hell we don’t take him at 1 or 4, and I’ll tell you why. 1. Positional value. I’m a big believer in positional value and running back is not a position that has a lot of value comparatively. I’d argue that QB, WR, LT, DE, and CB are definitely more valuable. I’d also rather have an elite 3 down LB, TE, and SS than an elite RB if forced to choose. I don’t worry about RB and until those are locked up long term. 2. Typical career length. It’s short, bottom line most RB’s, even deserving ones, are almost begging for a long term second contract like you see know with LeVeon Bell. By their late 20’s most people view RB’s as done. It as probably (just guessing) the shortest average career length for any position (assuming a successful player obviously) in the game. What does this mean? Less potential ROI. 3. I prefer a strong “stable of backs” to one “workhorse”. Give me a RB room with 3 guys who all have good skill sets and well rounded games over one star any day. More versatility, more depth, less impact if an injury happens, etc. 4. The ability to find talent all throughout the draft. Some will say that you can do this with every position, and while that’s true, I think RB is far and away the easiest position to find elite talent/production later in the draft, especially rounds 2 and 3. Hunt and Kamara last year, who outperformed another “best since AP” prospect in Fournette, are great examples of this. 5. Minimal impact on winning. This is a pass first game nowadays, no other way to put it. The old sayings like “run run the ball to set up the pass” have been reversed. The teams who win, or at least the teams that have won, over the last 15 years or so are almost exclusively based around great QB play and/or great defenses. Teams don’t ride their running backs to a title any longer. Tomlinson, Peterson, Sanders, etc are all some of the greatest to ever play the game over the last couple decades but didn’t win titles. The best QB’s over that period? Manning, Manning, Brady, Ben Brees... well, you get the point. Best defenses? Baltimore, Pitt, NE, Seattle... again, you get the point. So, if we are to pass on Barkley what are our options? Well, luckily this is one of the deepest RB classes I’ve ever seen. I think you can get 90% of the player Barkley is (maybe more, who know?) with guys like Guice, Jones, Penny, Michel, etc., some of which are going to be available at the top of the second round. Plenty of other guys like Walton, Scarbrough, Chubb, etc that also have NFL skill sets will be available later as well. As far as picking running backs, there’s no reason the couldn’t take a RB at both 33 and 35 and really lock down the position. Imagine being able to have, for example, both Michel and Penny to throw at defenses along with Duke next year? Still significantly less of an investment than Barkley would be at 4. So have at it Barkley fanboi’s.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWil23 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 As long as we draft Sam Darnold at #1, we can let any poster here draft whomever they want at #4 for all I care. Just freaking get the right QB guys. That said, I understand what you're saying and I tend to agree with you, but at the same time, unless we're drafting an AWESOME DB at #4, I don't see anyone else truly deserving of that pick aside from Barkley. This is the weakest WR class I've seen in a while, and the same goes for OT and TE (although I like Gesicki from PSU and Andrews isn't bad). To me, it boils down to this: *If you could 100% guarantee me that we got a stud DB at #4 and Guice would still be there at 33, then by all means do that. *If you could 100% guarantee me that there is an interested buyer for pick #4 and we're getting at least a 100% return value on that trade (See: Buffalo w/ Watkins a few years ago. DO NOT See: The Falcons for Julio a few years ago), then by all means do that. *If there isn't a quality buyer and Fitzpatrick is gone and we already have our Franchise QBOTF (We had better do that with #1), then draft the best player in the draft. If that's Barkley, so be it. We'd get him for 5 years on a tiered rookie deal and have the option of Franchise Tagging him for a 6th year/7th year at a contract projected to be less than what we've paid guys like Kenny Britt to come in here and lay a complete egg. After 7 years when we've used him up (I feel guilty saying that, but it's a business), then let him go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pnies20 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Best play in the draft, end of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztec Hammer Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm not all the way there with you but I understand your reasoning and agree with a lot of it. And that's why I'm totally okay with Barkley not being there at 4, or trading away the pick even if he is. Especially when you consider trading that 4, you might even be able to drop back a couple slots and grab a 2019 1st from a team that will play a rookie QB. If I could promise you that, I'm not sure anyone of sane mind would take Barkley over that. QB is all that matters to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, pnies20 said: Best play in the draft, end of story. lol ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 So, options for 4 other than Barkley, imo. 1. Minkah, if they believe he is an elite CB. Similar debate as with Ramsey two years ago. 2. Nelson, if they believe he can play LT. I think he may be a Bruce Matthews/Larry Allen type player who has Pro Bowl ability really anywhere along the line. His tape is every bit as good as what folks think Barkley’s is. 3. Trade down. My personal favorite. Move back a spot or two so that a team can snag their QB and still likely have the ability to grab one of the top 3-4 non-QB’s in the draft while building our draft capital for 2019. 4. Chubb. He looks the part on tape, and his combine numbers were better then expected. If you believe in building on a strength, he’s probably in the mix for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheeRealDeal Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I have been on Nelson's bandwagon longer than anyone. I was against Ronnie Stanley because of Quenton Nelson as a super sophomore. He is hands down the single best guard I have ever seen and I have been an arm chair hobby scout since the 1996 draft. With that said the things that make him great are his powerful hands, powerful hips. domination at the point of attack and nasty killer instinct. He doesn't really have a weakness as a guard, but if he were put on the edge his weakness would quickly become his feet. He doesn't have quick burst of agility and he doesn't exactly float gracefully. I don't see him being much of a success at LT. He is far more valuable at guard where he would stone wall any interior pas rush and get movement in your run game with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, TheeRealDeal said: I have been on Nelson's bandwagon longer than anyone. I was against Ronnie Stanley because of Quenton Nelson as a super sophomore. He is hands down the single best guard I have ever seen and I have been an arm chair hobby scout since the 1996 draft. With that said the things that make him great are his powerful hands, powerful hips. domination at the point of attack and nasty killer instinct. He doesn't really have a weakness as a guard, but if he were put on the edge his weakness would quickly become his feet. He doesn't have quick burst of agility and he doesn't exactly float gracefully. I don't see him being much of a success at LT. He is far more valuable at guard where he would stone wall any interior pas rush and get movement in your run game with ease. He’s definitely not going to be Joe T in the pass game, but he could be quite good in pass pro and absolutely dominant in the run game. He and Bitonio on the left side would absolutely punish teams. I think Thomas has spoiled us to some degree on what to expect from a LT’s feet. Larry Allen was another guy who was dominant at guard and didn’t have prototypical NFL LT feet, but the dude could play. From what I’ve seen of Nelson, and maybe I need to watch more, that dude has kicked everyone’s *** he’s faced. Thoroughly. I just get the sense he’s “that guy” who can so it anywhere across the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheeRealDeal Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 He can certainly have success at LT in short term but he won't be able to do it long term and even then It would all depend on game flow and play calling. Larry Allen actually only played LT one season and in that season his team ran the ball 499 times for 2014 yard and 21 touchdowns which was the 6th most rush attempts in the league that year. In today's league we see 1-3 teams rushing that much. This year it was Jacksonville and Minnesota. I don't see Hue Jackson or even Todd Haley committing to the run that heavily. I still believe Mike McGlinchey is extremely underrated because of the Nelson hype. If we wanted a LT I would much prefer a trade down into the late Top 10 to get McGlinchey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aztec Hammer Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm not as down on the benefit of special Guard play as some. Nelson would stem all interior pressure on his part and blow open run lanes. He's a one-man wrecking crew and basically has the ability to be 75% of a team's run game. Imagine the benefit it would give to Darnold to not have to worry about inside pressure. He's already a monster at evading outside pressure with first step blitz avoidance moves. Keep the inside clean and he could do damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSURacerDT55 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 We are making this harder than what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said: We are making this harder than what it is How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSURacerDT55 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: How so? Just take our guy at QB and move on, don't get cute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheeRealDeal Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, MSURacerDT55 said: Just take our guy at QB and move on, don't get cute Because we only have 1 pick in the entire draft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, MSURacerDT55 said: Just take our guy at QB and move on, don't get cute We’re mostly talking at 4. We’re assuming QB is already taken care of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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