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Running Backs, Positional Value, And The 2018 Prospects


LETSGOBROWNIES

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3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

That's also assuming that we don't get our doors blown off with an offer at #4. I still don't want to trade back past the 7-10 range, because I'd love Denzel Ward as a CB, or someone who is an elite prospect like him.

5-10 via a trade back has by nether regions tingling.

Asssuming 3 QB’s go top 4, Chubb, Barkley, Minkah, Ward, Vea, Edmunds, Nelson....

 

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37 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

So what happens when you have 2 or three guys who are “that good”?

What’s the tiebreaker? What separates him from Chubb, Nelson, Minkah, etc?

I get positional value and all but elite RB prospect still trumps elite OG prospect all day long. I am personally not a huge fan of Minkah and what he brings to the table. You can justify that one going either way. I think you can justify Chubb over Barkley but Barkley over Chubb as well. To me the real elite guys we would be missing out on at more premium positions are Tremaine Edmunds, Denzel Ward and Derwin James probably in that order.

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6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

5-10 via a trade back has by nether regions tingling.

Asssuming 3 QB’s go top 4, Chubb, Barkley, Minkah, Ward, Vea, Edmunds, Nelson....

 

We'll know how valuable Pick #4 is only when we're on the clock. That's why I want to wait until we're on the clock if we're going to TRADE it, not before-hand. We'll find out VERY fast how valuable those QBs are. If 3 QB's go in the Top 4 picks, then we could have 1 of about 3 guys I'd love to have at #6 (Barkley, Chubb (even though he's not my preference), Fitzpatrick, Ward).

Vea looks like a stud, but I like Ogunjobi and Shelton/Brantley. Adding him would be fine though.

Edmunds for me is a hard pass due to the other 3 LB's we have, unless we trade one.

Nelson, if he or Bitonio could be the perfect LT, I'd settle for, but that's hard to do on a roster that's 0-16 and already a position of strength.

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2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

We'll know how valuable Pick #4 is only when we're on the clock. That's why I want to wait until we're on the clock if we're going to TRADE it, not before-hand. We'll find out VERY fast how valuable those QBs are. If 3 QB's go in the Top 4 picks, then we could have 1 of about 3 guys I'd love to have at #6 (Barkley, Chubb (even though he's not my preference), Fitzpatrick, Ward).

Agreed.

2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Vea looks like a stud, but I like Ogunjobi and Shelton/Brantley. Adding him would be fine though.

I like those guys as well, but Vea is Ngata 2.0 to me. I’ve liked him for a while.

2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Edmunds for me is a hard pass due to the other 3 LB's we have, unless we trade one.

I get your point, but Collins is 9 years older than Edmonds and could be a 12-15 year player with physical traits every bit as elite as Collins. I like Schobert and Kirksey too, but neither is the difference make Edmunds is.

2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Nelson, if he or Bitonio could be the perfect LT, I'd settle for, but that's hard to do on a roster that's 0-16 and already a position of strength.

Agreed, we have little in the way of need there, but I’m not against an elite G either if we trade down from 4.  Zeitler has played C previously and that OL starts to rival Dallas and the best in the league imo.

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Tremaine Edmunds can be an elite chess piece for an NFL defense. He is not even fully physically developed even in terms of college prospect. Very rarely do you see prospects with the upside of Edmunds and I wouldn't let Collins, Kirksey or Schobert stop me from drafting him. We could find a way to trade one of those guys and get decent value in return.

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Just now, TheeRealDeal said:

Tremaine Edmunds can be an elite chess piece for an NFL defense. He is not even fully physically developed even in terms of college prospect. Very rarely do you see prospects with the upside of Edmunds and I wouldn't let Collins, Kirksey or Schobert stop me from drafting him. We could find a way to trade one of those guys and get decent value in return.

Yaaaaasssss!

Dude’s gonna be an absolute monster in a couple years when he finally gets his man body.

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4 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I guess my point is I like a number of guys in the top 10 when you pair them with some 2019 picks.

I don’t love as many when I’m required to push all my chips to the middle of the table and go all in on one of them.

Correct, but I'd rather put all my chips in the center on one "blue chip" prospect than I would by trading back this year outside of that "elite" range and get a few future picks that aren't overly high.

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4 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I guess my point is I like a number of guys in the top 10 when you pair them with some 2019 picks.

I don’t love as many when I’m required to push all my chips to the middle of the table and go all in on one of them.

I wish we had 5 Top 10 picks this year.

I don't absolutely love the idea of trading down for 2nd round picks this year like a normally do because the 20-45 range is not nearly as good as normal. I would trade down for 2019 picks if the deal is right and I don't love the guy who is on the board at 4.

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4 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Correct, but I'd rather put all my chips in the center on one "blue chip" prospect than I would by trading back this year outside of that "elite" range and get a few future picks that aren't overly high.

Where does that “elite” range end though?

I think when you combine tape and athleticism there are more than 2-3 elite non-QB’s.

I’d argue all of the guys I listed above could be considered “elite” prospects for their position.

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Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Where does that “elite” range end though?

I think when you combine tape and athleticism there are more than 2-3 elite non-QB’s.

I’d argue all of the guys I listed above could be considered “elite” prospects for their position.

In the scenario where 3 QB's go in the Top 4, I think personally to me it ends after the Pick #8 range, where you're missing out on Chubb, Barkley, Ward, Fitzpatrick, and Nelson.

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Where does the elite range end someone asked? Well it all depends on where the QBs go because lets face it there are some good QB prospect this year but none of the 5 guys are elite and if you take positional value out of it I would rank them as follows;

1. Saquan Barkley
2. Quenton Nelson
3. Tremaine Edmunds
4. Derwin James
5. Denzel Ward
6. Bradley Chubb
7. Baker Mayfield
8. Sam Darnold
9. Minkah Fitzpatrik
10. Vita Vea

-Slight fall off-

11. Mike McGlinchey
12. Joshua Jackson
13. Marcus Davenport
14. Roquan Smith

-Huge fall off-

Obviously I would say we absolutely have to stay in the Top 13 picks(Wouldn't want to risk BPA on board at 14 being Roquan Smith who is good but not good enough for me to add to our LB core). If we want truly elite I would say pick 7 is where I would fall back to because we are taking a QB at #1 pushing one of the Top 6 guys back to #7 and then if more QBs go the further down I would be more comfortable moving.

Those 14 are actually the only 14 guys I believe are truly 1st round talents.

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2 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

In the scenario where 3 QB's go in the Top 4, I think personally to me it ends after the Pick #8 range, where you're missing out on Chubb, Barkley, Ward, Fitzpatrick, and Nelson.

If it’s a QB the team is moving up for, the likeliest teams would be Den (5), NYJ (6), AZ (15) and BUF (21,22) with MIA (11) and CIN (12) as dark horse options.

Denver and NYJ would be great options as we’d have almost identical options.

Buffalo could put together a heck of a package, but it would require a 1st next year as well.  3 firsts?!?!?  Some will love that, some won’t.

Cincinnati is going to have to pay a premuim as they’re in the division. Not sure I’d help them out tbh....

Miami could be a good option, but it would take a first next year and maybe a bit more.

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10 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

In the scenario where 3 QB's go in the Top 4, I think personally to me it ends after the Pick #8 range, where you're missing out on Chubb, Barkley, Ward, Fitzpatrick, and Nelson.

If that is your scenario I'm happy falling to #10 and taking Tremaine Edmunds or Derwin James and laughing my *** off 9 other GMs just let that nonsense happen.

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