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VanS

Why is Equanimeous St. Brown NOT a consensus 1st round pick?

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I didn't like his tape. Not physical enough at the catch point and isn't much of a high pointer. Being tall with a good frame isn't much of a positive if you don't use it. Hands are inconsistent, doesn't solidly secure the ball the way you want. He uses good head fakes but I wasn't a fan overall of his route running. He's best used on vertical routes that stress safeties, that won't be as effective in the NFL where the safeties are actually good more often than not. His production will probably be very inconsistent if he can't learn to win underneath. He isn't a bad athlete but he doesn't look like a great athlete either. His speed is useful after the catch but overall he isn't much of a YAC guy, doesn't really have moves to make guys miss and he's easy to tackle. 

I think he's a punt gunner day 1 with the potential to develop into Malcom Floyd in a few years. If he can show he's a great athlete at his pro day then he's punt gunner with the potential to develop into Tyrell Williams in a few years. But that development isn't guaranteed. I'd happily take him in the 5th round.

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4 minutes ago, CalhounLambeau said:

Competitiveness feels optional for him at times. Needs to play with more consistent urgency. Struggles with physical cornerbacks. Crowded and harassed by North Carolina's M.J. Stewart and finished with just one catch. Routes and stems are rounded. Needs to do better at disguising route breaks. Doesn't create as much downfield separation as he could with better route leverage. Doesn't extend to pluck and allows throws to get into him. Hand strength is below average. Has catches that turn into drops due to lack of hand strength through contact. Body positioning and ball adjustments down the field are just OK.

- Lance Zierlein

Might be the first time I 100% agree with Lance Zierlein.

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12 hours ago, VanS said:

After the combine, I have Antonio Callaway as my WR1 and Equanimeous St. Brown as my WR2.

Putting way too much stock in the combine. If ESB moved to WR2 for you because of a workout, then you're going to be disappointed.  Go watch them play.

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He’s in that bunch of day two level receiver prospects that seems to be growing by the day. Some teams are getting bargains on those guys, some are getting busts. He’s just a little more enigmatic than some others in that crop, so I’d happily take a receiver with a lower ceiling that I have a better feel for. You don’t spend 1st rounds picks on players like St. Brown where other options are available.

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His speed and RAC ability are becoming undervalued on here IMO. He's at his best catching shallow crosses/digs against zones and turning on the jets up field. He understands how to beat up zone coverage and find green grass, but NFL CB's are going to get right up in his grill and take that away. He's going to have to learn how to beat man coverage and be more physical off the line if he wants to be a big-boy WR. He looks lost/disinterested when DB's press up on him.

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33 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

He's at his best catching shallow crosses/digs against zones and turning on the jets up field.

That's not a good thing. 

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1 minute ago, IDOG_det said:

That's not a good thing. 

No it isn't, but I disagree with you about his RAC ability. When he has the football in his hands he's tough to bring down. He does a great job of catching and immediately transitioning into a runner. Is he a gangly runner that's going to get popped in the NFL? Yeah, but he's got speed to run away from almost all safeties and does actually run hard. I've seen him stiff arm dudes to the ground en route to the endzone. He's a better RAC guy than you're giving him credit for, but I don't think he'll create enough separation against man coverage in the NFL to get as many RAC opportunities.

And I definitely agree with you about his lack of physicality/interest on a regular basis. He plays like he's 5'10, not 6'4. He doesn't do well when turning back to the QB (comeback/curl/jump balls). He's a strange prospect because the ht/wt/spd would tell you he's one thing but his actual tape shows something completely different. I don't understand why he's so perplexed by smaller players pressing him. Too easily frustrated and when he's frustrated he shuts down.

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1 minute ago, BleedTheClock said:

he's tough to bring down

You sure? Way too many times I saw him easily get tackled by the ankles. His balance is like anti-Kareem Hunt levels. YAC to me is about having moves in the open field, being able to make guys miss, being able to run guys over, etc. I want to see them create something. Being fast doesn't really count because that gap gets smaller in the NFL and if someone has the angle on him then you know he's going to be tackled.

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5 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

You sure? Way too many times I saw him easily get tackled by the ankles. His balance is like anti-Kareem Hunt levels. YAC to me is about having moves in the open field, being able to make guys miss, being able to run guys over, etc. I want to see them create something. Being fast doesn't really count because that gap gets smaller in the NFL and if someone has the angle on him then you know he's going to be tackled.

He's tough to bring down when he's got a full head of steam. On a lot of those crossers he's running so fast that it's a nightmare for defenders to catch him and deal with a stiff arm. If he doesn't have 5-10 yards of space to build up that speed, yeah he gets tackled easily and shoved into the stands. But I think if you can utilize him underneath against zones and teach him how to properly use the "rub" technique vs. man concepts, he would be a nightmare to catch/bring down. He doesn't have great balance. I should have worded "he's a nightmare when he's got a full head of steam because he's difficult to catch." He doesn't really throw dudes off of him with the stiff arm...it's more of a jab to keep the defender off his legs. It's effective, but won't be in close quarters.

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9 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Calvin Ridley. I know you don't like him, but he runs elite routes, gets vertical, catches the football consistently, and did so with a used tampon at QB.

I also don't like Courtland Sutton. Another dude that's big and fast but doesn't play all that big and isn't quick. Sutton's route running is pretty bad and he rarely separates from DB's. He's basically Stephen Hill but not nearly as fast. Or a faster straight line Dwayne Jarrett.

 

Anthony Miller is my #2 WR and I wouldn't take him in the 1st round. He's in the 20's in my rankings, but it bothers me that he isn't overly fast or overly big. He doesn't really have #1 WR potential.

DJ Chark is interesting to me. He had the worst QB of all. Pretty sure Danny Etling wouldn't start on 3/4 of high school teams. He's an abomination. Side note: Why was this tool invited to the combine? Back to Chark, he's also too unproductive to get taken in the 1st round. A lot of the same issues St. Brown has, except he plays much faster than Brown does. He looks 4.3 fast. Brown doesn't look fast on tape unless he's given the free lane to build that speed up. He's not short area fast like Chark is.

Did Ridley's lack of explosiveness at the combine concern you?  His vertical and broad jump numbers were quite poor.  I always get concerned with athletes who run fast 40s but then perform poorly in the vertical and broad jump.

I like Anthony Miller as well.  But like you the speed and size are concerning.  You can't always count on guys being an exception like Antonio Brown.

I've seen a lot of DJ Chark.  He's more of an athlete than football player.  The Martavis Bryant comparisons in terms of NFL impact are probably accurate.  He'll be better than he was at LSU but I don't see him becoming a great NFL player.  I could see him developing into a deep threat like Bryant and probably nothing else.

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5 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Putting way too much stock in the combine. If ESB moved to WR2 for you because of a workout, then you're going to be disappointed.  Go watch them play.

No.  He was #2 before the combine.  He just solidified his position as he ran better than I expected. 

Before the combine I liked him about the same as Michael Gallup, DJ Moore, and Anthony Miller.  They were my #2-#5 WRs in this draft.

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1 minute ago, VanS said:

Did Ridley's lack of explosiveness at the combine concern you? 

Not really. It was kind of shocking he didn't time faster, but ultimately he's getting open and making big plays against very good defenses. He looks fast compared to other fast guys. Ultimately his tape shows that the combine was an anomaly. Plus he's got really loose hips and snaps his routes as well as anyone. Fluid mover.

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6 hours ago, CalhounLambeau said:

Competitiveness feels optional for him at times. Needs to play with more consistent urgency. Struggles with physical cornerbacks. Crowded and harassed by North Carolina's M.J. Stewart and finished with just one catch. Routes and stems are rounded. Needs to do better at disguising route breaks. Doesn't create as much downfield separation as he could with better route leverage. Doesn't extend to pluck and allows throws to get into him. Hand strength is below average. Has catches that turn into drops due to lack of hand strength through contact. Body positioning and ball adjustments down the field are just OK.

- Lance Zierlein

Pretty much.  Teams learned their lesson from Jonathan Baldwin (while Brown is faster than Baldwin was, his hands are visibly less consistent and he doesn't high-point the ball at all like Baldwin did, but he takes plays off, lacks wiggle in his YAC attempts, and struggles to gain separation similarly).

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3 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Not really. It was kind of shocking he didn't time faster, but ultimately he's getting open and making big plays against very good defenses. He looks fast compared to other fast guys. Ultimately his tape shows that the combine was an anomaly. Plus he's got really loose hips and snaps his routes as well as anyone. Fluid mover.

It is quite obvious, that this WR class lacks a stud. Ridley was disappointing at the Combine by his own admission, see Alabama's pro day for his comments. He is still a first rounder, but no longer in the top 15 discussion. 

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