Why is Equanimeous St. Brown NOT a consensus 1st round pick?

[Iamcanadian]

21 hours ago, VanS said:

6'5" 215 lbs. 4.4 speed.  Great production in 2016 when he had a QB that could pass.  I just don't see what there isn't there to like.  He's tall.  He's fast.  He can catch.  He's been productive.

How is this guy not a first round pick in all the mock drafts?  And how are guys with less physical tools projected to go higher than him?

After the combine, I have Antonio Callaway as my WR1 and Equanimeous St. Brown as my WR2.  And I don't see that top 2 changing. 

Well, Calloway will be lucky to see round 3 with all the off the field red flags he is carrying. It will be like drafting Gordon of the Browns again.

As for Brown, he has a lot of talent, but I do not see a wow factor. Should be a possible #2, but he will not be a star. I just do not see a lot of toughness in his play, although he definitely suffered by lack of a decent QB at Notre Dame.

It is just not a very solid WR crop as far as top end talent is concerned.

A case in point, neither made Jeremiah's top 50 post Combine and that speaks volumes about their talent level. 

[The OUTLAW]

Deep class and he's been hit hard because of his decline in production.  Doesn't seem fair to me, but I think that's the reason. 

 

[VanS]

On 3/7/2018 at 5:20 PM, Iamcanadian said:

It is quite obvious, that this WR class lacks a stud. Ridley was disappointing at the Combine by his own admission, see Alabama's pro day for his comments. He is still a first rounder, but no longer in the top 15 discussion. 

No.  This class does have a stud.  Antonio Callaway.  But I expect folks to pretend like his off-field issues are the only reason he didn't go in the top 5 a few years from now when he's ripping apart the NFL. 

Antonio Callaway is a top 5 WR prospect since 2007.

[Heinz D.]

15 minutes ago, VanS said:

 But I expect folks to pretend like his off-field issues are the only reason he didn't go in the top 5 a few years from now when he's ripping apart the NFL. 

Antonio Callaway is a top 5 WR prospect since 2007.

I'm confused by both of these statements.

Elaborate? 

[Iamcanadian]

On 3/6/2018 at 10:36 PM, VanS said:

Oh I'm sure Antonio Callaway will not be a 1st round pick.  As of now, he probably won't be a Day 2 pick either.  All I was saying is he's my top ranked WR in this class because I feel he is the most talented WR in this class (by a wide margin).  The off-field issues are a concern but I don't think he's a bad kid.  I think he's a kid who has made some mistakes.  Because of his immense talent, I would take a chance on him because I know if he can stay out of trouble, I'll be getting a top 3 WR in the NFL for the next decade.

Why not just trade for Josh Gordon and hope he reforms, he is what he is and good teams do not waste their time praying for a miracle!!!

Calloway will be a cancer in whatever team drafts him and I agree, he is an immense talent, but like Gordon, no team will ever be able to count on him, a shame really, just as it is a shame Gordon is just a washout.

[VanS]

3 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

I'm confused by both of these statements.

Elaborate? 

After guys blow up in the NFL most people like to pretend they were high on them all along.  We saw that last year with Deshaun Watson.  I'm simply forecasting that in 2-3 years when Antonio Callaway is an All-Pro wide receiver, I expect most people on here to pretend they knew he had that ability all along but only his off-field issues kept him from being more highly though of.   When the reality is that even if Antonio Callaway had no off-field issues, I doubt many would have him rated as the #1 WR in this class. 

Since 2007, I would rate Antonio Callaway as one of the 5 best WR prospect I've seen alongside AJ Green, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., and Corey Davis.  I think his talent level is crazy.  He's got sublime route running, an insane feel for how to get open, great hands, great speed, and has abused great DBs like Minkah Fitzpatrick when they've matched up.  He's the 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft class IMO (only Saquon Barkley is clearly better).  I've been flip-flopping between Callaway and Derwin James as to who should be #2 and who should be #3. 

[VanS]

1 hour ago, Iamcanadian said:

Why not just trade for Josh Gordon and hope he reforms, he is what he is and good teams do not waste their time praying for a miracle!!!

Calloway will be a cancer in whatever team drafts him and I agree, he is an immense talent, but like Gordon, no team will ever be able to count on him, a shame really, just as it is a shame Gordon is just a washout.

Gordon has proven he has a dependability issue with marijuana.  Callaway has no repeated track record with a single issue.  He's simply made some bad choices.  The most serious having to deal with a lack of money.  The credit card scam was because he's a broke college kid.  Once he's in the NFL, I doubt he will need to resort to stealing to make money.

 

[Tugboat]

6 hours ago, VanS said:

No.  This class does have a stud.  Antonio Callaway.  But I expect folks to pretend like his off-field issues are the only reason he didn't go in the top 5 a few years from now when he's ripping apart the NFL. 

Antonio Callaway is a top 5 WR prospect since 2007.

If Callaway is ripping up the NFL, and proving that he's a reliable player on and off the field, yeah...i think a lot of people will simply point back to his significant off-field red flags as the reason he didn't go high in the draft.

Very few people seem to be doubting Callaway's physical talent and "upside".  It's the off field/character red flags that make him a seriously risky prospect that many people wouldn't want to stake a high 1st round pick investment on.

[Heinz D.]

11 hours ago, VanS said:

After guys blow up in the NFL most people like to pretend they were high on them all along.  We saw that last year with Deshaun Watson.  I'm simply forecasting that in 2-3 years when Antonio Callaway is an All-Pro wide receiver, I expect most people on here to pretend they knew he had that ability all along but only his off-field issues kept him from being more highly though of.   When the reality is that even if Antonio Callaway had no off-field issues, I doubt many would have him rated as the #1 WR in this class. 

Since 2007, I would rate Antonio Callaway as one of the 5 best WR prospect I've seen alongside AJ Green, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., and Corey Davis.  I think his talent level is crazy.  He's got sublime route running, an insane feel for how to get open, great hands, great speed, and has abused great DBs like Minkah Fitzpatrick when they've matched up.  He's the 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft class IMO (only Saquon Barkley is clearly better).  I've been flip-flopping between Callaway and Derwin James as to who should be #2 and who should be #3. 

Cool. Gotcha. Thanks...

And as to what I bolded there, yeah, that does tend to go on quite a bit. 

[Iamcanadian]

13 hours ago, VanS said:

After guys blow up in the NFL most people like to pretend they were high on them all along.  We saw that last year with Deshaun Watson.  I'm simply forecasting that in 2-3 years when Antonio Callaway is an All-Pro wide receiver, I expect most people on here to pretend they knew he had that ability all along but only his off-field issues kept him from being more highly though of.   When the reality is that even if Antonio Callaway had no off-field issues, I doubt many would have him rated as the #1 WR in this class. 

Since 2007, I would rate Antonio Callaway as one of the 5 best WR prospect I've seen alongside AJ Green, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., and Corey Davis.  I think his talent level is crazy.  He's got sublime route running, an insane feel for how to get open, great hands, great speed, and has abused great DBs like Minkah Fitzpatrick when they've matched up.  He's the 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft class IMO (only Saquon Barkley is clearly better).  I've been flip-flopping between Callaway and Derwin James as to who should be #2 and who should be #3. 

Now, you are getting ridiculous, Calloway is a talent, probably a late 1st rounder or an early 2nd rounder, but he is no Green, Jones, Beckham or Davis, not even close. and IMO, in 2-3 years, he is far more likely to be in prison than be a top WR in the NFL. 

He is not the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in this draft even before his troubles overtook him, he was just a decent WR prospect around 3rd in his WR group. Please stop with the ridiculous exaggerations, unless you are Calloway yourself, that might explain your getting carried away!!!!

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, VanS said:

After guys blow up in the NFL most people like to pretend they were high on them all along.  We saw that last year with Deshaun Watson.  I'm simply forecasting that in 2-3 years when Antonio Callaway is an All-Pro wide receiver, I expect most people on here to pretend they knew he had that ability all along but only his off-field issues kept him from being more highly though of.   When the reality is that even if Antonio Callaway had no off-field issues, I doubt many would have him rated as the #1 WR in this class. 

Since 2007, I would rate Antonio Callaway as one of the 5 best WR prospect I've seen alongside AJ Green, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., and Corey Davis.  I think his talent level is crazy.  He's got sublime route running, an insane feel for how to get open, great hands, great speed, and has abused great DBs like Minkah Fitzpatrick when they've matched up.  He's the 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft class IMO (only Saquon Barkley is clearly better).  I've been flip-flopping between Callaway and Derwin James as to who should be #2 and who should be #3. 

Well, I'd count Calloway as the top WR in this draft if it were just about talent, I don't have him as a top 3 overall guy this year, or a top 5 WR overall from past draft classes included, but he'd go in the top 20 overall in this draft IMO if it were just about talent.    And I'd say that I'm not even close to alone in counting him as the most talented WR....if that's the only Q.

But the off-the-field risks aren't at all benign - they are major, nuclear-level flags.   Let's recap what is known, not he-said/they-said.

1.  The sex assault case - yes he was acquitted...by the UF review, conducted by a long-time UF booster.    Still, that's not what gives me pause (it concerns me, but it's not factual or conclusive) - it's his defense - he was too stoned to be interested in sex.  That's on the record as his defense.    At the very least, he should have learned that maybe he can't get that stoned, or maybe...just maybe...stay off the weed if it's going to get you in that much trouble.  

2.  But then, he gets arrested for weed the next spring in 2016 after the whole business with the case.   By itself, I could care less - I think the NFL's policy on weed is stupid and outdated.  But the context here is massive.  He just got out of a major event, and he admitted that his drug use got him in a really bad situation at best - and then he gets caught again, when it's a violation of team rules.   

3.  Finally, the fraud arrest - which you say say is just because he's poor, so that's likely not going to be a problem later on.   The facts - he used a stolen CC to buy himself a MacBook.   This isn't stealing to put bread on the table.    It was premeditated, known.   But let's put that aside for a second.   The fact is, he committed knowing that he was on his last chance with Mcilwain, who said as much before.   It speaks to a complete lack of accountability, or any insight that maybe you need to change your behavior.  It's also incredibly stupid (no one will figure this out, right?).  

That sequence isn't a flag - it's a nuclear Defcon-1 level of risk.   The facts say there's a guy who didn't stop doing what was a threat to his ability to play.  It's hard not to ask if he understands about being accountable.   THAT is why he's falling down the WR list, and I totally get it.   One mistake, even a horrible one, you're 18 and male, that's possible all there is.  A 2nd time....hmm, ok, maybe he's learned.  A 3rd time, and for that decision?   Enough with the excuses, people.

And for the record - I love taking value picks for off-the-field risks...especially when they are rather nebulous.  Give me Josh Rosen every day of the week, I wouldn't shy away from him - he's getting dinged for being honest, and by the way, has done this in the offseason, not before games (because, team comes first).  I loved the idea taking Caleb Brantley Day 3, like CLE did, given the facts present at that time.   I'll own backing Reuben Foster and Gareon Conley staying in Rd 1 even now, given the facts known then (although Foster dude, smarten up, Conley was just a bad break with the shin splints).   So I'd say I am willing to take risks in my evaluations.   But the facts here with Calloway are truly worth of giving teams pause. I wouldn't touch him until Day 3 - and I believe he's the top WR talent-wise in this class.   The risk is THAT bad.   And if I feel that way....

Anyways, this is the ESB thread, so enough...back to regularly scheduled programming.

[VanS]

4 hours ago, Iamcanadian said:

Now, you are getting ridiculous, Calloway is a talent, probably a late 1st rounder or an early 2nd rounder, but he is no Green, Jones, Beckham or Davis, not even close. and IMO, in 2-3 years, he is far more likely to be in prison than be a top WR in the NFL. 

He is not the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in this draft even before his troubles overtook him, he was just a decent WR prospect around 3rd in his WR group. Please stop with the ridiculous exaggerations, unless you are Calloway yourself, that might explain your getting carried away!!!!

Why not?  If I said before the 2010 NFL Draft that Antonio Brown was the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in the draft, you would have said the same thing.  Now 8 years later, he's a future Hall of Famer and arguably the best player from that draft even though he went in the 6th round.  I'm not interested in just parroting what the consensus says.  I don't care if no one else believes Antonio Callaway would be a top 3 player in this class even with the off-field issues.  I based my opinions on prospects solely on what I've seen watching them play and not what the hype around them is.   With regard to Antonio Callaway, I see a guy with perennial All-Pro ability.  He jumped off the screen at me every time I watched him play at Florida.  As a wide receiver he exhibits sublime route running and instincts similar to Antonio Brown.  He's quick in and out of his breaks.  His hands are superb.  Practically the only elite attribute he lacks is size.  He does everything else required for a wide receiver at a high level.  

I'm confident Antonio Callaway will be the best WR from this class by a wide margin. 

[Iamcanadian]

On 3/11/2018 at 8:46 PM, VanS said:

Why not?  If I said before the 2010 NFL Draft that Antonio Brown was the 2nd or 3rd best prospect in the draft, you would have said the same thing.  Now 8 years later, he's a future Hall of Famer and arguably the best player from that draft even though he went in the 6th round.  I'm not interested in just parroting what the consensus says.  I don't care if no one else believes Antonio Callaway would be a top 3 player in this class even with the off-field issues.  I based my opinions on prospects solely on what I've seen watching them play and not what the hype around them is.   With regard to Antonio Callaway, I see a guy with perennial All-Pro ability.  He jumped off the screen at me every time I watched him play at Florida.  As a wide receiver he exhibits sublime route running and instincts similar to Antonio Brown.  He's quick in and out of his breaks.  His hands are superb.  Practically the only elite attribute he lacks is size.  He does everything else required for a wide receiver at a high level.  

I'm confident Antonio Callaway will be the best WR from this class by a wide margin. 

There are 2 parts to a prospect,:

1) how he is rated as a prospect

2) what he actually accomplishes as a pro

You give me the example of Brown, I will give you the example of a thousand prospects who everybody loved, who completely flopped. Anybody can pick someone here or there, it does not make it much of a point.

Calloway is a 5'11" WR, he was never going to be a top 10 prospect even if he was squeaky clean. He was rated as a late first rounder at best and WR has one of the largest failure rates of any position, because the adjustment to the next level is immense. It is almost impossible to know how a WR will adjust to press coverage which he has never seen in college, route running, which few college WR's are ever asked to do and by being covered by CB's who are as fast or even faster than he is.

IMO, your claims are pure garbage, based on some fantasy in your mind. The guy's record indicates extremely serious red flags which you want to ignore, his talent is not anywhere near what you claim and talking about him in 5 years time is just sheer fantasy again. You have no way of knowing what he will be in 5 years, even if he manages to somehow stay clean.

Look, I absolutely hate it when talented players ruin their lives and profession by off field issues, I want to see them perform at their best, but experience has taught me that few people ever change their spots and a bad apple remains a bad apple and spoils the barrel. I really hope he turns his life around, but nobody is going to draft him very high and at the first sign of trouble, he will be out of the league.

Certainly, no top franchise will touch this guy with a ten foot pole, so he may get drafted by a loser who is desperate, but if he could not handle college life, what makes you think, he will handle having real money as a very young man. Sometimes it destroys the best of men and he has already shown, he is a weak man. 

[Tugboat]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well, I'd count Calloway as the top WR in this draft if it were just about talent, I don't have him as a top 3 overall guy this year, or a top 5 WR overall from past draft classes included, but he'd go in the top 20 overall in this draft IMO if it were just about talent.    And I'd say that I'm not even close to alone in counting him as the most talented WR....if that's the only Q.

But the off-the-field risks aren't at all benign - they are major, nuclear-level flags.   Let's recap what is known, not he-said/they-said.

1.  The sex assault case - yes he was acquitted...by the UF review, conducted by a long-time UF booster.    Still, that's not what gives me pause (it concerns me, but it's not factual or conclusive) - it's his defense - he was too stoned to be interested in sex.  That's on the record as his defense.    At the very least, he should have learned that maybe he can't get that stoned, or maybe...just maybe...stay off the weed if it's going to get you in that much trouble.  

2.  But then, he gets arrested for weed the next spring in 2016 after the whole business with the case.   By itself, I could care less - I think the NFL's policy on weed is stupid and outdated.  But the context here is massive.  He just got out of a major event, and he admitted that his drug use got him in a really bad situation at best - and then he gets caught again, when it's a violation of team rules.   

3.  Finally, the fraud arrest - which you say say is just because he's poor, so that's likely not going to be a problem later on.   The facts - he used a stolen CC to buy himself a MacBook.   This isn't stealing to put bread on the table.    It was premeditated, known.   But let's put that aside for a second.   The fact is, he committed knowing that he was on his last chance with Mcilwain, who said as much before.   It speaks to a complete lack of accountability, or any insight that maybe you need to change your behavior.  It's also incredibly stupid (no one will figure this out, right?).  

That sequence isn't a flag - it's a nuclear Defcon-1 level of risk.   The facts say there's a guy who didn't stop doing what was a threat to his ability to play.  It's hard not to ask if he understands about being accountable.   THAT is why he's falling down the WR list, and I totally get it.   One mistake, even a horrible one, you're 18 and male, that's possible all there is.  A 2nd time....hmm, ok, maybe he's learned.  A 3rd time, and for that decision?   Enough with the excuses, people.

And for the record - I love taking value picks for off-the-field risks...especially when they are rather nebulous.  Give me Josh Rosen every day of the week, I wouldn't shy away from him - he's getting dinged for being honest, and by the way, has done this in the offseason, not before games (because, team comes first).  I loved the idea taking Caleb Brantley Day 3, like CLE did, given the facts present at that time.   I'll own backing Reuben Foster and Gareon Conley staying in Rd 1 even now, given the facts known then (although Foster dude, smarten up, Conley was just a bad break with the shin splints).   So I'd say I am willing to take risks in my evaluations.   But the facts here with Calloway are truly worth of giving teams pause. I wouldn't touch him until Day 3 - and I believe he's the top WR talent-wise in this class.   The risk is THAT bad.   And if I feel that way....

Anyways, this is the ESB thread, so enough...back to regularly scheduled programming.

Yeah.  This isn't just an "awww shucks the kid is young and made a mistake" thing.  This is like..."You can't make this **** up" territory.

"Well gee wiz mr booster adjudicator man, i was clearly way too high to even want to do a sexual assault at that particular time you see".  Like...apparently the best out for the pending sexual assault allegations toward him in a total kangaroo court, was to flagrantly incriminate himself as a drug abuser.  That's...not good.

And then proceeds to get busted for his drug stuff.  And then proceeds to commit a felony credit card fraud as a the cherry on top.

That's not just "he made a mistake".  That's...he's literally a criminal territory.

 

And like you, i can understand second chances.  I think Isaiah Crowell was the best example i can think of.  He had those weapons charges that got him booted out of Georgia.  That's serious **** too.  Really serious.  But he went to a small school, paid his dues, and seemed genuinely repentant and reformed come draft day.  He'd allegedly cut ties with those associates and dedicated his life to making his football dream work.  And i thought from my armchair at least, that he was a guy who made a huge mistake, but had reformed, and cut ties with the bad influences that led him to that unfortunate point.  And thus far in his NFL career, he's borne that out by staying out of trouble.  I just don't get that impression with Callaway coming out.  He reeks of a guy with serious talent, looking for a quick payday, who still really hasn't learned his lesson.   Others will surely assess that differently, but that's my take.

[Broncofan]

Courtesy of @CalhounLambeau McGinn explains why ESB might have fallen so hard.  Sounds like diva and bad influence from dad, along with bad tape in 2017 re: effort and production, all dinged him.  

More talented than the usual UDFA for sure.  But he better be ok with playing ST - that’s how you stick on a roster early in your career:

Norris’ info might be more entertaining though.   The old Deion Sanders reasoning: