My thoughts on the combine and a mock

[Magnus-Viktor]

The guys that I really like:

Josh Allen, QB Wyoming - my perfect QB (if he can develop further, and if by some odd chance he's there at #28, he'd have a few years to learn behind Big Ben so we're not stuck in QB purgatory for another 20+ years again)

Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State - my perfect RB.  It's too bad we can't trade Bell for a pick to draft him.  

Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State - practically drool over the thought of a real receiving TE with elite athleticism like that.

Sam Hubbard, OLB/DE, Ohio State - I've been watching him for a few years now. He looks like TJ Watt 2.0, but bigger. Very smooth athlete, with ideal length and solid size.  I think he'd be more athletic and a better LB if he dropped 15 lbs so he was the same weight at Watt.  That 6.84 3-cone is impressive at 6'5 3/8" 270 lbs, and the 35" vert and 9'8" broad are good too.  

Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State - Just like Hubbard, he passes the eyeball test and then some. Very good, smooth athlete and awesome physique/size.   6'4 1/4" 256 lbs, 33 7/8" arms, he sure looks the part and moves very well.  4.64 40, 39.5" vert, 10'4" broad, 6.88 3-cone, 4.15 SS....checking all the boxes.  

Taven Bryan, DT/DE, Florida - Same as with Hubbard and Vander Esch. He caught my eye last year due to his size and athleticism, but he's just not a finished product. He sure looked the part today. 6'5" 291, with a good burst and good all around athleticism for the size. 5-tech isn't really a need right now, but if it were, he'd be the perfect candidate.  

Lorenzo Carter, OLB/DE, Georgia - I was pretty high on him from the flashes I saw in live games this year. He blew up the combine, and his physique was perfect.  6'6" 250 with 34" arms and 10 3/8" hands, and ran a 4.45 (official was 4.50) and had a 36" vert with 10'10" broad.  I have a feeling he'll go much higher than projected right now.  

Josey Jewell, ILB, Iowa - He didn't time very well (as expected), but he's instinctive (I watch a lot of Iowa) and just one hell of a football player. He moved well in drills, and had a great 6.80 3-cone showing good agility....that combined with his instincts should make him a good MLB even when running a 4.8. 6'1" 235, so a bit small, but I think he'd be a great fit inside in a 34, and he might be available in the 3rd.   

Dylan Cantrell, WR, Texas Tech - I had forgotten all about this guy until I saw him in the combine. I didn't watch the Red Raiders at all this year, but last year I watched them and he impressed me. I think he's essentially Cooper Kupp 2.0. He's 6'3" 226 lbs, with good routes, great hands, and amazing hops (38.5" vert, 10'10" broad), along with an insane 6.56 3-cone and really good 4.03 SS. The only thing lacking is speed, where he ran a 4.59 (Antonio Brown ran a 4.56).  

Trey Quinn, WR, SMU - Another value WR in the late rounds here. Good hands, good routes, but nothing special in any measurable. Just solid/average numbers, at 5'11 3/8" 203. Good slot guy, like the Cheatriots always get. 

Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame - I think he looks solid all around. Really thin, but good speed and great length.  May be somewhat limited in his route tree.  6'5" 214, 33" arms and 9 3/4" hands, with 4.48 speed.  Needs to get a lot stronger.  In 4 he'd be hard to pass up.  Crap QB play killed his stats and his stock to an extent.

DJ Chark, WR, LSU - Another guy kinda like St. Brown here, but a much better athlete (fastest guy at the combine so far, with a 4.34 40, 40" vert and 10'9" broad, at 6'3" 199 lbs). The thing I question on him is his route tree. I didn't see any good/quick cuts in routes. He rounded everything. But he's 6'3" with elite long speed and jumping ability, so he could be a Mike Wallace type guy (early Steelers' version where he averaged 20 YPC).  I don't like or trust Martavis Bryant, so I'm looking for a vertical threat to replace him with. 

 

And finally, some guys I haven't seen play before, but who look the part and have some good upside, or that have some red flags I'm not sure on:

Marcus Davenport, OLB, Texas-San Antonio - This dude was a freak at the combine. He was right there with Hubbard and Chubb as the smoothest looking, and best athlete in the group. He checked all the boxes. 6'6" 264, 33 5/8" arms, so he's long. 4.58 in the 40, 10'4" broad, 33.5" vert, 22 reps. On NFL.com, his comparison is? Danielle Hunter. That is exactly what I was thinking when I saw him.  He's a projected 1-2 now, so he's high on draft boards anyway, not some gem as I thought he might be since I hadn't heard of him.  

Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida State - 6'4" 251 with 34 5/8" arms, he has good length, and elite athleticism. 4.53 40, 39.5" vert and 10'4" broad. Considerably smaller than Davenport, but even a little more athletic.  Lots of injury concerns.  

Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane - 6'6" 262, 34" arms and 10 5/8" hands. He apparently played as a 34 DE this season, which might be part of why he was a projected 6-7 before the combine. He's long and athletic, with a 4.60 40, 38.5" vert, 10'8" broad. This is exactly the kind of guy I'd be looking for in rounds 5 and beyond. 

BJ Hill, DT, NC State - 6'4" 315, 4.99 in the 40, 35 reps. He looks the part of an athletic DT. Projected as a 4-5, so I'd be looking at him around there for athletic depth.

Kevin Toliver II, CB, LSU - He sure looks the part at 6'2" 192 and moves well, but I've read too much about him being a headcase.  I'm sick of that with Bryant and Bell as-is.  No point in drafting another malcontent.  

Avonte Maddox, CB, Pitt - He looked really sudden in all of his movements.  His breaks and his feet were really quick.  There's definitely something to work with there in the Mike Hilton mold I think, and I love Mike Hilton.  4.39 in the 40, 37" vert, 10'5" broad, 6.51 3-cone, 4.00 SS.  Great numbers, but he's also only 5'9" 184.....same exact size as Mike Hilton on draft day.  

Jessie Bates III, S, Wake Forest - Just a sophomore, he looked the part at the combine.  6'1 1/8", 200 lbs with 4.51 speed.  They said he covered slots, and that is the kind of safety I want.  A coverage guy, not a hitter.  

 

Mike Mitchell is a cap casualty.  Save 6.4 of 8.1 mill by cutting him.  That's my only move in the offseason aside from the draft.  Rest of the depth chart remains basically the same.

Mock Draft:

*Trade back into very early 2, acquiring an early 3*

2.  Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado -  I was more than a little disappointed at his 4.50 time in the 40 and he didn't look as good in drills as I expected, but I've watched him play enough to know I like his coverage skills, and his arm length makes up for his mediocre speed.  33 1/2" arms, at 6' 1/4", so he's really long.  He also weighed in at a solid 201 lbs to my surprise.  Maybe he gained some weight for the combine, and that explains his speed as well.  Regardless, I'm not a fan of Burns, and while I am a big fan of Joe Haden, he's injury prone.  The depth at CB is nonexistent in Pittsburgh as well to me.  Hilton is a nickel only.  Gay should be gone.  Who else is worth mentioning?  Brian Allen?  Cameron Sutton?  Career backup Coty Sensabaugh?  (CBS has him at #26, Walterfootball a 2-3, and NFL.com a 1-2)

2.  Leighton Vander Esch, ILB, Boise State - We all saw how pathetic the LBs for the Steelers were last year when Shazier got hurt.  Way too slow and just lacking in talent.  Vander Esch checks every box for me.  Size, athleticism, coverage, etc.  6'4" 256 lbs, 4.65 40, 39.5" vert, 10'4" broad, 6.88 3-cone, 4.15 SS, 11.57 LS.  That's pretty damn elite.  20 reps with long arms (33 7/8") isn't bad either.  He played at 240, and gained the weight for the combine, and still tested that well.  Makes me wonder how he'd perform at his usual 240, which is big enough for today's NFL.  (CBS has him at #54, Walterfootball a 2-3, and NFL.com a 1-2)

*trade both 3s for a late 2 and a 4*

2.  Sam Hubbard, OLB, Ohio State - I've thought all along he would be TJ Watt 2.0, and seeing him do the linebacker drills at the combine today just solidified that belief for me.  35" vert, 9'8" broad, 6.84 3-cone, 4.32 SS, 11.61 LS, at 6'5 3/8", 270 lbs.  (I think he's most likely a 1st rounder, but I see CBS has him rated at #106, so that's a 4th.  The combine today showed me there were quite a few guys like him in this draft, and someone has to slide a bit.)   Just imagine a linebacking corp of Watt and Hubbard outside, both around 6'5" 255 (if Hubbard slimmed down from 270 to play OLB) with good all around skill-sets and not just an athlete like Dupree, along with a 6'4" 255 lbs MLB with speed like Vander Esch inside.  That would sure make the DBs' jobs a lot easier.  If he's not around, I go for Lorenzo Carter, OLB, Georgia.  (CBS has him at 106 (4th), Walterfootball a 1-3, NFL.com has no projection, but compares him to Preston Smith who was drafted at #38 in 2015)

***note*** if Mike Gesicki is actually around at #97 as projected on CBS right now, I'd trade up to get him for sure.  Maybe trade Martavis Bryant + for the pick.  I can't justify drafting a TE over LBs & CBs of that caliber, but he'd be a great pickup to help Ben out.  I really don't see him getting out of the 1st or early 2nd though.  

4.  Jessie Bates III, S, Wake Forest - This was initially going to be The Outlaw Josey Jewell, ILB, Iowa, but I decided to change it to Bates after seeing him at the combine combined with the need at S and already drafting 2 LBs in Vander Esch and Hubbard.  Bates is a guy who some think could go in 2, but after watching the Clemson game and seeing how soft he was in run support and his ankle diving tackles, I think 3-4 is more appropriate for him as he provides essentially nothing in run support.  He has solid size at 6'1 1/8", 200 lbs, and good athleticism, but his softness will drop him.  He's essentially a CB playing FS, and is a FS only.  No playing in the box for him at all.  I'll take that over Mike Mitchell any day though.  (CBS has him at 127 (4th), Walterfootball a 3-4, NFL.com a 2-3)

5.  Quenton Meeks, S/CB, Stanford - He looks like more of a safety than a CB to me, at 6'2" 205.  He tested really well with the 39" vert and 10'8" broad, as well as a solid 6.72 3-cone.  (CBS has him at #82, Walterfootball a 5-7, NFL.com a 4-5)

5.  Brian O'Neill, OT, Pitt - I see he's projected earlier on some sites, but I think the lack of sand in his pants should drop considerably.  It's plain as can be that he lacks an anchor, but is a great athlete.  That 4.82 40 he ran makes me wonder if he could be converted back to TE even.  But really, what I'm thinking here is if he slides to 4 or 5 like TJ Clemmings did (rightfully so), he'd be worth picking up and trying to develop some more core strength in him and maybe start him opposite Villanueva, or perhaps even replace him in the future.  Until then, he's your extra OL or a jumbo TE in heavy packages.  (CBS has him at #218 (6th round, 44th pick this year), Walterfootball a 2-4, and NFL.com a 2-3)

7.  Ade Aruna, OLB, Toledo - This is where you draft Bud Dupree types that are pure projection.  Not the 1st round.  He has all the physical tools, but that's it right now.  He's only been playing football since his senior year of high school, so he's raw.  Only 12 career sacks, including just 3 this last season.  (CBS has him at #233 (7th) , Walterfootball a 4-6, and NFL.com a 6-7)  

7.  Dylan Cantrell, WR, Texas Tech - Cooper Kupp 2.0.  He has every single thing you could look for in a WR, except long speed.  4.59 is what drops him.  #7 in bench at 18 reps, #3 in vert at 38.5", #2 in broad at 10'10", #1 in 3-cone at 6.56, #1 in SS at 4.04, #1 in LS at 10.85.   Elite athlete, minus the long speed.  (CBS has him at #228 (6th) , Walterfootball a 6-FA, and NFL.com a PFA)

UDFA.  Quadree Henderson, KR, Pitt - He's a return specialist that doesn't offer much as a WR except a gadget guy on end arounds.  He's dangerous with the ball in his hands.  17 catches, 186 yards, 0 TDs this season.  We need to get Brown off PRs and someone a lot more dangerous than Eli or DHB or JuJu back there on returns.  (CBS has him at #275 (UDFA) , Walterfootball a 5-7, and NFL.com a 4-5)

UDFA.  Troy Apke, Gunner/STer, Penn State - He has great tested athleticism, but I never saw him do much in games.  #1 in the 40 at 4.34, #3 in vert at 41", #4 in broad at 10'11", #1 in SS at 4.03, #1 in 3-cone at 6.56, 16 reps, at 6'1 1/4" 200 lbs.  I'll take it any day....an elite athlete as a UDFA.  He's said to be a ST's ace, so he'll take DHB's place as the gunner.  (CBS doesn't list him, Walterfootball doesn't list him, and NFL.com a 7/PFA)

UDFA.  Avonte Maddox, Nickel/STer, Pitt - I keep this guy in Pittsburgh and stash him behind Mike Hilton, whom he reminds me of.  He's physical and scrappy, but small at 5'9" 184, the same size as Hilton.  4.39 speed, 6.51 3-cone, 4.00 SS, along with 37" vert and 10'5" broad = good athlete.  (CBS has him at #267 (UDFA), Walterfootball a 5-7, and NFL.com a FA)

 

Depth Chart:

QB:  Big Ben, Landry Jones, Josh Dobbs
RB:  Le'Veon Bell, James Conner, Terrell Watson
FB:  Roosevelt Nix
WR:  Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Martavis Bryant, Eli Rogers, Dylan Cantrell 7, Quadree Henderson UDFA
TE:  Vance McDonald, Jesse James, Xavier Grimble
LT:  Alejandro Villanueva, Jerald Hawkins, Brian O'Neill 5
LG:  Ramon Foster, BJ Finney
C:  Maurkice Pouncey< BJ Finney
RG:  David DeCastro, Matt Feiler
RT:  Marcus Gilbert, Chris Hubbard

DE:  Cameron Heyward, LT Walton
NT:  Javon Hargrave, Daniel McCullers
DE:  Stephon Tuitt, Tyson Alualu
OLB:  Sam Hubbard 2, Anthony Chickillo, Arthur Moats
ILB:  Leighton Vander Esch 2, LJ Fort
ILB:  Vince Williams, Tyler Matakevich
OLB:  TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, Ade Aruna 7
CB:  Joe Haden, Coty Sensabaugh
FS:  Quenton Meeks 5, Jessie Bates 4
SS:  Sean Davis, Robert Golden, Troy Apke UDFA
CB:  Isaiah Oliver 2, Artie Burns, Brian Allen
Nickel:  Mike Hilton, Cameron Sutton, Avonte Maddox UDFA

K:  Chris Boswell
P:  Jordan Berry (or FA)
KR:  Quadree Henderson UDFA
PR:  Quadree Henderson UDFA
STer:  Troy Apke UDFA

[JPeezy55]

I'd be disappointed if we traded back and took a corner honestly, unless the value was great. Just don't see it happening, but who knows.

 

Also LVE, Hubbard, Bates and O'Neill almost definitely gone before those picks

[Magnus-Viktor]

8 hours ago, JPeezy55 said:

I'd be disappointed if we traded back and took a corner honestly, unless the value was great. Just don't see it happening, but who knows.

 

Also LVE, Hubbard, Bates and O'Neill almost definitely gone before those picks

I'm inclined to agree with you for the most part.  That's why I included their current projections to show that it isn't a huge reach to project them where I took them.  As I always say, someone has to fall.  Every year someone I think is a stud goes way later than they should, and someone I thought would be around in the mid to later rounds ends up going really early.  I shouldn't say someone I thought would be around, but someone projected (as a rule) to go later, goes sooner.  Travis Frederick going in 1 to the Cowboys for example.  Then you get the guys like Clemmings who were projected earlier and then went on day 3, as they should have.  That's who I liken O'Neill to, and why I took him later.  He'll likely be gone, but he shouldn't go really early....that complete lack of an anchor should tank his stock considerably.

[43M]

Josh Allen is your perfect QB?        I will say the Steelers would be the ideal situation in regards to him succeeding in the league since he would have talent around him and wouldnt have to start right away....however, I wouldnt even CONSIDER him with our 28th pick.   I wouldnt consider him in the 2nd round either.     3rd round.....Id consider him but he wouldnt be a "no doubt" pick.

Fortunately, some other team will thankfully waste a high pick on him and it wont be an issue.

As Ive stated many times and will likely continue stating as long as Steeler fans keep pushing him....LVE is extremely overrated.....but in the 2nd round, I could live with it.

[jebrick]

9 hours ago, Magnus-Viktor said:

UDFA.  Troy Apke

I am glad you did not draft Apke.  He is allergic to contact. He is a track athlete not a football player.  I do not think he makes it in the NFL.

[MOSteelers56]

44 minutes ago, jebrick said:

I am glad you did not draft Apke.  He is allergic to contact. He is a track athlete not a football player.  I do not think he makes it in the NFL.

I think you feel similarly about Gesicki, right? I've never seen a dude look soft on a highlight video but Gesicki's extreme softness was alarming. 

[jebrick]

6 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I think you feel similarly about Gesicki, right? I've never seen a dude look soft on a highlight video but Gesicki's extreme softness was alarming. 

I grade offensive players differently but Gesicki fits into the Athlete mode for a TE.  His blocking sucks.  He does not get the separation you would expect him to get.  If he is there in the 2nd the Steeler could get him but then you have JJ and Gesicki with limited to no blocking skills.  They are both the same player.

 

Jessie Bates is the FS I would be most excited about in this draft.

[warfelg]

1 hour ago, jebrick said:

I grade offensive players differently but Gesicki fits into the Athlete mode for a TE.  His blocking sucks.  He does not get the separation you would expect him to get.  If he is there in the 2nd the Steeler could get him but then you have JJ and Gesicki with limited to no blocking skills.  They are both the same player.

 

Jessie Bates is the FS I would be most excited about in this draft.

James and Gesicki are really different players.  James blocking also really improved last year.  Sorry but to say they are the same is silly to me.  That's like saying Jimmy Graham and Delanie Walker are the same player because they can work the seam.

Gesicki is much more athletic than James and has the ability to move and control his body in ways that James cannot.  The similarities are they are tall and white.  Ends there.

[Magnus-Viktor]

Interesting comments here.  

Yes, Josh Allen is the closest to my perfect QB that I've seen.  He checks all the boxes.  He has some risk because of completion %, but most of that is just his supporting cast.  I also watched him play Iowa live and that wasn't good.  But he sure has all the raw ability in the world, and unlike the Jamarcus Russells of the world, he doesn't appear to be a moron with bad character.  

Mike Gesicki would be a great weapon in this offense IMO.  You'd have to use him right, but if he could turn into a Jimmy Graham type of WR, I don't really care if he blocks or not.  

What do you guys think of the Pitt CB?  I remember watching games and he flashed, and at the combine he flashed the instant stop-start skills that are so important for DBs.  

Anyone seen much of Dylan Cantrell?  He caught my eye last year, but I didn't watch any Texas Tech this year.  He tested off the charts, at 6'3" 226, in everything except 40 time.  Good routes and agility can compensate for that.  

[DalCowboyzRule]

On ‎3‎/‎8‎/‎2018 at 5:57 PM, Magnus-Viktor said:

Anyone seen much of Dylan Cantrell?  He caught my eye last year, but I didn't watch any Texas Tech this year.  He tested off the charts, at 6'3" 226, in everything except 40 time.  Good routes and agility can compensate for that.  

Yeah, what do you want to know?

[Magnus-Viktor]

On 3/12/2018 at 3:45 PM, DalCowboyzRule said:

Yeah, what do you want to know?

Just what your thoughts are on him.  I haven't watched him extensively, but he looked pretty solid when I watched.  A lot better than an UDFA.  

[Armsteeld2]

35 minutes ago, Magnus-Viktor said:

Just what your thoughts are on him.  I haven't watched him extensively, but he looked pretty solid when I watched.  A lot better than an UDFA.  

He is Jordy Nelson.  Not because of the obvious.  They are almost identical in size and height.  They have similar style of play.  Both play faster than they timed.  Both can win the jump balls and have good body control.  When watching Cantrell, I had no idea he was that big.  Solid guy in my opinion.

[DalCowboyzRule]

28 minutes ago, Magnus-Viktor said:

Just what your thoughts are on him.  I haven't watched him extensively, but he looked pretty solid when I watched.  A lot better than an UDFA.  

Oh yeah, I mean I was expecting him to be a 5th-7th round pick before the combine, with his combine I think he's a 3rd-4th rounder. His biggest negative is his age, he'll be a 24 year old rookie.

He's kind of a weird player in that he for some reason despite all his physical attributes never really gets open, yet he catches everything in traffic. Just great hands. Good red zone target with his size on fades, slants and comebacks. Tough to bring down in open field. We never really went downfield with him, a lot of short and intermediate stuff. I think we limited him some in that regard. Can line up in the slot and outside. Played some tight end for us too in certain packages. Not really sure if he can contribute on special teams since he never played them here. 

A lazy comparison imo would be Eric Decker-ish. 

Fun fact, he was high school teammates (and college obviously) with Patrick Mahomes, so there's been a lot of thought that he could get drafted by Kansas City but who knows now.

[JustPlainNasty]

On 3/8/2018 at 3:57 PM, Magnus-Viktor said:

Interesting comments here.  

Yes, Josh Allen is the closest to my perfect QB that I've seen.  He checks all the boxes.  He has some risk because of completion %, but most of that is just his supporting cast.  I also watched him play Iowa live and that wasn't good.  But he sure has all the raw ability in the world, and unlike the Jamarcus Russells of the world, he doesn't appear to be a moron with bad character.  

Mike Gesicki would be a great weapon in this offense IMO.  You'd have to use him right, but if he could turn into a Jimmy Graham type of WR, I don't really care if he blocks or not.  

What do you guys think of the Pitt CB?  I remember watching games and he flashed, and at the combine he flashed the instant stop-start skills that are so important for DBs.  

Anyone seen much of Dylan Cantrell?  He caught my eye last year, but I didn't watch any Texas Tech this year.  He tested off the charts, at 6'3" 226, in everything except 40 time.  Good routes and agility can compensate for that.  

 

True accuracy for a QB has very little to do with the statistical completion percentage. It has everything to do with precision and location.  Allen has a wild live arm and has not been accurate to the level he needs his entire time at Wyoming. Blaming  it on the supporting cast is a copout...there is a hell of a receiver on the Chicago Bears roster named Tanner Gentry that made Josh Allen look better than he was last season and helped put him on the map. He also had a center that is on the Washington Redskins in Chase Roullier. Allen had the same issues last season as he has this season. Its on him. He wasn't under extreme duress at all times, in any case that is something he should be measured by anyway in how he handles it, its gonna happen and even worse on this level. He has to read faster and throw into tighter windows with anticipation now. But its not all about rocketing it in there, can he turn and throw an out to the sidelines without throwing it into the stands.  Thats the type of accuracy you need to be concerned about. I don't not like Allen, but these are more legitimate concerns than his excusers like to make them out not to be.

A Qb with a strong arm and accuracy issues is like a Home Run hitter that bats .225 and strikes out 200 times in a season. Sure he may be a hero sometimes, but far too & more often he is going to leave runners on base . He needs to make contact a lot more often than he needs to swing for the fence.  The only real concern with arm strength is do they meet a pre requisite minimum to make all necessary throws. Obviously, it's better to a degree the stronger an arm is, but by far, the importance of  Accuracy trumps Arm strength. 

 

[Magnus-Viktor]

On 3/14/2018 at 8:11 PM, Armsteeld2 said:

He is Jordy Nelson.  Not because of the obvious.  They are almost identical in size and height.  They have similar style of play.  Both play faster than they timed.  Both can win the jump balls and have good body control.  When watching Cantrell, I had no idea he was that big.  Solid guy in my opinion.

I don't think he's nearly as athletic (fast) as Jordy.  He certainly has the hops and agility though.  Statistically, 4.51 to 4.59 backs up my observations.  Cantrell is only 1/4" taller, but is 13 lbs heavier.  

So where do you think he should be drafted?  On the draft simulators and draft sites, I was seeing 7th/PDFA.  I'd put him more in the 3-4 range myself due to lack of speed.  I had forgotten all about him until the combine.  Then I remembered watching him in '16 and being impressed with him.  Definitely would be nice to have a guy like him behind Brown and JuJu.