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2018 LA Bull - 5th Season


Techbert

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BREAKING NEWS!

Bull trade for and sign Khalil Mack!

Bull trade 1-19, 6-19, 1-20, 3-20 and receive de Khalil Mack Chi, 2-20. (There is no conditional 5th round return pick such as in the Bears' offer.)

Contract details are the same as in the actual contract. 6 year extension. $141mm.  $60mm guaranteed at signing, with a total of $90mm guaranteed at later points.

"We still have work ahead of us," owner Techbert said. We have negotiations coming up with some important young players like Leonard Williams and Grady Jarrett. We go in the 2019 draft with no first or second day picks. But we feel good about what we have. We just have to fit them together."

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Bull 53 man roster announced!

(We had 61 players make an initial roster, plus injured and waiver claims. This tells me we have achieved a deep team, and can identify hidden talent. It also tells me there are good players we cannot hold onto.)

Bold are rookies. Underlined are new vets on the team. The 2nd number on the line is age. (Everyone is 25, it seems.)

qb 11 Carson Wentz Phi 25
qb  7 Brett Hundley Sea 25

rb 26 Jay Ajayi Phi 25
rb 20 Isaiah Crowell NYJ 25
rb 20 CJ Anderson Car 27
rb 30 Kenneth Dixon Bal 24
rb 44 Mike Boone Min 23

fb 45 Roosevelt Nix-Jones Pit 26

wr 12 Allen Robinson Chi 25
wr 14 Mike Wallace Phi 32
wr 17 DJ Chark Jax 21
wr 13 Michael Gallup Dal 22

wr 83 Willie Snead Bal 25
wr 12 Travis Benjamin LAC 28

te 80 OJ Howard TB 23
te 80 Jake Butt Den 23

ot 71 La'el Collins Dal 25
ot 76 Nate Solder NYG 30
ot 63 Chad Wheeler NYG 24

og 76 Laurent Duvernay-Tardif KC 27
og 67 Quinton Spain Ten 27
og 74 James Hurst Bal 26

c 53 Mike Pouncey LAC 29
c-g 65 Greg Mancz Hou 26
c-g 73 Isaac Seumalo Phi 24

 

de 95 Derek Rivers NE 24
de 75 Jordan Willis Cin 23
de 90 Derek Shelby Atl 29

dt 97 Grady Jarrett Atl 25
dt 92 Leonard Williams NYJ 24
dt 71 Danny Shelton NE 25
dt 95 Jack Crawford Atl 29
dt 96 LT Walton Pit 26

olb (52) Khalil Mack Chi 27
olb 59 De'Vondre Campbell Atl 25
olb 51 Kyle Emanuel LAC 27
olb 91 Shilique Calhoun Oak 26

ilb 59 Danny Trevathan Chi 28
ilb 49 Tremaine Edmunds Buf 20
ilb 48 Terrance Smith KC 25

s 38 Adrian Amos Chi 25
s 42 Barry Church Jax 30
s 42 Morgan Burnett Pit 29
s 38 Justin Reid Hou 21

cb 22 Marcus Peters LAR 25
cb 25 Richard Sherman SF 30

cb 22 Aaron Colvin Hou 26
cb 20 Desmond King LAC 23
cb 35 Pierre Desir Ind 27
cb 20 Mackensie Alexander Min 24

 

pk 9 Chris Boswell Pit 27
p 4 Michael Dickson Sea 22
ds 42 Thomas Hennessy NYJ 24

Injured:

rb Zach Zenner Det
wr Andy Jones Det
c Jake Brendel Mia (not IRL but I was able to stash him. Don't tell Roger G. Yes. Even in real life. I should be a team GM. )
lb Mike Hull Mia
lb Obo Okoronkwo LAR
lb Ben Heeney Hou

Notable cuts:

rb Roc Thomas Min
rb Darrel Williams KC

dt Carl Davis Cle
dt Justin Zimmer Atl
lb Anthony Chickillo Pit
lb Emmanuel Ellerbee LAC
s Isaiah Johnson LAR
cb Sam Shields LAR
pk Andy Lee Az

All the "notable cuts" either survived to make the 1st day 53-man roster or were claimed on waivers. That translates into 9 cuts being claimed on waivers/signed immediately. To put this in perspective, the lead in the IRL NFL is 4. It definitely was tough for me to make my cuts.

As always, any commentary, positive or negative or neutral, is appreciated.

 

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Okay, I analyzed this team quickly, cuz I had to figure out if I made the playoffs. I did, even though Jerry jinxed me. :Lol

I figure 11-5, but would take 10-6 or 12-4. You tell me.

I had injuries everywhere, but I had injuries last year everywhere, so I accumulated strength in numbers. Guys went on IR. Guys came off IR at the same time.

Rookies are bolded.

Quarterback. I only had 12 starts, and slotted 4 for Brett Hundley. He was on the roster all year but did not play. I had to go to 2017 numbers, which were not good but they were all I had. I couldn't use Allen any more, cuz injury.

Name/Starts/QBR/Estimated Yards
Carson Wentz 11  102.2  3074
Brett Hundley  (4) 70.6  (1200)
Kyle Allen  1  113.1  266

So that is good performance for 12 games, and bad but not disastrous play for 4. Yay me for picking Kyle Allen out of the crowd. If his shoulder injury heals okay, he should easily make the roster for next season.

Running Back. Major committee effort, but a lot of backs chipped away. Losing Ajayi early to injury hurt, but everyone played. I had only 13 starts, but enough quality relief performance to make that unimportant.

Name/Games/Starts/Rush Yards/YPA/Receiving Yards/YPC
Isaiah Crowell 13/6 685/4.8 152/7.2
CJ Anderson 11/3 403/6.0 41/8.2
Kenneth Dixon 6/0 333/5.6 51/8.5
Zach Zenner 8/1 265/4.8 56/8.0
Jay Ajayi 4/3 154/3.4 20/4.0
Mike Boone 8/0 47/4.3 1/0.5
Darrel Williams 6/0 44/3.4 27/9.0
Rosie Nix (fb) 16/0 4/4.0 38/9.5

Overall, that is a 4.8 YPA and a lot of yards. I am going with the results as is, with no addition or reduction. Don't know what I have with the rookies, and some of the vets may be near the end of their shelf life.

Wide Receiver/Tight End. Major committee effort. Lots of injuries. Rookies are promising, but not there yet. Wide receiver takes time.

Name/Games/Starts/Catches/Yds/Rushes/Yds
Allen Robinson 13/12 55/754 1/9
Willie Snead 16/10 62/651 1/13
Michael Gallup 16/8 33/507
Jordan Matthews 14/3 20/300
Martavious Bryant 8/2 19/266 3/23
Travis Benjamin 12/3 12/186 7/41
DJ Chark 11/0 14/174
Andy Jones 8/3 11/80
Mike Wallace 2/2 0/0

OJ Howard 10/8 34/565
Jake Butt 3/3 8/85
Mo Alie-Cox 9/1 7/133
Darren Waller 4/0 6/75

Overall, I needed 48 starts and got 43. I can simulate two more out of Howard/Alie-Cox/Waller without changing anything and three more out of Snead/Matthews. I am bumping up the total yardage slightly to catch up with quarterback estimates.

Offensive Line. I will spare you the list, unless you really really want to see it. I needed 80 starts and got 108! That tells me the line was not a limiting factor. It also allows me to drift the above offensive numbers up some if I need to. There is also good balance between the play of tackles, guards, centers, and swing players. I lost Duvernay-Tardif early, which is a shame. Solder was not worth the big bucks. But overall I think I got good play.

Overall Offense. I simulate 4540 passing yards and 2133 rushing yards. That is 5th in the league in passing and 5th in the league in rushing. Basically, Falcons in the air and Panthers on the ground. Total offense - 3rd in league, between the Rams and Bucs. I lost 12 interceptions and fumbled 17 times losing 12 of them.

I am comfortable with those levels. If anything I could have raised the rushing yards. Oh, if only CW stayed healthy!
 

Defensive Line/Linebacker Hybrid defense. Some 3-4 and some 4-3 and less 4-2 than is ideal. KMack was worth every penny. Jarrett is a star no one knows about. Edmunds is still learning, but established himself as a leader. Trevathan held up. Enough star power in the Front Seven to justify a strong defensive rating.

Name/Games/Starts/Tackles/Sacks/Int/FF
Khalil Mack 14/13 47 12.5 1 6
Grady Jarrett 14/14 52 6 0 3
Leonard Williams 16/16 42 5 0 0
Jack Crawford (!) 16/11 35 6 1 1
Bruce Irvin 8/3 13 3.5 0 0
Derrick Shelby 7/3 10 0 0 0
Danny Shelton 13/1 21 0 0 0
Jordan Willis 16/1 20 1 0 0
Derek Rivers 6/0 2 1 0 0
LT Walton 4/0 2 0 0 0

Tremaine Edmunds 15/15 121 2 2 2
Danny Trevathan 16/16 102 2 2 1
De'Vondre Campbell 16/13 94 1.5 0 0
Kyle Emanuel 16/7 30 1 0 0
Mike Hull 8/1 9 0 0 0
Terrance Smith 7/0 22 1 0 0
Obo Okoronkwo No games. I kept him on IR even though the Rams activated him.

I needed 112 starts and got 114. So matched, with no shortage or perceptible overload.

Corner/Safety.

Marcus Peters 16/16 43 0 3 0
Richard Sherman 14/14 37 1 0 0
Desmond King 16/8 61 0 3 1
Pierre Desir (!) 16/12 79 0 1 2
Mackensie Alexander 15/6 43 4 0 0
Aaron Colvin 10/2 29 0 0 0

Adrian Amos 16/16 73 1 2 0
Justin Reid 16/12 88 0 3 1
Barry Church 11/11 38 1 1 0
Morgan Burnett 11/2 30 0 0 0
Isaiah Johnson 2/0 1 0 0 0

I needed 64 to 80 starts, and got 99, so I have to tampen down some of the results, since only one person on the field at any one time. Most of the lost playing time comes from Church (who was cut), Burnett, Colvin, and some from Alexander. On the other hand, I simulate better results on paper from Peters and Sherman, who are well-matched to play the exact same defensive schemes. Peters was misused by the Rams and Sherman was thrown away from every game. On this defense the offenses would have to have thrown towards Sherman more, so better results from Peters/Sherman and lower results from 4 names above balance out.

King was a star, despite the stat line. Reid is a star in the making.

Overall Defense.

I can't simulate total yards for defense like I can offense, so I look at tackles, sacks, and turnovers. Tackles can be misleading, but if you play well you will get a certain number of them, and I am happy with those numbers. Sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles tell you how dynamic the defense plays. I looked at pass defended as a vague somehow good thing, but am not sure how to use it other than as a check for the above.

I had 1144 total tackles, which is adjusted down, particularly in the secondary. Not only did Church/et. al. play less but the strong linebacker play means less plays bled through to the secondary. So less safety tackles, but they were there when needed. Call it 1050 total tackles which is in line with the league, both good and bad defenses. Edmunds and Campbell got less tackles at linebacker, cuz Trevathan, but who cares?

I had 49,5 sacks, adjusted down to 48. That is 7th in the league but 3rd place was 50, so it is a tight group. I had 19 interceptions, which stayed the same, good for 3rd in the league. I forced 17 fumbles good for 9th. Pass Defensed was also 9th.

I count 13 star or quality players on defense, and that is good. They are found at all three levels.

I simulate the defense as about 5th in the league. Better than Dallas and almost at Jax/Hou.

Special Teams. Short version. Punting was top 5. Kicking was bottom 5. Coverage was good. Returners were top half. Special teams helped a bit but did not hurt. A few missed field goals but overall a plus.

I gave up 12 interceptions and lost 12 fumbles. I intercepted 19 times and caused enough fumbles to take 12. Turnovers plus 7, which is 8th in the league.

Overall, I don't see any team weaknesses other than injuries, which managed to cover themselves for the season. 11-5 is 6th in the league. 12-4 is 3rd and 10-6 is 8th.  I would go with 11-5, with 11-4-1 being my second choice, but I care what all of you think.

 

 

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For the playoffs, I have

Carson Wentz qb (inj)
Brett Hundley qb
CJ Anderson rb
Kenneth Dixon rb
Darrel Williams rb
Allen Robinson wr (inj)
Willie Snead wr
Michael Gallup wr
Jordan Matthews wr
Travis Benjamin wr
Mike Wallace wr (inj)
Mo Alie-Cox te
La'el Collins ot
Mike Pouncey c
James Hurst t-g
Isaac Seumalo c-g (inj)
Greg Mancz c-g

Khalil Mack edge
Derek Rivers edge
Danny Shelton nt
Danny Trevathan ilb
Kyle Emanuel olb
Marcus Peters cb
Desmond King cb
Pierre Desir cb
Aaron Colvin cb
Justin Reid s
Adrian Amos s

Michael Dickson p

Obviously some key players did not make the playoffs. My success or failure to win games means you see if the players who actually play do so above or below their normal capability.

For me to win even the first round game, I need some people to play well above their normal level, seeing as I am starting Brett Hundley (barring Carson Wentz rising from the grave).

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18 hours ago, Techbert said:

Okay, I analyzed this team quickly, cuz I had to figure out if I made the playoffs. I did, even though Jerry jinxed me. :Lol

I figure 11-5, but would take 10-6 or 12-4. You tell me.

I had injuries everywhere, but I had injuries last year everywhere, so I accumulated strength in numbers. Guys went on IR. Guys came off IR at the same time.

Rookies are bolded.

Quarterback. I only had 12 starts, and slotted 4 for Brett Hundley. He was on the roster all year but did not play. I had to go to 2017 numbers, which were not good but they were all I had. I couldn't use Allen any more, cuz injury.

Name/Starts/QBR/Estimated Yards
Carson Wentz 11  102.2  3074
Brett Hundley  (4) 70.6  (1200)
Kyle Allen  1  113.1  266

So that is good performance for 12 games, and bad but not disastrous play for 4. Yay me for picking Kyle Allen out of the crowd. If his shoulder injury heals okay, he should easily make the roster for next season.

Running Back. Major committee effort, but a lot of backs chipped away. Losing Ajayi early to injury hurt, but everyone played. I had only 13 starts, but enough quality relief performance to make that unimportant.

Name/Games/Starts/Rush Yards/YPA/Receiving Yards/YPC
Isaiah Crowell 13/6 685/4.8 152/7.2
CJ Anderson 11/3 403/6.0 41/8.2
Kenneth Dixon 6/0 333/5.6 51/8.5
Zach Zenner 8/1 265/4.8 56/8.0
Jay Ajayi 4/3 154/3.4 20/4.0
Mike Boone 8/0 47/4.3 1/0.5
Darrel Williams 6/0 44/3.4 27/9.0
Rosie Nix (fb) 16/0 4/4.0 38/9.5

Overall, that is a 4.8 YPA and a lot of yards. I am going with the results as is, with no addition or reduction. Don't know what I have with the rookies, and some of the vets may be near the end of their shelf life.

Wide Receiver/Tight End. Major committee effort. Lots of injuries. Rookies are promising, but not there yet. Wide receiver takes time.

Name/Games/Starts/Catches/Yds/Rushes/Yds
Allen Robinson 13/12 55/754 1/9
Willie Snead 16/10 62/651 1/13
Michael Gallup 16/8 33/507
Jordan Matthews 14/3 20/300
Martavious Bryant 8/2 19/266 3/23
Travis Benjamin 12/3 12/186 7/41
DJ Chark 11/0 14/174
Andy Jones 8/3 11/80
Mike Wallace 2/2 0/0

OJ Howard 10/8 34/565
Jake Butt 3/3 8/85
Mo Alie-Cox 9/1 7/133
Darren Waller 4/0 6/75

Overall, I needed 48 starts and got 43. I can simulate two more out of Howard/Alie-Cox/Waller without changing anything and three more out of Snead/Matthews. I am bumping up the total yardage slightly to catch up with quarterback estimates.

Offensive Line. I will spare you the list, unless you really really want to see it. I needed 80 starts and got 108! That tells me the line was not a limiting factor. It also allows me to drift the above offensive numbers up some if I need to. There is also good balance between the play of tackles, guards, centers, and swing players. I lost Duvernay-Tardif early, which is a shame. Solder was not worth the big bucks. But overall I think I got good play.

Overall Offense. I simulate 4540 passing yards and 2133 rushing yards. That is 5th in the league in passing and 5th in the league in rushing. Basically, Falcons in the air and Panthers on the ground. Total offense - 3rd in league, between the Rams and Bucs. I lost 12 interceptions and fumbled 17 times losing 12 of them.

I am comfortable with those levels. If anything I could have raised the rushing yards. Oh, if only CW stayed healthy!
 

Defensive Line/Linebacker Hybrid defense. Some 3-4 and some 4-3 and less 4-2 than is ideal. KMack was worth every penny. Jarrett is a star no one knows about. Edmunds is still learning, but established himself as a leader. Trevathan held up. Enough star power in the Front Seven to justify a strong defensive rating.

Name/Games/Starts/Tackles/Sacks/Int/FF
Khalil Mack 14/13 47 12.5 1 6
Grady Jarrett 14/14 52 6 0 3
Leonard Williams 16/16 42 5 0 0
Jack Crawford (!) 16/11 35 6 1 1
Bruce Irvin 8/3 13 3.5 0 0
Derrick Shelby 7/3 10 0 0 0
Danny Shelton 13/1 21 0 0 0
Jordan Willis 16/1 20 1 0 0
Derek Rivers 6/0 2 1 0 0
LT Walton 4/0 2 0 0 0

Tremaine Edmunds 15/15 121 2 2 2
Danny Trevathan 16/16 102 2 2 1
De'Vondre Campbell 16/13 94 1.5 0 0
Kyle Emanuel 16/7 30 1 0 0
Mike Hull 8/1 9 0 0 0
Terrance Smith 7/0 22 1 0 0
Obo Okoronkwo No games. I kept him on IR even though the Rams activated him.

I needed 112 starts and got 114. So matched, with no shortage or perceptible overload.

Corner/Safety.

Marcus Peters 16/16 43 0 3 0
Richard Sherman 14/14 37 1 0 0
Desmond King 16/8 61 0 3 1
Pierre Desir (!) 16/12 79 0 1 2
Mackensie Alexander 15/6 43 4 0 0
Aaron Colvin 10/2 29 0 0 0

Adrian Amos 16/16 73 1 2 0
Justin Reid 16/12 88 0 3 1
Barry Church 11/11 38 1 1 0
Morgan Burnett 11/2 30 0 0 0
Isaiah Johnson 2/0 1 0 0 0

I needed 64 to 80 starts, and got 99, so I have to tampen down some of the results, since only one person on the field at any one time. Most of the lost playing time comes from Church (who was cut), Burnett, Colvin, and some from Alexander. On the other hand, I simulate better results on paper from Peters and Sherman, who are well-matched to play the exact same defensive schemes. Peters was misused by the Rams and Sherman was thrown away from every game. On this defense the offenses would have to have thrown towards Sherman more, so better results from Peters/Sherman and lower results from 4 names above balance out.

King was a star, despite the stat line. Reid is a star in the making.

Overall Defense.

I can't simulate total yards for defense like I can offense, so I look at tackles, sacks, and turnovers. Tackles can be misleading, but if you play well you will get a certain number of them, and I am happy with those numbers. Sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles tell you how dynamic the defense plays. I looked at pass defended as a vague somehow good thing, but am not sure how to use it other than as a check for the above.

I had 1144 total tackles, which is adjusted down, particularly in the secondary. Not only did Church/et. al. play less but the strong linebacker play means less plays bled through to the secondary. So less safety tackles, but they were there when needed. Call it 1050 total tackles which is in line with the league, both good and bad defenses. Edmunds and Campbell got less tackles at linebacker, cuz Trevathan, but who cares?

I had 49,5 sacks, adjusted down to 48. That is 7th in the league but 3rd place was 50, so it is a tight group. I had 19 interceptions, which stayed the same, good for 3rd in the league. I forced 17 fumbles good for 9th. Pass Defensed was also 9th.

I count 13 star or quality players on defense, and that is good. They are found at all three levels.

I simulate the defense as about 5th in the league. Better than Dallas and almost at Jax/Hou.

Special Teams. Short version. Punting was top 5. Kicking was bottom 5. Coverage was good. Returners were top half. Special teams helped a bit but did not hurt. A few missed field goals but overall a plus.

I gave up 12 interceptions and lost 12 fumbles. I intercepted 19 times and caused enough fumbles to take 12. Turnovers plus 7, which is 8th in the league.

Overall, I don't see any team weaknesses other than injuries, which managed to cover themselves for the season. 11-5 is 6th in the league. 12-4 is 3rd and 10-6 is 8th.  I would go with 11-5, with 11-4-1 being my second choice, but I care what all of you think.

 

 

11-5 or 10-6 seem accurate to me due to the Wentz injury. In 12 starts, I think you likely go 9-3 or 10-2 with Wentz. I think with the talent you have on defense, your rushing attack, and a solid group of weapons, you could steal a win or two during Hundley's 4 starts. I'll say 11-5.

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Congratulations to the following Bull for post-season honors.

Khalil Mack All-Pro 1st team edge/LB, Pro Bowl

Michael Dickson All-Pro 1st team punter, Pro Bowl

Desmond King All-Pro DB, 2nd team punt returner

Mike Pouncey Pro Bowl

 

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