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Mock v1B - The non-Kirk Cousins variable


paul-mac

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Ok, here's my new mock but this time it's based on the idea of NOT signing Kirk Cousins. This appears to be the more likely world we're in at this point.

 

Starting cap room: $35m

 

Traded: QB Trevor Siemian to the Falcons for a 5th round pick. Teams are going to highly value good backup QBs after seeing what happened with Nick Foles, so I think we can get a 5 for Siemian who projects as a high end NFL backup in the long run. 

 

Released RB CJ Anderson and OT Menelik Watson. This then gives us around $46m cap room, or around $40m when you remove the money we need to sign rookies.

 

Second round tenders for OL Matt Paradis and OLB Shaquil Barrett, cost $6m total leaves $34m cap room. I also think we'll bring back LB Todd Davis on a one-year deal for $2m, the coaches love him and Elway likes to keep it cheap at the LB position so with Marshall being paid healthily I think his partner in the middle will definitely be a cheaper option such as Todd Davis.

 

 

 

Free Agency

 

LB/S Su'a Cravens Redskins trade us Cravens and their 7th rounder for our 5th round pick. After the Siemian trade we're sitting with twelve draft picks including four 5th rounders, so for me it's clear that we're gonna probably add a veteran or two in trades and maybe trade some of the picks for 2019 picks. No way there's room for twelve rookies. We have been linked with trading for Cravens and I think he projects well as a LB in our scheme. Cravens is due $1m in 2018.

 

QB Case Keenum Some local Broncos sources are saying that if Denver does indeed miss out on Kirk Cousins, the backup option is to pair Keenum with a rookie. I think the trick is going to be to sign Keenum to a deal that's easy to get out of after the first year. Something like a 3 year deal with base salaries of $16m per year and a $9m signing bonus. That means a $19m cap charge but you can cut him after the first year and save $13m. That way we've got a decent insurance option if whoever we draft doesn't turn out to be the guy, but we can easily bail on this contract in a year's time. I'd actually prefer Sam Bradford or AJ McCarron to fill this role given that I view Bradford as a better QB and McCarron will be cheaper, but it seems the Broncos brass really want Keenum if they can't get Cousins.

 

CB Jeremy Lane Lane signs a one year, $4m deal. Elway likes to sign guys who have been cut by other teams because it means that they don't count against the compensatory pick formula. It's been reported that we'd like to add a 3rd corner in free agency.

 

WR Donte Moncrief Moncrief can get the exact same contract as Lane. WR on our roster is pretty much in the same state as corner, with two quality starters but not much depth behind them. I think we'd like to lock one up in FA.

 

OT La'Adrian Waddle Another one year, $4m prove it guy. 

 

RB Alfred Morris Our last $2m goes at the RB position. I can't see Elway wanting to go into the season with Devontae Booker as the most experienced back on the roster.

 

 

 

Draft

 

1. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

- Browns take Barkley, Giants take Darnold, Colts take Chubb, Browns take Allen... That leaves us the choice between Rosen and Mayfield. We've been showing a ton of interest in Baker Mayfield throughout this process and I don't think it's a smokescreen. If he's there at 5, and my gut feeling is he will be, then I think John Elway pulls the trigger.

2. Kolton Miller, OL, UCLA

- The 40th overall pick might be a slight reach but offensive linemen get pushed up the board due to scarcity in the same way that QBs do. I think Kolton fits what we'll probably be looking for, someone who can compete with Connor McGovern to start at Left Guard, but also is a potential future option at Tackle if La'Adrian Waddle fails to play well or Bolles gets hurt.

3a. Dorrance Armstrong Jr, OLB, Kansas

- Shaq Barrett and Shane Ray in contract years, chances are only one of them will stick around. Elway believes you can never have too many pass rushers.

3b. Dalton Schultz, TE, Stanford

- Jake Butt and Jeff Heuerman are both on the roster as mid round tight end pickups who haven't shown much. Both could potentially play their way into the starting role but haven't done so yet. I'd like to see those guys paired with another young guy in a true open competition.

4a. Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State

- There's a good chance that one if not both of Sanders and Thomas will be gone in 2019, Donte Moncrief is on a one year deal and we haven't seen anything from Carlos Henderson yet. All of this points to a mid-round pick being used on a developmental wideout. Plus having Gary Kubiak back in the war room means we are surely due a CSU Ram at some point.

4b. Jamarcus King, CB, South Carolina

- Roby on his 5th year option, Lane on a 1 year deal and Langley unproven. CB, like WR, will likely be targeted in the middle rounds.

 

We then have three 5ths, a 6th and two 7ths but I'm not going to bother mocking specific players there. I'd imagine one or two of them will get traded for a pick next year, we might bring in a QB to compete with Lynch and Kelly for the 3rd QB position, a RB to compete with De'Angelo Henderson to be the 3rd RB, a kick return guy since McKenzie didn't work out and maybe some LB depth.

 

Roster

QB: Case Keenum, Baker Mayfield, Paxton Lynch

RB: Alfred Morris, Devontae Booker, DeAngelo Henderson

FB: Andy Janovich

WR: Demaryius Thomas, Carlos Henderson

WR: Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Gallup

Slot: Donte Moncrief

TE: Jake Butt, Jeff Heuerman, Dalton Schultz

LT: Garrett Bolles

LG: Kolton Miller, Max Garcia

C: Matthew Paradis, JJ Dielman

RG: Ronald Leary, Connor McGovern

RT: La'Adrian Waddle, Cyrus Kouandjio

 

DE: Derek Wolfe, Adam Gotsis

NT: Domata Peko, Zach Kerr, Kyle Peko

DE: Shelby Harris, Demarcus Walker

OLB: Von Miller, Dorrance Armstrong Jr

ILB: Brandon Marshall, Su'a Cravens

ILB: Todd Davis, Zaire Anderson

OLB: Shaq Barrett, Shane Ray

CB: Chris Harris Jr, Brendan Langley

CB: Bradley Roby, Jamarcus King

Nickel: Jeremy Lane

FS: Justin Simmons, Jamal Carter

SS: Darian Stewart, Will Parks

 

K: Brandon McManus

P: Riley Dixon

LS: Casey Kreiter

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I still think you have to go with AnAngry and move back even if it's Keenum.  We have to fix our O-Line more than we need to fix our QB IMO.

If we stay at 6, it's Q. Nelson and Mason Rudolph in Rnd2.

There is so much hype around these QB's in the draft and I just don't get it.  

 

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What about Jeremy hill hes a big back and was nasty when cincys line was good low mileage? I'm not opposed to keenum and mayfield I alluded to them both coming from a spread. I also think they both have a high football IQ. I'm just not in love with Koltom Miller.

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12 minutes ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Case Keenum + Baker Mayfield is probably the very worst thing that could happen this offseason. I call this mock the nightmare scenario. 

No just Mayfield and a a Luke Falk would be the worse. Or sam Bradford. 

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1 minute ago, BaldyBronco said:

If it's Keenum, don't we go in to training camp with an "OPEN Competition" for the starting job?  Do we really sign him as the future or a stop gap?  This is a nightmare as it will be the last two years all over again.

Who’s the competition?  Kelly and Lynch?

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5 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

Yes.  And Mayfield.  Am I missing something that Keenum really is not a proven commodity?

Most of us would agree.  Issue is that beat reporters indicate if we spend for Keenum Elway won’t draft a rookie QB 1.5 no matter what.   A big no there. 

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1 minute ago, BaldyBronco said:

I think spending 19MM on Keenum is as a big a risk as giving that money to any QB, including cousins.  We need to start from the ground up.  OL or AnANgryAmerican to me is the very best option.

I like @AnAngryAmerican's passion and intangibles but i think he's a bit of a reach at this stage of his career.

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@AnAngryAmerican is by far the best scenario I have seen.  That said.  I just cannot get behind giving Cousins the money that effectively says he is better than all but 3 or 4 QBs in the NFL.  It's too big a risk to mortgage our future on one player when we have so many glaring holes.

I am of the opinion we sign Nate Solder and draft Q Nelson. Draft the QB who is left in the 2nd Round and or come back in to the first round if someone falls as we have the capital.

 

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16 minutes ago, BaldyBronco said:

@AnAngryAmerican is by far the best scenario I have seen.  That said.  I just cannot get behind giving Cousins the money that effectively says he is better than all but 3 or 4 QBs in the NFL.  It's too big a risk to mortgage our future on one player when we have so many glaring holes.

I am of the opinion we sign Nate Solder and draft Q Nelson. Draft the QB who is left in the 2nd Round and or come back in to the first round if someone falls as we have the capital.

 

Well, the other part you have to consider - coming to DEN, @AnAngryAmerican would have to play for Vance Joseph, and the current regime in Dove Valley.  Few things in life are a given, but no way he'd ever do that, even to play for DEN.   O.o

P.S.  Welcome aboard, BTW.  The AAA stuff is a joke, in case the tone is being missed.

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