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Shift in offensive strategy?


Johnny Nix

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On ‎8‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 1:38 PM, MrDrew said:

Because the most NFL fans are casual, the pass is more exciting and sells tickets, and the QB gets credit for the rest of the team's work, we're not going to see a shift anytime soon.  Unless we see a clone army of Barry Sanders take over the NFL, and excite the general public, people aren't going to look at the running game the same way they used to. 

You think the NFL teams schemes are targeting viewers who like passing more? Or do you think its a combination of the rules are designed to get more ratings and the ratings are due to passing offenses? 

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If I had to guess, it would involve more dynamic pre-snap positioning, specifically, the 5 off-line guys.  Maybe a return of the wingback, a modified pistol, or more use of the space between what we think of as traditional TE and slot positioning.

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It'll never be a running league (again?), but I don't think being able to run the ball has lost any importance. Teams with good OL that can dominate smaller fronts (Dallas, Oakland, Tennesee, etc.) are having a lot of success. I think the league's emphasis on OL will continue, but RB will regain value as backs capable of being a threat in the run and pass game continue to emerge.

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On 03/08/2017 at 0:21 AM, Kiwibrown said:

A group of small fast WR's running crossing patterns and other combination routes 5 yards deep for easy yards. 

A lot of teams have drafted multiple scat receiver types. Panthers this year with McCaffery and their 2nd round pick.

Beasley and Switzer for the Cowboys. 

New England is all about it. 

The Browns tried but didn't know how to make it work. 

Was going to say this. Return of the 5'10" wiz kids :)

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On 8/3/2017 at 0:38 PM, MrDrew said:

Because the most NFL fans are casual, the pass is more exciting and sells tickets, and the QB gets credit for the rest of the team's work, we're not going to see a shift anytime soon.  Unless we see a clone army of Barry Sanders take over the NFL, and excite the general public, people aren't going to look at the running game the same way they used to. 

Pass may be more exciting for casuals, but a well oiled passing machine is beautiful.  A perfect two minute offense is a work of art.  

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The reason people are getting smaller and faster is because the majority of colleges are trending towards spread/uptempo/read option style offenses, and those end up being the kind of players most valuable to that system... College ball is still the NFL's primary source of players, so it stands to reason that college trends are going to impact the NFL game, even if it's only via the type of players college ball is selecting.

More specifically, the one big trend I think is happening is mobile QBs. Now granted, in the NFL the QBs themselves won't be used as primary runners for health/longevity reasons, but more and more the league is drifting away from "statue" pocket only QBs.... which in turn can force a defense to waste a defender purely to spy on the QB, which in turn even further opens up the passing game by reducing people in coverage.

If I had to pick a second trend I've noticed, it's "tweener" "TE"/WR guys (who are basically used entirely like jumbo WRs)... You're seeing bigger and bigger dudes with the athleticism to get downfield, but also with the size to be major blocking mismatches vs corners/safeties on the edges. A bit ironic that one of the smallest positions on the field in WR, is probably the only one to see people get bigger.

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4 hours ago, Epyon said:

The reason people are getting smaller and faster is because the majority of colleges are trending towards spread/uptempo/read option style offenses, and those end up being the kind of players most valuable to that system... College ball is still the NFL's primary source of players, so it stands to reason that college trends are going to impact the NFL game, even if it's only via the type of players college ball is selecting.

More specifically, the one big trend I think is happening is mobile QBs. Now granted, in the NFL the QBs themselves won't be used as primary runners for health/longevity reasons, but more and more the league is drifting away from "statue" pocket only QBs.... which in turn can force a defense to waste a defender purely to spy on the QB, which in turn even further opens up the passing game by reducing people in coverage.

If I had to pick a second trend I've noticed, it's "tweener" "TE"/WR guys (who are basically used entirely like jumbo WRs)... You're seeing bigger and bigger dudes with the athleticism to get downfield, but also with the size to be major blocking mismatches vs corners/safeties on the edges. A bit ironic that one of the smallest positions on the field in WR, is probably the only one to see people get bigger.

I'd have said the dawn of the mobile QB has already come, and perhaps gone? It was only a few years ago that defenses were coming to terms with the Kaeperniks, Newtons, Vicks etc. For a time, it was looking like the next best thing, then Manning came along and destroyed the league. Then Brady won two super bowls. Matt Ryan breaks records etc. So, I think it's still there, just hasn't caught on like some thought it would. 

I'm one of them, I envisioned a time (to my dread) where the league would become a read option/QB run fest. Thank god for the pocket statues :)

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4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I'd have said the dawn of the mobile QB has already come, and perhaps gone? It was only a few years ago that defenses were coming to terms with the Kaeperniks, Newtons, Vicks etc. For a time, it was looking like the next best thing, then Manning came along and destroyed the league. Then Brady won two super bowls. Matt Ryan breaks records etc. So, I think it's still there, just hasn't caught on like some thought it would. 

I'm one of them, I envisioned a time (to my dread) where the league would become a read option/QB run fest. Thank god for the pocket statues :)

You can't outrun the ball, so while QBs may generally become more mobile, I don't ever see the elite QBs becoming run first QBs.  

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14 hours ago, johndeere1707 said:

I still believe we could see a shift back to a heavy running league again. Someone will figure out a way to counter these passing defenses 

Runs are not the only thing that can balance out a certain type of passing. More likely, a different type of passing can and will overthrow the current form of passing. Teams were utilizing outside receivers for the majority of the past ten years, recently they have utilized slots/TE's more. Not sure what is coming next: full on receiving backs (I.e. Riddick), WR tight-ends (I.e. Reed), perhaps intermediate focused passing, perhaps deep passing.

 

i don't think it will be runs because coaches realize it's a game of space. If you run an ISO out of the I-formation, you're putting 8 blockers on ~9  defenders. Let's say each blocker has a 75% chance of holding his block. You are rolling the dice that you can hit on 75% 8 times to give your halfback a good hole. He then still has 1 defender left to make miss for there to be a big play. (This is ignoring things like OL getting to the second level and blocking a second man, and a safety staying deep, for simplicity).

On the flip side, if a pass is thrown to an outside receiver in a doubles formation, you're usually looking at 2 wr's vs 2 cb's. The wr who doesn't catch the ball blocks his cb, and boom, you're already guaranteed a 1-on-1 matchup. (The other wr might even pick the other cb with his block.) It's 8 times easier than the iso run. So for this reason among others, it's not advantageous to run the ball anymore for the majority of the game.

 

 

all that said, I do find the ground-and-pound style of play sooooooo much more fun to watch than this chicken-crap style of today. Three yard pass to a slot who gains three yac before running out of bounds. Repeat ten times that drive. Repeat for every drive of game. Repeat for every game of year. Makes me want to vomit.

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