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The 2018 Kirk Cousins Megathread

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31 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

While I often agree with that sentiment, the reason I posted it was because the negativity toward Cousins among a lot of our fanbase has gone a little too far.  This week's game against Philadelphia is going to be a defining moment for him, IMO.  He played well against the Giants, but that was expected because the Giants are a struggling team.  If he can't get it done at home against a banged up Eagles team, I think we are looking at what will become a mediocre season and I'll be ready to call him a "bust" of a free agent acquisition.  We shall see.

I think the next two weeks really. We expect the team to play well at home but can they play well in consecutive games, and can they go to Detroit against a rival that is playing well and win? For me to have any faith in Cousins this year, he needs to string some wins together against quality teams, especially on the road where the defense doesn’t seem to play as sharp.

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On 2019-10-09 at 8:12 AM, vikingsrule said:

What exactly does above expectation mean and how much does it have to do with throwing to two top 15 WRs who both have a knack for making difficult catches.

Completion percentage over expectation has to do with expected completion percentage, which has to do with depth of target, whether the target is open or not (separation from nearest defenders), whether the QB is under pressure or not (separation from nearest pass rusher), etc. Nothing to do with target quality (Diggs/Thielen being good WRs), so having a high CPOE would in part reflect WR performance exceeding those expectations (fewer drops, more contested catches, deep catches, etc). 

Cousins doesn't throw especially deep on average, and he has the lowest percentage of throws targeting tight windows (what NextGen stats called Aggressiveness) -- though this reflects WRs being wide open due to scheme / route running as much as a QB being smart or overly cautious.  I think the stat in Cousins' case reflects a lot of throws under pressure, a lot of accurate throws, and a low drop rate (Diggs IIRC is the only Vikings receiver with a drop this year). 

Cousins is now 3rd in CPOE. Top 5 for full time starters is Wilson, Prescott, Cousins, Ryan, Carr. Bottom 5 is Goff, Mayfield, Roethlisberger, Newton and Rosen.

Other Cousins stats, through 6 games: 

  • 7th best passing grade
  • 13th best overall grade for QBs
  • 4th in YPA
  • 4th in ANY/A
  • 3rd best passer rating
  • 17th best QBR
  • 2nd in adjusted comp %
  • Longest average time to throw 
  • 3rd highest % dropbacks under pressure
  • 2nd in passer rating on deep attempts
  • 4th highest play action percentage
  • 3rd best passer rating off play action
  • 6th best passer rating with no play action
  • 4th best passer rating when clean
  • 8th best passer rating under pressure

Summing that up: 

He’s been accurate with and without pressure, +/- play action, on throws deep and short. He sees a lot of pressure but much of that is due to the scheme (high PA percentage, slow developing plays). His overall grade and EPA (QBR) are dragged down by the fumbles.

If he'd played better in GB and/or Chicago he'd be leading the NFL in a few passing stats right now, and the Vikings would have 5 or 6 wins. 

Even with those 2 disasters, he's been a borderline top 10 QB this year (albeit in a relatively down year for QB play so far). 

If Cousins can avoid further disasters and win a couple of big games on the road as the season wears on, this will eventually start to be recognized as a turnaround year for him. 

Edited by Krauser

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Going way off the ledge with this one; mainly out of curiousity: 

If Cousins wins the NFL MVP, could he be considered as a realistic candidate for “Comeback Player of the Year”? 
 

 

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54 minutes ago, Torchezim said:

Going way off the ledge with this one; mainly out of curiousity: 

If Cousins wins the NFL MVP, could he be considered as a realistic candidate for “Comeback Player of the Year”? 
 

 

I wouldn’t think so. What Is he coming back from? Progress does not equal coming back.

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5 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

I wouldn’t think so. What Is he coming back from? Progress does not equal coming back.

That’s why I was asking.  I didn’t know you had to have been injured in order to win it. 
 

I assumed you could win if you were always known as subpar or worst, that you could win the MVP if you completely turned it around and reached that level of production. 
 

Progress should have a big influence.  Like if Tannehill did the same he would probably win it. Isn’t that why Kurt Warner won it? I think it certainly is coming back in Cousin’s case. 
 

But like I said, I was just curious. 

Edited by Torchezim

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2 minutes ago, Torchezim said:

That’s why I was asking.  I didn’t know you had to have been injured in order to win it. 
 

I assumed you could win if you were always known as subpar or worst, that you could win the MVP if you completely turned it around and reached that level of production. 
 

Progress should have a big influence.  Like if Tannehill did the same he would probably win it. Isn’t that why Kurt Warner won it? I think it certainly is coming back in Cousin’s case. 
 

But like I said, I was just curious. 

Cousins never lost his job though. He’s been a regular 16 game starter for years now. Seems they may give consideration for players who were benched and found their way back into the starting lineup. 

I honestly don’t know who else would be in consideration this year.

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1 hour ago, vikingsrule said:

I honestly don’t know who else would be in consideration this year.

Everson Griffen would be one. He’s playing almost as well as he did at his 2017 peak, though the sack numbers have lagged the hits and hurries.

Travis Frederick came back from Guillain-Barré syndrome, though from what I’ve seen he hasn’t been back to his All Pro level of play. 

Garoppolo is probably the favorite especially if the Niners end up with one of the best records in the league. 

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That Bears game wasn't a good one but for me that Packers match was the one which definitely was disappointing. Kirk did throw some interceptions last year but he didn't have any brainfarts in End Zone last year...which is why that Interception in the end vs Packers for me was very baffling. But he has definitely looked fantastic in last 2 games.. hoping he can maintain the consistency

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Kirk has been very good at home, but on the road he's been less than stellar.

Detroit will be a test. I think people will actually start to believe in us and Kirk if we can beat them.

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3 minutes ago, SteelKing728 said:

Kirk has been very good at home, but on the road he's been less than stellar.

Maybe his best 2 games last year were on the road: the comeback at Lambeau and the shootout at the Rams. He had some bad home games too, Buffalo and Chicago at least. 

This year, the road Giants game was probably his best aside from the home Eagles game. 

He was terrible at Chicago and Green Bay this year but I wouldn’t bet on that being a trend. 

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2 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Maybe his best 2 games last year were on the road: the comeback at Lambeau and the shootout at the Rams. He had some bad home games too, Buffalo and Chicago at least. 

This year, the road Giants game was probably his best aside from the home Eagles game. 

He was terrible at Chicago and Green Bay this year but I wouldn’t bet on that being a trend. 

Yeah, but the Giants defense is atrocious.

I might be overrating the Lions defense though.

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4 hours ago, upriser7 said:

That Bears game wasn't a good one but for me that Packers match was the one which definitely was disappointing. Kirk did throw some interceptions last year but he didn't have any brainfarts in End Zone last year...which is why that Interception in the end vs Packers for me was very baffling. But he has definitely looked fantastic in last 2 games.. hoping he can maintain the consistency

There was DPI on that last play that wasn't called. Refs showed up for Green Bay a few times this season.

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