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The 2018 Kirk Cousins Megathread


Heimdallr

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2 hours ago, wcblack34 said:

I don't think it's plain at all. Cousins hasn't led a game winning drive all season long. Some guys win when the chips are down. Some just cash in. 

Cousins deserves some criticism, but the game winning drives stat isn't a strong argument against him.

Cousins did lead a 4Q comeback this year, where he put up 200 yards passing and 3 TDs to tie the game at Lambeau -- probably the biggest late game comeback in recent Vikings history. He followed that up in OT by what could've been 2 game winning drives, but Carlson missed two FGs, including a 35 yarder, that would've won it.

Most of the Vikings losses this year weren't even close heading into the 4th quarter. They trailed the Bills 27-0, the Rams 38-28, the Saints 27-13, the Bears 14-3, and the Patriots 24-10. The only game of those they had a chance to tie was the Rams, where Cousins fumbled in the last minute at midfield. Vikings have had a few similar fumbles on last minute drives with a chance to tie under Zimmer, including Bridgewater twice in 2015 (Broncos, Cards) and Thielen in 2017 (Lions).

The only other game where Cousins could've been expected to come back was in Seattle, where they trailed 6-0 in the goal-to-go situation early in the 4th quarter, and 6-0 attempting the FG (blocked illegally by Wagner) a few minutes later, and 14-0 when Cousins fumbled, returned for a TD.

So he's 1 for 3 in opportunities this year, which isn't great but not terrible either.

Career wise, Cousins has 9 4th quarter comebacks and 12 game winning drives, in 72 starts.

Keenum by comparison has 6 4QC and 10 GWD, in 53 starts. That's basically the same rate as Cousins on both of those numbers. 

Last year, Keenum was credited for game winning drives in these games:

  • FG with 12 seconds left to beat the Bears 20-17. Drive started at the Bears 28 after an INT by Harrison Smith, covered 20 yards from there. Keenum went 1/1 for 10 yards, McKinnon had 4 carries, and the Bears took a defensive holding penalty on a 3rd down when they got a sack.
  • TD with 14:15 remaining in the 4Q against the Rams, to go up 14-7 (final score 21-7). Drive started at the Vikings 29, consisted of 6 run plays including Murray gaining 25, and 5 short completions by Keenum (longest 8 yards), the biggest being a 3rd and 4 conversion to Rudolph in the red zone that set up Murray's TD.
  • TD pass to Rudolph with 14:56 remaining in the 4Q against the Falcons, to go up 14-9 (also the final score). 89 yard drive with 6 completions and 9 runs including 4 carries in a row by Murray from the Falcons 24 to the 6, which set up the TD. This was a 4QC as well as a GWD.
  • TD pass to Diggs to beat the Saints, the Minneapolis Miracle

The only one of those games that could be considered clutch QB play was the Miracle, and I'm not sure that wasn't as much luck as moxie or skill on Keenum's part. Kicking a FG after a turnover inside the opposition's 30 in a tied game, and going ahead in a tied (Rams) and a close (Falcons) game with over 14 minutes left isn't exactly the QB carrying the team to victory -- in both cases, the defense had to make multiple stops to hold the lead. 

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Not to mention the Vikings got to play Hundley twice last year.  And the Browns, the Bengals, a last place Bear team twice.  If our D held Rams to 7 points this year, Carlson kicks the Lambeau field goal,.officials penalize Seahawks on the field goal, we might have 11 wins going into the final game and nobody would be complaining about Cousins.  Lots of things went the Vikings way last year.  Little has went right this year.  There's enough scapegoats to go around.  Sometimes it's just dumb luck.

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59 minutes ago, since72 said:

Not to mention the Vikings got to play Hundley twice last year.  And the Browns, the Bengals, a last place Bear team twice.  If our D held Rams to 7 points this year, Carlson kicks the Lambeau field goal,.officials penalize Seahawks on the field goal, we might have 11 wins going into the final game and nobody would be complaining about Cousins.  Lots of things went the Vikings way last year.  Little has went right this year.  There's enough scapegoats to go around.  Sometimes it's just dumb luck.

grrrrr on those field goals, grrrr...

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4th Quarter comebacks is another stat which can be pretty misleading, especially if you look at small sample size. Cousins doesn't have any 4th Q comebacks this season (probably could have 1 if our kicker didn't mess up) but he also is the same guy who led the league in 4th quarter comebacks last season.If you are looking at 4th quarter comebacks, atleast look at larger sample size.

No.of 4th Q comebacks in career:

Rodgers - 14 in 164 games (8.5%)

Cousins - 9 in 77 games (11.7%)

Brees   -   34 in 264 games ( 12.8%)

Brady   - 35 in 268 games (13%)

Stafford - 26 in 140 games (18.6%)

 

So, what does it say? Nothing much...it depends a lot on context

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19 hours ago, upriser7 said:

4th Quarter comebacks is another stat which can be pretty misleading, especially if you look at small sample size. Cousins doesn't have any 4th Q comebacks this season (probably could have 1 if our kicker didn't mess up) but he also is the same guy who led the league in 4th quarter comebacks last season.If you are looking at 4th quarter comebacks, atleast look at larger sample size.

No.of 4th Q comebacks in career:

Rodgers - 14 in 164 games (8.5%)

Cousins - 9 in 77 games (11.7%)

Brees   -   34 in 264 games ( 12.8%)

Brady   - 35 in 268 games (13%)

Stafford - 26 in 140 games (18.6%)

 

So, what does it say? Nothing much...it depends a lot on context

If it's up for a vote...I cast my ballot for not getting in the position where the team has to come from behind!!!

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Cousins outside of the fumbles and pick-sixes wasn't that bad (cough-cough).  Plays rarely had time to develop.  Improving the O-line will make a huge difference.  the Bears came out of nowhere this year to take a division we thought was ours.  How do we ignite a passion like that here?  Cousins tried to be the firey guy but he isn't.  Really weird season.

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On ‎12‎/‎25‎/‎2018 at 2:43 PM, upriser7 said:

4th Quarter comebacks is another stat which can be pretty misleading, especially if you look at small sample size. Cousins doesn't have any 4th Q comebacks this season (probably could have 1 if our kicker didn't mess up) but he also is the same guy who led the league in 4th quarter comebacks last season.If you are looking at 4th quarter comebacks, atleast look at larger sample size.

No.of 4th Q comebacks in career:

Rodgers - 14 in 164 games (8.5%)

Cousins - 9 in 77 games (11.7%)

Brees   -   34 in 264 games ( 12.8%)

Brady   - 35 in 268 games (13%)

Stafford - 26 in 140 games (18.6%)

 

So, what does it say? Nothing much...it depends a lot on context

Does this take into account if the QB led to a score then the defense gave it right back up to lose the game? Or also if the team happens to frequently be ahead in the 4th quarter?

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