Watching Keenum, Bradford, and Bridgewater

[vike daddy]

Arizona coach Steve Wilks: “We’re pushing everybody to start. I’ve stated this several times: Sam Bradford is our starter. We gotta go out there with 11 guys and Sam’s going to be the first guy out there. But everybody’s fighting for a position, so I’m not going to hold Josh Rosen back at all. I want guys competing, I want guys fighting for a starting job. Whoever ends up winning the position, that’s who’s going to end up playing.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/05/11/steve-wilks-sam-bradford-is-the-starter-but-josh-rosen-wont-be-held-back/

[vike daddy]

Denver coach Vance Joseph: “I think for Paxton and our football team it’s been a weight off all of our backs to have a starting quarterback and have everyone’s role defined from Day . So for Paxton, he can relax and get better each day and not worry about a competition. I think for Paxton being around Case also — I mean, Case has been through some ups and downs in his career, so he can learn from Case on how to handle those things. It takes time to be an NFL quarterback. You would hope with Case being here, he can sit back and relax and get better as a quarterback and not worry about being the guy right now and just compete to be our backup.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/05/13/vance-joseph-paxton-lynch-can-relax-learn-from-case-keenum/

[wcblack34]

37 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

Denver coach Vance Joseph: “I think for Paxton and our football team it’s been a weight off all of our backs to have a starting quarterback and have everyone’s role defined from Day . So for Paxton, he can relax and get better each day and not worry about a competition. I think for Paxton being around Case also — I mean, Case has been through some ups and downs in his career, so he can learn from Case on how to handle those things. It takes time to be an NFL quarterback. You would hope with Case being here, he can sit back and relax and get better as a quarterback and not worry about being the guy right now and just compete to be our backup.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/05/13/vance-joseph-paxton-lynch-can-relax-learn-from-case-keenum/

Lynch is not good. 

[SteelKing728]

Bridgewater -- projected to fetch a seventh-rounder here -- has incentives in his contract that could turn his compensatory value into a fifth-rounder if he has a strong 2018 season.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000933360/article/projecting-compensatory-picks-for-2019-nfl-draft

This is interesting and I never saw that before. It may just give us more reason to root on for Bridgewater. I'd gladly take a 5th round pick over a 7th, especially since we don't currently own a 5 in the upcoming draft!

[Cearbhall]

On 5/19/2018 at 2:49 AM, SteelKing728 said:

Bridgewater -- projected to fetch a seventh-rounder here -- has incentives in his contract that could turn his compensatory value into a fifth-rounder if he has a strong 2018 season.

That article has zero credibility. I would advise you all to not waste time with it and also look upon anything written by Lance Zierlein in the future with a skeptical eye.

He lists Brandon Fusco as one of our losses this year. If that isn't brutal enough, he suggests that Teddy's compensatory value may go up from a 7th round pick to a 5th round pick based on him hitting incentives. Incentives are not something that is known to change the compensatory value; they have been excluded from the compensatory formula.

[SteelKing728]

8 hours ago, Cearbhall said:

That article has zero credibility. I would advise you all to not waste time with it and also look upon anything written by Lance Zierlein in the future with a skeptical eye.

He lists Brandon Fusco as one of our losses this year. If that isn't brutal enough, he suggests that Teddy's compensatory value may go up from a 7th round pick to a 5th round pick based on him hitting incentives. Incentives are not something that is known to change the compensatory value; they have been excluded from the compensatory formula.

I didn't know that incentives had no impact on Compensatory picks. Thanks man!

[Klomp]

18 hours ago, Cearbhall said:

If that isn't brutal enough, he suggests that Teddy's compensatory value may go up from a 7th round pick to a 5th round pick based on him hitting incentives. Incentives are not something that is known to change the compensatory value; they have been excluded from the compensatory formula.

While comp values aren't technically based on incentives, playing time is factored into the equation. And up to 72% of Teddy's incentives are based solely on playing time, with the rest based on on-field performance.

 

[whitehops]

if teddy is cut before the regular season (which is a definite possibility), does that impact the comp pick?

[SemperFeist]

49 minutes ago, whitehops said:

if teddy is cut before the regular season (which is a definite possibility), does that impact the comp pick?

More than likely

[vikingsrule]

2 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

More than likely

I wouldn't think that it should. Performance usually isn't factored into the equation.

[whitehops]

so in this year's NFL Top 100 Players list, Cousins was ranked 94th and Keenum was ranked 51st. 

 

looks like we downgraded at the position 

[SemperFeist]

10 hours ago, vikingsrule said:

I wouldn't think that it should. Performance usually isn't factored into the equation.

But playing time is. And the majority of Bridgewater’s contract is tied to playing time. 

Edited May 22, 2018 by SemperFeist

[Cearbhall]

14 hours ago, whitehops said:

if teddy is cut before the regular season (which is a definite possibility), does that impact the comp pick?

Yes, players cut before week 10 of the regular season will not count in the compensatory formula. If Teddy is cut before the regular season he would not count as a net loss.

If nothing else changes (other qualifying losses all stick with their team and the Vikings two qualifying compensatory additions stick with the Vikings) the Vikings would still get 4 compensatory picks but it would be 3, 7, 7, 7 instead of 3, 6, 7, 7. 

Looking at the Vikings qualifying losses, Teddy may be the most likely to not stick but I think that if he does not stick with the Jets they are more likely to trade him than cut him. Teddy's starting experience and positive attitude make him a great backup for $5M. There are teams that would give a lower round pick for that. I could see one of the two DTs that Seattle signed not sticking with them. Brock's entire contract is guaranteed so it would be a huge surprise to see him not stick with the Broncos. Case Keenum is even more of a lock to stick with the Broncos.

As far as the Vikings qualifying gains, there is as close to zero as possible chance of Cousins being released before week 10. I would be completely shocked if Richardson doesn't stick around through week ten. It would take him doing something very boneheaded for the team to cut him.

I do think that the Vikings are at risk of one of their qualifying losses not sticking with the team they signed with but think the most likely way that happens is Seattle picking one of the DTs and letting the other go. There is a smaller chance of two of the Vikings qualifying losses being cut before week 10. That would hurt more as it it would cost the team a compensatory pick.

 

[Krauser]

3 hours ago, Cearbhall said:

Yes, players cut before week 10 of the regular season will not count in the compensatory formula. If Teddy is cut before the regular season he would not count as a net loss.

If nothing else changes (other qualifying losses all stick with their team and the Vikings two qualifying compensatory additions stick with the Vikings) the Vikings would still get 4 compensatory picks but it would be 3, 7, 7, 7 instead of 3, 6, 7, 7. 

OverTheCap says Teddy at $5.5M APY (before incentives, not being cut) would qualify as a 6th, not a 7th: https://overthecap.com/draft/

That would be the highest 6th comp pick too, not close to dropping low enough on the list to earn only a 7th. 

Here's their cancellation chart: https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

[Krauser]

23 hours ago, Klomp said:

While comp values aren't technically based on incentives, playing time is factored into the equation. And up to 72% of Teddy's incentives are based solely on playing time, with the rest based on on-field performance.

 

Playing time is factored into the comp pick formula somehow, but not the money earned as incentives for playing time. The contract value considered is the just the base contract before incentives. 

Having said that, if someone above Teddy on the list ranking the value of comp picks doesn't play at all, and Teddy somehow starts 16 games (not going to happen but just hypothetically), he might bump up the list a little and be worth a somewhat higher pick. That increase in value wouldn't correspond to the value of the incentives, as if they were part of the contract in the first place, but there would be some increase. 

Conversely if Shamar Stephen (currently projected to be 32nd on the list of 32 comp picks) is typically a healthy scratch for the Seahawks and someone a little lower down on that list, currently not earning a comp pick at all (say Blaine Gabbert who got $2M to Stephen's $2.1M), plays a lot, Gabbert might bump up high enough that Stephen doesn't earn a pick while Gabbert does.

The point is that none of this is locked in yet, and won't be until the end of the season. 

Here's OTC's analysis of how the comp pick system works in general: https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/

Edited May 22, 2018 by Krauser