Watching Keenum, Bradford, and Bridgewater

[Cearbhall]

1 hour ago, Krauser said:

OverTheCap says Teddy at $5.5M APY (before incentives, not being cut) would qualify as a 6th, not a 7th: https://overthecap.com/draft/

That would be the highest 6th comp pick too, not close to dropping low enough on the list to earn only a 7th. 

Here's their cancellation chart: https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

Correct. I was saying that the team would get 3, 6, 7,  7 with Teddy counting. If he is cut without him counting I was saying the team would get 3, 7, 7, 7 if nothing else changed. In the first scenario Teddy is the sixth that is missing in the second scenario that has him not sticking.

[Klomp]

2 hours ago, Krauser said:

Playing time is factored into the comp pick formula somehow, but not the money earned as incentives for playing time. The contract value considered is the just the base contract before incentives. 

Right, but if he earned the incentives for playing time, one could assume he's playing enough (and performing well enough) to affect the comp pick formula. Snap counts and production ARE factored into it.

[Klomp]

Jets QB room getting a little lighter

 

[swede700]

37 minutes ago, Klomp said:

Jets QB room getting a little lighter

 

Good for him, anyway....he had zero chance of unseating any of the ones in front of him.  

[Krauser]

8 hours ago, Cearbhall said:

Correct. I was saying that the team would get 3, 6, 7,  7 with Teddy counting. If he is cut without him counting I was saying the team would get 3, 7, 7, 7 if nothing else changed. In the first scenario Teddy is the sixth that is missing in the second scenario that has him not sticking.

Ah OK, you mean if Teddy doesn't count they lose the 6th for him but then they could get back to the max of four comp picks by earning a 7th for Tom Johnson. 

 

8 hours ago, Klomp said:

Right, but if he earned the incentives for playing time, one could assume he's playing enough (and performing well enough) to affect the comp pick formula. Snap counts and production ARE factored into it.

I think we're saying the same thing here. Playing time is factored in.

But the value of incentives is not, which is the point that was being (incorrectly) made by Zierlein in the article @SteelKing728 quoted. 

Bridgewater's contract is worth $5.5M and there's reportedly another $9M he could earn in incentives. But he'll never be considered a $14M contract value in the comp pick formula, even if he earns that full amount. The maximum would be a small boost from his current value as an early 6th based on playing time -- in other words, maybe he could be worth a 5th. 

Ironically, Zierlein comes to that same conclusion, that Bridgewater could be worth up to a 5th in the comp pick formula, he just states the wrong reasoning for it (the value of incentives in his contract is not relevant, but playing time and production as measured by postseason awards could factor in). 

[whitehops]

i'm getting a little off topic here but i still can't believe that tramaine brock got a $3,000,000 fully guaranteed deal from denver and that nets us a comp pick. 

 

shamar stephen and tom johnson were 2/3 of our DT rotation last year and they both got less than $3 mill, while brock was our 5th CB and pretty much just a special teams player. not complaining obviously, just loving that we're guaranteed four comp picks and still got a quality WR3 in kendall wright. 

[Cearbhall]

9 hours ago, whitehops said:

just loving that we're guaranteed four comp picks

Careful. We are not guaranteed four comp picks. If Teddy gets cut and one of the DTs in Seattle gets cut the Vikings will only get three comp picks (3, 7, 7). I would say that the Vikings are in good shape for getting four comp picks but it is far from guaranteed. While Brock has a guaranteed contract, it is just a one year deal. He may not count in the compensatory formula if he is injured before the season starts and is on IR for every game of the one year contract. (See Angelo Crowell not being factored into the 2010 compensatory pick formula). For that matter, Stephen and Tom Johnson are one one year deals too and may end up on IR before the season.

[vike daddy]

 It hasn’t taken long for Case Keenum to win over his new teammates. During the second week of spring drills last month, the Denver Broncos quarterback rented a suite for a Colorado Avalanche playoff game against the Nashville Predators. He invited all of Denver’s offensive players, and about 20 showed up.

https://www.twincities.com/2018/05/22/ex-vikings-qb-case-keenum-excited-about-being-the-guy-in-denver/

[Klomp]

7 hours ago, vike daddy said:

 It hasn’t taken long for Case Keenum to win over his new teammates. During the second week of spring drills last month, the Denver Broncos quarterback rented a suite for a Colorado Avalanche playoff game against the Nashville Predators. He invited all of Denver’s offensive players, and about 20 showed up.

https://www.twincities.com/2018/05/22/ex-vikings-qb-case-keenum-excited-about-being-the-guy-in-denver/

So 20 of about 40?

[Broncofan]

On 5/23/2018 at 9:48 AM, Cearbhall said:

Careful. We are not guaranteed four comp picks. If Teddy gets cut and one of the DTs in Seattle gets cut the Vikings will only get three comp picks (3, 7, 7). I would say that the Vikings are in good shape for getting four comp picks but it is far from guaranteed. While Brock has a guaranteed contract, it is just a one year deal. He may not count in the compensatory formula if he is injured before the season starts and is on IR for every game of the one year contract. (See Angelo Crowell not being factored into the 2010 compensatory pick formula). For that matter, Stephen and Tom Johnson are one one year deals too and may end up on IR before the season.

Yeah, as you mentioned the comp pick formula also factors in playing time and post-season awards (like Pro Bowls).   The base salary annual per year (APY) value is multiplied by the player's defensive (in this case) snap count.   So if Brock (or Johnson x 2) is only on the field as a 3rd or 4th CB, he's likely not counting for even half of that APY value.   FYI, that's how we lost out with Osweiler's big FA payday when he got benched.    It's not just IR - it's snap count %.    So being on the roster isn't good enough, you have to play (and play well for top picks).   That also probably negates Teddy's value, unless he can actually get on the field.     It's actually quite possible that only 1-2 of those signings count towards the pick formula, and likely at a huge discount off the APY salary, given the snap count isn't likely to be high (>50% percent) for any of them.

Edited May 24, 2018 by Broncofan

[Cearbhall]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, as you mentioned the comp pick formula also factors in playing time and post-season awards (like Pro Bowls).   The base salary annual per year (APY) value is multiplied by the player's defensive (in this case) snap count.   So if Brock (or Johnson x 2) is only on the field as a 3rd or 4th CB, he's likely not counting for even half of that APY value.   FYI, that's how we lost out with Osweiler's big FA payday when he got benched.    It's not just IR - it's snap count %.    So being on the roster isn't good enough, you have to play (and play well for top picks).   That also probably negates Teddy's value, unless he can actually get on the field.     It's actually quite possible that only 1-2 of those signings count towards the pick formula, and likely at a huge discount off the APY salary, given the snap count isn't likely to be high (>50% percent) for any of them.

Snap count percentage is not nearly as big a modifier as you are suggesting. The Broncos didn't get a compensatory pick for losing Brock Osweiller at all and that has nothing to do with snap count percentage. Osweiller counted in the formula at a third round level -- the highest available level. The Broncos didn't get a pick for him because they signed Russell Okung that year and he also counted at a third round level and cancelled out the loss of Osweiller.

Snap count percentage is a modifier, but fairly insignificant compared to APY. The coefficient applies is not the snap count percentage itself. There aren't examples of guys moving far in the formula based on snap count other than guys on one year contracts not counting at all when they were on IR for that full year.

In contrast, an example from the OTC methodology explanation: "The most stark example was Brian Leonard qualifying in favor for Cincinnati on a veteran minimum of $715,000 despite only playing in 28.1% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Similarly, Mike Pollak qualified against Cincinnati on a minimum salary benefit contract of $780,000 despite only appearing in 32.4% of 2013’s offensive snaps."

I do not know the coefficients, but it seems to be something closer to this table (which I just made up) than just directly using snap count percentage as the coefficient:

Snap Count Percentage	Coefficient
50 - 100	1
25 - 50	0.9
0 - 25	0.8

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Snap count percentage is not nearly as big a modifier as you are suggesting. The Broncos didn't get a compensatory pick for losing Brock Osweiller at all and that has nothing to do with snap count percentage. Osweiller counted in the formula at a third round level -- the highest available level. The Broncos didn't get a pick for him because they signed Russell Okung that year and he also counted at a third round level and cancelled out the loss of Osweiller.

Snap count percentage is a modifier, but fairly insignificant compared to APY. The coefficient applies is not the snap count percentage itself. There aren't examples of guys moving far in the formula based on snap count other than guys on one year contracts not counting at all when they were on IR for that full year.

In contrast, an example from the OTC methodology explanation: "The most stark example was Brian Leonard qualifying in favor for Cincinnati on a veteran minimum of $715,000 despite only playing in 28.1% of the offensive snaps in 2013. Similarly, Mike Pollak qualified against Cincinnati on a minimum salary benefit contract of $780,000 despite only appearing in 32.4% of 2013’s offensive snaps."

I do not know the coefficients, but it seems to be something closer to this table (which I just made up) than just directly using snap count percentage as the coefficient:

Snap Count Percentage	Coefficient
50 - 100	1
25 - 50	0.9
0 - 25	0.8

Ah, gotcha on the coefficient & range.    That makes more sense.   Knew about Okung cancelling out on the negative side but couldn’t figure out the exact percentage formula (realizing the formula above is a straw dog).   That actually makes more sense.  Tip my cap.  

Edited May 25, 2018 by Broncofan

[vike daddy]

 It's still early -- very early -- but one player in particular has generated a legitimate buzz at One Jets Drive -- quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

The organization couldn't be happier with Bridgewater, one of the bright spots in Week 1 of OTA practices. Not only did he perform well in the first practice, open to the media, but he maintained it throughout the week. While it's too soon to wage a "Teddy-should-be-starting" campaign -- his surgically repaired knee won't be truly tested until he gets hit in a preseason game -- it creates some interesting options for the Jets.

When they made a one-year, low-cost investment in Bridgewater, they did so with the belief that he could be flipped for a draft pick under the right circumstances. That's still on the table; his trade value is trending upward. Or they could decide to keep him because, if he stays healthy, he might be the best quarterback on the team in 2018.

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/76284/teddy-bridgewaters-promising-start-could-alter-jets-qb-dynamic

[SteelKing728]

If Bridgewater can sustain hits and wins the week 1 job, would that mean that Josh McCown could be available for trade? Would the Jets be willing to stick with Bridgewater and Darnold as the only 2 'capable' quarterbacks on their roster?

[Klomp]

OK, here's a question....is Teddy's comp pick value only tied to what he does for the Jets, or would it still count in our favor if he were traded?