Post Big FA Moves 1st Round Mock thru 8

[dll2000]

Most of 'professional' mocks don't have many QBs going early.  I'm not buying it.  Trend in recent years is other direction and I see nothing different this year. People have been talking about this class for 3 years.  Here's my current guess:  

1. Browns.   Sam Darnold. QB

I think no way Browns pass on QB again.  Especially since they probably won't be drafting at top of the draft again next year with a veteran QB and a bunch of free agents.  They are doing the fashionable bridge QB thing which I think is a waste of time, but everybody swears is the way to go.  I would say Rosen, but Rosen doesn't want to go there and I don't think they want or can afford the poor attitude.

2. Giants.  Josh Rosen QB.  

If Giants draft Barkley they may win 8 or 9 games in 2018 and Manning retires and they are forced to trade up from 16 to top 2.  They are here now and they need to draft their QB now.  

3. Colts -> Broncos.  Josh Allen QB.    

Here is where you will likely see the first mega trade for a QB (and here is where Bears should have been if they were smarter and tanked a few more games).  Bills, Broncos, Jets, Cardinals could all be coming depending on who they like and who they think the other guys like.  Can you wait or do you have to come up?

Going to say Broncos swap picks and give up whatever more to get deal done.  Probably a deal similar to what Bears did to get Trubisky plus a little more.  I say Allen because Elway has been very publicly following Mayfield.  That usually means smoke screen.  Allen is a big guy and has a cannon and those are QB's Elway favors even though they have all sucked for him save Manning who was already proven good.  Mayfield is a small innovative player who goes off script and Elway doesn't like those guys.  He likes guys that he perceives to be like him.     

4. Browns.  Bradley Chubb. Edge

Browns should take Barkley as he is special, but their new GM is from the I can find great RBs late in draft school.  Chubb is next best prospect.

5. Broncos -> Colts.   Saquon Barkley RB.

Colts get a great RB to play with Luck who hopefully can still play and picked up some extra picks in the deal to fill more needs.  Got their guy and then some.

6. Jets. -> Baker Mayfield QB

Jets get their preferred guy without trading up.  That's what they will say anyway.  PFF guys think Mayfield is best and 2nd isn't close.  I'm not buying it.  NFL almost never thinks the little guy is the best QB.

7.   Bucs -> Minkah Fitzpatrick DB

Bucs desperately wanted Chubb or Barkley or a trade down.  All primo QBs are gone and they are stuck in the 7 spot without a partner.  They need pass rusher and DB, so they take best on THEIR board in Fitzpatrick.  They consider Nelson here, but their other needs are too great.

8.  Bears -> wait for my thought process.  

Bears are both happy and sad.  Happy because all these QBs went and they get to decide amongst several of their top prospects, sad because now, like the Bucs, they can't trade down for more picks.  More sad than happy because what Pace wanted was to move down gain a pick or two and take Landry.  Bills and Cards aren't coming because they know Bucs and Bears aren't drafting QBs and they don't love remaining guys that much to move up anyway.  They can wait.  Media is freaking out about Lamar Jackson at this point, saying, "someone has to get him, it's just like Watson."  This even though Jackson is little like Watson other than skin color.  Bills just went through a bunch of guys who were that type of skill set with no success to show and new Cards staff don't want to play that way either.  Jackson will be electric on his feet, but many of seen how that plays out long term and aren't sure they want to try it again.  Either may take still take Jackson, but they are going to wait. 

1/2 Bears fans are screaming Nelson other 1/2 are screaming Edmunds.  

Fangio is pounding table for Landry.  He says when I came back you said you would get me guys!    Bears scouts are pounding table for Nelson, saying you will regret passing this guy.  A few are arguing Roquan Smith.  One guy in room says Edmunds and is told to shut up because he is new and low on chain.  Davenport is rejected as a non fit and more of a 4-3 end than a 3-4 LB.  Pace is faced with quandary of taking good player at a dire need or taking great player at another position of lesser need.  He always said to himself take BPA and that's Nelson, but when faced with a gaping hole in a key position and Fangio's strong insistence on Landry he can't make that choice.    

Bears pick is ->Harold Landry, Edge.

Pace thinks to himself, I am simply not going to get another edge rusher later in draft.  He is upset he couldn't pull off a trade, but then says to himself, look you idiot you may not like him at 8, but you were trading down for this guy anyway and it makes Fangio happy.  He puts on his satisfied my plan all along face for media.  Bears fans are unhappy because they fell in love with idea of Nelson or Edmunds and think Bears missed out big time.  Commentators are saying it was a reach at 8.  Bears fans agree.  Landry turns out to be a good player and gets 9.5 sacks/tfls in his rookie year - wins Bears fans over.

Note: This isn't necessarily my choice in this situation as I am still undecided.  This is me guessing  or imagining a probable draft scenario presented and how Bears will react to it.

 

 

 

 

 

[G08]

That was entertaining 

 

Sell me on Landry... I worry about his lower body and functional strength. His bend, however, is elite.

[jumbo]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Most of 'professional' mocks don't have many QBs going early.  I'm not buying it.  Trend in recent years is other direction and I see nothing different this year. People have been talking about this class for 3 years.  Here's my current guess:  

1. Browns.   Sam Darnold. QB

I think no way Browns pass on QB again.  Especially since they probably won't be drafting at top of the draft again next year with a veteran QB and a bunch of free agents.  They are doing the fashionable bridge QB thing which I think is a waste of time, but everybody swears is the way to go.  I would say Rosen, but Rosen doesn't want to go there and I don't think they want or can afford the poor attitude.

2. Giants.  Josh Rosen QB.  

If Giants draft Barkley they may win 8 or 9 games in 2018 and Manning retires and they are forced to trade up from 16 to top 2.  They are here now and they need to draft their QB now.  

3. Colts -> Broncos.  Josh Allen QB.    

Here is where you will likely see the first mega trade for a QB (and here is where Bears should have been if they were smarter and tanked a few more games).  Bills, Broncos, Jets, Cardinals could all be coming depending on who they like and who they think the other guys like.  Can you wait or do you have to come up?

Going to say Broncos swap picks and give up whatever more to get deal done.  Probably a deal similar to what Bears did to get Trubisky plus a little more.  I say Allen because Elway has been very publicly following Mayfield.  That usually means smoke screen.  Allen is a big guy and has a cannon and those are QB's Elway favors even though they have all sucked for him save Manning who was already proven good.  Mayfield is a small innovative player who goes off script and Elway doesn't like those guys.  He likes guys that he perceives to be like him.     

4. Browns.  Bradley Chubb. Edge

Browns should take Barkley as he is special, but their new GM is from the I can find great RBs late in draft school.  Chubb is next best prospect.

5. Broncos -> Colts.   Saquon Barkley RB.

Colts get a great RB to play with Luck who hopefully can still play and picked up some extra picks in the deal to fill more needs.  Got their guy and then some.

6. Jets. -> Baker Mayfield QB

Jets get their preferred guy without trading up.  That's what they will say anyway.  PFF guys think Mayfield is best and 2nd isn't close.  I'm not buying it.  NFL almost never thinks the little guy is the best QB.

7.   Bucs -> Minkah Fitzpatrick DB

Bucs desperately wanted Chubb or Barkley or a trade down.  All primo QBs are gone and they are stuck in the 7 spot without a partner.  They need pass rusher and DB, so they take best on THEIR board in Fitzpatrick.  They consider Nelson here, but their other needs are too great.

8.  Bears -> wait for my thought process.  

Bears are both happy and sad.  Happy because all these QBs went and they get to decide amongst several of their top prospects, sad because now, like the Bucs, they can't trade down for more picks.  More sad than happy because what Pace wanted was to move down gain a pick or two and take Landry.  Bills and Cards aren't coming because they know Bucs and Bears aren't drafting QBs and they don't love remaining guys that much to move up anyway.  They can wait.  Media is freaking out about Lamar Jackson at this point, saying, "someone has to get him, it's just like Watson."  This even though Jackson is little like Watson other than skin color.  Bills just went through a bunch of guys who were that type of skill set with no success to show and new Cards staff don't want to play that way either.  Jackson will be electric on his feet, but many of seen how that plays out long term and aren't sure they want to try it again.  Either may take still take Jackson, but they are going to wait. 

1/2 Bears fans are screaming Nelson other 1/2 are screaming Edmunds.  

Fangio is pounding table for Landry.  He says when I came back you said you would get me guys!    Bears scouts are pounding table for Nelson, saying you will regret passing this guy.  A few are arguing Roquan Smith.  One guy in room says Edmunds and is told to shut up because he is new and low on chain.  Davenport is rejected as a non fit and more of a 4-3 end than a 3-4 LB.  Pace is faced with quandary of taking good player at a dire need or taking great player at another position of lesser need.  He always said to himself take BPA and that's Nelson, but when faced with a gaping hole in a key position and Fangio's strong insistence on Landry he can't make that choice.    

Bears pick is ->Harold Landry, Edge.

Pace thinks to himself, I am simply not going to get another edge rusher later in draft.  He is upset he couldn't pull off a trade, but then says to himself, look you idiot you may not like him at 8, but you were trading down for this guy anyway and it makes Fangio happy.  He puts on his satisfied my plan all along face for media.  Bears fans are unhappy because they fell in love with idea of Nelson or Edmunds and think Bears missed out big time.  Commentators are saying it was a reach at 8.  Bears fans agree.  Landry turns out to be a good player and gets 9.5 sacks/tfls in his rookie year - wins Bears fans over.

Note: This isn't necessarily my choice in this situation as I am still undecided.  This is me guessing  or imagining a probable draft scenario presented and how Bears will react to it.

 

 

Good logic, but I don't see the Bills not trading up to get their QB after swapping 21-12.  They have all the firepower they need to trade to any spot they like and get their QB.  All their work thus far this offseason has to have that goal in mind.  McCarron is not signing to be their QBOTF

 

 

 

[dll2000]

I knew someone was going to 3.  Didn’t know who would have highest bid.  

[dll2000]

On 3/15/2018 at 7:16 PM, G08 said:

That was entertaining 

 

Sell me on Landry... I worry about his lower body and functional strength. His bend, however, is elite.

He has to learn speed to power.  He has exceptional speed off the edge. In college that was sufficient and he hasn’t developed secondary pass rush moves yet.  He just tears off edge nearly every play.  Played hurt last season, is fairly dominant at college level when healthy.

I would rate his pass rush ability significantly better than Floyd coming out, with Floyd having a touch more athletic talent and upside. To be fair to Floyd he had to play off ball a lot in college and Landry was a pass rush specialist.

Probably a mid first or later talent, but positional value pushes him up as edge pass rushers are paper thin in this draft and free agency.

His first step is his best quality.  Just a slight tick behind the elite edge guys. 

[G08]

4 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

He has to learn speed to power.  He has exceptional speed off the edge. In college that was sufficient and he hasn’t developed secondary pass rush moves yet.  He just tears off edge nearly every play.  Played hurt last season, is fairly dominant at college level when healthy.

I would rate his pass rush ability significantly better than Floyd coming out, with Floyd having a touch more athletic talent and upside. To be fair to Floyd he had to play off ball a lot in college and Landry was a pass rush specialist.

Probably a mid first or later talent, but positional value pushes him up as edge pass rushers are paper thin in this draft and free agency.

His first step is his best quality.  Just a slight tick behind the elite edge guys. 

That's how I see him as well... I don't think I want him at 8 and am hoping Nelson or Edmunds is there. If we trade down I'd love to get Landry.

[Nads786]

I would not want a player going top 10 who isn't already ready to go. I say give me Nelson and draft a OLB in the second round.