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Klomp

All abouts the wideouts

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49 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Treadwell saw the field more last year, and he got open quite a bit, but he also didn’t capitalize on enough of his opportunities, however few they may have been. 

This is a good point that I don't recall being brought up often. Treadwell had the worst catch percentage on the entire team.

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1 hour ago, vike daddy said:

so let's ask this question about Treadwell...

how many catches would he have to have this year to be seen as NOT a bust? 30? 50? 70?

 

62 catches, 1,169 yards, 9 TD's, saves 4 kids from a burning building, adopts 6 cats and 4 dogs, runs a successful campaign for MN Governor, extends the light rail to Duluth and Moorhead, brokers a Led Zeppelin Reunion Tour, and builds the Wall (between Minnesota and Canada). Then we can declare him not a bust. Anything less, and Spielman must lose his job.

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19 hours ago, rpmwr19 said:

All Treadwell really has to do is build trust and rapport with Cousins. He was open last year, Keenum just hardly pulled the trigger. 

No reason not to give Treadwell the chance to earn his way onto the field in the all important year-3 for wideouts. 

I think Wright will be the 3rd WR and if the Vikes are running more 2 TEs looks as has been speculated, the 3rd WR role may even be less relevant.

 

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35 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

I think Wright will be the 3rd WR and if the Vikes are running more 2 TEs looks as has been speculated, the 3rd WR role may even be less relevant.

Keep in mind how often Thielen is in the slot (40% of his snaps last year). In those situations, Treadwell would probably be the better option outside.

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10 hours ago, wcblack34 said:

62 catches, 1,169 yards, 9 TD's, saves 4 kids from a burning building, adopts 6 cats and 4 dogs, runs a successful campaign for MN Governor, extends the light rail to Duluth and Moorhead, brokers a Led Zeppelin Reunion Tour, and builds the Wall (between Minnesota and Canada). Then we can declare him not a bust. Anything less, and Spielman must lose his job.

what could we remove from the list if he breaks Aaron Rodgers' collarbone...?

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Best realistic scenario for Treadwell, if everyone stays healthy, is that he gets used as the WR3, playing more snaps and getting more targets than Wright and whichever of the young guys stick on the team.

His big advantage in terms of usage compared to Wright at least, is that he’s an outside WR and won’t compete with Thielen and Diggs for snaps in the slot. The Vikings don’t have another big outside WR unless they use Thielen more often in that role (maybe Cayleb Jones post suspension or Korey Robertson could do it, but those are long shots).

I don’t know depth charts around the league well enough to know how many examples there are to benchmark Treadwell against as a young WR3 playing exclusively as an outside WR. Two recent examples I can think of in the division that are fairly similar:

  • Kenny Golladay’s rookie year, last year in Detroit. Jones and Tate were clearly WRs 1 and 2 in terms of snap counts and targets, though as the year went on Golladay saw more work in 2WR sets. Golladay played exclusively outside. He only played 11 games but put up 477 yards (43 yards/game) and 3 TDs. Golladay is an effective vertical receiver, unlike Treadwell, and had a lot of downfield targets and a high yards per reception (17, compared to 10 for Treadwell)
  • Davante Adams 2014-15 in Green Bay. He was the 3rd option behind Nelson and Cobb, though he got a bit more action in his 2nd year, with Nelson on IR and James Jones playing as the other outside WR. Adams is more of a possession receiver, and like Treadwell struggled early to gain separation and makes plays at the catch point. Unlike Treadwell, he’s a plus athlete. Adams improved significantly in year 3 and took over the WR2 role ahead of Cobb, then the WR1 job last year, as Nelson declined. Adams had 456 and 483 receiving yards in 2014 and 2015. His production in 2015 was actually terrible given a very high number of targets — caught only 50 of 94 targets for the 483 yards (basically 5 YPT) and one TD. 

Golladay was a 3rd round pick and Adams a 2nd round pick. Golladay showed he belonged in the league from day one, while Adams had a mediocre rookie season and a bad year 2 before he figured it out. Even then, Adams showed more flashes than Treadwell through his first two years, including a two 100 yard games as a rookie, one of them in the playoffs.

Treadwell doesn’t have a great chance to ever develop into a starting WR, given his first two years, but if that’s ever going to happen, he absolutely needs to produce in year 3. For me, the minimum to maintain hope in his future development would be Treadwell playing more snaps and getting more targets than any WR except Diggs and Thielen, and putting up something like 500 yards and a few TDs, finally showing that he can succeed in the red zone / possession role he was projected to when he was drafted.

 

Edited by Krauser

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For whatever reason, Keenum didn't develop much trust with the depth guys last year. Even in the two games Diggs missed.

Targets
vs. GB: Thielen 13, Rudolph 9, McKinnon 6, Treadwell 3, Floyd 3, Murray 1
vs. BAL: Thielen 12, Rudolph 7, Treadwell 4, Wright 4, McKinnon 3, Ham 1

It wasn't about trust from the coaching staff - Treadwell was on the field for almost 70% of total snaps in those two games. And he was playing more snaps than the other WRs outside of Diggs and Thielen all season long - almost twice as many, in fact.

Season snap counts
Treadwell 500
Wright 254
Floyd 152
Coley 20

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10 hours ago, vike daddy said:

what could we remove from the list if he breaks Aaron Rodgers' collarbone...?

All of it. 

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3 hours ago, Klomp said:

It wasn't about trust from the coaching staff - Treadwell was on the field for almost 70% of total snaps in those two games. And he was playing more snaps than the other WRs outside of Diggs and Thielen all season long - almost twice as many, in fact.

Season snap counts
Treadwell 500
Wright 254
Floyd 152
Coley 20

could i ask you to calculate the percentage for each of these receivers of passes attempted toward them vs number of snaps played? might tell us something additional. i guess for Thielen, Diggs, and the TE's too.

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28 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

could i ask you to calculate the percentage for each of these receivers of passes attempted toward them vs number of snaps played? might tell us something additional. i guess for Thielen, Diggs, and the TE's too.

Thielen: 142 targets on 1,032 snaps (13.7%)
McKinnon: 68 targets on 527 snaps (12.9%)
Diggs: 95 targets on 780 snaps (12.2%)
Floyd: 17 targets on 152 snaps (11.2%)
Wright: 25 targets on 254 snaps (9.8%)
Rudolph: 81 targets on 922 snaps (8.8%)
Treadwell: 35 targets on 500 snaps (7.0%)

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22 minutes ago, Klomp said:

Thielen: 142 targets on 1,032 snaps (13.7%)
McKinnon: 68 targets on 527 snaps (12.9%)
Diggs: 95 targets on 780 snaps (12.2%)
Floyd: 17 targets on 152 snaps (11.2%)
Wright: 25 targets on 254 snaps (9.8%)
Rudolph: 81 targets on 922 snaps (8.8%)
Treadwell: 35 targets on 500 snaps (7.0%)

ok, so Treadwell is getting used the least. do we hold that against him?

do we feel he is used the least because qb's and oc's feel he isn't dependable, or because he unfairly doesn't get the looks?

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3 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

ok, so Treadwell is getting used the least. do we hold that against him?

do we feel he is used the least because qb's and oc's feel he isn't dependable, or because he unfairly doesn't get the looks?

If OC felt he wasn't dependable, would he be on the field for 500 snaps?

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16 minutes ago, Klomp said:

If OC felt he wasn't dependable, would he be on the field for 500 snaps?

good point. so again, it doesn't look like Treadwell's low performance is solely on him and his skill set.

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36 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

ok, so Treadwell is getting used the least. do we hold that against him?

do we feel he is used the least because qb's and oc's feel he isn't dependable, or because he unfairly doesn't get the looks?

Might many of those snaps be due to his being used as a blocker on running plays?  That would skew the results somewhat by lowering his target %.

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1 minute ago, perrynoid said:

Might many of those snaps be due to his being used as a blocker on running plays?  That would skew the results somewhat by lowering his target %.

Maybe some, but would think everyone would be affected by run plays. It's not like he's the only WR/TE on the field on those plays.

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