squire12 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Given the first few days of the 2018 free agency, I have been thinking about a few things that might be skewing most of the posters views on the GB Packers….specifically the defense. What does a Mike Pettine Defense look like? What type of personnel does he need? From his days in CLE, BUF, NYJ DL snap counts 2015 Player Team Position Total Snaps Off Snaps Off Snap Pct Def Snaps Def Snap Pct ST Snaps ST Snap Pct 71-D.Shelton CLE DL 638 0 0.0% 506 48.3% 132 30.3% 92-D.Bryant CLE DL 557 0 0.0% 528 50.4% 29 6.7% 93-J.Hughes CLE DL 515 0 0.0% 430 41.0% 85 19.5% 98-J.Meder CLE DL 483 0 0.0% 389 37.1% 94 21.6% 94-R.Starks CLE DL 473 0 0.0% 467 44.6% 6 1.4% 96-X.Cooper CLE DL 366 0 0.0% 363 34.6% 3 0.7% 2014 Player Team Position Total Snaps Off Snaps Off Snap Pct Def Snaps Def Snap Pct ST Snaps ST Snap Pct 92-D.Bryant CLE DL 803 0 0.0% 733 63.0% 70 15.0% 90-B.Winn CLE DL 663 0 0.0% 501 43.0% 162 34.8% 71-A.Rubin CLE DL 508 0 0.0% 450 38.7% 58 12.4% 67-I.Kitchen CLE DL 317 0 0.0% 301 25.9% 16 3.4% 70-S.Fua CLE DL 264 0 0.0% 251 21.6% 13 2.8% 93-J.Hughes CLE DL 223 0 0.0% 208 17.9% 15 3.2% 95-A.Bryant CLE DL 194 0 0.0% 133 11.4% 61 13.1% 98-P.Taylor CLE DL 151 0 0.0% 133 11.4% 18 3.9% 54-S.Solomon CLE DL 80 0 0.0% 62 5.3% 18 3.9% 66-J.Meder CLE DL 26 0 0.0% 26 2.2% 0 0.0% 60-J.McDaniel CLE DL 22 0 0.0% 21 1.8% 1 0.2% 2013 Player Team Position Total Snaps Off Snaps Off Snap Pct Def Snaps Def Snap Pct ST Snaps ST Snap Pct 94-M.Williams BUF DL 1026 0 0.0% 999 87.2% 27 5.3% 95-K.Williams BUF DL 955 0 0.0% 939 82.0% 16 3.1% 99-M.Dareus BUF DL 903 0 0.0% 824 72.0% 79 15.6% 55-J.Hughes BUF DL 718 0 0.0% 604 52.8% 114 22.4% 90-Al.Branch BUF DL 701 0 0.0% 596 52.1% 105 20.7% 97-C.Bryant BUF DL 478 0 0.0% 329 28.7% 149 29.3% 92-A.Carrington BUF DL 180 0 0.0% 164 14.3% 16 3.1% 96-S.Charles BUF DL 116 0 0.0% 83 7.2% 33 6.5% 69-J.Ross BUF DL 107 0 0.0% 48 4.2% 59 11.6% 2012 Player Team Position Total Snaps Off Snaps Off Snap Pct Def Snaps Def Snap Pct ST Snaps ST Snap Pct 96-M.Wilkerson NYJ DL 987 0 0.0% 910 85.3% 77 16.6% 70-M.Devito NYJ DL 734 0 0.0% 629 59.0% 105 22.7% 98-Q.Coples NYJ DL 583 0 0.0% 503 47.1% 80 17.3% 91-S.Pouha NYJ DL 340 0 0.0% 305 28.6% 35 7.6% 93-K.Ellis NYJ DL 284 0 0.0% 233 21.8% 51 11.0% 94-M.Dixon NYJ DL 96 0 0.0% 56 5.2% 40 8.6% 55-R.Sapp NYJ DL 59 0 0.0% 44 4.1% 15 3.2% 99-D.Muir NYJ DL 57 0 0.0% 43 4.0% 14 3.0% 71-D.Harrison NYJ DL 26 0 0.0% 22 2.1% 4 0.9% The number of DL appears to be adjusted based on the talent on hand. DL per snap 2015 = 2.54 2014= 2.37 2013= 3.98 2012= 2.55 2017 GB by comparison = 2.11 Player Team Position Total Snaps Off Snaps Off Snap Pct Def Snaps Def Snap Pct ST Snaps ST Snap Pct 97-K.Clark GB DL 757 0 0.0% 688 65.2% 69 16.3% 76-M.Daniels GB DL 689 0 0.0% 630 59.7% 59 13.9% 94-D.Lowry GB DL 624 0 0.0% 496 47.0% 128 30.2% 91-Q.Dial GB DL 409 0 0.0% 309 29.3% 100 23.6% 90-M.Adams GB DL 87 0 0.0% 65 6.2% 22 5.2% 94-R.Jean Francois GB DL 61 0 0.0% 60 5.7% 1 0.2% Back to the initial questions What does a Mike Pettine Defense look like? What type of personnel does he need? I am not sure many of us really know what the 2018 GB defense will consist of. Could be more base 3-4, could be a good deal of hybrid and subpackages. If the trio of Daniels, Clark and Wilkerson get each log around 60% of the defensive snaps and Adams and Lowry can be around 30%, that is accounting for 240% which would put the defensive line at 2.40 per snap. If Dial or another DL is brought in to take a small % or a mid round draft pick, we may be looking at a higher use of 3DL and a more aggressive front in generating pressure. This could help offset the (currently huge) need of an EDGE rusher being added or drafted early. It may be possible that a Vinny Curry or other player could fill that DL depth. There may be bigger changes in the defensive side of things that will significantly alter the draft needs. Interested in seeing what this upcoming few weeks of FA and then the draft has for some potential answers. Maybe the pass rush can be found from other means besides the EDGE OLB position and the focus can be shifted to the CB group for the early part of the draft. Thoughts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kepler Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Yeah that's a really interesting question. I get feeling Pettine will skew the defense toward whatever it's strengths happen to be as far as personnel. If that turns out to be the DL, which it currently is by far, then i could definitely see a bunch more 3 man fronts than we saw last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kepler said: Yeah that's a really interesting question. I get feeling Pettine will skew the defense toward whatever it's strengths happen to be as far as personnel. If that turns out to be the DL, which it currently is by far, then i could definitely see a bunch more 3 man fronts than we saw last year. It still does not negate the need for more and better CB than what is currently on the roster. But if 1 of Ward/Fitzpatrick/James were to be there at 14, GB could take one of them and still add another CB in the 2nd or 3rd to add quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 My thoughts are that I am extremely grateful for posters like yourself who take the time and effort to produce high quality work around here There's so much we don't know yet about what Pettine wants, I suspect he'll keep it that way until after the draft. But whether its more DL per snap or a fresher rotation of DL per game is TBD and likely to be somewhat opponent specific. The DL as currently constructed is a nice mix of youth and vets and looks solid going into 2018. One article I came across noted the steady drop in time-to-pass across the entire NFL - that means the ball is coming out faster and faster. Perhaps that also means that the pass rush up the middle has even more value going forward. Those guys are the closest to the QB and can get there quicker than the 5,7,9 techs can from the traditional alignments. More DL may also offer better protection for the smaller "hybrid" ILBs like Burnett/Jones and others across the league Pettine spent time in several few systems, including Seattle and Pete Carroll and Rex Ryan are both noted for their defensive aptitudes- we'll see what he gleaned from those guys and how he marries it to the roster. He said stopping the pass is Job 1 under his guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Interesting information. I'm wondering if the Browns data is colored by the Browns being a terrible team who got run on a lot in clock kill situations. In 2015 when they were 3-13 they played a lot more DL than they did in 2014. The 2013 number should really be 2.61. You're not counting the edge group in any of the other years, but that's Football Outsiders. I'd even argue that both Quinton Coples and Ricky Sapp were edge rushers with the Jets in 2012. That puts that number down to 2.06 if you feel that's the case. Both are tweeners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kepler Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Just now, squire12 said: It still does not negate the need for more and better CB than what is currently on the roster. But if 1 of Ward/Fitzpatrick/James were to be there at 14, GB could take one of them and still add another CB in the 2nd or 3rd to add quality. Even so, do you think that would turn the secondary into a position of more strength, or equal to, the strength of our current DL? I think if the secondary was strong enough we'd see more hybrid than 3 DL, but it would take significant upgrades to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Interesting information. I'm wondering if the Browns data is colored by the Browns being a terrible team who got run on a lot in clock kill situations. In 2015 when they were 3-13 they played a lot more DL than they did in 2014. The 2013 number should really be 2.61. You're not counting the edge group in any of the other years, but that's Football Outsiders. I'd even argue that both Quinton Coples and Ricky Sapp were edge rushers with the Jets in 2012. That puts that number down to 2.06 if you feel that's the case. Both are tweeners. Tough to judge actual DL per snaps when things get skewed with guys dropping down into inside pass rusher situations. I agree the DL numbers will get determined by many factors including what the opponent is trying to do against you and how good you are at stopping the run or pass. Regarding the Coples and Sapp, that is part of what I am thinking might affect Nick Perry. Maybe he is going to be more of a DL and that also opens the door for other draft pick options at "4-3" DE vs 3-4 OLB. Yes they are still EDGE rushers, but you get more options to pick from. Some players that might be in play include Rasheem Green, Breeland Speaks, Jayln Holmes, Tyquan Lewis, Chad Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, squire12 said: Tough to judge actual DL per snaps when things get skewed with guys dropping down into inside pass rusher situations. I agree the DL numbers will get determined by many factors including what the opponent is trying to do against you and how good you are at stopping the run or pass. Regarding the Coples and Sapp, that is part of what I am thinking might affect Nick Perry. Maybe he is going to be more of a DL and that also opens the door for other draft pick options at "4-3" DE vs 3-4 OLB. Yes they are still EDGE rushers, but you get more options to pick from. Some players that might be in play include Rasheem Green, Breeland Speaks, Jayln Holmes, Tyquan Lewis, Chad Thomas Couldn't have put it better. Only thing I might disagree on is your statement that this is a new development. This defense has needed an interior rush specialist for 2 years. That was going to be on the wish list for every DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, Shanedorf said: My thoughts are that I am extremely grateful for posters like yourself who take the time and effort to produce high quality work around here There's so much we don't know yet about what Pettine wants, I suspect he'll keep it that way until after the draft. But whether its more DL per snap or a fresher rotation of DL per game is TBD and likely to be somewhat opponent specific. The DL as currently constructed is a nice mix of youth and vets and looks solid going into 2018. One article I came across noted the steady drop in time-to-pass across the entire NFL - that means the ball is coming out faster and faster. Perhaps that also means that the pass rush up the middle has even more value going forward. Those guys are the closest to the QB and can get there quicker than the 5,7,9 techs can from the traditional alignments. More DL may also offer better protection for the smaller "hybrid" ILBs like Burnett/Jones and others across the league Pettine spent time in several few systems, including Seattle and Pete Carroll and Rex Ryan are both noted for their defensive aptitudes- we'll see what he gleaned from those guys and how he marries it to the roster. He said stopping the pass is Job 1 under his guidance I appreciate the kind words. Not sure I have any answers to these questions, but I think it is worth considering with the addition of Wilkerson, that GB may be playing more 3 DL vs the 2DL in Capers D. Ultimately, I was looking for a silver lining in the current state of the CB group and the need for EDGE rusher to be added in the draft. There are only so many high draft picks to be had. With likely needs for high picks to be used at EDGE, CB, WR, CB.....it would be nice to lessen the need for an EDGE, or at least open the player pool to others to fillout the DL/EDGE rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Couldn't have put it better. Only thing I might disagree on is your statement that this is a new development. This defense has needed an interior rush specialist for 2 years. That was going to be on the wish list for every DC. It may not be a new development, but it might be a necessary new way of most of us here thinking about how and what types of players needs to be acquired for the Mike Pettine defense to succeed. Having gone through the TCMD process and realizing that there are some really good pass rushers that come in a variety of positions, shapes and body sizes, I needed to look past the EDGE rusher group. I think it was you that pointed it out after the Wilkerson signing that the D might look much more like a 4-3 under....and quite frankly after having been viewing and thinking along the lines of the Capers 3-4/sub package for 8 years, my thought process and assessment needed to change. Just hard to do and to really know what to be looking for until I can see the Pettine defense on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Finally did what I should have done a long time ago and bought the NFL Game Pass. Watching the 2014 Browns. Anybody have specific questions regarding Pettine's defenses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Finally did what I should have done a long time ago and bought the NFL Game Pass. Watching the 2014 Browns. Anybody have specific questions regarding Pettine's defenses? Did you not read the OP..... 1 hour ago, squire12 said: What does a Mike Pettine Defense look like? What type of personnel does he need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTwoSixFive Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, squire12 said: It may not be a new development, but it might be a necessary new way of most of us here thinking about how and what types of players needs to be acquired for the Mike Pettine defense to succeed. Having gone through the TCMD process and realizing that there are some really good pass rushers that come in a variety of positions, shapes and body sizes, I needed to look past the EDGE rusher group. I took exactly the same from your mock draft. I now have an interest in a number of later pass rushers I hadn't looked at before, guys like Carter, Ejiofor, Turay, Adeniyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, OneTwoSixFive said: I took exactly the same from your mock draft. I now have an interest in a number of later pass rushers I hadn't looked at before, guys like Carter, Ejiofor, Turay, Adeniyi. That was one of the attractions to Kentavius Street. Interior pass rush specialist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 38 minutes ago, squire12 said: Tough to judge actual DL per snaps when things get skewed with guys dropping down into inside pass rusher situations. I agree the DL numbers will get determined by many factors including what the opponent is trying to do against you and how good you are at stopping the run or pass. Regarding the Coples and Sapp, that is part of what I am thinking might affect Nick Perry. Maybe he is going to be more of a DL and that also opens the door for other draft pick options at "4-3" DE vs 3-4 OLB. Yes they are still EDGE rushers, but you get more options to pick from. Some players that might be in play include Rasheem Green, Breeland Speaks, Jayln Holmes, Tyquan Lewis, Chad Thomas Lewis, Holmes, and Speaks would be an absolute no for me; not thrilled with Green. Like Chad Thomas as a potential ELB. Still think that Perry should've been a speed rusher in a 4-3. I hope we essentially use him in the role he's played the past two years in particular. I do wonder if Street's production was NC State was a product of so much attention towards Chubb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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