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squire12

Mike Pettine Defense

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Given the first few days of the 2018 free agency, I have been thinking about a few things that might be skewing most of the posters views on the GB Packers….specifically the defense.  

 

What does a Mike Pettine Defense look like?  

What type of personnel does he need?

 

From his days in CLE, BUF, NYJ

DL snap counts

 

2015

Player

Team

Position

Total Snaps

Off Snaps

Off Snap Pct

Def Snaps

Def Snap Pct

ST Snaps

ST Snap Pct

71-D.Shelton

CLE

DL

638

0

0.0%

506

48.3%

132

30.3%

92-D.Bryant

CLE

DL

557

0

0.0%

528

50.4%

29

6.7%

93-J.Hughes

CLE

DL

515

0

0.0%

430

41.0%

85

19.5%

98-J.Meder

CLE

DL

483

0

0.0%

389

37.1%

94

21.6%

94-R.Starks

CLE

DL

473

0

0.0%

467

44.6%

6

1.4%

96-X.Cooper

CLE

DL

366

0

0.0%

363

34.6%

3

0.7%

 

2014

Player

Team

Position

Total Snaps

Off Snaps

Off Snap Pct

Def Snaps

Def Snap Pct

ST Snaps

ST Snap Pct

92-D.Bryant

CLE

DL

803

0

0.0%

733

63.0%

70

15.0%

90-B.Winn

CLE

DL

663

0

0.0%

501

43.0%

162

34.8%

71-A.Rubin

CLE

DL

508

0

0.0%

450

38.7%

58

12.4%

67-I.Kitchen

CLE

DL

317

0

0.0%

301

25.9%

16

3.4%

70-S.Fua

CLE

DL

264

0

0.0%

251

21.6%

13

2.8%

93-J.Hughes

CLE

DL

223

0

0.0%

208

17.9%

15

3.2%

95-A.Bryant

CLE

DL

194

0

0.0%

133

11.4%

61

13.1%

98-P.Taylor

CLE

DL

151

0

0.0%

133

11.4%

18

3.9%

54-S.Solomon

CLE

DL

80

0

0.0%

62

5.3%

18

3.9%

66-J.Meder

CLE

DL

26

0

0.0%

26

2.2%

0

0.0%

60-J.McDaniel

CLE

DL

22

0

0.0%

21

1.8%

1

0.2%

 

2013

Player

Team

Position

Total Snaps

Off Snaps

Off Snap Pct

Def Snaps

Def Snap Pct

ST Snaps

ST Snap Pct

94-M.Williams

BUF

DL

1026

0

0.0%

999

87.2%

27

5.3%

95-K.Williams

BUF

DL

955

0

0.0%

939

82.0%

16

3.1%

99-M.Dareus

BUF

DL

903

0

0.0%

824

72.0%

79

15.6%

55-J.Hughes

BUF

DL

718

0

0.0%

604

52.8%

114

22.4%

90-Al.Branch

BUF

DL

701

0

0.0%

596

52.1%

105

20.7%

97-C.Bryant

BUF

DL

478

0

0.0%

329

28.7%

149

29.3%

92-A.Carrington

BUF

DL

180

0

0.0%

164

14.3%

16

3.1%

96-S.Charles

BUF

DL

116

0

0.0%

83

7.2%

33

6.5%

69-J.Ross

BUF

DL

107

0

0.0%

48

4.2%

59

11.6%

 

2012

Player

Team

Position

Total Snaps

Off Snaps

Off Snap Pct

Def Snaps

Def Snap Pct

ST Snaps

ST Snap Pct

96-M.Wilkerson

NYJ

DL

987

0

0.0%

910

85.3%

77

16.6%

70-M.Devito

NYJ

DL

734

0

0.0%

629

59.0%

105

22.7%

98-Q.Coples

NYJ

DL

583

0

0.0%

503

47.1%

80

17.3%

91-S.Pouha

NYJ

DL

340

0

0.0%

305

28.6%

35

7.6%

93-K.Ellis

NYJ

DL

284

0

0.0%

233

21.8%

51

11.0%

94-M.Dixon

NYJ

DL

96

0

0.0%

56

5.2%

40

8.6%

55-R.Sapp

NYJ

DL

59

0

0.0%

44

4.1%

15

3.2%

99-D.Muir

NYJ

DL

57

0

0.0%

43

4.0%

14

3.0%

71-D.Harrison

NYJ

DL

26

0

0.0%

22

2.1%

4

0.9%


 

The number of DL appears to be adjusted based on the talent on hand.  

DL per snap

2015 = 2.54

2014= 2.37

2013= 3.98

2012= 2.55


 

2017 GB by comparison = 2.11

Player

Team

Position

Total Snaps

Off Snaps

Off Snap Pct

Def Snaps

Def Snap Pct

ST Snaps

ST Snap Pct

97-K.Clark

GB

DL

757

0

0.0%

688

65.2%

69

16.3%

76-M.Daniels

GB

DL

689

0

0.0%

630

59.7%

59

13.9%

94-D.Lowry

GB

DL

624

0

0.0%

496

47.0%

128

30.2%

91-Q.Dial

GB

DL

409

0

0.0%

309

29.3%

100

23.6%

90-M.Adams

GB

DL

87

0

0.0%

65

6.2%

22

5.2%

94-R.Jean Francois

GB

DL

61

0

0.0%

60

5.7%

1

0.2%


 

Back to the initial questions

  1. What does a Mike Pettine Defense look like?  

  2. What type of personnel does he need?

 

I am not sure many of us really know what the 2018 GB defense will consist of.  Could be more base 3-4, could be a good deal of hybrid and subpackages.

If the trio of Daniels, Clark and Wilkerson get each log around 60% of the defensive snaps and Adams and Lowry can be around 30%, that is accounting for 240% which would put the defensive line at 2.40 per snap.   If Dial or another DL is brought in to take a small % or a mid round draft pick, we may be looking at a higher use of 3DL and a more aggressive front in generating pressure. This could help offset the (currently huge) need of an EDGE rusher being added or drafted early.  

It may be possible that a Vinny Curry or other player could fill that DL depth.  There may be bigger changes in the defensive side of things that will significantly alter the draft needs.  

Interested in seeing what this upcoming few weeks of FA and then the draft has for some potential answers.  Maybe the pass rush can be found from other means besides the EDGE OLB position and the focus can be shifted to the CB group for the early part of the draft.  

 

Thoughts???

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Yeah that's a really interesting question. I get feeling Pettine will skew the defense toward whatever it's strengths happen to be as far as personnel. If that turns out to be the DL, which it currently is by far, then i could definitely see a bunch more 3 man fronts than we saw last year. 

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3 minutes ago, Kepler said:

Yeah that's a really interesting question. I get feeling Pettine will skew the defense toward whatever it's strengths happen to be as far as personnel. If that turns out to be the DL, which it currently is by far, then i could definitely see a bunch more 3 man fronts than we saw last year. 

It still does not negate the need for more and better CB than what is currently on the roster.   But if 1 of Ward/Fitzpatrick/James were to be there at 14, GB could take one of them and still add another CB in the 2nd or 3rd to add quality.  

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My thoughts are that I am extremely grateful for posters like yourself who take the time and effort to produce high quality work around here

There's so much we don't know yet about what Pettine wants, I suspect he'll keep it that way until after the draft. But whether its more DL per snap or a fresher rotation of DL per game is TBD and likely to be somewhat opponent specific. The DL as currently constructed is a nice mix of youth and vets and looks solid going into 2018.

One article I came across noted the steady drop in time-to-pass across the entire NFL - that means the ball is coming out faster and faster. Perhaps that also means that the pass rush up the middle has even more value going forward. Those guys are the closest to the QB and can get there quicker than the 5,7,9 techs can from the traditional alignments. More DL may also offer better protection for the smaller "hybrid" ILBs like Burnett/Jones and others across the league

Pettine spent time in several few systems, including Seattle and Pete Carroll and Rex Ryan are both noted for their defensive aptitudes- we'll see what he gleaned from those guys and how he marries it to the roster. He said stopping the pass is Job 1 under his guidance

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Interesting information.

I'm wondering if the Browns data is colored by the Browns being a terrible team who got run on a lot in clock kill situations. 

In 2015 when they were 3-13 they played a lot more DL than they did in 2014. 

The 2013 number should really be 2.61. You're not counting the edge group in any of the other years, but that's Football Outsiders. 

I'd even argue that both Quinton Coples and Ricky Sapp were edge rushers with the Jets in 2012. That puts that number down to 2.06 if you feel that's the case. Both are tweeners.

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Just now, squire12 said:

It still does not negate the need for more and better CB than what is currently on the roster.   But if 1 of Ward/Fitzpatrick/James were to be there at 14, GB could take one of them and still add another CB in the 2nd or 3rd to add quality.  

Even so, do you think that would turn the secondary into a position of more strength, or equal to, the strength of our current DL? I think if the secondary was strong enough we'd see more hybrid than 3 DL, but it would take significant upgrades to do so. 

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3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Interesting information.

I'm wondering if the Browns data is colored by the Browns being a terrible team who got run on a lot in clock kill situations. 

In 2015 when they were 3-13 they played a lot more DL than they did in 2014. 

The 2013 number should really be 2.61. You're not counting the edge group in any of the other years, but that's Football Outsiders. 

I'd even argue that both Quinton Coples and Ricky Sapp were edge rushers with the Jets in 2012. That puts that number down to 2.06 if you feel that's the case. Both are tweeners.

Tough to judge actual DL per snaps when things get skewed with guys dropping down into inside pass rusher situations.  I agree the DL numbers will get determined by many factors including what the opponent is trying to do against you and how good you are at stopping the run or pass.  

Regarding the Coples and Sapp, that is part of what I am thinking might affect Nick Perry.  Maybe he is going to be more of a DL and that also opens the door for other draft pick options at "4-3" DE vs 3-4 OLB.  Yes they are still EDGE rushers, but you get more options to pick from.

Some players that might be in play include

Rasheem Green, Breeland Speaks, Jayln Holmes, Tyquan Lewis, Chad Thomas

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1 minute ago, squire12 said:

Tough to judge actual DL per snaps when things get skewed with guys dropping down into inside pass rusher situations.  I agree the DL numbers will get determined by many factors including what the opponent is trying to do against you and how good you are at stopping the run or pass.  

Regarding the Coples and Sapp, that is part of what I am thinking might affect Nick Perry.  Maybe he is going to be more of a DL and that also opens the door for other draft pick options at "4-3" DE vs 3-4 OLB.  Yes they are still EDGE rushers, but you get more options to pick from.

Some players that might be in play include

Rasheem Green, Breeland Speaks, Jayln Holmes, Tyquan Lewis, Chad Thomas

Couldn't have put it better. Only thing I might disagree on is your statement that this is a new development. This defense has needed an interior rush specialist for 2 years. That was going to be on the wish list for every DC. 

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11 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

My thoughts are that I am extremely grateful for posters like yourself who take the time and effort to produce high quality work around here

There's so much we don't know yet about what Pettine wants, I suspect he'll keep it that way until after the draft. But whether its more DL per snap or a fresher rotation of DL per game is TBD and likely to be somewhat opponent specific. The DL as currently constructed is a nice mix of youth and vets and looks solid going into 2018.

One article I came across noted the steady drop in time-to-pass across the entire NFL - that means the ball is coming out faster and faster. Perhaps that also means that the pass rush up the middle has even more value going forward. Those guys are the closest to the QB and can get there quicker than the 5,7,9 techs can from the traditional alignments. More DL may also offer better protection for the smaller "hybrid" ILBs like Burnett/Jones and others across the league

Pettine spent time in several few systems, including Seattle and Pete Carroll and Rex Ryan are both noted for their defensive aptitudes- we'll see what he gleaned from those guys and how he marries it to the roster. He said stopping the pass is Job 1 under his guidance

I appreciate the kind words.   Not sure I have any answers to these questions, but I think it is worth considering with the addition of Wilkerson, that GB may be playing more 3 DL vs the 2DL in Capers D.  

Ultimately, I was looking for a silver lining in the current state of the CB group and the need for EDGE rusher to be added in the draft.  There are only so many high draft picks to be had.  With likely needs for high picks to be used at  EDGE, CB, WR, CB.....it would be nice to lessen the need for an EDGE, or at least open the player pool to others to fillout the DL/EDGE rotation.

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2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Couldn't have put it better. Only thing I might disagree on is your statement that this is a new development. This defense has needed an interior rush specialist for 2 years. That was going to be on the wish list for every DC. 

It may not be a new development, but it might be a necessary new way of most of us here thinking about how and what types of players needs to be acquired for the Mike Pettine defense to succeed.  Having gone through the TCMD process and realizing that there are some really good pass rushers that come in a variety of positions, shapes and body sizes, I needed to look past the EDGE rusher group.  

I think it was you that pointed it out after the Wilkerson signing that the D might look much more like a 4-3 under....and quite frankly after having been viewing and thinking along the lines of the Capers 3-4/sub package for 8 years, my thought process and assessment needed to change.  Just hard to do and to really know what to be looking for until I can see the Pettine defense on the field.  

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Finally did what I should have done a long time ago and bought the NFL Game Pass.

Watching the 2014 Browns.

Anybody have specific questions regarding Pettine's defenses?

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1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Finally did what I should have done a long time ago and bought the NFL Game Pass.

Watching the 2014 Browns.

Anybody have specific questions regarding Pettine's defenses?

Did you not read the OP.....

 

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

What does a Mike Pettine Defense look like?  

What type of personnel does he need?

 

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22 minutes ago, squire12 said:

It may not be a new development, but it might be a necessary new way of most of us here thinking about how and what types of players needs to be acquired for the Mike Pettine defense to succeed.  Having gone through the TCMD process and realizing that there are some really good pass rushers that come in a variety of positions, shapes and body sizes, I needed to look past the EDGE rusher group. 

I took exactly the same from your mock draft. I now have an interest in a number of later pass rushers I hadn't looked at before, guys like Carter, Ejiofor, Turay, Adeniyi.

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1 minute ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I took exactly the same from your mock draft. I now have an interest in a number of later pass rushers I hadn't looked at before, guys like Carter, Ejiofor, Turay, Adeniyi.

That was one of the attractions to Kentavius Street.  Interior pass rush specialist.  

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38 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Tough to judge actual DL per snaps when things get skewed with guys dropping down into inside pass rusher situations.  I agree the DL numbers will get determined by many factors including what the opponent is trying to do against you and how good you are at stopping the run or pass.  

Regarding the Coples and Sapp, that is part of what I am thinking might affect Nick Perry.  Maybe he is going to be more of a DL and that also opens the door for other draft pick options at "4-3" DE vs 3-4 OLB.  Yes they are still EDGE rushers, but you get more options to pick from.

Some players that might be in play include

Rasheem Green, Breeland Speaks, Jayln Holmes, Tyquan Lewis, Chad Thomas

Lewis, Holmes, and Speaks would be an absolute no for me; not thrilled with Green. Like Chad Thomas as a potential ELB. 

 

Still think that Perry should've been a speed rusher in a 4-3. I hope we essentially use him in the role he's played the past two years in particular.

 

I do wonder if Street's production was NC State was a product of so much attention towards Chubb...

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