Fl0nkerton Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 That's true. Losing a game because we gave up 10 field goals would be breaking... A lot of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, Fl0nkerton said: To me, bend but don't break is akin to "hold them to a field goal every possession" which is still like 30 -ish PPG. Doesn't really inspire hope lol 30's not really realistic though. plenty of teams have gotten their success from holding opponents to FG's instead of TD's. even the worst defenses prevent scores on 55% of drives at minimum. if you keep that score-% the same, you could conceivably reduce your opponent ppg by 2 points for every 10% of TD's you change into FG's (if you're on the lower/worse end of defenses and face a fairly high amount of possessions). 2ppg could be the difference between the #19 defense and the #10 defense. so there are tradeoffs involved. getting bombed for a TD in 1 play doesn't inspire much hope either. esp for young CB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, TransientTexan said: 30's not really realistic though. plenty of teams have gotten their success from holding opponents to FG's instead of TD's. even the worst defenses prevent scores on 55% of drives at minimum. if you keep that score-% the same, you could conceivably reduce your opponent ppg by 2 points for every 10% of TD's you change into FG's (if you're on the lower/worse end of defenses and face a fairly high amount of possessions). 2ppg could be the difference between the #19 defense and the #10 defense. so there are tradeoffs involved. getting bombed for a TD in 1 play doesn't inspire much hope either. esp for young CB's. I get the hatred for it because our defense was billed as that for a while and sucked. But often it would have sucked no matter what we did. So you play conservative and hope they make a mistake. The better you actually are the more it works, often we weren't very good so the strategy gets a lot of blame. I get it. It kind of goes against human competitive spirit in a way even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TransientTexan Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, Norm said: I get the hatred for it because our defense was billed as that for a while and sucked. But often it would have sucked no matter what we did. So you play conservative and hope they make a mistake. The better you actually are the more it works, often we weren't very good so the strategy gets a lot of blame. I get it. It kind of goes against human competitive spirit in a way even I just think it's more the result of having a bad defense than the cause and people confuse correlation with causation in the effort to find a scapegoat (like the booth-DC vs. sideline-DC arguments). DC strategies don't exist in a vacuum. They can change depending on the talent level available at different spots on the roster. The defense was bad the last couple seasons because of the poor secondary, particularly the CB's. And when you have bad CB's, you give them safety help to limit the damage. That doesn't mean that the safety help is what caused the defense to be bad in the first place. It could very well have prevented the damage from being even worse. But some of the binary thinkers believe everything that's sub-par is equally bad and that there are no gradations of anything, so there are no trade-offs to be risked in "change". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Whatever cause/effect/correlation, it seemed to me that last year HaHa often played too deep, and adjusted-as-the-play-developed to maintain an excessive cushion. Even on 3rd downs. So often would be coming up for the tackle, too late to prevent the first-down catch beyond the sticks, even on 3rd downs. I hope they are more aggressive on not conceding 3rd-down completions this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 1 hour ago, TransientTexan said: I just think it's more the result of having a bad defense than the cause and people confuse correlation with causation in the effort to find a scapegoat (like the booth-DC vs. sideline-DC arguments). DC strategies don't exist in a vacuum. They can change depending on the talent level available at different spots on the roster. The defense was bad the last couple seasons because of the poor secondary, particularly the CB's. And when you have bad CB's, you give them safety help to limit the damage. That doesn't mean that the safety help is what caused the defense to be bad in the first place. It could very well have prevented the damage from being even worse. But some of the binary thinkers believe everything that's sub-par is equally bad and that there are no gradations of anything, so there are no trade-offs to be risked in "change". I need to hire you to speak for me. Exactly my thoughts, I'm just too stupid to explain them that eloquently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Norm said: I need to hire you to speak for me. From where the Sun now stands, Norm will post no more, forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, craig said: Whatever cause/effect/correlation, it seemed to me that last year HaHa often played too deep, and adjusted-as-the-play-developed to maintain an excessive cushion. Even on 3rd downs. So often would be coming up for the tackle, too late to prevent the first-down catch beyond the sticks, even on 3rd downs. I hope they are more aggressive on not conceding 3rd-down completions this year. Isn't that because your corners suck and they can't be trusted... You keep him close and the crap corner gets beat over the top, then he can't get there. And that guys running for six. There's no real answer when you don't have the players. Catch 22. The alternative always SEEMS better, but it's hard to know if it is. I didn't like Dom for a couple reasons. But he wasn't so stupid that he did things like that for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Fl0nkerton said: That's true. Losing a game because we gave up 10 field goals would be breaking... A lot of things I just realized what your user ID is. Are you from Iceland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craig Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Norm said: Isn't that because your corners suck and they can't be trusted... You keep him close and the crap corner gets beat over the top, then he can't get there. And that guys running for six. There's no real answer when you don't have the players. Catch 22. The alternative always SEEMS better, but it's hard to know if it is. I didn't like Dom for a couple reasons. But he wasn't so stupid that he did things like that for no reason. Yes that's the theory. Giving away free uncontested 1st-downs is obviously preferable to giving away free, easy, uncontested TD's, point well taken! So yeah, exactly as you've been discussing, I'm hoping the corner play is improved enough so that HaHa and the coaches don't feel the necessity to give away free uncontested first downs anymore. Other thought, is that there is always some risk evaluation. Even with the same personnel, two different coaches may take a different risk approach, and might be more willing to accept the increased risk over the top in order to take away the uncontested first downs. Perhaps Pettine may possibly accept increased over-the-top risk in order to core consistently contest first-down completions? And hopefully improved corner play will as-you-say so significantly reduce the risk over-the-top that HaHa is freed up to break up a first down now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 34 minutes ago, craig said: Even with the same personnel, two different coaches may take a different risk approach, and might be more willing to accept the increased risk over the top in order to take away the uncontested first downs. And might struggle just as much, that's what I'm getting at. I know it's more noble to go down fighting, but that doesn't mean it actually works better. As a fan, we could have done opposite last year, and got nailed deep all the time and we'd be going "why didn't we leave a guy deep and trust the other guys" There's no one answer, I understand you guys. I'm not trying to rip ya, I just think it's not as obvious to NOT do what we did and you will succeed as much as it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fl0nkerton Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 16 hours ago, Norm said: I just realized what your user ID is. Are you from Iceland? Unfortunately not. Just a big fan of the sport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted August 17, 2018 Share Posted August 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/08/17/packers-cb-josh-jackson-and-the-value-of-takeaways/ "The game of football is about plays that change the scoreboard and plays that change possession. Josh Jackson made a play that did both on Thursday night, and it won’t be the last time he does." Article talks about the reasons why Jackson was downgraded in the draft process and then notes his ability to make impact plays anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopackgonerd Posted August 18, 2018 Share Posted August 18, 2018 Think Jackson will start opposite King if he plays well again in the third game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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