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MY FIRST MOCK EVER - 2 ROUND ADDED - EDITED 3/25


Jayteedee

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7 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

If Vita Vea is still available in the mid-20's, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Vikings move up to grab him.  He would be a great value there.

I agree. If that happened, I could see Cincinnati potentially being the target given their needs. 

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42 minutes ago, Jayteedee said:

If trading to #2, I suspect that you would be giving up 5, 40, 71 and a 1st Round Pick in 2019 at a minimum.  The Jets paid 2 to 1 in Value to move from the 6 spot up to 3 and I would expect the Broncos will probably have to pay more when you consider that the Bills will offer 12, 22, 53, 56 and  a 1st round pick next year and that may not get them to 2.  

Why would it cost that much more to trade from 5 to 2 than the Jets did from 6 to 3?  The Jets traded three second rounders to move up from 6 to 3, so it's going to take two second rounders and a third to trade up from five to four.  But that's actually not even the worst trade in this mock.  You have the Bucs giving up two second rounders to trade up two spots and pass on Barkley and Nelson.

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2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

As a Browns fan, I'd love this. But it seems highly unrealistic we could acquire all of that by doing minor trade downs.

I honestly believe that Pick 4 will be in play.  Let's say that the Giants take Barkley at 2.  Then, I would suspect the Jets would take Rosen at 3.  

Then, the four slot becomes a war between Buffalo and Denver.  If I were the Browns, I would prefer to stay up higher, but, Buffalo is going to offer 12, 22, 53 and I would want their 1st pick next year.  With Denver, they'd give up at least 5, 40 (Maybe 71) and a pick next year.  The downside with Denver is that with a capable quarterback a 2019 pick becomes less valuable because they might be a playoff team.  Whereas, Buffalo is going to be terrible.  

While I would hate to lose out on Barkley,  both the Bills and Denver are going to be desperate to move up. Trading with Denver gives you access to Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Nelson or Ward and you could trade down again depending on who you like. 

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1 minute ago, Crickett said:

Why would it cost that much more to trade from 5 to 2 than the Jets did from 6 to 3?  The Jets traded three second rounders to move up from 6 to 3, so it's going to take two second rounders and a third to trade up from five to four.  But that's actually not even the worst trade in this mock.  You have the Bucs giving up two second rounders to trade up two spots and pass on Barkley and Nelson.

If you look at draft value charts, pick 2 (2,600 points)  is disproportionately worth more than pick 3 (2,200 points).  Plus, quarterback is the most premium position in the league.   Pick 5 (1,700 points)  and Pick 40 (500 points), Pick 71 (235 points)  do not add up to the value of Pick 2.   So, to get to pick 2, no one is going to give it to Denver for value.  They are going to have to overpay with a future pick.   When you consider the unknown and the premium that Denver would have to overpay, then, Denver is going to give up at least a 1st round pick in 2019 if not more. 

The problem is that if the Giants don't take Rosen at pick 2 and instead pick Barkley, then, the Jets surely will at pick Rosen at 3.  

The Buccaneers need defense badly.  It is either Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Ward according to the pundits. The Colts at 6 are going to take either Chubb or Nelson and I would bet that Tampa really would like to add Chubb.   Them having Barkley does not fix their pass rush problems as they were dead last 32nd in the league last year.  

The bottom line is that Denver can really use a quarterback and it is the most premium position in the draft. Personally, I think that Josh Allen may be the best long-term play of the quarterbacks and in today's NFL you are going to pay a premium to find out if that is true or not if you do not own the pick. 

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2 hours ago, Jayteedee said:

Given that they extended Bortles, I figured that Jacksonville really ought to look at upgrading their pass offense as it looks like that they have a window with that defense, offensive line and Fournette.  I was surprised that Bortles played as well as he did in the playoffs. Does he continue to improve, plateau or regress. 

Regarding Jackson, the $64,000 question is that if his mobility is hampered or taken away (i.e. RG-III) can he survive as a pure pocket passer?  I figure that any rookie quarterback is going to take time to develop and having seen Jackson play, I am not sold on him being an adequate enough passer in the NFL.   The Jags could always move up in the 2nd round to get him or sit tight and wait on a  Luke Falk; however, I will make the change. 

The Bortles deal is essentially a two year deal.

They might take a WR later in the Draft but I feel like they are comfortable with Lee/Moncrief/Westbrook/Cole/Maybe Hurns?

We still don’t have a backup QB. I feel like they will take a QB high (Jackson or Rudolph) and let them sit behind Blake. Neither one are ready to play right away.

If I am wrong and they don’t go QB, my 2nd guess would be OL. Coughlin loves building the trenches.

 

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1 hour ago, Jayteedee said:

If you look at draft value charts, pick 2 (2,600 points)  is disproportionately worth more than pick 3 (2,200 points).  Plus, quarterback is the most premium position in the league.   Pick 5 (1,700 points)  and Pick 40 (500 points), Pick 71 (235 points)  do not add up to the value of Pick 2.   So, to get to pick 2, no one is going to give it to Denver for value.  They are going to have to overpay with a future pick.   When you consider the unknown and the premium that Denver would have to overpay, then, Denver is going to give up at least a 1st round pick in 2019 if not more. 

The problem is that if the Giants don't take Rosen at pick 2 and instead pick Barkley, then, the Jets surely will at pick Rosen at 3.  

The Buccaneers need defense badly.  It is either Chubb, Fitzpatrick, Ward according to the pundits. The Colts at 6 are going to take either Chubb or Nelson and I would bet that Tampa really would like to add Chubb.   Them having Barkley does not fix their pass rush problems as they were dead last 32nd in the league last year.  

The bottom line is that Denver can really use a quarterback and it is the most premium position in the draft. Personally, I think that Josh Allen may be the best long-term play of the quarterbacks and in today's NFL you are going to pay a premium to find out if that is true or not if you do not own the pick. 

 

The Buccaneers need a running back and offensive line help badly too,  Their top two running backs right now are Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers.  They cut Doug Martin and let Charles Sims walk.  Their current left guard is 404: File not found.  If the "pundits" think they will take Chubb, Fitzpatrick and Ward, I'm going to assume it's because those same pundits think at least one of them will have already been taken. But it's even worse in this mock, because you have the Bucs trading away their second round pick which could be used to fill one of those other very dire needs to trade up for a defensive end. 

 

If you're going to use that logic, why not just go all in and have Denver trade their next twenty-seven first rounders?  After all, it's a "premium", right? The Jets paid an actual premium to trade up from 6 to 3.  I don't think the Broncos would need to pay quite so much to move up one spot from #5 to #4.  If you need evidence, look at how comparatively little Chicago had to pay to move up from #3 to #2.  A jump you claim is much bigger.

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1 hour ago, Crickett said:

 

The Buccaneers need a running back and offensive line help badly too,  Their top two running backs right now are Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers.  They cut Doug Martin and let Charles Sims walk.  Their current left guard is 404: File not found.  If the "pundits" think they will take Chubb, Fitzpatrick and Ward, I'm going to assume it's because those same pundits think at least one of them will have already been taken. But it's even worse in this mock, because you have the Bucs trading away their second round pick to fill one of those other very dire needs to trade up for a defensive end.

 

If you're going to use that logic, why not just go all in and have Denver trade their next twenty-seven first rounders?  After all, it's a "premium", right? The Jets paid an actual premium to trade up from 6 to 3.  I don't think the Broncos would need to pay quite so much to move up one spot from #5 to #4.  If you need evidence, look at how comparatively little Chicago had to pay to move up from #3 to #2.  A jump you claim is much bigger.

But the rub is what is the market to get your guy?  San Francisco had no one else beating down their door to get Trubisky and they wanted Solomon Thomas. The 49ers blew some smoke in the air and came away with 3 extra picks without any competition for the pick. 

In this draft, if Josh Allen or Josh Rosen are sitting there at 4, there is going to be an all out bidding war. I don't know any other way to put it. I will predict the Bills will be willing to give up a minimum of Pick 12, Pick 22 and a 1st Round Pick next year. The Dolphins and Cardinals could get involved   Then, the question becomes are the Browns willing to drop that far.

If the Browns are willing to drop, then, do the Broncos sit on their hands or do they make an offer to get their quarterback.   With their defense and receivers, all they really need is the quarterback to make it work. Again, Chubb, Fitzpatrick or Barkley are all very good prospects. They are not going to win you championships without a QB 

Historically, If you flip picks and Using the 2017 draft, are you willing to get a guaranteed Josh Allen/Josh Rosen for whomever Pick 5 is plus Curtis Samuel (40) and Raekwon McMillan (54)?  

If you use the 2016 draft, pick (40) - Dorial Green Beckham and (54) Ameer Abdullah?

If you use the 2015 draft pick (40) -  Kyle Van Noy and (54) Bishop Sankey?

Now, If Mayfield happens to be the fourth guy, I think that the market shrinks and Denver should stay put. But, John Elway is going to have a decision on his hands to make 

If Elway believes that Allen or Rosen are the guy, why wouldn't Denver gladly give up the equivalent of the players listed above to get your franchise quarterback?  If the Broncos get a quarterback who can play, they could make some noise quickly which lessens the cost if you are dealing future draft picks. 

Say if the top 3 QB's are gone and  Buffalo is going to go all-in to get Josh Allen, then, what does Denver have to pay to get the player that they want? 

 

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That trade is laughable.....1st the Broncos won't trade up.

2nd Do you remember what Chicago has traded to move up 1 position?

3rd Any mock that doesn't include the Bills trading to the top 5 is already wrong.

4th I really hope Elway shows that he doesn't has lost it completely and he pick the non-QB BPA.

 

I really don't know why people think Keenum is the next Glennon

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I never even heard Of Uchenna Nwosu! I had to look him up just to find out you are giving the Titans a guy that's gonna go day 3! To top it off you got Rashaan Evans, and Leighton Vander esch still on the board. Shame on you sir shame! 

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26. Atlanta Falcons – Vita Vea – DL – Washington

The Falcons get a player of need with this pick as they need help across the interior defensive line.  Vea will toughen up the interior of the line in a position of need.

Would be the greatest thing we could hope for but highly unlikely sadly :)

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8 hours ago, BowserBroncos said:

That trade is laughable.....1st the Broncos won't trade up.

2nd Do you remember what Chicago has traded to move up 1 position?

3rd Any mock that doesn't include the Bills trading to the top 5 is already wrong.

4th I really hope Elway shows that he doesn't has lost it completely and he pick the non-QB BPA.

 

I really don't know why people think Keenum is the next Glennon

Because Case Keenum was good for like 11 games of his entire career so far. And Denver has significantly less weapons than Minnesota. I don't expect Keenum to be anywhere above the 20th best QB in the league. The Broncos still need a QB.

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