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vike daddy

2018 Schedule

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21 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

Your statement of "So there’s no particular advantage for the home team on a Thursday night compared to any other prime time game." may or may not be true based on the strength of the home team.

I presented 5 years worth of prime time games,  nearly 250 games of evidence.

The home team’s record in those games is 143-104-1, a .577 winning percentage. In TNF games in particular home teams also have a .577 winning percentage. 

So there’s no evidence that TNF is particularly an advantage for home teams compared to prime time games in general.

I don’t hear anyone complaining about the SNF game with the Saints or the MNF game in Seattle, so I don’t think the TNF game in LA is especially a disadvantage, compared to playing another other good team on the road in prime time on another night.

If your theory is that better home teams have a better TNF record than they do in other games, you’ll have to show that yourself. Bear in mind that if you do a subgroup analysis, your data set will be smaller and it’ll be harder to draw confident conclusions. 

If that’s too much work for you, feel free to just continue complaining baselessly about that one aspect of the schedule. I guess you might as well not even watch the Rams game, since it’s a guaranteed L for the Vikings. 

Edited by Krauser

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30 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

So you're saying that if the home team is a better than .500 team they are more likely to win on Thursday nights? In other news when the temperature is above freezing, water is wet.

It's more so that is the home team is better then 0.500 they may play above/better than there expected win % since they are more capable of taking advantage of the short road week for the opposition.

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7 hours ago, Krauser said:

If your theory is that better home teams have a better TNF record than they do in other games, you’ll have to show that yourself. Bear in mind that if you do a subgroup analysis, your data set will be smaller and it’ll be harder to draw confident conclusions. 

If that’s too much work for you, feel free to just continue complaining baselessly about that one aspect of the schedule. I guess you might as well not even watch the Rams game, since it’s a guaranteed L for the Vikings. 

a Krauser Burn is a very painful experience....

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1 hour ago, vike daddy said:

a Krauser Burn is a very painful experience....

Lol at a "Krauser burn", he actually didn't state anything in that post. Typically s\he is more wrong in predictions than right.

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This is 3 straight years finishing the season home against Chicago, right? 

Brilliant, NFL. Brilliant. 

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The NFL released its entire schedule on Thursday night. Here are the five matchups that will determine whether they repeat last season’s 13-3 performance, slide back to a Wild Card playoff team or miss the postseason…

Week 2: at Packers

Assuming the Packers and Aaron Rodgers get on the same page, the future Hall of Fame quarterback will be back to form and looking for revenge. Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr knocked Rodgers with a collarbone injury in last year’s matchup at US Bank Stadium. The Packers crushed the Vikings the last time he faced them at Lambeau Field in Week 16 of the 2016 season. Mike Zimmer’s road defense, which struggled to pressure the QB last year, will get its first tough test against one of the best QBs in the NFL.

Week 4: at Rams

The Vikings and Rams will have to play on short notice. Following a Week 3 matchup with the Bills, Minnesota travels to the City of Angels looking to go 2-for-2 against Sean McVay. However, the Rams are expected to be one of the league’s best teams, especially after adding Marcus Peters, Aquib Talib and Ndamukong Suh to their defense. If Kirk Cousins can perform well against the Rams’ stacked D, he can beat anybody.

Week 5: at Eagles

With a little extra time to prepare, the Vikings will be ready for a rematch with the Super Bowl champions. Philadelphia dominated the Vikings in the NFC title game, making Week 5 a must-watch matchup. While fans might have been happy to open the season at home, Eagles QB Carson Wentz will have time to get back into form following his recovery from a knee injury that ended his 2017 season. This will be Zimmer’s best test. Will he get out-coached again by Doug Pederson? Will he be able to create pressure on Wentz? A win in Philly would make the Vikings a favorite in the NFC.

Week 8: vs. Saints

This game isn’t just about the Minneapolis Miracle. If the Vikings are in a race for playoff position, this matchup could play tiebreaker. New Orleans improved this offseason after building one of the best all-around teams last season. Now young players like Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore could take the next step. And, like Rodgers, you can bet Drew Brees will be gearing up to perform against the Vikings.

Week 16: at Lions 

The Lions are one of the most difficult teams to predict. New head coach Matt Patricia should bring them more strength on defense. Considering Detroit ranked seventh in scoring in 2017, they may be an average defense away from being a legitimate contender for the NFC North. Vikings players will certainly be happy to have Thanksgiving off this year, but heading to Detroit with a division title or even a playoff spot on the line could make for a tough matchup… and great drama.

https://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/04/five-games-will-shape-vikings-2018-season/

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On 4/20/2018 at 8:18 PM, SteelKing728 said:

This is 3 straight years finishing the season home against Chicago, right? 

Brilliant, NFL. Brilliant. 

They always dismiss the Vikings as a factor.  They really want the division to be between the Lions-Packers.

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Why is finishing the season at home against the Bears a bad thing?

Week 17 games are almost always division match ups, so playing at home against the Bears is pretty much a best-case scenario

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14 minutes ago, Heimdallr said:

Why is finishing the season at home against the Bears a bad thing?

Week 17 games are almost always division match ups, so playing at home against the Bears is pretty much a best-case scenario

It's not a bad thing for us, but the perception is bad, because we've always been led to believe that they want "captivating' matchups that decide division titles in Week 17.  So, the fact that they continually schedule the Vikings against what is probably going to still be a pretty poor Bears team tells us that they still don't really respect the Vikings and view that a Packers-Lions matchup is still far more likely to decide the division than the Vikings against either the Packers or Lions.  

IMO, it'd be a lot more fair to rotate the divisional matchups in Week 17 from year to year on a 6-year cycle (Home/Road), which is what I thought was actually supposed to happen.    

Edited by disaacs

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35 minutes ago, disaacs said:

It's not a bad thing for us, but the perception is bad, because we've always been led to believe that they want "captivating' matchups that decide division titles in Week 17.  So, the fact that they continually schedule the Vikings against what is probably going to still be a pretty poor Bears team tells us that they still don't really respect the Vikings and view that a Packers-Lions matchup is still far more likely to decide the division than the Vikings against either the Packers or Lions.  

IMO, it'd be a lot more fair to rotate the divisional matchups in Week 17 from year to year on a 6-year cycle (Home/Road), which is what I thought was actually supposed to happen.    

It prolly means they are predicting the Vikings are NFCN champs by week 14, and Packers-Lions are fighting for the Wild Card spot.

The Vikings trying to secure HFA is not a big compelling story.

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1 hour ago, disaacs said:

It's not a bad thing for us, but the perception is bad, because we've always been led to believe that they want "captivating' matchups that decide division titles in Week 17.  So, the fact that they continually schedule the Vikings against what is probably going to still be a pretty poor Bears team tells us that they still don't really respect the Vikings and view that a Packers-Lions matchup is still far more likely to decide the division than the Vikings against either the Packers or Lions.  

IMO, it'd be a lot more fair to rotate the divisional matchups in Week 17 from year to year on a 6-year cycle (Home/Road), which is what I thought was actually supposed to happen.    

How often do divisions go down to the very last game? It doesn't seem to happen very often. To me, putting Week 16 possibly makes it more important.

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I love reading behind-the-scenes stuff like this:

Each work day since Jan. 2—two days after the regular season ended—the team fed data from a complex series of factors into computers in the Cloud. And when the team would come in the next day, Carey would be responsible for collecting the schedules, and figuring which ones were the most attractive, and might pass muster with Katz, the veteran final gatekeeper. He’s the heir to the late Pinchbeck, who used to make the schedule by hand. Pinchbeck’s ancient corkboard is on the far wall (an homage to the legendary NFL broadcast/schedule czar in the Rozelle era) behind Carey’s desk. It’s hard to move in this tight room, maybe eight-feet-by-18-feet, with the shades permanently drawn for four months over the big window to the hall outside. Privacy’s the watchword here. The only league employee who can walk in without an invitation? Roger Goodell.

This year, Carey instituted another quality check to the schedule: “rest disparity.” Last year, I heard the Giants were not pleased with their schedule because they felt they were too often playing teams more rested than they were. In consecutive October weeks, they played teams coming off byes, for instance. The NFL calculated a figure for every team based on the number of combined days of rest for their foes or for the team, calculating, for instance, in those two weeks, the Giants were a minus-14 (minus-seven for each of the foes, Seattle and Denver, coming off byes). In all, by my math, the Giants were a league-worst minus-22 in “rest disparity.” So Carey factored that into every schedule this year … and this year, no team was worse than minus-11. (The Giants, by my count, are minus-seven in 2018.)

Carey would put each schedule into a program the NFL has called the analyzer, measuring for key games (all prime-time games, and network doubleheader games), rest disparity, three-game road trips, being home Sunday after Monday night road games, and smaller factors like making sure more doubleheader games made it into the Los Angeles and New York markets. There were other permanent stadium-block X factors, including mega-concerts like Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran, and Jay Z/Beyonce running into the fall. (The Cowboys stadium, for instance, has dates for all three.) Then she’d print out the best schedules and give them, in order, to Katz at the start of his day.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/19/schedule-release-teams-thursday-tv-mmqb-peter-king

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Wasn't sure where to put this, but interesting that the season after our last three conference championship game appearances, we won at least five fewer games than the previous year all three times.

2010: -6
2001: -6
1999: -5

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1 minute ago, Klomp said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, but interesting that the season after our last three conference championship game appearances, we won at least five fewer games than the previous year all three times.

2010: -6
2001: -6
1999: -5

2010 - Veteran squad that fell off...and a lot of chaos

2001 - Followed abrupt retirement of Robert Smith and Korey Stringer death

1999 - Jeff George.   

 

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