kurgan's mock 3.0--St. Paddy's Hangover

[43M]

11 minutes ago, Alex said:

Another way to look at this. We have tagged Le'Veon Bell; he hasn't signed the tag. 

We are buying more time for ourselves to look into options. This means looking at the running backs regardless.

If they truly feel like they can get somebody within a value, whether that's in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, the Steelers will have the next two options.

Trade away Le'Veon Bell or let him walk, albeit Josh Norman situation.

Trading away Bell for a pick may do us good in future, but not present. Letting Bell walk means; we now may have the luxury of absorbing a contract or sign somebody off the waiver wire. We got Joe Haden that way, I can imagine a team would let somebody really good walk too, this just also we have more time to add players than trading Bell away as far I'm concerned, may not happen until July. 

Again, Bell has to agree to sign the tag for the trade to happen, as far I'm concerned if he doesn't like where he's going he will hold out. 

I'd like to trade him to Buccaneers for their 2019 1st round. 

Realistically, we are more likely to let him walk than trading him. 

 

I can pretty safely guarantee that we wont pull the tag from him.

If we dont trade him, we will likely keep working towards a new deal, and if that doesnt happen (likely wont), he will walk next offseason.....and I can accept that.    What I cant accept is spending a high pick on a RB this year.    Could it happen?   Sure, but I will have less than pleasant remarks about our front office if it happens.

[Alex]

1 hour ago, FourThreeMafia said:

I can pretty safely guarantee that we wont pull the tag from him.

If we dont trade him, we will likely keep working towards a new deal, and if that doesnt happen (likely wont), he will walk next offseason.....and I can accept that.    What I cant accept is spending a high pick on a RB this year.    Could it happen?   Sure, but I will have less than pleasant remarks about our front office if it happens.

Even if it's for Ballage? He's a running back who plays in the slot as well. Heck, he returns the kick too. I'll have him in 3rd.

[warfelg]

9 hours ago, FourThreeMafia said:

Okay fine, fair enough.

I'm all about value in the draft, but to a point. On top of that, this is chess not checkers. What I mean by that is you have to be strategic and consider all the consequences of your move. You draft a running back in the second round you're going to piss off Bell. 

So, again... if we draft a running back early on, I'll be pounding the table to trade Bell. Will it happen? Probably not, but I'm not in favor of putting that many resources into the running back position. There are quality free agents we can sign if need be, plus the draft is deep at running back. The only back I would personally take early is Barkley, and that's obviously not happening.

So, one last time... Either keep Bell and continue trying to sign him long-term and draft a running back late, or draft a running back early and ship Bell off. Those are the only two options I'm in favor of. If you are in favor of keeping Bell this year and drafting a running back early, so be it. I respect it, I just completely disagree with it.

 

 

Ok.

Well like I said....to me I wouldn't be going into the draft planning to draft a running back.  But I'm not going to abandon my draft board because of a guy that I have for only one year.  Normally I see you being about planning ahead and thinking about these things, and this is one of the first times I've seen you against something like that.

Here's something out there:

If a guy get's pissed off because you took a great value on the board, and he isn't locked in as a long term part to your team, then screw him.  Seriously.

I've stated multiple times that I really want Bell back, and I'm one of the few that's willing to go almost up to his price.  I would be willing to go 4/$56 with $20 mil guaranteed, with another $10-13 mil that can lock in with incentives.  And I've been close to that $13-14 mil a year number for a while.  If he's still saying that, he's lost the right to have us ignore someone that's high on our board at a pick.

Jones is the best example I have.  Let's say we get to pick 60, and the board with rankings (This is my personal board BTW):

41 - Jones;  52 Justin Jones; 55 Mason Rudolph; 58 Ronnie Harrison; 59 Mike Gesicki; 60 Dorance Armstrong; 62 Justin Reid; 75 Jesse Bates

Are you willing to pass up 3 higher rated guys for Harrison, 6 for Reid, or 7 for Bates?

I'm personally not.

And that's not going with the intent to take a high RB.  Based off those rankings the intent at 60 is Harrison and Reid.  But you get that guy there at your pick and you thought he would be long gone....man you just can't say no.

[Dcash4]

I personally do not want a RB in this draft at all, unless they are a great value late or offer some third down/KR capabilities to be the ying to Connors yang. I view the running back position with Bell like I view QB: you dont need to find the next guy until the first guy leaves. I completely base that with Bell as being a true workhorse who is going to play all three downs and at least 85-90% of the snaps and above. Drafting his potential successor now only hinders your ability to find talent at areas of more need. 

Connor is the back up, and while I believe in his rushing capabilities the team didnt trust his pass protection at all - hence the reason he barely saw the field last year. I, personally, dont trust protecting our star QB with a rookie -- so if Injury was to happen to Bell, I would prefer us to find a vet anyway (something I think we would do regardless to fill his roster spot). So with that, I just dont think drafting a RB this year is important. 

Having said that, I also do not believe that drafting a running back will in anyway change Le'Veon approach to his play. Giving less can only hurt him -- somewhat literally. He has passed on the Steelers contract offer last year, they have reportedly raised their offer, and he has continued to turn them down. If he is willing to pass on contracts that get him paid well and support future finances, he is willing to "bet on himself" (something he has said) and at minimum continue to perform at a high level. 

Getting himself injured or having a down performing year are the two ways his plan doesnt work out. If he was going to give a less than steller effort, he is better off retiring for the year and letting his current resume speak for itself if he is available to all teams. If he plays and does not produce teams will look look at wear and tear being an issue, that his mental state is not worth the high dollar, that injuries have caught up to him -- etc. 

His goal is to have as many teams vying for his services as possible to create the highest dollars possible. Any backing down on performance can eliminate some of those teams with a running back getting closer to 30, having an injury history, getting a ton of touches in his career, and already asking for an uncomfortable amount of money for the position. To me if I put myself in his shoes, he has two options - actually retire and take the year off or play and try to be an All-Pro again. Both of those help his cause, any other option does not.

 

 

 

[43M]

1 hour ago, warfelg said:

If a guy get's pissed off because you took a great value on the board, and he isn't locked in as a long term part to your team, then screw him.  Seriously.
 

Okay okay.....so thats the thing....I COMPLETELY AGREE!!!  And thats pretty much been my point all along....

Its going to piss off Bell, so why not trade him, get value for him, and just move on....instead of dealing with 1) a guy who may not go all out for us week in and week out, 2) a potential locker room distraction and 3) a guy who we have no intention of keeping long term?

Quote

I've stated multiple times that I really want Bell back, and I'm one of the few that's willing to go almost up to his price.

Okay, again....this is something I agree on TO A POINT.   I personally dont really want to pay him the money he wants, but if we resign him....so be it.    

And if we are interested in retaining him long term, then just take a late round RB or sign someone in FA to compete with Frenchy,.    But we took a 3rd round RB last year and if we spend another early pick on RB this year, one of two things happen (both of which Im opposed to).  1) As mentioned many times, you piss off Bell since it makes the Steelers far less likely to sign him with their perceived leverage of having a replacement in place or 2) we still end up keeping Bell, but now you have invested far too much into a postion thats easy to find decent talent at, while ignoring positions we have bigger needs at that are much harder to find talent at.

As far as the whole value pick stuff......IMO, this draft class is deep, but not very top heavy with talent at any position (QB is arguable, but Im not nearly as high on this QB class as most).    After the first 10-15 players or so, I think you have a bunch of players between 15 and 60 that are pretty interchangeable in terms of talent.    The only way Id even remotely be okay with RB in the 2nd round is if it was absolutely insane value and there was no other players close at positions of need, but here is the thing.....that rarely happens.     Even with your rankings, the value wouldnt be enough to make me take a RB.

However, I fully concede that it COULD happen.   Again though...I would have major problems with it.

[warfelg]

I guess I'm very willing to play hardball with him.  If we end up with Sony Michel in the 3rd, we end up with him.  Even if we ignore the Bell thing, Connor shouldn't stop us from adding at the position.  Connor is coming off a knee injury (which he might not be ready for the season BTW), doesn't have long speed, and is far from a complete back.  The last thing could be said of Michel as he doesn't run between the tackles and isn't powerful.

Personally I really really want us to retain Bell.  I've stated a few times about how he gives us the flexibility to have a offense that can change formations, style, and pace without having to sub out.  In a hurry up situation, what he brings like that is invaluable IMO.  I always see people say that "well we still scored 30 with so and so" or "this guy still picked up 100 without Bell."  Clearly they aren't seeing how the game is impacted with Bell and the small things like Ben has easier throws, the deep window is open more, Ben get's hit less and less, the OLine is better because there's a guy for blitz pickup.

 

@FourThreeMafia trust me when I say I prefer we pay attention to other positions over RB in this draft.  All I'm saying is don't pass up a by far and away higher rated guy just because your afraid how a guy on a 1 year deal may react.  If he gets mad, I say whatever then retire if you want.  Who knows....maybe it does the opposite, lights a fire under his tail, and he has a great year.

 

I even feel this way about the QB's.  If we have one that much higher ranked and he's there at our 1st or 2nd round pick....don't wait and say "well we can get that next year".  Just take him if he's that much better on your board.  That's what we did in the early 2000's and late 1990's and we got so many good players that way.  We haven't been doing that lately, and we've been grabbing needs, and look where we're at.  We're selecting a higher 'bust' rate than ever before.