3 Draft Scenarios, Pick Your Favorite

[HuskieBear]

33 minutes ago, topwop1 said:

I get the feeling that Nelson goes to the Giants at #2 because I don't see them taking a QB and I think it's between him and Barkley for them with Nelson winning out due to o-line being a huge need.  If Nelson doesn't go to the Giants then the only other team I can see taking him in top-10 is Indy at 6.

If he makes it to Bears then I think it's a no brainer pick

 

Giants just traded JPP. I've read that they still like Davis Webb, who they took in the third last year, so make they grab Chubb at #2 instead

[Rogerthat]

Nelson and carter for me. Protect Mitch first hit the other QB second 

[IotaNet]

On 3/21/2018 at 2:10 PM, G08 said:

Then go back and look at how Andy Reid doesn't value guards, and how when Reid first got to KC and Pederson first got to Philadelphia they didn't invest 1st round picks or elite $$$ into guards. Then go even further and look at Harry Hiestand, a top-tier OL teacher and ask yourself why would he need someone like Nelson to groom -- especially when it could cost you an elite-level talent at a skill position.

Guards are a dime a dozen bros, Brad Biggs in his latest piece said numerous personnel evaluators told him it's the easiest position to fix in football.

That cinches selection 1 (Edmunds) for me. Hiestand was hired specifically to "coach up" the line. His presence gives Pace flexibility to divert precious draft capital elsewhere. When I combine that with Fangio's defensive mind, I see Edmunds being coached into a monster. I mean, dude is a 19 year old athletic freak, seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and comes from a successful football family. He and Floyd on the field at the same time is something *I* want to see!

[jumbo]

People talk about how Pace always takes a physical freak, but I don't think he's ever had a stud lock sitting there to take at the top of the draft and passed on it for the athlete.  Obviously last year they went with Trubisky.  

Take the Kevin White pick, in that draft there was a tier 1 group that ended with the pick before the Bears (Leonard Williams went 6, Amari Cooper 4).  Vis Beasley was available and probably should have been the pick, but I don't remember him being a "stud" type at the top.  Maybe he was and I don't remember.  

With Floyd, I felt like there were 7-8 players in the top tier.  Pace moved up from 11 to 9 to get Floyd (DeForest Buckner went 7, Ramsey went 5).  Tunsil was available, but he was fresh off the gasmask incident,  

I guess this is my way of saying that if a can't miss stud that starts Day 1 is there, however unlikely, I feel like he's taking that player over the physical freak.  So knowing that at least 3 QB's go 1,2,3, that means that Barkley, Chubb, Nelson (the true tier 1A group), maybe you include Fitzpatrick in that group, too.  If that's your top 7 then Pace just misses again.  Maybe 4 QB's go in the top 7 and Pace has Nelson or Fitzpatrick sitting there.  I think Edmunds is a bit raw, but he is absolutely the athlete with projection and would fit the mold after just missing the truly elite draft talent.  

 

[G08]

2 hours ago, IotaNet said:

That cinches selection 1 (Edmunds) for me. Hiestand was hired specifically to "coach up" the line. His presence gives Pace flexibility to divert precious draft capital elsewhere. When I combine that with Fangio's defensive mind, I see Edmunds being coached into a monster. I mean, dude is a 19 year old athletic freak, seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and comes from a successful football family. He and Floyd on the field at the same time is something *I* want to see!

Which is not to say that Nelson wouldn't be a hell of a player for us -- I'm not saying that at all -- I'm just saying lets maximize our draft. If Pace only loves one or two guards but likes 4 or 5 EDGE rushers, then take Nelson at #8 if he's there. I just don't think that's the case with this class. I see a couple outstanding LBs, one outstanding OG, and a bunch of solid interior OL prospects.

Take the elite talent at a harder position to fill then take one of the dozen or so interior OL that Harry Hiestand loves and wants to mold. It's pretty simple for me, but I'm just a dude on a message board lol.

[WindyCity]

2 hours ago, G08 said:

Which is not to say that Nelson wouldn't be a hell of a player for us -- I'm not saying that at all -- I'm just saying lets maximize our draft. If Pace only loves one or two guards but likes 4 or 5 EDGE rushers, then take Nelson at #8 if he's there. I just don't think that's the case with this class. I see a couple outstanding LBs, one outstanding OG, and a bunch of solid interior OL prospects.

Take the elite talent at a harder position to fill then take one of the dozen or so interior OL that Harry Hiestand loves and wants to mold. It's pretty simple for me, but I'm just a dude on a message board lol.

I don’t think bunk Edmunds is an elite prospect.

I think he has elite athletic ability and upside, but he has not shown himself to be elite on tape.

Lorenzo Carter is also an elite athlete with elite upside.

[G08]

46 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I think he has elite athletic ability and upside, but he has not shown himself to be elite on tape.

You can't have it both ways, though. If he was elite on tape he'd be a top 3 pick. You're banking on his youth, athleticism and upside. That's why a private visit with him is imperative. There's no sense in drafting him if Fangio and his staff do not think they can develop him.

[IronMike84]

I fully expect Pace to do everything he can to trade out of #40. Every time he finds a way to trade up, he also finds a way to trade back and recoup picks. That second rounder may be a late 2 rather than a guy who fell out of the 1st.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, IronMike84 said:

I fully expect Pace to do everything he can to trade out of #40. Every time he finds a way to trade up, he also finds a way to trade back and recoup picks. That second rounder may be a late 2 rather than a guy who fell out of the 1st.

All the more reason I think he needs to get the edge rusher first. At 40 it’s a stretch any of the top prospects are there. At 50-60 it’s even less likely. Give me Landry or Davenport at 8 (or Edmunds at 8 if they see him as an edge). I don’t care if they call it a reach on draft day - if they become 10+ sack players nobody will care. Hell, give me another edge rusher in the 2nd too. Why not?

[JAF-N72EX]

In this scenario? Pass rusher(Edmunds), all day long. I don't even care who the 2nd round pick is. Fangio needs a pass rush for his philosophy to work. 

Anyone else think that it's odd that the secondary has sucked every year except last year? Why was it that all of sudden Fuller, Prince AND Amos....all had career years??? 

Pass rush percentages (not counting coverages)

2015, 24.7%
2016, 26.7%
2017, 31.4% (This is more than just a coincidence)

The pass rush is a MUST and right now we don't have many of them. 

Just remember how Marinelli's defense was predicated on a 4-man rush.....we'll Fangio is not much different in that aspect and it has showed. 

[G08]

@JustAnotherFan great post! I'm going to "borrow" those stats ?

[WindyCity]

11 hours ago, G08 said:

You can't have it both ways, though. If he was elite on tape he'd be a top 3 pick. You're banking on his youth, athleticism and upside. That's why a private visit with him is imperative. There's no sense in drafting him if Fangio and his staff do not think they can develop him.

You can. There are elite players with elite upside that will more than likely fall into our laps.

[Nads786]

11 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

In this scenario? Pass rusher(Edmunds), all day long. I don't even care who the 2nd round pick is. Fangio needs a pass rush for his philosophy to work. 

Anyone else think that it's odd that the secondary has sucked every year except last year? Why was it that all of sudden Fuller, Prince AND Amos....all had career years??? 

Pass rush percentages (not counting coverages)

2015, 24.7%
2016, 26.7%
2017, 31.4% (This is more than just a coincidence)

The pass rush is a MUST and right now we don't have many of them. 

Just remember how Marinelli's defense was predicated on a 4-man rush.....we'll Fangio is not much different in that aspect and it has showed. 

What do the percentages mean? % of pressures per passing snap? Is a 5% increase going to generate significantly better coverage by CBs/S?

[JAF-N72EX]

On 3/23/2018 at 1:24 PM, Nads786 said:

What do the percentages mean? % of pressures per passing snap? Is a 5% increase going to generate significantly better coverage by CBs/S?

It's pressure % per pass play (sacks, hurries, forced throws); including plays cancelled out by DPI and QB scrambles that were not by design -- but only if these plays were a result of a pass rush and not due to coverage. Plays such as; coverage sacks and plays where a QB is given plenty of time but 'gives up' on a play because of tight coverage are subtracted. The point is to separate QB pressure applied from the front-7 and coverage which illustrates defensive impact as a unit.

And yes, a 5% increase can make a pretty significant difference. The Ravens, Saints, Rams, Chargers, Lions, Panthers and JAX all seen increases of 4.70%, 6.10%, 3.70%, 4.90%, 6.80%, 5.00% and 8.20%, respectively. The only other top defenses that did not see a significant increase were Philly(1.9%), Vikes(1.8%), an underrated Cardinals(0.2%) and the Bills(-0.8%) and that is mainly because they were already strong in this regard last year (save for Buffalo). 

It's no secret that QB's struggle more under pressure than they do without it and we're talking about 5% out of 574 plays over the course of 16 games(29 plays over league avg). That's an avg 36 plays which is more than an entire full game worth of snaps(A starting QB averages 34 plays per game --31 pass att + 3 rush att).

To add to that, it's not just about the increase/decrease in pass rush % from one year to the next that matters most. What does matter most is about how often a defense is getting to the QB. Ideally you wanna be getting pressure about 29 to 30% of the time (or about once per drive) and we have only accomplished that feat once during Fangio's tenure. And it just so happens to be during the same year where 3 of our primary secondary players last season all have career years when just 12 months ago all 3 of them were widely considered just "bench" players at that point.  

That's why the pass rush is so important, especially these days in the passing era, and why we should most defiantly invest in the front-7 to compliment Lloyd and Hicks. It can change everything. Look at the Jags defense for example. The secondary gets all the praise but people don't realize how good that front-7 was this year. Campbell, Ngakoue, Jackson, Fowler, smoot, Jack and Dareus alone combined a total of 144 QB pressures out of the teams 171.5 last year on 197 drives with a flawed offense. 

Meanwhile, here is Chicago, our top 7 were; Acho, Floyd, Hicks, Goldman, McPhee, Houston, Trevathan.

Of those 7; One is a situational player forced into a starting position. One is injury prone. One is already gone. One other was released, brought back, is old, and his future still up in the air. That leaves Floyd and Hicks.

     

 

[pigsooie5]

1(8)- Marcus Davenport....EDGE

2(39)- Mike Hughes...........CB

Would add two extremely dynamic playmakers to the D. Could really push them into the next level of D. 

Davenport has the highest ceiling of any pass rusher in this class and Hughes has legit boundary CB potential. My #3 behind Ward and Fitz.