Should we trade down from #4 right now?

[NudeTayne]

Hey all. Here's a pole. Dance on it.

As far as the reasoning behind this, I've been thinking to myself whether it might be a worthy venture to dish our pick now before the draft, as teams know that quarterbacks are going top three. As some of us have stated, we don't know if the third quarterback off the board will be Mayfield or Allen and don't really know which potential trade partner likes who. That may discourage some teams from wanting to risk it trading up ahead of time. That said, it might also force teams to trade up ahead of time if they believe that someone else will.

Conversely, we might be able to get the most on draft day when, say, Josh Allen is sitting at 4 and buffalo wants him really bad. Or... Mayfield is the fourth quarterback on the board on draft day and nobody wants to take the risk trading up. We could get caught holding the bag. It's an interesting situation. I'm curious what everyone thinks as far as what our best strategy would be.

***************Note: keep the "stay pat and take a blue chipper" talk for another thread. I have (not) discussed it with Webby and he (hasn't) assured me that anyone who crosses me will be banned. Tread lightly, friends.**************************** <--more asterisks than @BleedTheClock.

[MWil23]

I'd EITHER wait until NY trades their #2 pick (IF they do at all, which I don't think) or until draft day. Basic economics means that scarcity will drive up the demand/price, making it more valuable. 

10 minutes isn't a long time, but you'll also certainly have contingency plans/trades in place for these scenarios. Now is the time to get those in place, but you may have to wait until draft day.

IF NY trades their pick, you can then strut around saying that #4 becomes the spot where the #1 overall position player/non QB is available.

If they don't, you have to wait until they make their pick.

[dawgdish]

The only way I want to trade down from 4 is if we get a king's ransom for the move, or if we only slide back a slot or two - I think the odds of increasing the chances of this happening are best on draft day, like when a QB needy team sees for sure that they go 1,2,3 and are dying to get the last top tier one at 4, and are afraid other teams might be jockeying for the sport as well. Stay put until then, and see what happens. If worse comes to worse and nothing tantalizing materializes, we stay put and pick BPA.

[FGK]

Yeah, I'd say lay the foundation for a move now, and if someone blows you away go ahead and pull the trigger, but otherwise just lay the groundwork and wait.

[brownie man]

I say do it now so the scouting department has more time 

get exactly what you want let the league know what that is and if no one beats the offer take it and plan from then 

you never know one might tear an acl during a workout you never know 

if you get offered exactly what you want take it 

[NudeTayne]

I like the idea of arranging the groundwork right now as well. I don't want to be haggling on draft day and ending up picking at number four just because we didn't have it all set up ahead of time. I also like Brownie's comment as far as any injuries that could happen between now and the draft, since we are looking at four prospects. If any of them get injured seriously, it basically makes our pick worth nothing in a trade down.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

If you get an offer you like, sure.

If not, wait.

No need to get cute waiting for the offer of the century.

Plus, knowing where you’ll be picking allows further scouting of other players as well as potentially laying groundwork for other trade possibilities.

[TheeRealDeal]

If someone offers up 3 second rounders to move down a few slots then I would make the deal. If the best offer we have right now is for a middle of the road 2nd round pick then I would say no thanks. Wait until draft day when teams tend to panic. We have no reason to panic. We have have great options in front of us either way. Staying put and drafting a great prospect or getting great value on a trade back. The teams looking to move up don't have the same luxury and they will panic on draft day if they realize they will not be getting their guy. Even if they do the smart thing and not panic then we are in good shape right where we are. 

[NudeTayne]

Seems like a pretty split group thus far. So far I have gathered that people would rather just wait and see if we get a good offer, and as soon as that happens, trade the pick. I'm wondering, though, if there is a situation that is more advantageous to us without knowing the details of what teams are offering. I'm wondering if it benefits us to trade the pic now or trade the pic later, where do you guys think that the offer will be the same either way?

[GongKong]

Stay pat take a blue chipper.

.....

 

 

Think if you trade best to risk it on draft day. Chubb Barkley one of the qbs, someone will love them and pressure trade you some more.

If not stand pat take the blue chipper.

But I'm strongly stop trading down and just get as much elite talent as possible. But that's for another thread. Allegedly.

[mistakey]

im gonna say just stay at 4 and take a player

been thinkin about it- i dont want 11 or 12 more rookies
there's other ways to get a first round pick next year, i.e. like straight up trading 64 for a 1st next year

1 and 4 and 33 and 35 is a lot of talent
 

take that.  we'll be set.  

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

27 minutes ago, mistakey said:

im gonna say just stay at 4 and take a player

been thinkin about it- i dont want 11 or 12 more rookies
there's other ways to get a first round pick next year, i.e. like straight up trading 64 for a 1st next year

1 and 4 and 33 and 35 is a lot of talent
 

take that.  we'll be set.  

64 for a 2019 1st?

That’s optimistic iyam.

[Thomas5737]

3 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

64 for a 2019 1st?

That’s optimistic iyam.

Ha, I think he meant 33 or 35. However, if we could turn a pick we already traded into a future 1st I'm all in.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

9 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Ha, I think he meant 33 or 35. However, if we could turn a pick we already traded into a future 1st I'm all in.

We traded 65.

[mistakey]

43 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

64 for a 2019 1st?

That’s optimistic iyam.

It’s not too optimistic.