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(?) Players to Target in Trades Back into the 1st Round


Mind Character

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I may have been the first on here many many months ago to mention that I see us doing 2 David Njoku style draft day trades to move from the top of the 2nd round to the bottom of the 1st round.

It cost us a 4th Round pick to do so then. As we only have the 1, 4th round pick now after the Jarvis Landry trade, we'd have to give up some future draft compensation as well most likely.

With that said, trading into the 1st not only allows us to target more premium talent, but also provides the opportunity to gain the coveted 5th year option on a rookie contract thus extending the control window over a player.

For me, while some are likelier to be available at the end of the 1st (I give the scenario on why it's plausible) the following players are the most likely candidates for us in trades back in to the 1st round:

1. Da'Ron Payne, DT Alabama (High Likelihood): DTs with limited pass rushing production, but with athleticism based upside often fall towards the end of the 1st. Given what I expect to be a later round push on QBs like Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson, premium talent will be pushed down the board. There's question on whether Payne can truly be a a 3 down player instead of just a run stopper. In the end, I think John Dorsey believes in his athletic traits and hopes to slide him in as a force next to Ogunjobi. While Payne could go anywhere from 24th on...I think he becomes our target in a trade up to the 27th pick or so.

2, Taven Bryan, DT Florida (High Likelihood): Just like Payne, Bryan has question marks in terms of whether he can be a 3 down impact starter. Right now, he is a slippery and tremendous hand technician that explodes off the ball to disrupt the pass. Unfortunately, he is too undisciplined, wild off the ball, lacks playing strength, and aggression to be seriously impact the run game. He's the opposite of Payne for comparison's sake. However, with such natural up the field rush ability, our staff may feel like he can add weight and be coached to be a run stopper. The fit next to Ogunjobi isn't ideal, but Bryan's talent is too much to pass up. He'll go somewhere in the 25th to 30th range probably.

3. DJ Moore, WR Maryland (High Likelihood): While he's my clear WR1, this WR class is thought to have about 4 WRs with similar grades that are well below that of talents at other key positions. It's hard to say who teams have as their WR1, but the explosiveness, route running, and ability to attack the ball in the air make Moore a great target at the end of round 1. Most seem to think he could go as high as the early 20s, but given the how many teams filled their WR needs in free agency, the run on QBs, the similar grades on WRs, and the poor positive impact history of 1st Round WRs in recent years (Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, John Ross, etc) WRs will likely be available at the end of round 1.

4. Courtland Sutton, WR SMU (High Likelihood): There are question marks regarding the reliability, hands, and route running of Sutton. We may in fact believe in his ability enough to take him at the end of round 1. A lot of scouting rooms are divided on whether he can truly be a WR1. You don't take WR2s in the 1st round as you can get them later. Given the how many teams filled their WR needs in free agency, the run on QBs, the similar grades on WRs, and the poor positive impact history of 1st Round WRs in recent years (Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, John Ross, etc) WRs will likely be available at the end of round 1.

5. Mike Hughes, CB UCF (Uncertain- Could Go Either Way): He's my number 1 CB in the draft, and I'd be okay with us using a top 10 pick on him, but he has the stigma of being undersized (5'10'', 189 pounds, and not top end fast (he ran a 4.53, 40 yard dash at the combine). He may be typecast into a slot CB role, seen as not durable due to his size given the aggressive style of his play, or he may be seen as a CB2. With other talented CBs available and the QBs pushing talent down the board, he may be the shocker available toward the end of the 1st round. If he is, I'd celebrate if we could get him later in the 1st. Even with the size and speed limitations, his game tape might make a team fall in love with him in the 15th to 25th pick range; however, if he falls out of that range we have to go get him.

6. Roquan Smith, LB Georgia (Low Likelihood): When there are multiple LB1, 1st round prospects available in a given draft (Tremaine Edmunds LB Va Tech, Rashaan Evans, LB Alabama, Leighton Vander Esch LB Boise State, Lorenzo Carter LB Georgia), someone always gets the short end of the stick. While Roquan Smith is thought to be a great player, he is undersized and less "body beautiful" relative to the physical and athletic freak multiple LB1 prospects in the draft. Will another team choose the bigger, stronger, faster, longer, athletes when their impacts are similar? Even more, LB is not a premium position teams like to spend 1st round picks on given the ability to find competent and impact LBs much later in the draft. So, if in reality 3 teams are willing to go LB in Round 1, Edmunds, Vander Esch, and Evans may be higher on those teams boards. If so, although not a need position for us with Kirksey, Collins, and Schobert, Roquan is a premium player with rare abilities and next level leadership that would be an upgrade over an already solid Joe Schobert. Would we pass on such a player if they're available?

7. Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame (Low Likelihood): No one has a clue where the OTs are going to go in this draft. Some say some will go top 15, some say later in the 1st, while others say none will go in the 1st round. Literally, the only LT prospect I believe in is McGlinchey. The rest aren't worth the 2nd or 1st round pick we'd spend on them. If he falls to the end of the 1st, he's a target I'd see us trading up for. At worst, he and Hubbard fight it out for the RT spot...at best, he becomes our new LT of the future and we move Coleman back to RT with Hubbard serving as the first one off the bench swing player for injury and depth purposes.

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For the love of all good things, please no Orlando Brown foolery....even before the combine I told people how trash he was when watching his games this year and last. He has no feet, plays with terrible leverage, his contact balance is bad, his eyes on the blitz are bad, has no anchor, and was covered up amazingly by Oklahoma's quick passing game. He would've given up tons of sacks if he was in a different offense. His size and length is an impressive strength and trait that helped him do well in the Big12 against subpar pash rushers. In the NFL, he's going to be terribly exposed. We released Zach Banner the LT from USC who had similar issues to Brown, but was a better pass blocker and athlete. Brown is the Davis Webb of this draft to me...the pick I'd be the most disgusted by. If you like Orlando as a LT, please go watch more than 5 games of his and do so asking yourself if Baker holds the pass a second longer what happens...pay  close attention to what happens on long pass sets.

 

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14 minutes ago, pnies20 said:

I had raven Bryant at 33 in my last mock. He's very, very raw. He's only got a few years of football under his belt. 

Browns really like Moore as well. I hope we just stay and see who falls, though.

Why wait to see who falls? Because we don't want to give up a valuable 4th round pick?

With the CBA 5th year option for 1st round rookie contracts, there's no reason to try to wait for a pick.

if Myles Garrett was selected at the 1st pick of the 2ND round, that would mean we'd have him under contract for 3 years, and an option year in year 4. That means after year 4 we'd either have to franchise him or make him one of the highest paid players at his position (assuming he sustains top performance). That means the bill and cap space crunch comes a year earlier and you don't get to see how good or reliable the player is before committing big money that has long term cap consequences.

Our team is far beyond that time. If we identify a guy, we have to get him.

By going in the first round, we have Myles for 5 years before we have to franchise him or extend him long term.

Giving up a 4th round pick to get the player you target on a 5th year option rookie contract is well worth it no matter what salary cap wise, but also especially if the player ends up being an impact player.

 

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Great post @Mind Character. If we trade up twice at the end of the first round, I could see us trading 35 & 64 for a late first and late third. I'd be meh on the moving down a whole round, but it might be worth it. I like all those guys and could see them all being worth it. I'm still not certain we need to draft defensive love high but wouldn't be surprised if we did.

And so about Orlando Brown (couldn't resist on a totally unrelated thread to boot; the Webb-level hate is strong in this one ?.), you're saying Baker made that love and not the other way around?

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25 minutes ago, TheeRealDeal said:

DJ Moore is going 15(Arizona) or 16(Baltimore) IMO. He is not falling far enough for a trade up.

Jaire Alexander and Ronald Jones are two names I would add to that list.

Do you think we'll need to trade up for Ronald Jones? I like him a lot but could still see him lasting til the mid second being lost in a very deep running back tier. Alexander just scares me due to injury history. Do you think he's a first round lock? He's a player.

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6 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

Do you think we'll need to trade up for Ronald Jones? I like him a lot but could still see him lasting til the mid second being lost in a very deep running back tier. Alexander just scares me due to injury history. Do you think he's a first round lock? He's a player.

Only because of Philadelphia. He is a perfect fit for them and they need a RB. Him and Ajayi would be a nasty duo.

Alexanders is firmly in the Top 5 CB and all 5 could easily go 1st round do to positional value. Alexander is a risky prospect but honestly he is no more risky than Marshon Lattimore was in the Top 12 that guy was a walking soft tissue injury in college. Once Denzel Ward and Mike Hughes go off the board I would start heavily considering the move up for Alexander as I believe those 3 have separated from the next 3(Oliver, Jackson, Davis) and then a huge drop off after the Top 6.

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6 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

Do you think we'll need to trade up for Ronald Jones? I like him a lot but could still see him lasting til the mid second being lost in a very deep running back tier. Alexander just scares me due to injury history. Do you think he's a first round lock? He's a player.

RoJo’s predraft process has quietly gone about as bad as it could possibly go.

Pulled up in the 40, couldn’t prove his real speed.

Dropped practically every pass that hit him right in the hands yesterday and was apparently not able to go at full speed because of the injury.

I think he’s a lock to be there at 35.

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15 minutes ago, Aztec Hammer said:

RoJo’s predraft process has quietly gone about as bad as it could possibly go.

Pulled up in the 40, couldn’t prove his real speed.

Dropped practically every pass that hit him right in the hands yesterday and was apparently not able to go at full speed because of the injury.

I think he’s a lock to be there at 35.

Jesus let’s hope so.

The Jamaal Charles comp I’ve read is pretty good imo, kid’s a home run hitter.

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2 hours ago, Aztec Hammer said:

RoJo’s predraft process has quietly gone about as bad as it could possibly go.

Pulled up in the 40, couldn’t prove his real speed.

Dropped practically every pass that hit him right in the hands yesterday and was apparently not able to go at full speed because of the injury.

I think he’s a lock to be there at 35.

Could be be there closer to 64? I can see with his combine and nagging injury that he could fall past possibly all of Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Penny and maybe even someone else like Freeman. I like Rojo a lot too, but he's lucky and has an injury. I could see him falling a bit, though maybe that's just wishful thinking.

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