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Why is everyone assuming Deshaun Watson is gonna be back to 100% next season?


VanS

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5 hours ago, VanS said:

teams will now have an entire off-season of film on him.

Will really come in handy when they review whether or not he turns his blinker on while turning into the grocery store.

What does this even mean?  They didn't have film on him for his four games he played this season? 

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Thing is, no one denies that ACL recovery is still not 100 percent guaranteed - but of all the major injuries, it's still the one with the greatest recovery rates.   One caveat to recognize is that while the return-to-playing times are getting shorter, the return to full explosion is longer - trainers, doctors and players still note that a return to 100 percent (or whatever their peak) level of performance is about 18 months - or 6 months after return to play.    It's why players sometimes speak of this in Year 2 post-recovery (more a matter of timing in the NFL, it's not 2 years, but it's only year 2 until they hit the 18-month mark).

Because the recovery rates are so good with the standard approach, players will follow the schedule - why risk a potentially poorer recovery rate?   The rates are just so good with the standard schedule, it's pretty hard to justify.  For a situation like Wentz, where his injury occurred so late, there's context, but Watson really has more time on his side to not try and push the schedule.  Still, there's no doubt physically even when he returns, he may not be the full Deshaun Watson year 1.   

Before ppl have the "aha" conclusion, though - the difference may not be nearly as important here for Watson.  Of course, the more mobile a QB is, it's always a plus.  So a small loss might be huge for a guy who depends on his physical skills.  Thing is, what Watson relies on is incredible pocket awareness and anticipation - it's not that he's a physical freak.   That's why he wasn't expected to excel as he did - as those skills are difficult, if not impossible to measure, and only played out once he took to the field.

Thing is, I doubt anyone assumes anything as a 100% given - but ACL history is so good, until Watson shows no signs of trouble, people just proceed with the best case scenario.  And really, given what he's done, there's no other course to take.  And it's not like HOU hasn't been trying to upgrade OL, either - they get that the best way to keep your franchise qb effective is to keep him healthy.  HOU just got outbid on the big T's in FA.

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49 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

For a situation like Wentz, where his injury occurred so late, there's context, but Watson really has more time on his side to not try and push the schedule.

In addition, Wentz is dealing with a much more significant injury - ACL, LCL were both torn, IT Band was damaged as well as meniscus damage. That's two ligaments, one tendon and the "shock absorber" between the two leg bones. 

Not all ACL injuries are the same, in this respect. Wentz isn't in Teddy Bridgewater territory, but he's got a longer road to recovery.

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4 hours ago, VanS said:

Some players are more injury prone than others.  Thus far you would have to be concerned about Deshaun Watson's durability going forward given the fact he's already had 2 ACL tears at just 22 years old.

Also, in some ways tearing an ACL on each knee is worse than having torn it twice on the same knee.  At least if its the same knee, you know your other knee is good.  Now with both knees having tears, you don't get that confidence from knowing the other knee is good.

Yeah, you’re talking out of your rear end at this point. 

You're right - it’s possible Watson’s mentality might be shattered and he might be a shell of what he could’ve been. But there’s not much to suggest that will happen and much more reason to see optimism.

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3 hours ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Will really come in handy when they review whether or not he turns his blinker on while turning into the grocery store.

What does this even mean?  They didn't have film on him for his four games he played this season? 

Umm...no.

College tape doesnt count.   Completely different game.    Preseason doesnt count either.  So what tape was there?

There is a reason there are a numerous one year wonder QBs.   Teams gameplan to stop QBs more than any other position.    If there are flaws in a players game, they are easier to exploit with more gametape and experience playing said player.

Good QBs are able to overcome this by fixing the flaws or at least making it more difficult to exploit.   The QBs who cant overcome it are the ones who simply fail to adapt to different gameplans teams use to exploit those shortcomings.

And by no means am I saying that will happen to Watson.   I have no idea what to think of him going forward to be honest.      If I were a Texans fan, I would excited, but cautiously excited.    He could still go either way.    Only way I think he would be a full-on bust though is if injuries derailed his career.

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1 minute ago, FourThreeMafia said:

Umm...no.

College tape doesnt count.   Completely different game.    Preseason doesnt count either.  So what tape was there?

I don't enjoy arguing with you, so I'm just going to say...

Teams have one more game than they had before the game Watson got injured.

The Jaguars had no tape on him.
The Bengals had a half a game of tape on him.
The Patriots had 1.5 games of tape on him.
The Titans had 2.5 games of tape on him.
The Chiefs had 3.5 games of tape on him.
The Browns had 4.5 games of tape on him.
The Seahawks had 5.5 games of tape on him.

Teams now have 6.5 games of tape on him, which is exactly the same amount of games worth of tape the next team would have had on him.  There is no "entire offseason worth of tape."  The Seahawks had 5.5 games of tape on him and he made them look like a bad defense.  Richard Sherman even said so. 

That's literally the entire point I tried to make.  You can keep arguing with me if you want, but there are zero facts against my argument.  If you want to argue for the sake of arguing, go ahead, but the only point I was making is that teams don't suddenly have more tape on him than they did with each week that he continued to dominate against teams. 

So what exactly are you arguing? 

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10 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

Watson isn’t RGIII. RGIII’s issues stemmed less from his ACL year and more from the coaching going on in Washington. 

That isn't true at all.  RG3's issues stemmed from the fact that he didn't know how to play QB.  He couldn't read defenses or move through progressions.  He was a pass to the first option or take off running QB.  

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21 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Without assuming anything, has anyone come back and been successful from having two ACL tears? I really don't know.

Carson Palmer off the top of my head. Keenan Allen at WR. Frank Gore tore two at The U. 

I'm sure I'm missing a lot.

EDIT: Casey Hampton, Thomas Davis, Owen Daniels also come to mind.

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