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'18 Top Pass Rush Teams & Bradley Chubb Giving Us an Identity


Mind Character

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26 minutes ago, TheeRealDeal said:

I don't know about riding any kind of Chubb let alone a Chubb train, but if that is your thing I won't judge.

I will judge.

21 minutes ago, bruceb said:

Just say "No!" to Chubb.

Hey! Don't knock it til...wait, what were we talking about?

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1 minute ago, mtmmike said:

To me the best reason to not draft chubb is because next year draft has alot of high caliber lineman.

Thar said if you want to draft chubb i am fine with it

We’ll need a LT next year. Chubb is better than you guys are realizing. 

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2 hours ago, Mind Character said:

Let's really examine things and see if your argument holds up.

As it is mostly based on a fallacy of reasoning and understanding of the players coming out of the draft, I don't think your argument holds up under scrutiny.

Here's Why:

1. There's a difference between talent/college on-field production and where a player gets drafted as variables like scheme fit (34 vs 43 defense), character concerns, depth of the talent pool at a particular position versus others, etc...

2. Top pass rushing efficient teams have players that based on ability alone at one point were thought to be the top or top 3 prospect at their position. There are of course a few exceptions, but in the case of the top pass rush teams over the last 5 year sample size...that exception doesn't really hold true.

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All 3 teams (Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Jacksonville) have multiple players with college production/talent at the top of the pass rush....but let's look into the specifics.

Pittsburgh Steelers

TJ Watt: Final Season College Production: 63 tckls; 15.5 TFLs; 11.5 Sacks. He was the consensus number 1, 34OLB pass rusher on the every teams draft board.Fell to the end of the first due to SCHEME FIT reasons as few teams play the 34-defense. Pass rushers like Myles Garrett, Takk Mckinley, Taco Charlton, Derek Barnett, Charles Harris, and Solomon Thomas all went ahead of him because they were 43 players. He was clearly a top pass rushing talent, one of the better performers at the combine, and had the production and hand fighting technique on the field to match. He's selected much higher if it wasn't for the 34OLB not being the top need by teams above him. Therefore, it was easy to say he was a top 35 talent, and a top 2 player at his position as he was the consensus number 1, 34 OLB

Cameron Heyward: Final Season College Production: 48 tckls; 13 TFLs; 3.5 Sacks. Again, he only fell because he was a scheme fit issue being a 34 DE who played out of position according to most at OSU although he was still considered one of the top talents in the draft and the clear number 1, 34 DE.

Bud Dupree: Final Season College Production: 74 tckls; 15 TFLs; 9.5 Sacks: Selected 22nd overall, Dupree had excellent college production, and unbelievable athletic testing numbers and was the 3rd pass rushing talent selected only behind Vic Beasley and Dante Fowler (he's on the list). So, again he was a consensus top 35 player and in the top 3 of his position in the draft.

We'll leave Vince Williams out of the discussion as he's not an outside Pass Rusher, but a converted ILB that took over for Shazier...he did however have college production.

Pittsburgh Summary: All 3 of their top outside pass rushers were literally either the top pass rusher at their position (Heyward, Watt) or a top 3 pass rusher at their position with crazy production (Bud Dupree) coming out of the draft.

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Carolina Panthers

Julius Peppers: Consensus top player at his DE position. Consensus top 2 player in the entire draft. Age doesn't matter.

Mario Addison: Final Season College Production at Troy: 47 tckls; 15.5 TFLs; 10.5 Sacks. Addison was a JUCO transfer who fully started 1 year. In that 1 year at Troy he put up numbers only matched/rivaled by the likes of Demarcus Ware. He fell in the draft because of serious fears off the field that lead him to the JUCO route and for fear of him being a 1-year wonder. He also didn't interview well. Talent and especially college production wise he was thought to be a top 3-4 pass rusher at his position. Without the off the field stuff, in the 2011 draft he would've probably been a 2nd round pick as projected by scouts at the time.

Wes Horton: Final Season College Production at Troy: 43 tckls; 6.5 TFLs; 5.5 Sacks. Self-made player that had good sack and pass rush production during his time at USC. Going undrafted he was a miss by evaluatiors that thought he had limited athleticism.

Kawaun Short: Final Season College Production at Purdue:  43 tckls; 17 TFLs; 7 Sacks. Carolina uses short on the outside and brings Peppers up the middle to devastating effects. Short was a consensus top 3 DLineman at his position with pass rushing versatility in the 2013 draft that only fell to the top of the 2nd round of the draft due to bad combine interviews and questions about character. Again, he was a top 3 player at his position coming out of the draft.

Carolina Summary: They have 2 top pass rushing talents (1-Peppers a consensus top player; the other-Addison possesses top talent but had character concerns make him go undrafted) and they have a steady pass rusher that matched his pro production to his college production. Carolina's pass rush efficiency is generated through additional depth up the middleHe's the exception to the rule much like a Cameron Wake type. You don'

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Dante Fowler: Final Season College Production at Purdue: 60 tckls; 15 TFLs; 8.5 Sacks. Went Number 3 overall behind Jameis Winston at 1 and Marcus Mariota at 2. Was the consensus top DE in the draft whom unfortunately suffered a rookie minicamp torn ACL and had to battle back to get back to his pre-injury form. Now, he's healthy and a devastating pass rusher.

Yannick Ngakou: Final Season College Production at Purdue: 37 tckls; 14.5 TFLs; 13 Sacks. Was one of the country's leading sack leaders in a year (2016) thought at pre-draft time to be one of the deepest draft for pass rushing talent (i.e, Joey Bosa, Shaq Lawson, Deforest Buckner, Emmanuel Ogbah, Noah Spence, Kevin Dodd, Jihad Ward, Carl Nassib). He fell to the top of the 3rd round because out of all the DEs selected only he was thought to be a tweener as he was too small to play 43DE and not athletically fluid enough and too stiff to play 34OLB. Therefore, he slipped in the draft mostly due to perceived scheme fit...even still he was considered one of the top pass rushers in the draft and would easily be the third best pass rusher in this draft after Chubb and Davenport.

Calais Campbell: Final Season College Production at Purdue: 50 tckls; 12.5 TFLs; 6.5 Sacks after a 55 tckls; 20.5 TFLs; 10.5 Sacks crazy good season. He was a consensus top 3 DE outside pass rusher that year, but was thought to be too tight hipped and had knee immobility so he instead went at the top of the 2nd round.

JAX Summary: Every single on of their pass rushers was a top talent in terms of talent and production.

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But let's ask ourselves: Who are the top talents at DE outside rusher this year and are they thought to be top talents and/or did they match the production and on field prowess of the previously discussed guys.

1. Bradley Chubb: Production-Yes. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---Yes...Top Pass rushing talent.

2. Marcus Davenport: Production-Yes. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---Yes...thought to be a top 20 prospect, but may be best in the 34.

3. Harold Landry: Production-Question Marks after down year. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---Question Marks after showing limitations despite being injured. Has strength and explosiveness limitations on tape. Considered to be a top 50 talent but not a consensus top 25.

4. Duke Ejiofor: Production-Yes. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No. Not Cosidered a top 50 talent in the scouting community as he has an inconsistent motor. Thought to be a 4th or 5th round prospect

5. Arden Key: Production-In one year, but No overall. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No...thought to be a 34 player and has other off field con

6. Sam Hubbard: Production-Meh...Not top production. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No, thought to be limited. 4.98 and 5.00 40yard dash and 1.78, 10 yard have people dropping him down the boards.

7. Dorace Armstrong Jr.: Production-No. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No

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What is true of a past draft isn't necessarilytrue of this one.

You can randomly sample drafts of various years to make the case that you can find impact QBs in later rounds therefore don't take a QB early....you can randomly sample draft results of various years to make the case that you can find impact DEs, CBs, and so on and so on positional groups as to suggest that it's okay to pass on a certain position early.

 

It's a fallacy to suggest that because there were pass rushers available in past drafts in later rounds, that means that they are available in this draft.

The talent simply isn't there. Even in the late round gems it's thought to not be there.

If one thing is true. In order to have a top pass rush defense...most defenses at the top of DVOA pass rush efficiency have multiple players (3 or more) that were considered not only top 3 at their position coming out in the draft, but were consensus top impact starter types based on college production and on-field dominance/play traits.

you were too busy trying to write your "I'm going to write a three page paper to prove I'm smarter than you" response and overlooked quite a few errors, I went ahead and bolded+underlined those for you. 

 

One of the comedic points in your post is you actually mentioned Carl Nassib as being up there with some of the top talented pass rushers in the deep 2016 class along with Ogbah, two players we currently have on our roster, but are trying to argue that we must spend the #4 pick on Chubb if he is there. 

So the current Cleveland Browns have:

Myles Garrett: 47 career TFL, 31 Sacks in college

Emmanuel Ogbah:35.5 career TFL, 26.5 Sacks in college

Nate Orchard:21 TFL and 18.5 Sacks his senior year in college

Carl Nassib:19.5 TFL and 15.5 Sacks his senior year in college

Jamie Collins: 20 TFL and 10 Sacks his senior year in college

 

5 guys currently on the team who fit the profile you list in your post, but you spend an entire post trying to prove we still need to spend another top pick on a pass rusher.

How good was that Jaguars pass rush in 2016, before Campbell arrived as a free agent and Bouye gave them one of the strongest CB duos in the league that allowed them to scheme more aggressively? 

33 sacks. 

How many games have Collins, Ogbah, Garrett, etc. gotten to play together, as a unit? We have a group of guys that have proven before they can get in the backfield and to the QB, but they haven't gotten to play as a group much. They also haven't gotten the pleasure to be on a team that knows how to keep the ball offensively and keep the defense fresh. You mention Carolina, Jacksonville (bottom 7 in 2016), Pittsburgh, all 3 of those teams finished top 5 in Time of Possession in 2017. 

We upgrade the secondary to allow our front 7 the ability to be more aggressive and not get burned while doing so, it improves us drastically. We actually have our pass rushing core playing as a group which is something that we haven't gotten to see yet, it improves us drastically. We establish an offense and an actual run game to allow us to control the TIP, it improves us drastically. 

 

There's some facts for you. Can't wait for your response telling me how I'm wrong and not as smart as you. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, matt27j said:

Nobody is completely right or wrong. We do need someone to be a consistent rusher. We also need to improve in those other areas...its just what is the best step to take right now? 

Darnold and Edmunds after trade down from #4

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Yeah i mean im cool with whatever. R smith, davenport, even bryan. Just one more guy in that front 7 and Williams will have what he needs. If we got a #1 cb but are still slow on the blitz qb will still find an open man or throw it away.

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14 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

5 guys currently on the team who fit the profile you list in your post, but you spend an entire post trying to prove we still need to spend another top pick on a pass rusher.

Nope...try again...I thoroughly and strongly made the point that it is NOT JUST about production as 8 sacks is not 8 sacks, but also about how traditional scouting analysis evaluates the impact ability of said football prospect matters w/ this year's crop of pass rushers not receiving Top 50 grades outside of Davenport, Landry, and Chubb.

All the outside pass rush players on the Steelers, Panthers, and Jags were either Top 50 players based on traditional scouting of their talent alone (excluding off the field stuff), Top 3 at their Position, and/or Had Big time college production.

Carl Nassib and Nate Orchard would be types that check the College production box off but the vast majority of scouts didn't see them as top 50 players based on their ability and how it'd project to the NFL.

I then evaluated the top 3 pass rushing teams' players based on 1) Their Production & 2.) How their abilities were seen in the context of traditional scouting analysis projecting their impact.

I then looked at this year's draft crop with the same lens.

Therefore, your rebuttal is erroneous and my point stands and is not only more substantive, but still remains unchallenged in your response.

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19 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

"I'm going to write a three page paper to prove I'm smarter than you"

If you don't want someone to make your takes look bad...use real evidence before you type.

It's really not that hard for me to put together strong arguments when you're throwing around the nonsense.

It takes me no more than 5 minutes to put together a response while you're all "You don't have to take a QB at 1 because past QBs have gone in later rounds and been great...same goes for pass rushers..."  you literally have nothing to say in your arguments.

 

22 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

How good was that Jaguars pass rush in 2016, before Campbell arrived as a free agent and Bouye gave them one of the strongest CB duos in the league that allowed them to scheme more aggressively? 

Another one of your.shining moments. So, how good was the JAGs pass rush when they just had a rookie Yannick and a recovering still from knee injury Dante Fowler???

You do realize that you're making the point for me...right? It was when they added the 3rd pass rusher in Campbell, to a seasoned Yannick, and healthy Fowler where they evolved. My points on their talents coming out of college relative to this year's crop still hold true. Adding Bouye helped, but Campbell had a far greater impact on the pass rush than AJ Bouye.

25 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

How many games have Collins, Ogbah, Garrett, etc. gotten to play together, as a unit?

So, you're saying that since all 3 have been injured...we should cross our fingers and hope their healthy going forward....so then, with the improved Secondary...they'll show us that our pass rush is A-okay?

You can't project that...you have to contingency plan to account for injury. We don't know if they are going to be healthy...that's why you bring in Bradley Chubb.

When Ogbah was healthy...we've seen limitations that warrant the selection of Chubb alone for his passing prowess..

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1 hour ago, Mind Character said:

Nope...try again...I thoroughly and strongly made the point that it is NOT JUST about production as 8 sacks is not 8 sacks, but also about how traditional scouting analysis evaluates the impact ability of said football prospect matters w/ this year's crop of pass rushers not receiving Top 50 grades outside of Davenport, Landry, and Chubb.

All the outside pass rush players on the Steelers, Panthers, and Jags were either Top 50 players based on traditional scouting of their talent alone (excluding off the field stuff), Top 3 at their Position, and/or Had Big time college production.

Carl Nassib and Nate Orchard would be types that check the College production box off but the vast majority of scouts didn't see them as top 50 players based on their ability and how it'd project to the NFL.

I then evaluated the top 3 pass rushing teams' players based on 1) Their Production & 2.) How their abilities were seen in the context of traditional scouting analysis projecting their impact.

I then looked at this year's draft crop with the same lens.

Therefore, your rebuttal is erroneous and my point stands and is not only more substantive, but still remains unchallenged in your response.

 

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If you don't want someone to make your takes look bad...use real evidence before you type.

It's really not that hard for me to put together strong arguments when you're throwing around the nonsense.

It takes me no more than 5 minutes to put together a response while you're all "You don't have to take a QB at 1 because past QBs have gone in later rounds and been great...same goes for pass rushers..."  you literally have nothing to say in your arguments.

 

Another one of your.shining moments. So, how good was the JAGs pass rush when they just had a rookie Yannick and a recovering still from knee injury Dante Fowler???

You do realize that you're making the point for me...right? It was when they added the 3rd pass rusher in Campbell, to a seasoned Yannick, and healthy Fowler where they evolved. My points on their talents coming out of college relative to this year's crop still hold true. Adding Bouye helped, but Campbell had a far greater impact on the pass rush than AJ Bouye.

So, you're saying that since all 3 have been injured...we should cross our fingers and hope their healthy going forward....so then, with the improved Secondary...they'll show us that our pass rush is A-okay?

You can't project that...you have to contingency plan to account for injury. We don't know if they are going to be healthy...that's why you bring in Bradley Chubb.

When Ogbah was healthy...we've seen limitations that warrant the selection of Chubb alone for his passing prowess..

Most people who use fancy words do it to try and make themselves look better than others. Fits you perfectly. Christ, I thought CalhounLambeau was the only pompous you know what in here. You're right up there with him in the "smarter than everyone" group. 

 

So Mind Character facts

Time of Possession doesn't matter

Draft history and/or college production only matters when the argument fits Mind Characters Point

Jacksonville's 2016 sack total's being 20+ less than 2017 was more to do with Fowler being healthy (played 16 games in 2016 also) and considers Campbell, the All-Pro who led the team in sacks as the "third pass rusher", than it was their pass defense becoming near elite, their running game allowing their defense to spend less time on the field, and bringing in Campbell who helped the other two pass rushers find more opportunities. Let's go with Fowler because he fits your argument of drafting a pass rusher high.

 

As for the injuries, they have zero concern to me. Ogbah has no history of injuries prior to this year. Collins missed 6 games total in 4 years before the ACL. And I'm not concerned with Garret who played 34 games in 3 seasons of college football. I'm not going to take a guy that high in the draft because my teams pass rushers happened to have fluke injuries that occurred in the same season, who none of them have history of anything I'd be overly concerned for. 

 

When we take QBOTF #1, the #4 pick does more for this football team being traded than it does by selecting a player. Am I going to be mad if we take someone #4? Nope, only if we had a solid trade down offer and turned it down. 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Mind Character said:

 

6. Sam Hubbard: Production-Meh...Not top production. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No, thought to be limited. 4.98 and 5.00 40yard dash and 1.78, 10 yard have people dropping him down the boards.

1

I could care less about his 40time or 10yard split. Do you understand how good his three cone drill time was? The three cone drill IMO and others opinions is a more important number for Defensive linemen. He ran his sub 6.85. I want to say since the 2015 draft class, his three cone drill is the 6th best one recorded. You look even deeper, you see that Hubbard ran his time at 6'5 270lbs, which is freaking impressive when you look at the guys who ran it slightly better than him, one of them weighted 256 and the rest of them were under 250. Hubbard might not have the sexy straight like speed, but might be one of the agilest, quick, and fluid 270lb defensive linemen. Poor 40 knocked him out of the 1st but he is easily a 2nd rd pick IMO

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14 minutes ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

Most people who use fancy words do it to try and make themselves look better than others. Fits you perfectly. Christ, I thought CalhounLambeau was the only pompous you know what in here. You're right up there with him in the "smarter than everyone" group. 

 

So Mind Character facts

Time of Possession doesn't matter

Draft history and/or college production only matters when the argument fits Mind Characters Point

Jacksonville's 2016 sack total's being 20+ less than 2017 was more to do with Fowler being healthy (played 16 games in 2016 also) and considers Campbell, the All-Pro who led the team in sacks as the "third pass rusher", than it was their pass defense becoming near elite, their running game allowing their defense to spend less time on the field, and bringing in Campbell who helped the other two pass rushers find more opportunities. Let's go with Fowler because he fits your argument of drafting a pass rusher high.

 

As for the injuries, they have zero concern to me. Ogbah has no history of injuries prior to this year. Collins missed 6 games total in 4 years before the ACL. And I'm not concerned with Garret who played 34 games in 3 seasons of college football. I'm not going to take a guy that high in the draft because my teams pass rushers happened to have fluke injuries that occurred in the same season, who none of them have history of anything I'd be overly concerned for. 

 

When we take QBOTF #1, the #4 pick does more for this football team being traded than it does by selecting a player. Am I going to be mad if we take someone #4? Nope, only if we had a solid trade down offer and turned it down. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If the words "erroneous" and "substantive" are fancy words for you....I don't know what to tell you. They seem pretty basic to me.

It's not about the word usage...again...it's just my analysis uses evidence...while yours doesn't.....So, you can talk about words all you want...I used statistics of DVOA pass rushing efficiency, also talked about the players that earned that ranking, the production they had in college, how the scouting community saw their ability projecting to the next level given that production, compared them to this year's crop of pass rushing talent, and ended with an evidenced based reasoning on why this year's pass rushing talent fail to meet to critical criteria: 1.) Being Top 35-50 players based on traditional scouting analysis consensus, and 2.) Having the college production to go along w/ their projected impact starter ability as thought by scouting consensus. As a result, outside of Marcus Davenport, Bradley Chubb, and maybe just maybe Harold Landry....no pass rushers as 43 DEs fit that bill. Davenport and Chubb are consensus top 20 players....with Landry being a consensus top 60 player.

My points were clearly made.

There's not much else to say man.....

CB play matters a lot when it comes to pass rushing.

There were a lot of things that influenced the improvement of the pass rush.

Some of which were...The major changes to the defense with Doug Marone's regime was: 1.) The Signing of Calais Campbell, 2.) Dante Fowler saying "this year I feel like my knee has finally recovered from the ACL injury as last year I wasn't all the way right," 3.) Moving Malik Jackson inside to DT b/c Calais Campbell can play outside, 4.) Yannick Ngakoue improving upon his rookie year abilities, strengths, as well as playing with other great players, 5.) Jalen Ramsey becoming even better and being paired with AJ Bouye, 6.) Myles Jack saying "my knee feels healthier than it ever has"

....but at the top of the list was definitely the Calais Campbell signing and Dante Fowler being healthy...

At this point...I just disagree with whatever it is you're saying....whatever it is exactly....

 

 

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8 minutes ago, buno67 said:

I could care less about his 40time or 10yard split. Do you understand how good his three cone drill time was? The three cone drill IMO and others opinions is a more important number for Defensive linemen. He ran his sub 6.85. I want to say since the 2015 draft class, his three cone drill is the 6th best one recorded. You look even deeper, you see that Hubbard ran his time at 6'5 270lbs, which is freaking impressive when you look at the guys who ran it slightly better than him, one of them weighted 256 and the rest of them were under 250. Hubbard might not have the sexy straight like speed, but might be one of the agilest, quick, and fluid 270lb defensive linemen. Poor 40 knocked him out of the 1st but he is easily a 2nd rd pick IMO

He's agile...but I wouldn't say quick per se.....Agility without quickness/burst is a limited asset.

I've said in earlier posts that I like Sam Hubbard's hand usage and how smooth he plays.

But it's a fact that he lacks the juice, explosiveness, and burst to really be a DE1 major sack artists/ QB pressure artist at the next level.

40 time doesn't bother me as much as the 10 yard split. That 1st 10 yards is the get off and burst/speed generated out of the 3point stance.

I could care less about his long speed...but with that slow of burst off the line...he's not really pressuring or speeding up the Offensive Lineman's pass set.

He wins with technique and is slippery. He's going to be a solid player at the next level.

Ultimately, Hubbard is a value 3rd or 4th round pick who will be a good rotational guy that will flash every now and then.

He has a great motor and plays with great effort, but I just don't see a starter on film...even before the athletic testing stuff.

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I'd love to trade down and take Edmunds or Bryan. I think both would have a near equal impact as chubb. Could say the same for derwin and barkley at 4 tho as well.

But if the plan is to have quickness inside you might want that third de. 

It seems like every choice is a good choice.

Just toss some names into a hat and trades and pick one out cuz dorsey and co are probably having these same meaningless debates waiting for the draft

 

 

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8 hours ago, Mind Character said:

He's agile...but I wouldn't say quick per se.....Agility without quickness/burst is a limited asset.

I've said in earlier posts that I like Sam Hubbard's hand usage and how smooth he plays.

But it's a fact that he lacks the juice, explosiveness, and burst to really be a DE1 major sack artists/ QB pressure artist at the next level.

40 time doesn't bother me as much as the 10 yard split. That 1st 10 yards is the get off and burst/speed generated out of the 3point stance.

I could care less about his long speed...but with that slow of burst off the line...he's not really pressuring or speeding up the Offensive Lineman's pass set.

He wins with technique and is slippery. He's going to be a solid player at the next level.

Ultimately, Hubbard is a value 3rd or 4th round pick who will be a good rotational guy that will flash every now and then.

He has a great motor and plays with great effort, but I just don't see a starter on film...even before the athletic testing stuff.

I understand the 10yard split, but when you look at the three cone drill, you have to be just as explosive just like the 40yard dash. Actually gotta be more explosive because of the change of directions you have to make. Not gonna kill him for a 10 yard split like that. I still seem him as being a 2nd rd pick. Back end of the 2nd. a surprising 40 would of made him a late 1st rd pick IMO 

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