'18 Top Pass Rush Teams & Bradley Chubb Giving Us an Identity

[TheeRealDeal]

53 minutes ago, pnies20 said:

Hmmm I wonder why we’re scouting okoronkwo so heavily?

He’d play 4-3 LB in pass rush situations 

Yannick Ngakoue

[Mind Character]

54 minutes ago, pnies20 said:

Hmmm I wonder why we’re scouting okoronkwo so heavily?

Who's says we're scouting him heavily?

[pnies20]

12 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

Who's says we're scouting him heavily?

It's insider stuff from someone that was at the combine so I can't give specifics but they met with him multiple times and had scouted him to play 4-3 LB on passing downs.

[MSURacerDT55]

3 hours ago, Mind Character said:

Seriously??

Because....

1.) Most of that list either is better suited for the 34 defense (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo is a true 34 OLB with zero 43 DE pro future, Arden Key is better standing up on film, Marcus Davenport entire film has him standing up and he may struggle from a 3 point stance),

2.) Their film is pedestrian (Duke Ejiofor, Tyquan Lewis) and isn't close to that of an impact player like Chubb's

3.) Or their film literally resembles toilet water (Arden Key more so, Josh Sweat)

Best Film out of the Bunch & Only One that May Equal Up to Chubb in Terms of Impact

Marcus Davenport: However, as stated before, he plays in a 2 point stand up stance, lacks technique and hand usage, and isn't the natural run stopper and pass rusher that Chubb is right now. I do believe in Davenport's upside, but he's not on Chubb's level right now imo.

Hell to the Nah Nah

Arden Key simply has some of the worst tape out there. His energy and feet die if the first move doesn't work.  He sleeps on olineman until the whistles over when things get too aggressive, he has bad eyes, he doesn't have the shock or punch power in his hands to set an edge in the run or to convert speed to power on a pass rush. He's lacks the technique and leverage skills to win from a 3pt stance...He's probably best suited in the 34. His inconsistent motor, energy, and off field issues are so suspect that taking him because of his prototypical (height,weight, size) traits is like Burning Money you found on the ground somewhere.

He's like Robert Nkemdiche but worse...taking them late 1st or early 2nd is a wasted pick as they'll burn out of the league in 3 years or so with no impact.

I've made my points on Josh Sweat's tape before...here:

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So, I'm not sure how you can basically say "We can draft another DE and still have the identity Chubb will give us"........ when those other DEs film (Outside of Marcus Davenport) shows IMO that they lack the ability to be true impact players whose skills are far deficient when it comes to Bradley Chubb's abilities. I could maybe see the argument for Davenport, but the rest of those guys are JAGS. I do like Hubbard (he did have a terrible 10-yard split of 1.78; and a 40 yard dash of 4.98 hand timed) and Tyquan Lewis on film, but their no more than solid rotational players.

You can't create that identity with lesser talents. To have a pass rushing identity, one needs 3 pass rushers that can impact the game as DE1 threats. We have 1 in Garrett...and the jury is out on Ogbah...bringing Chubb in would give us another DE1 threat imo to a lesser extent compared to Myles Garrett...Ogbah would be the 3rd.

Well...I disagree...thats fine.

[brownie man]

Depends on how good you think Chubb is 

if your looking for a 15+ sack a year guy that’s not him

but if your good with a consistent 10-13 all around run stopping end as well who can kick inside and play left or right who brings great character Chubb is what your looking for 

3 stud DEs are a good move for me 

especially when you look at the names we’ve been interested in 

Michael Bennett

Adrian Clayborn

Robert Quinn 

we want an outside guy who could play inside I think 

Chubb is that 

but I really like Denzel Ward too but this corner class is a hell of a lot deeper than the DE class

[H2ThaIzzo]

 

That vaunted Pittsburgh defense you rave about had late 1st round TJ Watt, late 1st Cam Heyward, late 1st Dupree, 6th rounder Vince Williams, etc.

Jacksonville had Calias Campbell, a free agent signing who was drafted mid round 2 a decade ago, Fowler who has been about their 4th best pass rusher that was drafted early, Yannick who went round 3. 

Carolina have undrafted 30 year old Mario Addison, undrafted Wes Horton, 38 year old freak of nature Peppers who was their #2 overall pick 16 years ago. 

 

In this decade there is one player on these three teams that was a top 10 draft pick pass rusher, yet the only way we have a future in the pass rush game is to spend the #4 pick on Bradley Chubb? 

 

Sure, Chubb would be a help and immediate upgrade for our pass rush. There are other guys who would do that as well. But I see teams year after year who get players that aren't at the top of the draft that end up better than the guys that do go early. Eversen Griffen, Osi Umeniyora, Cameron Wake, etc. There are other ways to make this team strong. And more ways to build the pass rush of the football team. Certainly Garrett and Ogbah being healthy is the first piece to the puzzle. 

 

[bruceb]

13 hours ago, Fatgerman said:

This draft is strong at RB, DB, and QB. Solid groups are interior OL,  interior DL, TE, and LB.

Well QB is a given at #1 and RB probably late in R1 or early in R2.

CB has been renovated, but I still could see taking one to turn the DB into a strong group, also late in R1 or early in R2. Heard we are interested in Oliver.

Think we are set at TE.

So we probably are looking at: QB, RB, CB, DL and LB with the money picks.

[bruceb]

8 hours ago, GongKong said:

He meant draft to the strength of your team. If you have good WRS draft WRs. Your team is built around that strength.  Like steelers with LB. 

If you draft to the strength of your team, you will be better able to scout what fits/works.

I get what you are saying,  but you completely missed the point.

I got the point.

I am a proponent of the approach.

I just happen to disagree with the strategy in this draft.

Taking a less than stellar talent with a very valuable high pick would a bad value way of executing a good strategy. 

Apply the strategy to different position groups (e.g., LB), or to a DL player with different and not appreciably lesser talent after a trade down that nets us at least a 2019 R1 pick.

Don't use a solid strategy to justify/prop what otherwise is a wasteful pick. 

[matt27j]

 

This IS a luxury pick. It's basically a gift for not landing Wentz/Bosa/Ramsey/Zeke/Tunsil. Thankfully it resulted in Myles, QB, this pick and a host of other players.

Not like a team could afford 3 #1/2 legit overall picks anyways.

Greg loves to blitz. Our problem was that whether it be Kindred or the LB's they were just too slow gettin there. Blitzing Peppers more will certainly help. Derwin, Edmunds, or Ro Smith would certainly help. Our LBs had 11.5 sacks which is pretty dang good for a 43. Imagine if there was some legit speed in that group. Or just an edge rusher with speed. 

There's always those downs where you only rush 4 where Chubb would be more beneficial. Seems like we blitz a lot though. 

Really no wrong way to go. Any one of these guys mentioned plus Bryan/Mcintosh, improved secondary play and Tyrod running the show we'll get 40 sacks in this blitz heavy scheme. Might still have a low ranked QB rating against tho.

And if the pick is Barkley or a CB those guys will have an indirect impact on sack totals as well. 

Pretty confident in the guys we have, just need somebody, any position, who is either gonna score points or help take the ball away. 

[Mind Character]

3 hours ago, H2ThaIzzo said:

 

That vaunted Pittsburgh defense you rave about had late 1st round TJ Watt, late 1st Cam Heyward, late 1st Dupree, 6th rounder Vince Williams, etc.

Jacksonville had Calias Campbell, a free agent signing who was drafted mid round 2 a decade ago, Fowler who has been about their 4th best pass rusher that was drafted early, Yannick who went round 3. 

Carolina have undrafted 30 year old Mario Addison, undrafted Wes Horton, 38 year old freak of nature Peppers who was their #2 overall pick 16 years ago. 

 

In this decade there is one player on these three teams that was a top 10 draft pick pass rusher, yet the only way we have a future in the pass rush game is to spend the #4 pick on Bradley Chubb? 

 

Sure, Chubb would be a help and immediate upgrade for our pass rush. There are other guys who would do that as well. But I see teams year after year who get players that aren't at the top of the draft that end up better than the guys that do go early. Eversen Griffen, Osi Umeniyora, Cameron Wake, etc. There are other ways to make this team strong. And more ways to build the pass rush of the football team. Certainly Garrett and Ogbah being healthy is the first piece to the puzzle. 

 

Let's really examine things and see if your argument holds up.

As it is mostly based on a fallacy of reasoning and understanding of the players coming out of the draft, I don't think your argument holds up under scrutiny.

Here's Why:

1. There's a difference between talent/college on-field production and where a player gets drafted as variables like scheme fit (34 vs 43 defense), character concerns, depth of the talent pool at a particular position versus others, etc...

2. Top pass rushing efficient teams have players that based on ability alone at one point were thought to be the top or top 3 prospect at their position. There are of course a few exceptions, but in the case of the top pass rush teams over the last 5 year sample size...that exception doesn't really hold true.

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All 3 teams (Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Jacksonville) have multiple players with college production/talent at the top of the pass rush....but let's look into the specifics.

Pittsburgh Steelers

TJ Watt: Final Season College Production: 63 tckls; 15.5 TFLs; 11.5 Sacks. He was the consensus number 1, 34OLB pass rusher on the every teams draft board.Fell to the end of the first due to SCHEME FIT reasons as few teams play the 34-defense. Pass rushers like Myles Garrett, Takk Mckinley, Taco Charlton, Derek Barnett, Charles Harris, and Solomon Thomas all went ahead of him because they were 43 players. He was clearly a top pass rushing talent, one of the better performers at the combine, and had the production and hand fighting technique on the field to match. He's selected much higher if it wasn't for the 34OLB not being the top need by teams above him. Therefore, it was easy to say he was a top 35 talent, and a top 2 player at his position as he was the consensus number 1, 34 OLB

Cameron Heyward: Final Season College Production: 48 tckls; 13 TFLs; 3.5 Sacks. Again, he only fell because he was a scheme fit issue being a 34 DE who played out of position according to most at OSU although he was still considered one of the top talents in the draft and the clear number 1, 34 DE.

Bud Dupree: Final Season College Production: 74 tckls; 15 TFLs; 9.5 Sacks: Selected 22nd overall, Dupree had excellent college production, and unbelievable athletic testing numbers and was the 3rd pass rushing talent selected only behind Vic Beasley and Dante Fowler (he's on the list). So, again he was a consensus top 35 player and in the top 3 of his position in the draft.

We'll leave Vince Williams out of the discussion as he's not an outside Pass Rusher, but a converted ILB that took over for Shazier...he did however have college production.

Pittsburgh Summary: All 3 of their top outside pass rushers were literally either the top pass rusher at their position (Heyward, Watt) or a top 3 pass rusher at their position with crazy production (Bud Dupree) coming out of the draft.

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Carolina Panthers

Julius Peppers: Consensus top player at his DE position. Consensus top 2 player in the entire draft. Age doesn't matter.

Mario Addison: Final Season College Production at Troy: 47 tckls; 15.5 TFLs; 10.5 Sacks. Addison was a JUCO transfer who fully started 1 year. In that 1 year at Troy he put up numbers only matched/rivaled by the likes of Demarcus Ware. He fell in the draft because of serious fears off the field that lead him to the JUCO route and for fear of him being a 1-year wonder. He also didn't interview well. Talent and especially college production wise he was thought to be a top 3-4 pass rusher at his position. Without the off the field stuff, in the 2011 draft he would've probably been a 2nd round pick as projected by scouts at the time.

Wes Horton: Final Season College Production at Troy: 43 tckls; 6.5 TFLs; 5.5 Sacks. Self-made player that had good sack and pass rush production during his time at USC. Going undrafted he was a miss by evaluatiors that thought he had limited athleticism.

Kawaun Short: Final Season College Production at Purdue:  43 tckls; 17 TFLs; 7 Sacks. Carolina uses short on the outside and brings Peppers up the middle to devastating effects. Short was a consensus top 3 DLineman at his position with pass rushing versatility in the 2013 draft that only fell to the top of the 2nd round of the draft due to bad combine interviews and questions about character. Again, he was a top 3 player at his position coming out of the draft.

Carolina Summary: They have 2 top pass rushing talents (1-Peppers a consensus top player; the other-Addison possesses top talent but had character concerns make him go undrafted) and they have a steady pass rusher that matched his pro production to his college production. Carolina's pass rush efficiency is generated through additional depth up the middleHe's the exception to the rule much like a Cameron Wake type. You don'

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Dante Fowler: Final Season College Production at Purdue: 60 tckls; 15 TFLs; 8.5 Sacks. Went Number 3 overall behind Jameis Winston at 1 and Marcus Mariota at 2. Was the consensus top DE in the draft whom unfortunately suffered a rookie minicamp torn ACL and had to battle back to get back to his pre-injury form. Now, he's healthy and a devastating pass rusher.

Yannick Ngakou: Final Season College Production at Purdue: 37 tckls; 14.5 TFLs; 13 Sacks. Was one of the country's leading sack leaders in a year (2016) thought at pre-draft time to be one of the deepest draft for pass rushing talent (i.e, Joey Bosa, Shaq Lawson, Deforest Buckner, Emmanuel Ogbah, Noah Spence, Kevin Dodd, Jihad Ward, Carl Nassib). He fell to the top of the 3rd round because out of all the DEs selected only he was thought to be a tweener as he was too small to play 43DE and not athletically fluid enough and too stiff to play 34OLB. Therefore, he slipped in the draft mostly due to perceived scheme fit...even still he was considered one of the top pass rushers in the draft and would easily be the third best pass rusher in this draft after Chubb and Davenport.

Calais Campbell: Final Season College Production at Purdue: 50 tckls; 12.5 TFLs; 6.5 Sacks after a 55 tckls; 20.5 TFLs; 10.5 Sacks crazy good season. He was a consensus top 3 DE outside pass rusher that year, but was thought to be too tight hipped and had knee immobility so he instead went at the top of the 2nd round.

JAX Summary: Every single on of their pass rushers was a top talent in terms of talent and production.

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But let's ask ourselves: Who are the top talents at DE outside rusher this year and are they thought to be top talents and/or did they match the production and on field prowess of the previously discussed guys.

1. Bradley Chubb: Production-Yes. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---Yes...Top Pass rushing talent.

2. Marcus Davenport: Production-Yes. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---Yes...thought to be a top 20 prospect, but may be best in the 34.

3. Harold Landry: Production-Question Marks after down year. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---Question Marks after showing limitations despite being injured. Has strength and explosiveness limitations on tape. Considered to be a top 50 talent but not a consensus top 25.

4. Duke Ejiofor: Production-Yes. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No. Not Cosidered a top 50 talent in the scouting community as he has an inconsistent motor. Thought to be a 4th or 5th round prospect

5. Arden Key: Production-In one year, but No overall. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No...thought to be a 34 player and has other off field con

6. Sam Hubbard: Production-Meh...Not top production. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No, thought to be limited. 4.98 and 5.00 40yard dash and 1.78, 10 yard have people dropping him down the boards.

7. Dorace Armstrong Jr.: Production-No. On-Field Ability== Impact Starter & Top 3 at Position---No

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What is true of a past draft isn't necessarilytrue of this one.

You can randomly sample drafts of various years to make the case that you can find impact QBs in later rounds therefore don't take a QB early....you can randomly sample draft results of various years to make the case that you can find impact DEs, CBs, and so on and so on positional groups as to suggest that it's okay to pass on a certain position early.

 

It's a fallacy to suggest that because there were pass rushers available in past drafts in later rounds, that means that they are available in this draft.

The talent simply isn't there. Even in the late round gems it's thought to not be there.

If one thing is true. In order to have a top pass rush defense...most defenses at the top of DVOA pass rush efficiency have multiple players (3 or more) that were considered not only top 3 at their position coming out in the draft, but were consensus top impact starter types based on college production and on-field dominance/play traits.

[dawgpound1816]

There's more than enough room for everyone to ride the Chubb train. 

[Bonanza23]

Haha @Mind Character can’t quit us ?

This was shorter than your last hiatus. 

[TheeRealDeal]

24 minutes ago, dawgpound1816 said:

There's more than enough room for everyone to ride the Chubb train. 

I don't know about riding any kind of Chubb let alone a Chubb train, but if that is your thing I won't judge.

[bruceb]

28 minutes ago, dawgpound1816 said:

There's more than enough room for everyone to ride the Chubb train. 

Just say "No!" to Chubb.

[matt27j]

Adding Chubb provides a pass rush that probably hasn't been draft replicated since strahan, osi, and tuck. So it could be very interesting and successful with all the nickel situations where we could have 3 de's on the field a good portion of the game.